Pakistan's $8.2 Billion Rail Upgrade to Link with China, Russia, Central Asia & Europe

Pakistan government has approved an $ 8.2 billion project to upgrade the 1,872 km Karachi - Peshawar rail track, bridges, tunnels, and culverts, according to International Railway Journal.

The new track will support increased axle load of up to 25 tons, up from 22.8 tons which is now the norm in South Asian countries. The higher axle load capacity will allow heavier freight trains carrying more freight per train for greater trade overland.

China will provide 85% of the financing for the project. It will be done in two phases, with the first due for completion in December 2017 and the second in 2021.

It will be part of an international rail link that will connect Pakistan with China,  Russia, Central Asia and Europe. It will extend south from the city of Kashgar in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region in Western China to Pakistan's deep-sea Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea, according to Zhang Chunlin, director of Xinjiang's regional development and reform commission.

Source: China Daily

A study for the plans for this international rail link was first presented in 2014 at a two-day International Seminar on the Silk Road Economic Belt in Urumqi, Xinjiang's capital, according to China Daily.

"The 1,800-kilometer China-Pakistan railway is planned to also pass through Pakistan's capital of Islamabad and Karachi," Zhang Chunlin said. "Although the cost of constructing the railway is expected to be high due to the hostile environment and complicated geographic conditions, the study of the (international rail link) project has already started," Zhang said. "China and Pakistan will co-fund the railway construction. Building oil and gas pipelines between Gwadar Port and China is also on the agenda," Zhang added.

The Pak-China link announcement was part of the discussion on China's broader effort to revive the historic Silk Route by building three main corridors through southern, central and northern Xinjiang to connect China with Russia, Europe and Pakistan. The Silk Road Economic Belt International seminar which concluded on Friday in Urumqi, Xinjinag was jointly sponsored by the State Council Information Office, China International Publishing Group (CIPG), China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and Xinjiang Academy of Social Sciences.

In a 2013 report, China's State-owned Xinhua News Agency articulated China's motivation to expand land trade in addition to building its navy to protect its sea trade. Here's what it said:

“As a global economic power, China has a tremendous number of economic sea lanes to protect. China is justified to develop its military capabilities to safeguard its sovereignty and protect its vast interests around the world."

The Xinhua report has for the first time shed light on China's growing concerns with US pivot to Asia which could threaten China's international trade and its economic lifeline of energy and other natural resources it needs to sustain and grow its economy. This concern has been further reinforced by the following:

1. Frequent US statements to "check" China's rise.  For example, former US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said in a 2011 address to the Naval Postgraduate School in California: "We try everything we can to cooperate with these rising powers and to work with them, but to make sure at the same time that they do not threaten stability in the world, to be able to project our power, to be able to say to the world that we continue to be a force to be reckoned with." He added that "we continue to confront rising powers in the world - China, India, Brazil, Russia, countries that we need to cooperate with. We need to hopefully work with. But in the end, we also need to make sure do not threaten the stability of the world."

Source: The Guardian

2. Chinese strategists see a long chain of islands from Japan in the north, all the way down to Australia, all United States allies, all potential controlling chokepoints that could  block Chinese sea lanes and cripple its economy, business and industry.

Karakoram Highway-World's Highest Paved International Road at 15000 ft.

Chinese Premier's emphasis on "connectivity and maritime sectors" and "China-Pakistan economic corridor project" is mainly driven by their paranoia about the US intentions to "check China's rise" It is intended to establish greater maritime presence at Gwadar, located close to the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and  to build land routes (motorways, rail links, pipelines)  from the Persian Gulf through Pakistan to Western China. This is China's insurance to continue trade with West Asia and the Middle East in case of hostilities with the United States and its allies in Asia.

Pakistan's Gawadar Port- located 400 Km from the Strait of Hormuz

As to the benefits for Pakistanis, expanded trade and the Chinese investment in "connectivity and maritime sectors" and "China-Pakistan economic corridor project" will help build infrastructure, stimulate Pakistan's economy and create millions of badly needed jobs.

Clearly, China-Pakistan ties have now become much more strategic than the US-Pakistan ties, particularly since 2011 because, as American Journalist Mark Mazzetti of New York Times put it, the  Obama administration's heavy handed policies "turned Pakistan against the United States". A similar view is offered by a former State Department official Vali Nasr in his book "The Dispensable Nation".

