Ukraine War: Time For India To Rethink its Military Doctrine Modeled On Russia's?

[Riaz Haq]

India's Russian-equipped and trained military is watching with great concern Russia's losses in the Ukraine war. Moscow has lost 20,000 soldiers, nearly 500 main battle tanks and a large warship so far, according to media reports. Ukraine's use of Turkish drones, US-made anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) Javelins and Ukrainian anti-ship Neptune missiles has taken a heavy toll on the Russian Army and Navy. It is notable that India's Cold Start Doctrine against Pakistan is modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG).   

Russian Influence On Indian Military Doctrine. Source: Air Universi...

Russian Influence on Indian Military Doctrine:

It is well known that the Indian Army relies on Russian tanks, artillery, rockets, and ammunition. The Indian Navy uses Russian ships, submarines and missiles and the Russian Su-30 MKI forms the backbone of the Indian Air Force. Like Russia, the Indian military doctrine is based on deploying large platforms (tanks, artillery, ships and fighter-bombers) with massive firepower.  Here's an excerpt of an article by Dr. Vipin Narang, an Indian-American analyst, on the subject: 

"In terms of doctrine and strategy, although it may be difficult to trace direct influence and lineage between Russia and India, there are several pieces in India’s conventional and nuclear strategy that at least mirror Russia’s behavior. On the conventional side, the core formation in the quick-strike concept known as “Cold Start” or “proactive strategy options” was modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG). The idea was to have a formation that could be rapidly assembled from tank and armored divisions that could break through reinforced defenses—NATO for Russia, and Pakistan’s I and II Corps in the plains and desert sectors for India.

"On the nuclear side, India is currently seized with the same dilemma as the Soviet Union was during the Cold War: both NATO and Pakistan threaten battlefield nuclear weapons against conventional thrusts (India, at least, presumably would be retaliating following a Pakistan-backed provocation). While both states refined their conventional concept of operations, there may have also been corresponding adjustments to their nuclear strategies. It was long believed that, in response to NATO threats to use nuclear weapons first on the battlefield, the Soviet Union had strong preemptive counterforce elements in its strategy to try to at least disarm the United States of its strategic nuclear weapons for damage limitation. It is increasingly evident that at least some serious Indian officials are interested in developing the same sort of option: preemptive counterforce against Pakistan’s strategic nuclear forces, both for damage limitation and to reopen India’s conventional superiority. It is no surprise perhaps, then, that India chose to go ahead with acquiring Russia’s S-400 missile and air defense system, despite the threat of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions from the United States: the S-400 is key to India’s damage limitation strategy, capable of potentially intercepting residual ballistic and cruise missiles that a counterforce strike might miss". 

Pakistani Military Official in Ukraine. Source: New York Times

Turkish Drones: 

Turkish Bayraktar TB2 has been highly effective in destroying Russian tanks and armor in Ukraine. It is playing a key role in Ukraine's counter offensives against Russia's invasion. It is proving so effective that "Ukrainian forces are singing its praises, literally", according to a CNN report. 

Indian Army has nearly 6,000 tanks of Russian origin. These tanks are just as vulnerable to drone and anti-tank missiles as the Russian tanks that perished in Ukraine. 

Pakistan has developed Baktar Shikan, a second-generation man-portable anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system which uses optical aiming, IR tracking, remotely controlled and wire transmitted guidance signals. It can also be mounted on attack helicopters and Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs). Its long range, penetration power and a powerful anti-jamming capability form a potent defense against armored targets.

Pakistan is also reported to have already acquired Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones recently. It was displayed in the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23, 2022, along with other military equipment acquired recently by the Pakistani defense forces. 

Anti-Ship Missiles:

Ukraine claims that its Neptune anti-ship missiles hit and sank Moskva in Black Sea.  It was a large 10,000-ton guided missile cruiser of the Russian Navy that was launching cruise missiles on targets in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. It is the largest warship to have been sunk in action since WWII. 

Vast majority of Indian Navy ships, including its aircraft carriers and missile frigates, are designed, built and equipped by Russians.  

Pakistan recently showcased its anti-ship missile Harbah at DIMDEX 2022, a defense expo in Qatar. It  is a medium range ship launched subsonic cruise missile system capable of targeting sea as well as land targets in “all weather operation” at a maximum range of 280 kilometers, according to a report in NavalNews. The missile is fire and forget type. It relies on inertial navigation technologies with GPS and GLONASS systems. According to its manufacturer GIDS, the missile features the following guidance systems: a DSMAC camera, imaging infrared seeker, and radar seeker.

