Pakistan Among Fastest Growing LNG Markets in the World

Pakistan joined the list of LNG importers last year and promptly became one of the world's fastest growing LNG markets, according to Shell 2017 LNG report.  The South Asian nation has suffered a crippling energy shortage as demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day. Recent LNG imports are beginning to make a dent in Pakistan's ongoing energy crisis and helping to boost economic growth. Current global oversupply and low LNG prices are helping customers get better terms on contracts.

Pakistan Gas Market Forecast. Source: Platts

Global LNG Market:

Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan together imported 13.9 million tons of LNG, more than the combined increase of 11.9 million tons by the most populous nations of China and India.

The biggest increase in LNG exports in 2016 came from Australia, where exports increased by 15 MT to a total of 44.3 MT. It was also a significant year for the USA, after 2.9 MT of LNG was delivered from the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana. Qatar remained the world’s largest LNG exporting country, accounting for around 30% of global trade of 258 MT by exporting 77.2 MT, according to International Gas Union report 2017.

LNG Demand in Pakistan:

Pakistan has been a big consumer of natural gas since the discovery of Sui gas fields in Balochistan in 1952. Sui now accounts for just 6% of natural gas domestically produced in Pakistan. The rest of the 94% comes from gas fields in other parts of Pakistan. Among the various provinces, Sindh is now the biggest producer of natural gas. Demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day.

Pakistan is currently importing 2 million MT (96 billion cubic feet) of LNG and negotiating to secure an additional 3 million MT in long-term contracts by the end of 2017 to supply its new LNG floating terminal due to arrive by December, according to M. Adnan Gilani, chief operating officer with Pakistan LNG Ltd, as reported by Platts.

New supply agreements will increase Pakistan's total LNG contracts total to more than 11 million MT per year, as the country aims to resolve a decade-long energy crisis, driven by growing gas consumption and falling domestic production.

In addition to government-to-government contracts, there are also private and public companies negotiating deals to import LNG. For example, Karachi-based power generator K-Electric is seeking supply for its 900-megawatt, $1-billion Port Qasim Power Station which will start-up in two phases, in mid-2018 and the end of 2019, according to Reuters news agency.

In the longer term, Pakistan aims to allocate a quarter of its LNG purchases to the spot and short-term markets, Pakistan LNG Ltd's Adnan Gilani told Platts. "Initially, our goal is to solve our energy crisis. We have long-term downstream commitments, so we do not mind going to mid-to-long term initially," he said. "Over the course of time, we will be able to cater to our variable non-cyclical demand... and allocate about a quarter of our portfolio to spot and short term. PLL is currently purchasing four cargoes per month on a short-term basis as it awaits the start of new term volumes.

By 2022, Pakistan expects to import 30 million MT (1,440 billion cubic feet) of LNG, according to Adnan Gilani of PLL.

LNG Infrastructure:

There is one LNG terminal currently operational at Port Qasim and 5 more are planned in Pakistan over the next two years to deal with rising volume of LNG imports. New pipelines are planned by South Sui Gas and Northern Sui Gas companies to transmit regasified LNG to various parts of the country to meet demand.

Summary:

Pakistan is among the fastest growing LNG markets, according to Shell 2017 LNG report.  The country has suffered a crippling energy shortage in recent years as demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day. Recent LNG imports are beginning to make a dent in Pakistan's ongoing energy crisis and helping to boost economic growth. Current global oversupply and low LNG prices are helping customers get better terms on contracts.

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Comment by Riaz Haq on December 16, 2020 at 5:00pm

#Pakistan to Start Building 1,100 Km #LNG Pipeline with #Russia in July. Pakistan has become one of the top LNG markets in recent years. It’s running 2 terminals at capacity to meet winter demand, with 12 cargoes secured for December and 11 for January https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-16/pakistan-to-star...

Pakistan will start building a 1,100 kilometer (684 miles) pipeline in July with Russia that will allow the South Asian nation to operate more liquefied natural gas terminals.

The South Asian nation will have a majority share of 51% to 74% in the project, while Russia will own the remainder, Nadeem Babar, petroleum adviser to the prime minister, said in an interview on Dec. 14. Pakistan’s gas distribution companies Sui Southern Gas Co. and Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Ltd., which have started acquiring land for the pipeline, will be a part of the project, while a Russian consortium will lead construction.

Pakistan has become one of the top emerging markets for the super-chilled fuel in recent years as domestic gas production has plateaued, forcing the nation to import cargoes. The nation has also auctioned a record 20 oil and gas blocks to encourage exploration activity, with bids expected by mid-January, said Babar.

Pakistan, which imported its first cargo five years ago, currently has two LNG terminals. It’s running the two terminals at capacity to meet peak winter demand, with 12 cargoes secured for December and 11 for January, Babar said. Two more LNG terminals, Energas and Mitsubishi’s Tabeer Energy, are expected to start in the next few years.

