US Missile Sanctions: Are Pakistanis Really Developing ICBMs?

[Riaz Haq]

The outgoing Biden Administration has announced additional new sanctions against Pakistani entities working on the nation's missile program. The latest round of sanctions includes the Islamabad-based National Development Complex (NDC) and three Karachi-based organizations: Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International and Rockside Enterprise. Explaining the decision, US Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer accused Islamabad of having developed "increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors.”  “Candidly, it’s hard for us to see Pakistan’s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States,” Finer added, as reported by Reuters news agency.

"They don't acknowledge our concerns. They tell us we are biased," said the second U.S. official, adding that Pakistani officials have wrongly implied that U.S. sanctions on their missile program are intended "to handicap their ability to defend against India."

Finer said senior U.S. officials, including himself, who he said repeatedly have raised concerns about the missile program with top Pakistani officials. Washington and Islamabad, he noted, had been "long-time partners" on development, counter-terrorism and security. "That makes us question even more why Pakistan will be motivated to develop a capability that could be used against us. If those trends continue, Finer said, "Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States." The number of nuclear-armed states with missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland "is very small and they tend to be adversarial," he continued, naming Russia, North Korea and China, according to Reuters. 

"So, candidly, it's hard for us to see Pakistan's actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States," Finer said.

His speech came a day after Washington announced a new round of sanctions related to Pakistan's ballistic missile development program, including for the first time against the state-run defense agency that oversees the program.

Pakistan has denounced the new US sanctions on the country’s ballistic missile program as “discriminatory” and accused the Biden administration of putting the region’s peace and security at risk.  Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday warned in a statement that the sanctions “have dangerous implications for strategic stability of our region and beyond”. 

U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on X that the U.S. had “been clear and consistent about our concerns” over such weapons proliferation and that it would “continue to engage constructively with Pakistan on these issues.”  Pakistani officials have cast doubt on US allegations that targeted businesses were involved in weapons proliferation because previous sanctions “were based on mere doubts and suspicion without any evidence whatsoever”, according to media reports. The sanctions are also opposed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the party of Pakistan’s imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan. 

A.K. Chishti, a Pakistani analyst, believes that the US sanctions are aimed at disrupting Pakistan's efforts to build a second-strike capability. "The US sanctions against Pakistani firms, particularly those tied to Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) and other defense contractors, appear to be a calculated attempt to slow down Pakistan's nuclear missile advancements", says Chishti.  "These companies are central to Pakistan’s missile program, including efforts to develop submarine-launched nuclear platforms, which are critical to second-strike capability", he wrote in an article published by The Wire Pakistan. 

My own view is that Pakistan is developing heavier rocket engines for satellite launch capability to compete with India in space. Space is becoming increasingly important for national security and Pakistan has a lot of catching up to do to remain relevant. 

It also appears that the events of the past year in the Middle East have reinforced the view among the peoples of many developing countries, including Pakistan, that the only law that matters in today's world is the "Law of the Jungle" in which "Might is Right". This is causing them to take their national security much more seriously than in the past. They are all looking to find ways to deter against wanton aggression and to defend themselves in the event of arracks. 

Will the US pressure on Pakistan work? The following two quotes answer this question:

1.  "The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India". US Ambassador Anne Patterson, September 23, 2009

2. “Pakistan knows it can outstare the West."  Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Pervez Hoodbhoy, May 15, 2011

Rabia Akhtar, a visiting scholar at Harvard Kennedy School’s Managing the Atom project, believes that targeting specific entities within Pakistan’s missile development framework ignores its indigenous capabilities. She says that this self-sustained program operates independently of external influences and is not easily swayed by coercive tactics. She also contends that such measures fail to address broader regional security dynamics while neglecting the provocations that drive Pakistan’s deterrence posture.

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[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan dismisses US official's warning over missile programme as unfounded | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/pakistan-dismiss...

KARACHI, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Pakistan's Foreign Ministry on Saturday dismissed as unfounded and "devoid of rationality" assertions by a senior U.S. official that its missile programme could eventually pose a threat to the United States.

Earlier this week, U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said Pakistan's development of long-range ballistic missiles made it an "emerging threat".

Finer's comments, which came a day after Washington announced a new round of sanctions related to the ballistic missile programme, underscored the deterioration in once-close ties between Washington and Islamabad since the 2021 U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Addressing Finer's remarks, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said the perception of an alleged threat was "unfortunate".