Related Links:

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Views: 1610

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 4, 2023 at 4:42pm

Pakistan taps Chinese credit for railway upgrade despite debt crisis
Islamabad says $10bn revamp of colonial-era line is essential even as it faces risk of default and forex reserves plunge

https://www.ft.com/content/44c26d5c-97d2-4181-b5a4-9ef66ce776db

Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan’s planning minister, said the ML1 upgrade was vital to keep trains running and an example of the transformative work that Chinese credit had made possible.

“If we do not undertake this project, in a couple of years Pakistan will lose its railway logistics,” Iqbal told the Financial Times.

“The whole railway system will break down, this main line will break down. It will be very risky to run commercial operations on this track. It is no longer a choice. It is an imperative.”


-----



Iqbal, who oversees Pakistan’s involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s international infrastructure scheme, said it would take six to nine years to complete the ML1 upgrade. The work will include replacing track, modernising signalling, converting level crossings into underpasses or flyovers and building fences to stop cattle crossing the line.

The planning minister said the project would proceed in phases “to make it more manageable”, with an initial cost of $3bn. The loan from China would be repayable over 20 to 25 years and would be “concessional”, he said, without providing further details.

Chinese lending to Pakistan goes back years, part of an effort to forge economic and military ties that will help to counter their mutual rival India. The ML1 upgrade is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a BRI centrepiece with an estimated total cost of $60bn.

The CPEC also includes Chinese development of a deep-sea port at Gwadar in south-western Pakistan, among other projects. Beijing is separately supplying Pakistan’s military with eight submarines and advanced J-10 C fighter jets.

A western diplomat in Islamabad said that for such projects to have continued even as Beijing saw growing financial distress in BRI recipient countries pointed to the importance it put on ties with Pakistan.

“Even if the rest [of BRI] lags behind, China wants to stay the course with Pakistan,” the diplomat said, adding that the relationship had “important military aspects developed over the long term”.

The projects — and Chinese financing — have also stoked domestic tensions. Police in Gwadar last month imposed emergency measures and dismantled a protest camp that had obstructed operations at the port with demands, among others, for Chinese nationals to leave.


Projects such as ML1 have also fuelled analyst concerns over whether excessive Chinese lending is exacerbating strains on Pakistan’s precarious finances. Chinese state lenders are together among the largest creditors to Islamabad, accounting for about $30bn of its outstanding debt.

----
Sakib Sherani of advisory firm Macro Economic Insights said it was unfair to single out China’s role in Pakistan’s debt woes, with the largest repayments in the current financial year actually due to multilateral lenders.

But Chinese loans tend to carry higher interest rates than multilateral or other bilateral creditors, according to the AidData research lab at William & Mary college in the US. Chinese annual interest is typically 3-4 per cent compared with 1-2 per cent from OECD lenders, AidData said.



Even as it taps Beijing for the ML1 project, Pakistan is looking elsewhere for funds to help stabilise its shrinking reserves. The finance ministry is in talks with the IMF to secure the next tranche of a $7bn assistance programme, and has said it will approach “friendly” countries such as Saudi Arabia for more loans.

Sharif’s government is betting it can steady the economy in time for parliamentary elections that must be held before the end of this year.

Iqbal said he was confident the country would pull through. “Pakistan is facing economic [and] fiscal difficulties, but it is not in the range that it is a default economy yet. We are managing very prudently.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 4, 2023 at 8:03pm

ML-1, KCR (Karachi Circular Railway) upgrade projects to start in March

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1026277-ml-1-kcr-upgrade-projects-...

He (Ambassador Non Rong) recalled that under the CPEC, 192,000 jobs were created, 6000MW of electricity was generated, 510 km of highway was constructed and 886 km of transmission was set up, which laid a solid foundation for Pakistan’s socio-economic development. “In fact, Pakistan’s trade surplus of agricultural products is expected to exceed a record high of $1 billion in 2022,” the ambassador said.

