Turkish and Israeli Drones Enable Azerbaijan's Decisive Victory Over Armenia

[Riaz Haq]

Defense analysts believe that Turkish and Israeli drones have helped Azerbaijan achieve decisive victory against Armenia. "Azerbaijan’s drones owned the battlefield in Nagorno-Karabakh — and showed future of warfare" says the Washington Post headline as tweeted by drone warfare expert Franz-Stefan Gady. Low-cost Azeri drones killed thousands of Armenian soldiers in Nagorno-Karabakh and destroyed hundreds of Armenian tanks and artillery pieces, giving a huge advantage to Azerbaijan and forcing the Armenian surrender.  Armenian Prime Minister accused Pakistan of sending troops to help Azerbaijan in the conflict. Pakistan rejected Armenian allegations and congratulated Azerbaijan on its victory. 

Turkish Drones

Azeris deployed a variety of drones in their war against Armenia to wrest control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that is legally part of Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenians. Azeris used Turkish Bayraktar drones which are large and reusable drones. They also Kamikaze drones made by Israel which are small and designed for one-time use in destroying targets.  The small Israeli-made suicide drones are sometimes also referred to as "loitering munitions". Azeris used big old WW2 Antonov AN-2 biplanes as decoys to fool Armenian air defense systems. 

Michael Kofman, military analyst and director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense think tank in Arlington, Va. is quoted by the Washington Post as saying, “Drones offer small countries very cheap access to tactical aviation and precision guided weapons, enabling them to destroy an opponent’s much-costlier equipment such as tanks and air defense systems.”  “An air force is a very expensive thing,” he added. “And they permit the utility of air power to smaller, much poorer nations.”

In 2019, dozens of cheap drones were deployed against Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields to cut Saudi Aramco's production by half, according to multiple media reports. Saudi and US officials have blamed Iran for the destructive hit. This was the first time that cheap drone swarms loaded with explosives dodged sophisticated air defense systems to hit critical infrastructure targets in the history of warfare.  

Small drones are hard to detect even by the most sophisticated radars. It's even harder to shoot down a drone swarm because of their small size and large numbers. After Abqaiq and Khurais attacks last year, Saudi sources revealed that 25 drones and missiles were used to hit the two sites that produced 5.7 million barrels of oil per day. The incoming low-flying small drones and missiles successfully evaded US-supplied sophisticated air defense system. Multi-billion dollar cutting edge American military hardware mainly designed to deter high altitude attacks has proved no match for low-cost drones and cruise missiles used in a strike that crippled its giant oil industry. 

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[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan And India Bolster Azerbaijan And Armenia’s Airpower



https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2024/09/29/pakistan-and-india-bolster-azerbaijan-and-armenias-airpower/


Neighboring rivals India and Pakistan are helping two other rival countries in the South Caucasus region build up their modest air forces with fighter jet exports and upgrades.

Beaming and giving a thumbs up from the cockpit of a newly-delivered JF-17C Block III at Heydar Aliyev International Airport in Baku on September 25, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev conclusively confirmed years of rumors that his country would acquire that combat aircraft from Pakistan. The following day, the Pakistani military announced the signing of a contract to sell the single-engine, multirole fighter jets to Azerbaijan but did not reveal the cost or how many fighters the contract covers.

Unconfirmed reports in Azerbaijani and Pakistani media in February claimed Azerbaijan had reached a $1.6 billion deal for the JF-17s but again did not disclose the number of jets.

Either way, induction of these modern fighters with their active electronically scanned array, AESA, radars marks a boost for Azerbaijan’s modest air force, which hitherto consisted of a mere dozen MiG-29s and less than 40 subsonic Su-25 Frogfoot attack planes.

The news came less than a week after Indian media confirmed that Armenia is seeking New Delhi’s help to upgrade its tiny fleet of just four Russian Su-30SM jets, the only fighters Yerevan has. India, which manufactures the Su-30MKI variant under license, is ideally suited for helping Armenia upgrade its four Flankers for reasons previously outlined in this space.


According to the Indian media reports, Armenia seeks the Uttam AESA radar, new avionics, and weapons. India produces the indigenous beyond visual range Astra air-to-air missile, which is compatible with the Su-30, and may well sell them to Armenia. Such upgrades could help Armenia’s twin-engine, sleek, and supermaneuverable Flankers maintain their technological edge against Azerbaijan’s shiny new JF-17s.

Armenia has already bought advanced weaponry from India, notably the Akash medium-range air defense system, and is reportedly considering other systems. In recent years, it has sought to diversify its military procurement sources to lessen its overwhelming reliance on Russian hardware. As part of this process, it also acquired Mistral short-range air defense missiles from France and Caesar howitzers.

More broadly, Armenia’s air defenses are undergoing a transitional phase. Iran International reported in July that Armenia had secretly reached a $500 million deal with Iran for the supply of indigenous long-range air defenses. On top of that, the Kyiv Post recently reported that Armenia signed a $232 million contract with the European Commission in late August to transfer Soviet-era munitions and equipment, including its strategic, long-range S-300 air defense missile systems, to Ukraine.

Both of those reports should, of course, be taken with a gigantic grain of salt. However, one thing is certain: the Armenian armed forces are doubtlessly undergoing a substantial and rapid transformation.

India can doubtlessly help Armenia get the best out of its Su-30s, which arrived in 2019 but were never used in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan or during subsequent clashes. New Delhi may even be in a position to offer Armenia additional Su-30s.

The Diplomat recently reported that Indian-built Su-30s could be a game-changer in the international arms export market. The country recently entered talks with Russia on the potential joint production of Flankers in India for export. The Russian airframe, which is renowned for its maneuverability, coupled with Indian-made systems and weapons, would offer potential buyers a very unique combat aircraft.

“With a long list of potential clients for a jointly produced Su-30 fighter, the implications of such an agreement for both countries remain highly significant,” read the report.