"These allegations are unfounded, devoid of rationality and sense of history," the ministry added in a statement.

The ministry said its strategic capabilities were solely for defending its sovereignty and maintaining regional stability, and should not be perceived as a threat to any other country.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s reported J-35 deal shows Chinese stealth fighter is ready for global market: analysts | South China Morning Post

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3291826/pakistans-...

Pakistan’s reported procurement of J-35 jets from China signals that the stealth fighter is ready to enter the international market, potentially helping to finance development of more advanced weaponry for the People’s Liberation Army, analysts say.

The sale would mark Beijing’s first export of fifth-generation jets to a foreign ally and is expected to recalibrate regional dynamics, particularly in relation to Pakistan’s rival, India.

Pakistani broadcaster 24 News HD reported last week that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) had approved the purchase of 40 of the aircraft, which are expected to be delivered within two years to replace the country’s ageing fleet of American F-16s and French Mirage fighters.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s reported J-35 deal shows Chinese stealth fighter is ready for global market: analysts | South China Morning Post

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3291826/pakistans-...

Pakistan’s reported procurement of J-35 jets from China signals that the stealth fighter is ready to enter the international market, potentially helping to finance development of more advanced weaponry for the People’s Liberation Army, analysts say.

The sale would mark Beijing’s first export of fifth-generation jets to a foreign ally and is expected to recalibrate regional dynamics, particularly in relation to Pakistan’s rival, India.

Pakistani broadcaster 24 News HD reported last week that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) had approved the purchase of 40 of the aircraft, which are expected to be delivered within two years to replace the country’s ageing fleet of American F-16s and French Mirage fighters.

[Riaz Haq]

Pravin Sawhney
@PravinSawhney
Since conventional war deterrence is far more important that nuclear deterrence between India & Pakistan, IAF should seriously consider SU-57 aircraft.
PAF has edge over IAF in:
1. Electronic Warfare (it demonstrated this in 2019 Balakot. And since 2021, it has been working on Cognitive AI)
2. Pak CAS, ACM Sidhu announced in Jan that his force was ready to induct fifth generation J-35A (air force version) into service. Reports say PAF to get 40 J-35A. It already has J-10C & JF-17
3. It is fair to assume that J-35A will come with advanced weapons & sensors. With this acquisition PAF will have an advanced stealth fighter, what IAF lacks.
4. India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft, I understand, will not be available on time. There are too many issues.
Hope Russia brings SU-57 to Aero-India in Feb 2025 in Bangalore!

https://x.com/PravinSawhney/status/1870668314344657331

[Riaz Haq]

White House Says Pakistan Is Developing Long-Range Missile Capable of Hitting the U.S.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/white-house-says-pak...

U.S. revealed intelligence after Islamabad rebuffed confidential discussions about its missile program

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The development of a long-range missile that could target the U.S. would take several years and perhaps as long as a decade, a senior Biden administration official (Deputy NSA Jon Finer) said.

“We’re trying to build this pressure to get ahead of this problem because we don’t want Pakistan to go down this road so far that we are dealing with something that is more imminent,” the administration official added.

Pakistan has long had a close military relationship with China, which also views India as an adversary and has supplied the Pakistani military with arms and assistance for its missile program.

Finer said the U.S. is seeking a cooperative relationship with Pakistan and has worked with Islamabad on counterterrorism over the years. Despite ups and downs in relations, the U.S. has sought to preserve channels of communication, in part because of Pakistan’s position in the region and its status as a nuclear armed state.

The U.S. focus on countering China and on improving relations with India has strained ties in recent years with Islamabad, which has become less important to Washington since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

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He (Finer) declined to say why Pakistan might want to develop such a longer-range missile. But some analysts said that Islamabad might be seeking a way to deter Washington from assisting India if another war erupted between Pakistan and India.

Pakistan might also be seeking to raise the potential risks of a U.S. effort to forcibly disarm Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal, though U.S. officials said Washington has no intention to do so.

Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is slowly increasing and is currently about 170 warheads, according to Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists, a nonprofit that looks at security issues.

[Riaz Haq]

Amid IDF (Israeli Military) rethink, some see air-launched missile doctrine moving to more solid ground | The Times of Israel

The air force has long promoted versatile missile systems fired from jets, but critics say new threats require a shift to ground-based arms that are faster and more cost-effective

https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-idf-rethink-some-see-air-launche...