The Chinese sources said the ML-1 is the largest infrastructure project of CPEC worth $6.86 billion. The project involves the up-gradation and dualization of ML-1 to increase the operating speed from the current 60 km/h and 105 km/h to a proposed 160 km/h. The project also involves the establishment of a dry port near Havelian. ML-1, the Karachi to Peshawar line, is one of four main railway lines in Pakistan, operated and maintained by Pakistan Railways. The line begins from Karachi City Station or Kiamari station and ends at Peshawar Cantonment Station. The total length of this railway line is 1,687 kilometers. There are 184 railway stations from Kiamari to Peshawar Cantonment on this line. The line serves as the main passenger and freight line of the country. 75 percent of the country’s cargo and passenger traffic uses the ML-1. The existing timeline for the completion of ML-1 extends to December 2024. Under the umbrella of this project, level crossing will be converted into flyovers or underpasses so that the speed can be increased by getting rid of the obstacles.

The project could not be started during the PTI government due to China’s concerns over debt repayment plan, the sources pointed out. ML-I railway line project is very important to achieve connectivity between Gwadar (Pakistan) and Kashgar (China) through a train track that will provide the easiest and safest way to transport oil between China and the Middle East, saving China travel costs. The railway line upgrade will provide faster travel facilities to the people of Pakistan and commercial benefits like bringing raw materials to the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and faster delivery of finished goods to remote areas of the country as well Gwadar port. Another great benefit is that coal will be delivered for fuel to the power plants through the railway track, which will also generate good revenue for the railways. Due to unnecessary delays, the cost of this historic project has increased. The Imran’s PTI government failed to convince the IMF and the Chinese government to start the project. Another reason for the increase is the recent floods in Pakistan, which has destroyed the railway lines of most parts of the country. As soon as the new government was formed in April, 2022, Pakistan’s Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal restarted the discussion with the Chinese authorities on revival of the project.

The revived KCR operation is intended to become an inter-regional public transit system in Karachi, with an aim to connect the city centre with several industrial and commercial districts within the city and the outlying localities. In May 2017, the then government approved Rs27.9 billion ($120 million) restoration package for the KCR. However, delays and disputes with the Sindh provincial government ultimately led to cancellation of the funding. KCR would be constructed with the cost of Rs294 billion and used by 500,000 passengers/day, which would increase to 1 million in later years. KCR will have 250 modern driverless electric bullet trains, which would run 17-hours a day throughout a week. The KCR project would be run by the Sindh government through Karachi Urban Transport Corporation (KUTC) and likely to be completed by 2025.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 27, 2023 at 8:23am

#Chinese Gov't Commissioned Study: #China-#Pakistan #railway ‘worth it’ at estimated US$58 billion. It should proceed because of its #strategic significance. It has the potential to reshape #trade and #geopolitics across the Eurasian continent. #CPEC https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3218413/china-pakis...

Belt and Road Initiative’s most expensive transport infrastructure project ‘has potential’ to reshape trade and geopolitics
The rail link is part of a broader plan to revive ancient Silk Road connections and reduce reliance on Western-dominated routes

The China-Pakistan railway – China’s largest Belt and Road Initiative transport project – will cost an estimated 400 billion yuan (US$57.7 billion), but should proceed because of its strategic significance, a government-commissioned feasibility study has found.
The proposed railway, connecting Pakistan’s port of Gwadar to Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, was assessed by scientists from the state-owned China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group Co Ltd.
The team, led by the institute’s deputy director of capital operations Zhang Ling, said the project was the belt and road plan’s most expensive transport infrastructure.
Despite the cost, the project had the potential to reshape trade and geopolitics across the Eurasian continent and should be supported, the team said in a report published by the Chinese-language journal Railway Transport and Economy in April.
“The government and financial institutions [in China] should provide strong support, increase coordination and collaboration among relevant domestic departments, strive for the injection of support funds and provide strong policy support and guarantees for the construction of this project,” they said.
The institute is one of the largest of its kind in China and has been involved in many major railway projects at home and internationally, including Indonesia’s Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail line.
The 3,000km (1,860-mile) railway will link China’s western regions with the Arabian Sea, bypassing the Strait of Malacca and reducing dependence on the South China Sea.
Connections with other transport networks – including in Iran and Turkey – would also provide a more direct route to Europe for Chinese goods, while Pakistan is forecast to get a much-needed boost from the improved infrastructure and easier trade with China.
The scheme is a key component of Beijing’s broader belt and road plan to promote economic cooperation and connectivity among the countries along the ancient Silk Road trade routes.
Previous studies by Chinese government researchers have suggested the infrastructure initiative could have significant geopolitical implications, helping to shift the balance of power away from traditional Western-dominated trade routes.
As well as encouraging a more multipolar world order, the belt and road plan could also help to promote economic development and stability in countries along the route by creating jobs, boosting infrastructure investment and increasing trade, the studies said.
Most belt and road transport infrastructure construction projects had received a significant proportion of funding from the host countries, and the scale of investment was much smaller, Zhang and his colleagues noted.
For example, total investment in Kenya’s Mombasa-Nairobi standard gauge railway was US$3.8 billion, with China providing 5 per cent of the funding and Kenya paying for the rest.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 27, 2023 at 8:24am