Summary:

The war in Ukraine is forcing a defense strategy rethink in countries such as India which rely on Russian equipment and training. Hindustan Times has quoted an unnamed former Indian Army Chief as saying:  “War videos available show that the Russian Army has tactical issues in Ukraine war. Tell me, which tank formation goes to war in a single file without air or infantry cover when the opponent is equipped with the best anti-tank guided missile like Javelin or Turkish Bayraktar TB2 missile firing drones? There is question on Russian air supremacy with Ukraine Army armed with shoulder fired Stinger surface to air missiles as well as the night fighting capability of the Russian Air Force.”

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[Riaz Haq]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's decision to replace his defence chief has been seen primarily as an attempt to clean up corruption. But the appointment of Rustem Umerov, a Crimean Tatar and a Muslim, is a signal that Ukraine is serious about returning Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-66704769

Speculations about the replacement of Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine's defence minister since November 2021, have been rife for months.

While personally not accused of any wrongdoing, the man by President Zelensky's side since day one of the Russian full-scale invasion was seen as unable to stop corruption penetrating his ministry.

Military procurement scandals and accusations of bribery against officials at enlistment centres made him damaged goods in the eyes of Ukrainian society, currently in need of a morale boost in the wake of a slower than expected offensive.

This is where Rustem Umerov comes in.

The 41-year-old is a government official who for the past year headed Ukraine's State Property Fund, but is best known for negotiating with Russia and for organising successful prisoner exchanges.

Not a complete unknown but not someone in the media spotlight either, he is a Crimean Tatar born in exile and an active member of this ethnic community, trying to reinstate its cultural identity and its place in the world.

Most importantly for Ukrainians, he has not been accused of corruption, embezzlement or profiteering.

Mr Umerov came into politics in 2019 when he ran for parliament with the reformist "Holos" party, which he later left to become a government official.

Before that he worked in the private sector, first in telecoms and later in investment.

In 2013, he founded a charity programme to help train Ukrainians at the prestigious Stanford University in the US.

But the defining part of his identity are his Crimean Tatar roots and the role they can play in Ukraine's firm intention to return Crimea.

[Riaz Haq]

Army’s Project Udbhav to rediscover ‘Indic heritage of statecraft’ from ancient texts - The Hindu


Project Udbhav to integrate age-old wisdom with modern military pedagogy, the Army says; focus on indigenous military systems, historical and regional texts and kingdoms, thematic and Kautilya studies

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/army-project-to-rediscover-i...

The Indian Army has started an initiative, named Project Udbhav, to rediscover the “profound Indic heritage of statecraft and strategic thoughts” derived from ancient Indian texts of “statecraft, warcraft, diplomacy and grand strategy” in collaboration with the United Service Institution of India, a defence think-tank.

In connection with this, USI will conduct a Military Heritage Festival on October 21 and 22, to acquaint “future thought leaders with the dynamics of comprehensive national security with special emphasis on India’s strategic culture, military heritage, education, modernisation of security forces and Atmanirbhar Bharat,” according to an Army statement.

Bridging past and present
“The project endeavours to explore India’s rich historical narratives in the realms of statecraft and strategic thoughts. It focuses on a broad spectrum including indigenous military systems, historical texts, regional texts and kingdoms, thematic studies, and intricate Kautilya Studies,” the statement said. As part of this process, a panel on September 29 discussed the “evolution of Indian military systems, war fighting and strategic thought”, exploring both current research in the field and the way forward.



The initiative stands testimony to the Army’s recognition of India’s age-old wisdom in statecraft, strategy, diplomacy, and warfare, the statement said, adding that Project Udbhav seeks to bridge the historical and the contemporary. “The goal is to understand the profound depths of indigenous military systems, their evolution, strategies that have been passed down through the ages, and the strategic thought processes that have governed the land for millennia,” it said.

Indigenous vocabulary
The aim of Project Udbhav is not limited to just rediscovering these narratives, but also to develop an “indigenous strategic vocabulary”, which is deeply rooted in India’s “multifaceted philosophical and cultural tapestry”. The overall aim is to integrate age-old wisdom with modern military pedagogy, it stated.

