Turkish and Israeli Drones Enable Azerbaijan's Decisive Victory Over Armenia

[Riaz Haq]

Defense analysts believe that Turkish and Israeli drones have helped Azerbaijan achieve decisive victory against Armenia. "Azerbaijan’s drones owned the battlefield in Nagorno-Karabakh — and showed future of warfare" says the Washington Post headline as tweeted by drone warfare expert Franz-Stefan Gady. Low-cost Azeri drones killed thousands of Armenian soldiers in Nagorno-Karabakh and destroyed hundreds of Armenian tanks and artillery pieces, giving a huge advantage to Azerbaijan and forcing the Armenian surrender.  Armenian Prime Minister accused Pakistan of sending troops to help Azerbaijan in the conflict. Pakistan rejected Armenian allegations and congratulated Azerbaijan on its victory. 

Turkish Drones

Azeris deployed a variety of drones in their war against Armenia to wrest control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that is legally part of Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenians. Azeris used Turkish Bayraktar drones which are large and reusable drones. They also Kamikaze drones made by Israel which are small and designed for one-time use in destroying targets.  The small Israeli-made suicide drones are sometimes also referred to as "loitering munitions". Azeris used big old WW2 Antonov AN-2 biplanes as decoys to fool Armenian air defense systems. 

Michael Kofman, military analyst and director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense think tank in Arlington, Va. is quoted by the Washington Post as saying, “Drones offer small countries very cheap access to tactical aviation and precision guided weapons, enabling them to destroy an opponent’s much-costlier equipment such as tanks and air defense systems.”  “An air force is a very expensive thing,” he added. “And they permit the utility of air power to smaller, much poorer nations.”

In 2019, dozens of cheap drones were deployed against Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields to cut Saudi Aramco's production by half, according to multiple media reports. Saudi and US officials have blamed Iran for the destructive hit. This was the first time that cheap drone swarms loaded with explosives dodged sophisticated air defense systems to hit critical infrastructure targets in the history of warfare.  

Small drones are hard to detect even by the most sophisticated radars. It's even harder to shoot down a drone swarm because of their small size and large numbers. After Abqaiq and Khurais attacks last year, Saudi sources revealed that 25 drones and missiles were used to hit the two sites that produced 5.7 million barrels of oil per day. The incoming low-flying small drones and missiles successfully evaded US-supplied sophisticated air defense system. Multi-billion dollar cutting edge American military hardware mainly designed to deter high altitude attacks has proved no match for low-cost drones and cruise missiles used in a strike that crippled its giant oil industry. 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan-China Defense Industry Collaboration Irks West

Pakistan's Cyber Attack and Defense Capability

Is India a Paper Elephant?

Pakistan's Aircraft Exports

Pakistan Navy Modernization

IDEAS 2014 Arms Show

Pakistan Defense Industry

Silicon Valley Book Launch of "Eating Grass"

Pakistan's Human Capital

Pakistan Economy Nears Trillion Dollars

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Riaz Haq Youtube Channel

VPOS Youtube Channel

[Riaz Haq]

#China deploys armed robotic ground vehicles during standoff with #India to deal with cold, difficult terrain. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) acquired the vehicles – known as the Sharp Claw and the Mule-200 – as early as 2014 | Fox News

https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-unmanned-vehicles-armed-robots-...

Reports from India claim that China has started to deploy armed robotic vehicles to handle the altitude and terrain that has proven too difficult for its troops.

China and India clashed in Sept. 2020 during a border dispute along the southern coast of Pangong Lake in an area known in China as Shenpaoshan and in India as Chushul, but the armies continued their standoff along the two nations' borders throughout 2021. China has now reportedly deployed unmanned ground vehicles (UGV) to the region of Tibet to strengthen its position.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) acquired the vehicles – known as the Sharp Claw and the Mule-200 – as early as 2014, but they have not seen much deployment until now. The Chinese military has deployed around 120-300 Mules to Tibet, the majority of them stationed near the border, WION News reported.

Operators can control the Claw wirelessly, but it can also move on its own, according to National Interest. The Mule can serve as either an unmanned delivery truck or utilize weapons, such as mounted guns.

The PLA has deployed around 88 Sharp Claws into Tibet, with 38 of them in the western part of the province close to where the Indian and Chinese armies maintain a standoff, Times Now News reported.


