Pakistan's Insatiable Appetite For Energy

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan's consumption of oil and gas has rapidly grown over the last 5 years, an indication of the nation's accelerating economic growth. Pakistan is among the fastest growing LNG markets, according to Shell 2017 LNG report.

Pakistan Oil Consumption in Barrels Per Day. Source: CEIC.com

Oil consumption in Pakistan has shot up about 50% from 400,000 barrels per day in 2012 to nearly 600,000 barrels per day in 2017. During the same period, Pakistan's gas consumption has risen from 3.5 billion cubic feet per day to nearly 4 billion cubic feet per day, according to British Petroleum data.

Pakistan is among the fastest growing LNG markets, according to Shell 2017 LNG report.  The country has suffered a crippling energy shortage in recent years as demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day. Recent LNG imports are beginning to make a dent in Pakistan's ongoing energy crisis and helping to boost economic growth. Current global oversupply and low LNG prices are helping customers get better terms on contracts.

Pakistan Gas Consumption in Billions of Cubic Feet Per Day. Source:...

Since the middle of the 18th century, the Industrial Revolution has transformed the world. Energy has become the life-blood of modern economies. Energy-hungry machines are now doing more and more of the work at much higher levels of productivity than humans and animals who did it in pre-industrial era.

Every modern, industrial society in history has gone through a 20-year period where there were extremely large investments in the energy sector, and availability of ample electricity made the transition from a privilege of an urban elite to something every family would have. It seems that Pakistan is beginning to recognize it. If Pakistan wishes to join the industrialized world, it will have to continue to do this by having a comprehensive energy policy and making large investments in the power sector. Failure to do so would condemn Pakistanis to a life of poverty and backwardness.

Pakistan is heavily dependent on energy imports to drive its economy. These energy imports put severe strain on the country's balance of payments and forces it to repeatedly seek IMF bailouts.

Pakistan needs to develop export orientation for its economy and invest more in its export-oriented industries to earn the hard currencies it needs for essential imports including oil and gas. At the same time, Pakistan is stepping up its domestic oil and gas exploration efforts.  American energy giant Exxon-Mobil has joined the offshore oil and gas exploration efforts started by Oil and Gas Development Corporation (OGDC), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) and Italian energy giant ENI.

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[Riaz Haq]

With Pakistan turning out to be one of the fastest growing LNG markets since it first started importing in 2015 -- imports rose to 8.4 million mt in 2019 from 6.8 million mt in 2018 -- there was an urgent need to speed up import capacity expansions, which have been planned in order to absorb incremental inflows, they added.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natu...

"Pakistan represents a market that could take advantage of the low spot price environment and import more LNG to feed its growing natural gas demand. However, imports are close to capacity and have limited ability to grow significantly," said Jeff Moore, manager, Asian LNG Analytics, at Platts Analytics.

"The underlying driver for LNG consumption growth in Pakistan has been a declining base of domestic production along with new import infrastructure, as the country has brought in two FSRUs, both at Port Qasim," Moore said.

The benchmark for spot Asian LNG prices, JKM, has fallen more than 40% from the beginning of 2019 to about $5.20/MMBtu by the end of the year due to a wave of new supply from Australia and the US, and slowing demand growth in China.

Meanwhile, the DES West India assessment, which is a relatively better reflection of prices in the Indian subcontinent, was lower by more than 41% from the beginning of last year at $4.80/MMBtu toward the end of 2019.

The spot Brent slope, which is obtained by dividing the Brent crude oil price by the spot LNG price, also declined last year, prompting Pakistan LNG Ltd. to issue fresh tenders to seek cargoes at lower Brent slope prices. The average spot Brent slope also dropped, to 8.70% in 2019 from 13.70% in 2018, Platts data showed.

"Although Pakistan represents an important market with an appetite to increase imports given the expectation for low JKM prices this year, the scope to grow imports sharply is limited in 2020," Moore said.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Natural Gas: Consumption was reported at 3.978 billion Cub ft/Day in Dec 2020

This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.302 billion Cub ft/Day for Dec 2019

Bangladesh's natural gas consumption for 2020 was 2.937 billion cubic feet per day in Dec 2020

India's natural gas consumption for 2020 was 5.75 billion cubic feet per day in Dec 2020

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/pakistan/natural-gas-consumption

[Riaz Haq]

Top 10 countries with lowest energy consumption per capita
Outside Africa, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines stand out for low energy security


https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/data-trends/top-10-countrie...


Outside Africa, fast-growing Asia economies such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines use the least primary energy per capita, according to the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

People in East Africa, Central Africa and Western Africa use 4.7, 5.7 and 7.2 gigajoules of primary energy per capita per year, respectively, the review notes. Primary energy is that classed as an energy source that has not been subject to any human-engineered conversion processes.

While energy use in these regions matches typically subdued levels of economic development, that is not the case in Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines — countries with few indigenous energy commodities where energy infrastructure has struggled to keep up with the accelerating economic growth of the past years.

Per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh stands at 9.9 gigajoules, BP data shows — the lowest of any country outside Africa. Pakistan consumes 17.1 gigajoules and the Philippines consumes 17.6 gigajoules. By contrast, the average for countries in the OECD is 167.9 gigajoules, while stands at 56.2 gigajoules in non-OECD countries.

Bangladesh has resorted to Russian technology and financing to build the country’s first nuclear plant and thus limit the country’s recurrent power outages, while Pakistan, which already has six nuclear power plants in operation, has been developing liquified natural gas terminals to bump up imports of LNG.

After Sri Lanka, with 17.8 gigajoules, and the Southern Africa region (excluding South Africa) with 23.5 gigajoules, the top 10 is rounded out by two other emerging economic powerhouses — India and Morocco.

India, with 23.3 gigajoules per capita, continues to generate most of the primary energy it through coal and oil. The country is the world’s second-largest consumer of coal after China, although its first renewable energy generation has also come online in the past few years.

Morocco, with 25.6 gigajoules per capita, gets most of its primary energy from oil, although the country boasts the world’s biggest thermal solar power plant, and its renewable energy potential is now being assessed for major cross-border energy generation projects.