Israel’s defense and military procurement budget is expected to increase significantly over the next decade in a process that will require an open, professional, and transparent debate on the country’s doctrines for fighting and defense.

Among the areas of discussion will be the evolution of Israel’s long-range attack systems, including ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

Currently, Israel’s defensive strategy appears to favor the use of air power, as seen in retaliatory Israeli strikes against Iran in October and against Yemen this month.

Preparing a long-range retaliatory strike with fighter jets is a complex process requiring international-level coordination, solutions for refueling, and the operation of communication, rescue, and intelligence systems. This preparation can take significant time.

Israel’s October 26 strike on Iranian military sites came weeks after Iran lobbed hundreds of ballistic missiles toward the Jewish state, with Israel under immense diplomatic and security pressure.

In contrast, had Israel employed precision ballistic missiles, the response could have occurred within approximately one hour, according to experts pushing for increased use of long-range arms. Using cruise missiles could have reduced response times to three or four hours, they claimed.

The reason Israel did not use ground-based ballistic or cruise missiles is that there do not appear to be many in its military arsenal, apart from the Jericho system, which foreign reports claim is designated for other strategic missions.

Instead, the military appears to be championing the development of air-based attack systems. US intelligence documents that leaked in October allegedly described Israel’s plans to attack Iran, including the potential use of ballistic missiles launched from fighter jets.

Among the weapons mentioned were missiles dubbed “Golden Horizon” and “ROCKS,” thought to refer to domestically produced air-launched ballistic missiles, or ALBMs.

The leak marked the first known mention of the Golden Horizon system, but speculation has linked it to either the Air LORA, an ALBM made by Israel Aerospace Industries based on a ground-based missile with a range of over 400 kilometers (250 miles), or the Blue Sparrow ALBM made by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems with a range of some 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles).

ROCKS, also developed by Rafael, is another ALBM; its range is approximately 300 kilometers (188 miles).

There is also a ship-launched version of the LORA, with a slightly shorter range.

On November 1, 2024, internet users spotted an Israeli Sa’ar 5-class missile boat equipped with LORA missile launchers sailing through the Suez Canal toward the Red Sea.

[Riaz Haq]

‘Net advantage for India’? What US sanctions mean for Pakistan’s relevance in Washington | South China Morning Post

Recent sanctions are further evidence of Pakistan’s relative decline in importance in the US, analysts note

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3292048/net-advanta...


The United States’ latest sanctions targeting Pakistan-based entities for their involvement in the country’s ballistic missile programme have bolstered India’s strategic position and underscored Islamabad’s fading relevance in Washington, analysts say.

The US sanctioned four entities on Wednesday, including the state-owned National Development Complex, that it said were contributing to the programme. A statement by the US Department of State said the entities were “proliferators of weapons of mass destruction”.

“Today, the United States is designating four entities that are contributing to Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme. We have been clear and consistent about our concerns, and we will continue to engage constructively with Pakistan on these issues,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller posted on X.



Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, said the sanctions would benefit India by effectively limiting Pakistan’s ability to expand its ballistic missile arsenal, a development that New Delhi viewed as a strategic gain.

“Any attempt to weaken the growth of Pakistan’s missile development programme or any step to diminish the growth of any aspect of Pakistani proliferation programmes would be seen as a good thing in India, given its deep rivalry with Pakistan,” Kugelman said.


“From the zero-sum perspective, seeing its rival getting sanctioned is going to be a net advantage for India.”

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s Nuclear Strategy Shifts as U.S. Realigns Ties in Asia - The Wall Street Journal.

Political experts say a missile that can reach beyond India fits with Pakistan’s latest thinking on deterrence

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/pakistans-nuclear-strategy-shifts-as...

“In that situation, Pakistan’s hard-liners, Pakistan’s hawks, think they need to think beyond just today and tomorrow,” said Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistan ambassador to the U.S. and a scholar at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington, D.C. “They have to think about what happens if there is a global conflict in which India is aligned with the U.S. and Pakistan is considered as a partner of China.”

Pakistan on Tuesday rejected Biden administration officials’ assertions that it is developing ballistic-missile technology that could eventually give it the capability to strike the U.S., but geopolitical experts say long-range weapons would be in step with Islamabad’s shifting national security concerns as India and the U.S. draw closer.