A study to compile Indian stratagems based on ancient texts has been ongoing since 2021, and a book has been released listing 75 aphorisms selected from ancient texts. “The first scholarly outcome of the initiative is the 2022 publication titled, Paramparik Bhartiya Darshan…Ranniti aur Netriyta ke Shashwat Niyam, meant to be read by all ranks of the Indian Army. English translation of the title being Traditional Indian Philosophy…Eternal Rules of Warfare and Leadership,” the Army said.

The September 29 panel discussion included a dialogue on the study of ancient texts from the 4th century BCE to the 8th century CE, with a focus on Kautilya, Kamandaka, and the Kural. By reintroducing these classical teachings into contemporary military and strategic domains, the Army aims to nurture its officers to apply ancient wisdom in modern scenarios and also allow a more profound understanding of international relations and foreign cultures, the statement added.

[Riaz Haq]

Pentagon pushes A.I. research toward lethal autonomous weapons

https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/pentagon-pushes-ai-resear...

There is little dispute among scientists, industry experts and Pentagon officials that the U.S. will within the next few years have fully autonomous lethal weapons. And though officials insist humans will always be in control, experts say advances in data-processing speed and machine-to-machine communications will inevitably relegate people to supervisory roles.

That's especially true if, as expected, lethal weapons are deployed en masse in drone swarms. Many countries are working on them — and neither China, Russia, Iran, India or Pakistan have signed a U.S.-initiated pledge to use military AI responsibly.

It's unclear if the Pentagon is currently formally assessing any fully autonomous lethal weapons system for deployment, as required by a 2012 directive. A Pentagon spokeswoman would not say.

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NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. -- Artificial intelligence employed by the U.S. military has piloted pint-sized surveillance drones in special operations forces' missions and helped Ukraine in its war against Russia. It tracks soldiers' fitness, predicts when Air Force planes need maintenance and helps keep tabs on rivals in space.

Now, the Pentagon is intent on fielding multiple thousands of relatively inexpensive, expendable AI-enabled autonomous vehicles by 2026 to keep pace with China. The ambitious initiative — dubbed Replicator — seeks to "galvanize progress in the too-slow shift of U.S. military innovation to leverage platforms that are small, smart, cheap, and many," Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks said in August.



While its funding is uncertain and details vague, Replicator is expected to accelerate hard decisions on what AI tech is mature and trustworthy enough to deploy - including on weaponized systems.

There is little dispute among scientists, industry experts and Pentagon officials that the U.S. will within the next few years have fully autonomous lethal weapons. And though officials insist humans will always be in control, experts say advances in data-processing speed and machine-to-machine communications will inevitably relegate people to supervisory roles.

That's especially true if, as expected, lethal weapons are deployed en masse in drone swarms. Many countries are working on them — and neither China, Russia, Iran, India or Pakistan have signed a U.S.-initiated pledge to use military AI responsibly.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan tests Fatah-2 missile


https://www.defensenews.com/training-sim/2023/12/27/watch-pakistan-...

The Fatah 2 test “marks another step in Pakistan’s efforts to field multiple precision strike artillery systems with variable ranges to hold adversary targets at risk,” said Frank O’Donnell, a nonresident fellow with the Stimson Center think tank’s South Asia Program and a senior research adviser at the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network.

The fact Pakistan developed the weapon, he added, demonstrates the country has learned lessons from recent or ongoing conflicts.

“When viewed in the context of Pakistan’s parallel efforts to field a similarly diverse arsenal of combat drones, its implementation of certain lessons — which the military feels the Azerbaijan-Armenia and Russia-Ukraine wars have reinforced — become clear,” O’Donnell told Defense News. “They include the advantages of assigning adversary precision ground bombardment missions to relatively low-cost artillery and combat drone systems, preserving manned fighter aircraft for higher-end strike missions and interception of their counterparts.”

India’s S-400 air defense system is likely a key target of the Fatah 2, he added, as Pakistan could fire the weapon as a decoy to create “greater room for a combat drone to strike the S-400 itself in the midst of the bombardment.”

[Riaz Haq]

S-400: Ukraine Overwhelms 'World's Best' Defense Systems; Reports Say At-Least 3 Launchers Destroyed

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/s-400-ukraine-overwhelms-worlds-best-...

Ukraine launched a new attack on the Kerch Strait connecting Crimea and the Russian mainland, reportedly damaging a warship while firing eight Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs).

Before that, towards the end of October, reports also claimed Ukraine destroyed four S-400 systems, possibly using the newly acquired Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) from the United States (US).