#Chinese Gov't Commissioned Study: #China-#Pakistan #railway ‘worth it’ at estimated US$58 billion. It should proceed because of its #strategic significance. It has the potential to reshape #trade and #geopolitics across the Eurasian continent. #CPEC https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3218413/china-pakis...


The project connects the port city to the Kenyan capital and is part of a larger plan to link East African countries by rail. Similarly, China contributed 30 per cent of the US$4 billion funding for the Addis Ababa-Djibouti rail line in Ethiopia.
China covered 75 per cent of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway’s costs of US$5.9 billion, with Indonesian state-owned enterprises providing the remainder.
But Pakistan is unable to make a similar contribution. Its GDP last year was US$370 billion – just six times the estimated cost of the project.
“Due to energy shortages, poor investment environment and fiscal deficits,


Pakistan’s economic growth rate has come under pressure,” the team said.
“In terms of railway investment and construction, Pakistan is unable to provide sufficient financial and material support and mainly relies on Chinese enterprises for investment and construction.”

One reason for the hefty cost is the mountainous and geologically complex terrain along the route. There could be technical challenges to overcome in the construction and operation of the railway, the researchers said.
The project also required supporting infrastructure – such as ports and logistics facilities – that might not be immediately available in Pakistan, they said.

The study said Pakistan’s labour policies could be unpredictable, which could potentially affect the railway’s construction and operating costs.
The team also noted that Pakistan had experienced security challenges in recent years, including in its western region where the railway will pass through. Balochistan province, for instance, has been plagued by separatist violence for decades.

This could potentially disrupt construction and operation of the railway and pose a risk to Chinese workers and investments, the researchers said.
The study also pointed out the railway’s potential impact on neighbouring countries, such as India. With each country having its own priorities and interests, there could be disagreements or delays in decision-making related to the project, it said.
Zhang’s team suggested that a build and transfer (BT) model would provide the best investment and financing strategy for the project.
They considered BT against build-operate-transfer, public-private partnerships, and the engineering, procurement, construction mode that are becoming more popular in belt and road projects.


In the BT model, a contractor would be responsible for designing, building and financing the railway, with payment on completion and ownership transferred to the government or other commissioning entity.
The researchers said BT would allow the risks associated with the railway’s construction and operation to be allocated more effectively between China and Pakistan, potentially reducing the financial risks for both parties.
By ensuring that ownership of the railway was transferred to Pakistan, BT could also help to build trust between China and Pakistan by showing China’s commitment to supporting Pakistan’s long-term economic development, they said.
China and Pakistan have been talking for years about the railway, a crucial part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that was launched in 2015 and aims to connect Gwadar port to Xinjiang through a network of roads, railways and pipelines.
The researchers said the China-Pakistan relationship was complex, with both countries having different priorities and interests.
Negotiating agreements related to financing, labour policies, and other issues would require careful consideration of each country’s priorities and interests, they said.
In conclusion, Zhang and his team said their recommendation could help to move negotiations forward.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 7, 2023 at 9:25am

EIU (Economic Intelligence Unit)report

China Going Global Investment Index 2023
This year’s edition of the China Going Global Investment Index ranks 80 economies across nearly 200 indicators to identify opportunities and risk for Chinese firms and investors looking to expand globally.

A decade since Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched in 2013, Chinese firms have become formidable investors globally, and the flow of overseas investment is set to increase over the next decade.

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