The region in which the vehicles may have deployed is described as exceedingly arid, remote, and largely inhospitable. The area mainly serves as access for a few commerce routes to cross the desert.

The PLA has also deployed the VP-22 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle, which can help move troops through the difficult terrain or serve as an ambulance. Most of the 70 units reportedly deployed to Tibet have also focused in the western sector.

Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and Harvard Law School’s International Human Rights Clinic have called on world governments to halt the development of war robots for almost a decade, but efforts continue.

Tech company Zhong Tian Zhu Kong Technology Holdings developed the Mule, which has a range of roughly 31 miles (50 km)and can carry up to 440 pounds (200 kg) of ammunition, supplies or weapons.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

Chinese Defense Company NORINCO (China North Industries Corporation) developed the Sharp Claw for reconnaissance and limited engagements. The operator wears a small control unit to utilize the vehicle, Army Recognition reported.

[Riaz Haq]

Shashank Joshi
@shashj
In this week's
@TheEconomist
: my 10-page Technology Quarterly on hiding vs finding in warfare: the impact of more sensors, better sensors & better-connected sensors. It ranges from synthetic aperture radar, to anti-submarine warfare, to modern deception. https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2022-01-29

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1486732888737415185?s=20

-----------

Hide and Seek
Defence technology
TECHNOLOGY QUARTERLY - JAN 29TH 2022
War among the sensors poses new challenges, says Shashank Joshi

Like smartphones, but lethal: The technology of seeing and shooting your enemies
All the targets, all the time: Synthetic-aperture radar is making the Earth’s surface watchable 24/7
See-through seas: Finding submarines is likely to get easier
Lots of signal, lots of noise: Where to process data, and how to add them up
Fierce contests: Deception and destruction can still blind the enemy

[Riaz Haq]

#China may sell or help #Pakistan develop its own HGV (Hypersonic Glide Vehicle) or sell #hypersonic DF-17 #missile. It's in response to #India's #Russian S-400 acquisition which may limit Pakistan's use of its own airspace, given its geography/proximity https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/china-may-sell-pak-its-df-17-...

Pakistan and China have come up with a new strategy in wake of India flexing its military muscle. Experts suggest that China is likely to equip Pakistan with its DF-17 hypersonic missile system in a bid to counter India's S-400 air defence system. Richard D. Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center in an interview has claimed that China is likely to sell the DF-17 or assist Pakistani HGV like it has supported North Korea’s new hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) missile warhead. Hypersonic weapons, which travel at Mach 5 speeds (five times the speed of sound), are difficult to track and engage for air defence systems like S-400, that both India and China possess. Pakistan sees India's acquisition of the S-400 as a threat because of the system's versatility, which allows it to shoot down planes even in Pakistani airspace. A notable element of the S-400 is its potential offensive capabilities, which would limit an adversary's usage of its own airspace. The defensive system can cover a huge portion of Pakistan because of the country's terrain and lengthy border with India.

-----------


https://eurasiantimes.com/china-to-equip-pakistan-with-hypersonic-d...

Richard D. Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, testified before the US Congress about China’s military advances and has written extensively about the People’s Liberation Army.

“To the extent that China has supported North Korea’s new hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) missile warhead, it has or will similarly assist a Pakistani HGV, or just sell the DF-17,” he told Defense News.

Given the air defense system’s superior sensors and the array of missiles, the Indian Media has referred to the S-400 as a “game-changer.” The S-400 employs four different types of surface-to-air missiles having a range from 40 to 400 kilometers.

[Riaz Haq]

Turkish Aerospace, Pakistani institution to jointly produce UAV parts

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/turkish-aerospace-pakis...

One of Turkey’s leading unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) producers, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), has inked a contract with Pakistan's National Engineering and Science Commission (NESCOM) to produce components for TAI's medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) combat drone, Anka.

TAI and NESCOM will be jointly responsible for employment, resource and technology transfer within the scope of the agreement that was inked to expand the markets for the Turkish drones, an Anadolu Agency (AA) report said Saturday.

TAI General Manager Temel Kotil said, “The contract we made with Pakistan within the scope of our Anka UAV systems will provide significant gains to the UAV industry. This acquisition, especially with Pakistan’s National Engineering and Science Commission, will strengthen our UAVs.”