The early November attacks on the Kerch Strait specifically displayed the Ukrainian air force’s new tactics meant to overwhelm and divert Russian air defense’s attention, Russian experts have said.

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According to the UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) intelligence update on November 2, Russia has “likely lost at least four long-range Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) launchers to Ukrainian strikes” in the preceding week. It quoted Russian media reports on October 26 reporting the loss of three “SA-21 launchers” in the Luhansk region, with Ukrainian sources reporting “additional Russian air defense losses in Crimea.”


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As for the kind of weapon used to hit the S-400, Business Insider quoted a Russian Telegram channel saying they used the ATACMS, particularly the M39 missile, a 150-kilometer range ‘area weapon’ that scatters 950 M74 submunitions over a vast expanse. Forbes said the M39’s first victims were 21 Russian helicopters in an October 17 strike “in Luhansk and outside Berdyansk in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine.”

Videos on X (formerly Twitter) showed smoke rising from Luhansk, claiming this was an S-400 system. Earlier pictures from October 26 also showed a detached engine of the M39 missile fired from the ATACMS launcher in the settlement of Bilorichensk, Lutuginsky District, temporarily occupied Luhansk Oblast. This proved the use of the missile on Russian targets.

[Riaz Haq]

The Stunning Effectiveness of Houthi Harassment



https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/the-stunning-effectiveness...



A Lesson in 21st Century Sea Control
The Navy’s current presence mission is problematic for 21st-century maritime operations. Missile technology has rapidly accelerated, becoming faster and more capable of reaching across ever-further distances. Maintaining sea control is a taller order than in previous ages.

Confined to the oceans and seas, navies are vulnerable to missiles and threats from land. As technology continues to develop, those distances continue to lengthen. Presence for its own sake exposes naval vessels inside of the weapon engagement zone of modern threats, without necessarily exercising local control of the sea. Indeed, the Houthis have shown exactly how difficult it is to maintain command of the sea in the 21st century. Their small, asymmetric blockade may not be inflicting exorbitant, acute damages to ships, but the simple threat of attack has disturbed one of the globe’s major maritime chokepoints.

Further complicating the matter, the Houthis have utilized cheap drones and ballistic missiles in their efforts. The U.S. Navy has praised the efforts of the USS Carney for its actions in combatting Houthi attacks, but the asymmetric costs cannot be understated. The Carney and other American ships in the region have likely employed SM-2 missiles (at an average cost of $2 million) against improvised drones and missiles that are estimated to cost maybe $2,000 apiece. To put this in perspective, the U.S. Navy is effectively spending a cost differential upward of 1000:1. Nor does the U.S. Navy possess an unlimited supply of SM-2s, which take months if not years to build. Furthermore, the Houthis have shown that they do not even need to sink vessels in order to hold a waterway hostage.

[Riaz Haq]

It looks like Pakistan bought a Chinese spy ship. What does it do?

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2024/03/22/it-looks-like-pakistan...


ISLAMABAD — It appears Pakistan’s Navy has acquired a Chinese-built spy ship, according to open-source intelligence analyst Damien Symon, who reviewed commercially available satellite imagery.

https://x.com/detresfa_/status/1768859481323229565?s=20

The intelligence gathering platform, dubbed Rizwan, is described as an “offshore supply ship” by online shipping monitor MarineTraffic. Pakistan reportedly acquired the vessel from China last year with no fanfare, and the ship was spotted during a stopover in Jakarta, Indonesia, in June 2023, while sailing home.



It is a compact vessel some 87.2 meters long, with two large radar domes on the stern, which along with other sensors point to an intelligence gathering role.

Neither the Pakistan Navy nor the Ministry of Defence Production, which handles military acquisitions, would discuss the ship’s role and capabilities when asked by Defense News.

However, a source with knowledge of Rizwan’s operations, speaking on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the topic, confirmed to Defense News it is an “information gathering ship.” The source declined to provide further details.

Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the Singapore-based Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies think tank, said Rizwan appears to be an affordable and flexible design.

He told Defense News that the ship is based on the hull of an offshore support vessel, which makes “economical sense,” and that “aside from the huge radome that should serve as the electronic intelligence array, the platform might be able to accept varying mission modules if necessary.”

The ship looks to be dimensionally comparable to Norway’s intelligence gathering vessels Eger and Marjata, Sweden’s Artemis, or Germany’s Oste class, he added.

