US Missile Sanctions: Are Pakistanis Really Developing ICBMs?

[Riaz Haq]

The outgoing Biden Administration has announced additional new sanctions against Pakistani entities working on the nation's missile program. The latest round of sanctions includes the Islamabad-based National Development Complex (NDC) and three Karachi-based organizations: Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International and Rockside Enterprise. Explaining the decision, US Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer accused Islamabad of having developed "increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors.”  “Candidly, it’s hard for us to see Pakistan’s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States,” Finer added, as reported by Reuters news agency.

"They don't acknowledge our concerns. They tell us we are biased," said the second U.S. official, adding that Pakistani officials have wrongly implied that U.S. sanctions on their missile program are intended "to handicap their ability to defend against India."

Finer said senior U.S. officials, including himself, who he said repeatedly have raised concerns about the missile program with top Pakistani officials. Washington and Islamabad, he noted, had been "long-time partners" on development, counter-terrorism and security. "That makes us question even more why Pakistan will be motivated to develop a capability that could be used against us. If those trends continue, Finer said, "Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States." The number of nuclear-armed states with missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland "is very small and they tend to be adversarial," he continued, naming Russia, North Korea and China, according to Reuters. 

"So, candidly, it's hard for us to see Pakistan's actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States," Finer said.

His speech came a day after Washington announced a new round of sanctions related to Pakistan's ballistic missile development program, including for the first time against the state-run defense agency that oversees the program.

Pakistan has denounced the new US sanctions on the country’s ballistic missile program as “discriminatory” and accused the Biden administration of putting the region’s peace and security at risk.  Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday warned in a statement that the sanctions “have dangerous implications for strategic stability of our region and beyond”. 

U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on X that the U.S. had “been clear and consistent about our concerns” over such weapons proliferation and that it would “continue to engage constructively with Pakistan on these issues.”  Pakistani officials have cast doubt on US allegations that targeted businesses were involved in weapons proliferation because previous sanctions “were based on mere doubts and suspicion without any evidence whatsoever”, according to media reports. The sanctions are also opposed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the party of Pakistan’s imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan. 

A.K. Chishti, a Pakistani analyst, believes that the US sanctions are aimed at disrupting Pakistan's efforts to build a second-strike capability. "The US sanctions against Pakistani firms, particularly those tied to Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) and other defense contractors, appear to be a calculated attempt to slow down Pakistan's nuclear missile advancements", says Chishti.  "These companies are central to Pakistan’s missile program, including efforts to develop submarine-launched nuclear platforms, which are critical to second-strike capability", he wrote in an article published by The Wire Pakistan. 

My own view is that Pakistan is developing heavier rocket engines for satellite launch capability to compete with India in space. Space is becoming increasingly important for national security and Pakistan has a lot of catching up to do to remain relevant. 

It also appears that the events of the past year in the Middle East have reinforced the view among the peoples of many developing countries, including Pakistan, that the only law that matters in today's world is the "Law of the Jungle" in which "Might is Right". This is causing them to take their national security much more seriously than in the past. They are all looking to find ways to deter against wanton aggression and to defend themselves in the event of arracks. 

Will the US pressure on Pakistan work? The following two quotes answer this question:

1.  "The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India". US Ambassador Anne Patterson, September 23, 2009

2. “Pakistan knows it can outstare the West."  Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Pervez Hoodbhoy, May 15, 2011

Rabia Akhtar, a visiting scholar at Harvard Kennedy School’s Managing the Atom project, believes that targeting specific entities within Pakistan’s missile development framework ignores its indigenous capabilities. She says that this self-sustained program operates independently of external influences and is not easily swayed by coercive tactics. She also contends that such measures fail to address broader regional security dynamics while neglecting the provocations that drive Pakistan’s deterrence posture.

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[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Begins 2-Year Term At UN Security Council, To Oppose Reform Sought By India



https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakistan-gets-un-security-council-s...

Pakistan will also preside over the UN Security council in July. This will allow Islamabad to set the United Nations Security Council agenda. It also secured a seat on the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al Qaeda Sanctions Committee, which is responsible for designating terrorists and imposing sanctions.