The Anka UAV performed its maiden flight in September 2016 and entered serial production in 2017.

The drone, which is manufactured locally, is currently in active use by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), the Gendarmerie General Command and the National Intelligence Organization (MIT).

Anka can stay in the air for more than 24 hours at an altitude of 30,000 feet (9,144 meters) with a payload capacity of 250 kilograms (550 pounds).

Anka has three configurations. The Anka-S configuration has Beyond Line Of Sight (BLOS) capability through satellite links and is being used by the TSK and the Gendarmerie units. The Anka-B configuration can use Link Relay capabilities and is also used by the TSK and the Gendarmerie The Anka-I, which is the configuration that performs signal intelligence, is used by the MIT.

[Riaz Haq]

Turkey Widens War Tech Hunt by Tapping Pakistan’s China Tie


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-02/turkey-expands-w...

Turkey Widens War Tech Hunt by Tapping Pakistan’s China Ties
Turkey wants to produce fighter jets, missiles with Pakistan
Pakistan makes jets with China, said to use its missile design


Turkey is pushing to co-manufacture warplanes and missiles with Pakistan, a hookup that could also give it access to prized war technology from China.

Turkish defense and government officials have held periodic talks with Pakistani counterparts -- the last high-level discussion was in January -- about developing and manufacturing military hardware with Pakistan, according to people from both countries who are familiar with the negotiations. The people didn’t say when they’ll meet again or how close they are to an agreement.

--------------

Why Turkey wants tie-up with Pakistan to build '1st big fighter jet of Muslims'The TF-X project is considered cornerstone of Turkey's defence modernisation plans

https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2021/03/03/why-turkey-wants-tie-u...

Bloomberg noted the apparent aim of the cooperation with Pakistan was to bring "Turkey closer to some of China’s military technology". China has been Pakistan's main strategic benefactor for decades, helping Islamabad build fighter aircraft, missiles, warships, tanks and submarines.

In 2013, Turkey announced a Chinese company had been selected to develop a long-range surface-to-air missile system. However, in 2015, Turkey announced the cancellation of the deal with China, apparently over Beijing's reluctance to transfer technology for the project as well as pressure from NATO allies.

China already has two stealth fighter projects: The J-20 fighter that is in service and the lighter J-31 fighter that is still in development. While China has also faced obstacles in developing aircraft engines, Beijing is beginning to make progress in building indigenous propulsion systems for its warplanes.

Interestingly, Pakistan also has a 'fifth-generation' fighter project under development referred to as 'Project Azm'. However, little is known about progress on the project and given Pakistan's economic and technological limitations, an indigenous project of this magnitude is unlikely to see the light of day. Hence, the offer of cooperation from Turkey may turn out to be appealing to Pakistan.

[Riaz Haq]

#Ukraine Says It Used #Turkish-Made #Drones to Hit #Russian Targets. Ukraine’s air force confirmed two strikes on Russian targets by Turkish-made drones, evidence that #Kyiv is using the drones effectively against #Moscow’s invading forces.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02...

Ukraine’s air force confirmed two strikes on Russian targets by Turkish-made drones, evidence that Kyiv is using the drones effectively against Moscow’s invading forces.

The chief of Ukraine’s air force, Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk, called the Bayraktar TB2 drones “life-giving” in a Facebook post.

A video posted on Twitter by the Ukrainian Embassy in Ankara showed a convoy of more than a dozen vehicles consumed by a fireball and a plume of smoke. The embassy tweeted two more videos taken out the window of a moving vehicle showing the charred wreckage of military vehicles.

The Ukrainian air force confirmed that one of these videos depicted the result of a TB2 strike in the town of Chornobaivka, in southern Ukraine, an area that has experienced serious fighting over the past couple of days.

“Never a rose without a thorn,” the embassy wrote in one of the tweets. “Russian invaders have to put up with Bayraktar TB2s.”

The embassy called the strike “divine justice” for a Russian airstrike that killed 34 Turkish soldiers in Syria on this date two years ago.

Ukraine began receiving shipments of the Turkish-made drones in 2019 and has been using their high-powered cameras to view the battlefield and laser-correct artillery strikes. The TB2 can stay aloft for 24 hours, with an altitude ceiling of roughly 25,000 feet. A remote pilot can fly the drone from as far away as 185 miles, weather permitting.