But Koh doubts Rizwan “has the onboard power capacity for telemetry missile tracking, like those found on the Chinese Yuan Wang series.” Instead, he explained, Rizwan is likely focused on gathering electronic and signals intelligence thanks to “onboard signals processing and analysis capabilities.”



He also said Rizwan’s modular configuration could support mission-specific equipment for hydrographic and oceanographic activities such as undersea gliders that can be launched from the stern deck.

Pakistan probably bought Rizwan in response to recent Indian acquisitions, as the two nations are archrivals, Koh added. And due to the relatively small size of Pakistan’s Navy, a dedicated electronic and signals intelligence platform will reduce the intelligence gathering burden on the service’s aircraft, ships and submarines, he explained.

These platforms would have mainly used electronic sensory measures to capture electromagnetic emissions, but “would have little or no capacity at all to process and analyze the signals,” he said. As a dedicated platform, Rizwan could therefore better monitor Indian naval activity “while freeing up the fleet combat assets for their primary duties.”

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Alongside indigenous development as well as acquisition and production programs with the Dutch and Turkish governments, Chinese help is instrumental in advancing elements of Pakistan’s naval modernization plan. Such support is seen in Pakistan’s Hangor II submarines, long-range unmanned combat drones and anti-ship missiles.

“These and other projects will help plug gaps in fleet air defense, battle management, [electronic warfare], and [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] for a potent [anti-access/area denial] capability through three surface task groups operating in the Arabian Sea,” Ahmed said.

[Riaz Haq]

What lies behind arms talks between India’s Modi and Russia’s Putin?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/9/what-lies-behind-arms-talks...

Russia and India have a long history of collaborating on defence. What weapons have they traded before, and what will they discuss this time?


India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, is making his first visit to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine to discuss issues that include defence and weapons deals.

The details of any new arms deals to be struck between the two countries have yet to emerge, but it is understood that Russia’s need for weapons and ammunition for the war in Ukraine is driving talks. Modi is able to offer substantial Indian industrial support to Russia for the Ukraine war in exchange for energy and military technology. The support would be practical but would stop short of India publicly backing Russia’s war effort.

What is the history of India-Russia defence deals?
For the past decade, India has focused on boosting its own military-industrial complex, telling international defence contractors that “Made in India” is a priority and saying technology transfers to Indian companies are a core part of any deal, whether with Russia or somewhere else.

However, India’s armed forces still rely heavily on armoured divisions and 97 percent of its 3,740 tanks are Russian-made.

While India has tried to diversify its defence purchases and partially wean itself off Russian arms, it is mainly Russian companies that are helping India’s defence industries mature at a rapid rate.

A day before Modi left for Moscow this week, Russia’s state export company, Rostec, signed an agreement to manufacture advanced armour-piercing “Mango” tank shells in India for the T-90 tank.

How else have India and Russia cooperated on defence before now?
Their defence cooperation has been substantial. The Brahmos supersonic antiship missile, for instance, was jointly designed by Indian and Russian engineers for the Indian armed forces and first tested in 2001.

Brahmos is the merger of the names of the Brahmaputra and Moskva rivers, signifying the cooperation between the two countries. The missile is fast and powerful and can deliver a 300kg (660lb) warhead at three times the speed of sound with an accuracy down to less than a single metre (3.3ft). It has since been exported to the Philippines.

Russian joint ventures with India also include making 35,000 Kalashnikov AK203 assault rifles for the Indian army, the licensed production of advanced T-90 tanks and Sukhoi Su-30-MKI fourth-generation fighter jets and maintenance facilities for India’s MiG-29 fighter jets. They also collaborate on making the Konkurs antitank guided missile.

What else will Modi and Putin discuss?
Cheap Russian oil has been a mainstay of India’s economy for more than a year. It has been a major recipient of US- and EU-sanctions-busting petroleum shipments.

Nuclear power is also on the cards at the talks in Moscow. Several of India’s nuclear reactors are Russian-built, and talks are ongoing for India to buy both Russian floating and maritime nuclear reactors, useful for remote areas and also for submarines and larger, longer-range naval vessels.

Where will Russia source weapons it needs for war in Ukraine?
Moscow is desperate to fulfil its armed forces’ constant demand for artillery and tank ammunition of all types for its war in Ukraine.