The U.S. last week imposed sanctions on four entities involved in Pakistan’s missile program, including the National Development Complex, which it said oversees Pakistan’s development of ballistic missiles. Deputy national security adviser Jon Finer said the sanctions were imposed after Washington and Islamabad failed to make progress in confidential talks.

U.S. intelligence points to efforts by Pakistan to develop equipment to test large rocket motors, according to White House officials. “Just looking at a map and looking at ranges, you know, we believe that this is fundamentally focused on us,” said Finer at an event sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Arms Control Association in Washington on Thursday.

Pakistan hasn’t publicly acknowledged developing long-range or intercontinental ballistic missiles. Its longest-range publicly known missile is the Shaheen-III, tested in 2021, with a range of about 1,700 miles.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday said that there was no justification for the sanctions and that the country’s nuclear program is only for defense.

Over the weekend, the country’s foreign ministry called the claim that it has hostile intentions toward the U.S. “irrational” and said that Pakistan maintains the right to develop capabilities to deal with evolving threats.

For decades, Pakistan’s strategic national security planning has focused largely on India, which it views as a threat. Political experts say that there has been a subtle change in its posture over the past decade.

The U.S. and Pakistan were unlikely but close partners in a relationship shaped largely by U.S. objectives in Afghanistan during the Cold War, and after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S. But U.S. frustrations grew over what Washington said was Pakistan’s unofficial support for Taliban insurgents, and more recently over the country’s ties with China, which has bankrolled billions of dollars of infrastructure in the country.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan stunned by US fears over its missiles, assesses impact on South Asia

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3292254/pakistan-st...

Washington’s assessment comes as Pakistan aims to balance its relations with the US and China amid fears of collateral damage

Pakistan has been blindsided by Washington’s designation of the entity overseeing the South Asian country’s ballistic missile development as a prospective threat to US national security, officials and analysts say.
The Pakistani foreign ministry said the US move to impose economic sanctions over the Rawalpindi-based National Development Complex on December 16 was an attempt by Washington to tilt the balance of power in South Asia in favour of India. The two South Asian countries have fought several wars since partition in 1947.

US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said last Thursday that Pakistan’s missile capabilities were an “emerging threat … fundamentally focused on us”, triggering concerns in Islamabad about Washington’s intentions.

[Riaz Haq]

Trump Threatens to Take Over Canada, Panama Canal, Greenland

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-canada-pa...


President-elect Donald Trump has once again repeated his desires for U.S. territorial expansion. In a message delivered on Christmas Day, Trump took aim at the Panama Canal and Greenland, while also addressing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau directly.

“Merry Christmas to all, including to the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating the Panama Canal,” the president-elect began in a Truth Social post, before claiming “38,000 people” died during the waterway’s construction. (BBC previously fact checked that the number was closer to 300.) He continued, writing: “United States puts in Billions of Dollars in ‘repair’ money, but will have absolutely nothing to say about ‘anything.’”

Trump then mocked Trudeau, referring to him as the “Governor” of Canada, and once again floated the idea of the country becoming the “51st State,” while promising its “Taxes would be cut by more than 60%, their businesses would immediately double in size, and they would be militarily protected like no other Country anywhere in the World.”

The president-elect also reiterated his previous intention to bring Greenland under American control, writing that the territory, which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, “is needed by the United States for National Security purposes and, who want the U.S. to be there, and we will!”

Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede made clear on Monday that the territory was not for sale. “Greenland is ours,” the prime minister said in a statement. “We are not for sale and will never be for sale. We must not lose our years-long struggle for freedom.”

However, the Danish prime minister’s office issued a separate statementsaying that the government is “looking forward to welcoming the new American ambassador. And the Government is looking forward to working with the new administration.”

On Monday, the Danish government later announced a huge boost in defense spending for Greenland, per the BBC.

Trump also took the opportunity to deliver another holiday message on Wednesday, urging Hockey Hall of Famer Wayne Gretzky — who joinedTrump in Mar-a-Lago after his election win in November — to run for prime minister of Canada. “I just left Wayne Gretzky, ‘The Great One’ as he is known in Ice Hockey circles,” Trump wrote in another Truth Social post. “I said, ‘Wayne, why don’t you run for Prime Minister of Canada, soon to be known as the Governor of Canada – You would win easily, you wouldn’t even have to campaign.'”