Pakistan has LNG deals for 700 million cubic feet a day and Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government will decide if the nation needs another medium-term LNG contract for five years after reviewing demand from power generators, the biggest consumers of the fuel, in the next three months, said Babar.

The nation has also decided that it will only import cleaner Euro-5 diesel from January after doing the same for gasoline earlier this year. Besides imports, Pakistan also plans to add 150 million cubic feet a day of domestic gas output this month, including 50 mmcfd from the Mari gas field, Babar said.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 3, 2021 at 4:58pm

Slow roll-out of #Pakistan’s 1,100 km #LNG pipeline in the midst of demand surge. #Singapore's LNG Easy to invest $200 million in fuel network with #trucks/#rails in #Pakistan. Supplies will go to off-grid industries such as #textile mills. #gas #energy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-01/pakistan-to-begi...

While Pakistan’s dependence on overseas shipments of the fuel have ballooned since imports began in 2015, insufficient infrastructure has made it difficult to deliver the fuel to more remote parts of the country. The government and Russia are planning a domestic pipeline that connects Pakistan’s southern LNG terminals to the energy-hungry north, but the project has been delayed several years and won’t begin construction until later this year.

Door-to-door deliveries of LNG via trucks has increasingly allowed importers to leapfrog infrastructure bottlenecks and has helped boost demand for the fuel globally. The network could help places like the land-locked Punjab prefecture, where major industries such as fertilizer, textile, cement, face gas shortages.

LNG Easy, which operates in Myanmar, Singapore and Malaysia, will begin transporting LNG from Pakistan’s ports from August. PetroChina Co. will be the main LNG supplier, although the company has also signed purchase agreements with Trafigura and Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Berhad and is in talks with QatarGas to buy LNG fixed to the price of crude oil, said Hamid.

The company sees additional growth opportunities across South and Southeast Asia, in countries including Bangladesh, Vietnam and the Philippines, according to its website.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 20, 2021 at 7:47am

#Pakistan & #Russia agree to jointly finance/build 1,100 Km #gas pipeline from #Karachi to #Lahore. It'll cost $2.5-$3 billion & complete by 2023. Pak will own 76%, Russia 24%. Carrying capacity: 700-800 mmfcd, upgradabale to 2,000 mmfcd with compressors. https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/pakistan-ru...


Pakistan and Russia have signed an agreement for the construction of about 1,100-km gas pipeline from Port Qasim in Karachi to Lahore at an estimated cost of USD 2.5-3 billion by the end of 2023, according to a media report on Friday.

The Heads of Terms (HoTs) of shareholders' agreement was signed on Thursday after four days of talks, the Dawn News reported. The two sides also signed minutes of the third meeting of the Russia-Pakistan Joint Technical Committee (JTC) for implementation of the Pakstream Gas Pipeline Project commonly known as North-South Gas project.


The two sides agreed over 74:26 per cent shareholding in the special purpose vehicle (SPV) for the project. This envisages both put option' and call option' to Russian side which means its entities can move out of the project if it is not found feasible or increase its shareholding to 49 per cent if it is able to provide attractive financing arrangements acceptable to Pakistan. In any case, Pakistani entities will maintain majority shareholding.

The Russian side will arrange funding for foreign exchange components through suppliers' credit or typical project financing to cover imported items like steel, consultancies, pipelines and related products and materials not available in Pakistan. The concession agreement for the pipeline will remain effective for 25-30 years. The pipeline size was agreed at 56-inch diameter to cater for next 30-40 years of energy needs in the country that will ensure 700-800 million cubic feet per day (mmfcd) of free gas flow which can go up to 2,000mmcfd with compressors.

The next steps will be the signing shareholders' agreement, financial agreement, gas transportation agreement and lenders agreement during which time the Russian side will complete the front end engineering design (FEED) and the Pakistani side will arrange dollar financing of local currency component against Rs321bn worth of Gas Infrastructure Development Cess.

The two sides committed to expeditiously implement the project to meet the emerging energy security scenario of Pakistan to ensure investment commitments by coming LNG terminals, the Pakistani daily reported.

At the signing ceremony in Islamabad, Pakistani side was led by Petroleum Division Secretary Arshad Mahmood while Deputy Director of Department of Foreign Economic Cooperation and Fuel Markets Development of Russian Ministry of Energy Alexander Tolparov led the visiting team.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 29, 2021 at 11:18am

#Pakistan Forced to Pay Very High Prices for #LNG to Avoid Blackouts. Pakistan bought 4 cargoes for September delivery at around $15 per mmbtu. Earlier, govt scrapped a tender for September in hopes of lower prices later. #energy #PTI https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/pakistan-forced-...