Russia’s armed forces conservatively fire 8,000 rounds per day. At an average cost of $4,000 each, Russia is spending $32 million every single day in its effort to break the deadlock on Ukraine’s battlefields.

[Riaz Haq]

What lies behind arms talks between India’s Modi and Russia’s Putin?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/9/what-lies-behind-arms-talks...

Russia and India have a long history of collaborating on defence. What weapons have they traded before, and what will they discuss this time?

While Russia’s economy is technically on a war footing, Putin has still needed to court North Korea and Vietnam, both operators of Russian-calibre artillery, and both with large domestic munitions factories, especially for the much-needed 152mm shell.

With continued support for Ukraine being questioned in the United States and European and Turkish munitions factories picking up the slack, Ukraine and Russia are now increasingly reliant on other countries for help in providing the vast amounts of ammunition needed to keep the other at bay.

Both countries are seeking new partners in the hopes of outproducing the other and bringing the intense firepower they think is needed to turn the tide in what has become a static conflict. Russia is hoping that, along with North Korea and Vietnam, Indian industry can help provide Russia with the tools it needs to defeat Ukraine.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan tested 249-mile strike weapon putting S-400 at risk



https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/01/14/pakistan-tested-a-249-mile...


Pakistan recently conducted tests on its own long-range missile, the Fatah-II. With an impressive range of 249 miles [400 km], this high-precision weapon is seen by Islamabad as a contender against India’s S-400 missile defense system.

The Inter-Services Public Relations [ISPR] revealed some essential details about the Fatah-II. This includes cutting-edge avionics, a complex navigation system, and a unique flight trajectory.

If you’re interested in cutting-edge missile technology, look no further than the Fatah-II. This two-round, guided rocket system, showcased in detail by ISPR’s footage, is set atop the nimble, eight-wheel Chinese Taian TAS5450 drive chassis.

What makes the Fatah-II stand out from its peers? Its state-of-the-art flight control technology and improved pathfinding system, for starters. Plus, with the inclusion of satellite and inertial navigation systems, it boasts impressively accurate precision, to an error of less than 10 meters.

Such pinpoint precision elevates the Fatah-II to an eminent position in the world of missile technology. But don’t just take our word for it. Umair Aslam, CEO of Global Defense Insight, said in an interview that “this technology enhances the Pakistani military’s ability to target strategic assets like bridges and air defense units within a 400-kilometer radius. That’s thanks to its unparalleled navigation and avionic technologies.”

The Fatah-II meshes effortlessly with missile systems like the Fatah-I, the Chinese A-100, the Yarmouk series, and the Nasr tactical ballistic missiles.

Perhaps the most significant feature of the Fatah-II is that it can target with accuracy over a 400-kilometer distance. That’s a significant increase from the 140-kilometer range of the Fatah-I. It’s a game-changer for long-range artillery.

Military experts often refer to the Fatah-II as a “flat trajectory missile,” making it exceedingly difficult to detect by radar. Could this have been a deliberate design choice? If so, it certainly accrues a strategic advantage, making detection harder and enabling precise targeting.

From these insights, it’s clear that the Fatah-II is not a usual missile. It’s a meticulously designed system poised to define the future of long-range artillery.

India’s S-400 at risk
The Fatah-II, an advanced missile system, successfully passed its test run. Experts worldwide and Pakistani media suggest it might be a strong match for India’s premier S-400 missile system.

Many even believe the Fatah-II could be a crucial tool in Pakistan’s strategy to keep India in check. Its unique Fatah II flat trajectory could make it more challenging for the radar systems to detect.


Umair Aslam, a noted expert, believes that once the Pakistani army adopts the Fatah-II, it will pose a significant challenge to the Indian armed forces.

Aslam further explains that Fatah-II’s ability to counter modern defense systems and engage the S-400 through saturation attacks represents a critical addition to Pakistan’s military arsenal.

Frank O’Donnell from the South Asia Program at Stimson Center views the emergence of Fatah-2 as a smart move by Pakistan, learning from recent conflicts like the Azerbaijan-Armenia and Russia-Ukraine wars.

However, Defense analyst Patricia Marins encourages caution due to limited data regarding the missile’s precise trajectory and expresses her concerns about India’s locally developed defense systems.

Marins highlights the challenges anti-missile systems might face due to the reach and mobility of the Fatah-II. The recent Ukraine conflict serves as a sobering reminder that any missile type can threaten anti-missile systems, particularly those not thoroughly tested.