Pakistan today replaced Japan for a seat at the world's topmost diplomatic body - the UN Security Council. Islamabad will occupy one of the two seats from the Asia-Pacific region (South Korea being the other) for two years starting today.

Pakistan will also preside over the council in July when it will be the Chair. This will allow Islamabad to set the United Nations Security Council agenda. In addition to this, Islamabad finds itself holding another crucial post after it secured a seat on the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al Qaeda Sanctions Committee, which is responsible for designating individuals and groups as terrorists and imposing sanctions.

This new two-year tenure as a non-permanent member would be Pakistan's eighth term at the top UN body. It comes at a significant time, when central and west Asia is experiencing a political and humanitarian crises - the war in Gaza, crisis in Lebanon, heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, the regime change in Syria, and the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, to name a few.

Europe too is reeling under severe economic strain of the years-long Russia-Ukraine war. In East Asia, there are serious concerns over China's threat to Taiwan and North Korea's military rise while South Korea is imploding from one of its worst political crises. China also has serious differences with Philippines and Vietnam leading to naval face-offs.

[Riaz Haq]

Explainer: Pakistan's military modernisation programme


By Indian Analyst Sidhant Sibal

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
From the Naval domain to the air domain, a rapid programme of modernisation is taking place. Islamabad's natural raison d'être remains India, but also increasingly angry Taliban rulers in Afghanistan, who see Pakistan's air attacks as a violation of sovereignty.

https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/explainer-pakistans-military-mod...

Pakistan's military remains a key component of the country's politics, but even as the economy remains fragile, one thing that is not halted is the country's military modernisation. From the naval domain to the air domain, a rapid programme of modernisation is taking place. Islamabad's natural raison d'être remains India, but also increasingly angry Taliban rulers in Afghanistan, who see Pakistan's air attacks as a violation of sovereignty. Let's understand what kind of modernisation Pakistan is undergoing and its impact on the country:

Naval Domain
Pakistan plans to transform its Navy into a 50-ship force by the next decade, including 20 major warships. This ambitious fleet expansion hinges on partnerships with China, Turkiye, and Romania. Pakistan has initiated the modernisation of its fleet with foreign shipbuilders like Damen Shipyards in Romania for offshore Patrol vessels. The navy is set to acquire advanced Hangor-class submarines from China, MILGEM-class corvettes from Turkiye, and the first-ever indigenous Jinnah-class frigates.

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Air Domain

As reported by Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, Pakistan is reportedly planning to acquire 40 Chinese J-35 stealth fighter jets, which marks a major step in its military aviation capabilities. J35 are fifth-generation stealth fighter jets developed by China's Shenyang Aircraft Corporation. These fighters are intended to replace Pakistan's ageing fleet of American F-16s and French Mirage fighters. While there's no official confirmation from China, the speculation around this deal has been significant.


China Partnership
Pakistan and China have close ties, something that is well known. While India and China ties have seen positive momentum, it does not mean Islamabad and Beijing will forgo military partnership or ties which are "higher than mountains and deeper than oceans". China has provided support for the modernisation of both the Pakistani Air Force and the Naval forces. As Admiral Tripathi noted at the presser, "These ships and submarines are either being made in China or being made with Chinese support." China has obvious interests in making the Pakistan Navy strong given its interest in Gwadar port. The port could connect the western part of China with the Indian Ocean overland Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

Pakistan's defence diplomacy
Apart from modernisation, Pakistan has been actively involved in international naval exercises. In February this year, Pakistan will be hosting AMAN-25, the 9th such naval exercise off the coast of Karachi. In 2023, the exercises saw the participation of ships from China, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and the USA. The aim is to project Pakistan's naval strength in the Indian Ocean.


Missile programme and sanctions
Pakistan increasingly plans to modernise and reform its missile programme which has raised eyebrows not only in the region but also in Washington. The United States has imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on entities involved in Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile programme, targeting both Pakistani and Chinese companies. The December 2024 sanctions regime included a Pakistan state-run enterprise, the National Development Complex (NDC) that saw a strong response from Islamabad, which defended its missile program.