Nation’s gamble that spot prices would fall fails to pay off
Global supply crunch has boosted rates from Europe to the U.S.

Cash-strapped Pakistan’s bet that liquefied natural gas prices would go down has failed, forcing the South Asian nation to pay more than ever for the power plant fuel or risk blackouts.

Pakistan LNG this week bought four cargoes for September delivery at around $15 per million British thermal units, the highest since the nation began imports in 2015, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The importer scrapped a tender for September cargoes that closed earlier this month in a gamble that prices would fall.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 10, 2021 at 8:03am

#LNG prices surge as energy transition-driven demand outstrips supply. It’s especially bad news for poorer nations like #Pakistan and #Bangladesh that reworked entire #energy policies on the premise that the fuel’s price would be lower for longer. http://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/8/6/natural-gas-prices-surge-as-e...

The era of cheap natural gas is over, giving way to an age of far more costly energy that will create ripple effects across the global economy.

Natural gas, used to generate electricity and heat homes, was abundant and cheap during much of the last decade amid a boom in supply from the U.S. to Australia. That came crashing to a halt this year as demand drastically outpaced new supply. European gas rates reached a record this week, while deliveries of the liquefied fuel to Asia are near an all-time high for this time of year.

With few other options, the world is expected to depend more on cleaner-burning gas as a replacement to coal to help achieve near-term green goals. But as producers curb investments into new supply amid calls from climate-conscious investors and governments, it is becoming apparent that expensive energy is here to stay.


Already, there are signs around the world that supplies will fall short:

Beyond a massive expansion in Qatar, few new LNG export projects have been cleared since the start of 2020.
End-users have been less willing to take equity stakes in upstream projects or sign long-term supply deals due to uncertainty surrounding government-led efforts to reduce emissions.
U.S. shale drillers aren’t immediately responding with additional production, as they’re under pressure from investors to curb spending and avoid creating another glut, while key pipeline projects struggle to move forward.
“No matter how you look at it, gas will be the transition fuel for decades to come as major economies are committed to reach carbon emission targets,” said Chris Weafer, chief executive officer of Moscow-based Macro-Advisory Ltd. “The price of gas is more likely to stay elevated over the medium-term and to rise over the longer-term.”

Strong Consumption

By 2024, demand is forecast to jump 7% from pre-Covid-19 levels, according to the International Energy Agency. Looking further out, the appetite for liquefied natural gas is expected to grow by 3.4% a year through 2035, outpacing other fossil fuels, according to an analysis by McKinsey & Co.

Surging natural gas prices means it will be costlier to power factories or produce petrochemicals, rattling every corner of the global economy and fueling inflation fears. For consumers, it will bring higher monthly energy and gas utility bills. It will cost more to power a washing machine, take a hot shower and cook dinner.

It’s especially bad news for poorer nations like Pakistan and Bangladesh that reworked entire energy policies on the premise that the fuel’s price would be lower for longer.

European natural gas rates have surged more than 1,000% from a record low in May 2020 due to the pandemic, while Asian LNG rates have jumped about six-fold in the last year. Even prices in the U.S., where the shale revolution has significantly boosted production of the fuel, have rallied to the highest level for this time of year in a decade.

While there are several one-off factors that have pushed gas prices higher, such as supply disruptions, the global economic rebound and a lull in new LNG export plants, there is a growing consensus that the world is facing a structural shift, driven by the energy transition.

A decade ago, the IEA declared that the world may be entering a “golden age” of natural gas demand growth due to historic expansion of low-cost supply. Indeed, between 2009 and 2020, global gas consumption surged by 30% as utilities and industries took advantage of booming output.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 18, 2021 at 1:26pm

Global #energy prices surging! #Pakistan & #Bangladesh are among developing nations in #Asia that can no longer afford to pay soaring #LNG prices, raising the risk of power rationing or the burning of dirtier alternatives this winter. #gas #inflation https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-01/developing-asia-...

Bangladesh’s state-run Petrobangla plans to stop buying spot LNG cargoes for the rest of the year after a quadrupling of prices over the past year to a seasonal high. Pakistan has repeatedly canceled and reissued LNG purchase tenders in an effort to get better offer prices, without avail.

The evolution marks a stark turnaround after developing Asia helped drive a surge in trading of the super-chilled fuel and built LNG import strategies on the premise that spot shipments would be abundant and cheap. Unlike richer counterparts in the region that can pass on this year’s historic price rally to end-users, some governments may need to rethink LNG procurement strategies and reduce exposure to the volatile spot market, switch to dirtier fuels such as coal or oil or even curb electricity production.

“With spot prices so high and with relatively low development, these countries may not be able to afford the current sky-high prices for gas on the global market,” said Ron Smith, senior oil and gas analyst at BCS Global Markets. A return of power rationing this winter “seems quite possible” for Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Nations in South Asia have the most potential to take advantage of cheaper fuel oil to offset the rise in spot LNG prices through this winter, said Felix Booth, head of LNG at energy-intelligence company Vortexa.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 24, 2022 at 6:40am

#Pakistan #LNG gets single bid from #Qatar #Energy at $39.80/mmbtu for July cargo, highest ever. Pakistan has increased reliance on LNG for #electricity generation, but is facing widespread power outages as sup-ply of LNG remains unreliable & #expensive.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-pakistan-lng-gets-single-155843872...

ISLAMABAD, June 23 (Reuters) - Pakistan LNG Ltd (PLL) received a single bid from Qatar Energy at $39.80/mmbtu for an LNG import tender seeking a cargo in the July 30-31 window, an industry source said on Thursday.

The source said no bids were received for three other deliveries sought in July, which was later confirmed by documents uploaded on PLL's website.

The source added that PLL had decided not to pick up the costly bid.

A spokesman for Pakistan's power ministry, under which PLL operates, did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Pakistan had sought four cargoes from international suppliers during the windows of July 3-4, 8-9, 25-26 and 30-31.

Pakistan unsuccessfully tapped the spot market earlier this month for an extra July cargo, with two tenders not returning valid bids.

In recent years Pakistan has increased reliance on LNG for electricity generation, but is facing widespread power outages as procurement of the chilled fuel remains unreliable and expensive.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 9, 2023 at 4:11pm

10,707 km pipelines being laid to reinforce gas transmission network in Pakistan

https://pakobserver.net/10707-km-pipelines-being-laid-to-reinforce-...

The two state-owned companies, SNGPL and SSGC, are in process of laying almost 10,707-kilometer pipelines to reinforce gas transmission networks in their operational areas across the country during the current fiscal year.


The Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) would place 9,605 kilometers and Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) 1,102 transmission and distribution pipelines in their respective areas during 2022-23 aimed at improving the efficiency of the commodity supply to domestic, industrial, and commercial consumers.

The companies would collectively spend funds amounting to Rs 113.899 billion on the upgradation of the gas transmission and distribution system. “The SNGP and SSGC have planned to invest Rs 27,669 million on transmission projects, Rs 77,484 million on distribution projects, and Rs 8,746 million on other projects bringing the total investment of Rs 113,899 million during the fiscal year 2022-23,” according to an official document available with APP.


The available statistics indicated that Pakistan has an extensive gas network with more than 13,513 KM transmission, 155,679 KM distribution, and 41,231 KM service gas pipelines for cater to the requirement of millions of consumers.

The companies are also executing at least three strategic projects to supply gas to two Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and an industrial park in their respective areas to boost industrial production.—APP

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 13, 2023 at 9:53pm

State-owned Pakistan LNG (PLL) has announced its intention to secure nine LNG cargoes during the months of October, December, January 2024, and February 2024.

https://www.naturalgasworld.com/pakistan-floats-two-tenders-for-spo...


---------------

The federal government issued two tenders seeking spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes for the first time in nearly a year on Tuesday, while also announcing a deal that will see Azerbaijan provide the country with one LNG cargo per month.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1759531

Dependent on gas for power generation and running short of foreign exchange to pay for imports, the country has struggled to procure spot cargoes of LNG after global prices spiked last year following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, leaving it to face widespread power outages.

But Asian spot LNG prices this year have eased from record highs of $70 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) hit in August, and are now trading below $10.

Pakistan LNG, a government subsidiary that procures LNG from the international market, has one tender seeking six cargoes on a delivered-ex-ship (DES) basis to Port Qasim in Karachi in October and December, according to the tenders posted online.



The delivery windows are October 5-6, 20-21 and 31, and December 7-8, 13-14 and 24-25. The tender will close on June 20.

Pakistan LNG’s second tender seeks three cargoes, also on DES basis to Port Qasim, for delivery windows of January 3-4, 28-29 and February 23-24. The second tender closes on July 14.

Pakistan LNG last issued a tender seeking 10 spot cargoes in July 2022, but received no offers.

Separately on Tuesday, Minister of State for Petroleum Musadik Malik told a news conference that Azerbaijan will supply an LNG cargo every month to Pakistan at a “cheaper price”.

He did not share details on the supply deal, but said that a contract had already been signed with Azerbaijan and that it will “start soon”.

Pakistan has two long-term supply deals with Qatar, one signed in 2016 for 3.75 million metric tons of LNG a year, and another signed in 2021 for 3m metric tons a year.

It also has an annual portfolio contract with ENI for 0.75m metric tons a year.

In 2022, Pakistan’s imports of LNG slowed to 6.93m metric tons for the year, down from 8.23m metric tons in 2021, according to data from data analytics group Kpler.

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