[Riaz Haq]

Europe relies on Swift to pay Russian producers for 40% of its natural-gas supply. Fear that Russia's natural gas exports could be frozen sent Europe's natural gas prices shooting up as high as $40 per million BTUs vs. about $5 per million in the natural-gas-rich U.S.

https://www.investors.com/news/russia-ukraine-invasion-poses-big-ec...


If sustained, such prices would plunge European economies into recession, as consumers struggled to pay bills and manufacturers were forced to shutter their factories.

Germany has already halted certification of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia as the Ukraine invasion loomed. It also said it'll take steps to wean itself off Russian gas over time. But pressure is building on Germany to accede to harsher sanctions.

There would still be potential workarounds, if Russia is cut off from Swift. BCA Research said it expects Germany to find an alternate way of transmitting payment instructions to keep energy flowing.

Russia might use China's much smaller CIPS messaging system for conducting regional commerce, driving the countries closer together. Still, it's not clear how effective any of these alternatives will be, so risk will rise of price increases or supply disruptions for a number of key commodities.

Russia's Other Riches
Russia's economy is "basically a big gas station," but otherwise of little global importance, Jason Furman, top economic advisor to President Obama, said recently.

For S&P 500 companies, Russia only amounts to 0.1% of total sales, according to a Bank of America report.

Yet Russia controls big enough slices of key commodity markets beyond oil and gas to roil global supply chains that are still trying to recover from Covid disruptions.

Russia accounted for 6% of global aluminum and 5% of nickel supply in 2021, according to the Cru Group's commodity market research.

On Thursday, aluminum prices rose more than 3% to hit an all-time high $3,450 per ton, while nickel reached a decade-plus high around $25,000 per ton.

Inventories of base metals are already extremely low, JPMorgan said in a note to clients. That leaves "very little additional cushion for further supply disruptions — either from Russia directly or via higher-for-longer gas and power prices," the firm's analysts added.

Russia also controls 35% of palladium and 10% of platinum supply. Those precious metals are used in catalytic converters to reduce auto emissions.

The U.S. neon supply, key in the advanced lithography chipmaking process, comes almost entirely from Russia and Ukraine, says the Techcet research and consulting firm.

With nearly 25% of the global wheat supply between Russia and Ukraine, the invasion also could exacerbate food inflation.

For the U.S. and its allies to target these crucial commodities with sanctions would be shooting themselves in the foot.

Ukraine Invasion Timing
The West will sanction less-essential Russian exports, like diamonds. Still, Russia's major income streams will remain intact, as Putin surely counted on. The surge in oil prices and global inflation pressures mean Putin has invaded Ukraine at the most opportune time.

"Putin was ready for this crisis," said Lori Esposito Murray, president of The Conference Board's public policy arm, in a podcast this week. "He's been planning this for a while."

Murray highlighted the $630 billion in currency reserves that Russia has built up to buttress its economic foundations for war.

That's not to say Russians won't pay a steep price from the Ukraine invasion and sanctions. Biden noted Thursday that the ruble had fallen to an all-time low, while Russian borrowing rates soared. Amid currency depreciation, a recession in Russia looks like a given.

[Riaz Haq]

Over Ukraine, Lumbering Turkish-Made Drones Are an Ominous Sign for Russia

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/us/politics/ukraine-military-dro...

Ukraine’s most sophisticated attack drone is about as stealthy as a crop duster: slow, low-flying and completely defenseless. So when the Russian invasion began, many experts expected the few drones that the Ukrainian forces managed to get off the ground would be shot down in hours.

But more than two weeks into the conflict, Ukraine’s drones — Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 models that buzz along at about half the speed of a Cessna — are not only still flying, they also shoot guided missiles at Russian missile launchers, tanks and supply trains, according to Pentagon officials.

The drones have become a sort of lumbering canary in the war’s coal mine, a sign of the astonishing resiliency of the Ukrainian defense forces and the larger problems that the Russians have encountered.

“The performance of the Russian military has been shocking,” said David A. Deptula, a retired three-star Air Force general who planned the U.S. air campaigns in Afghanistan in 2001 and the Persian Gulf in 1991. “Their failure to secure air superiority has been reflected by their slow and ponderous actions on the ground. Conversely, the Ukrainian air force performing better than expected has been a big boost to the morale of the entire country.”

“Even with the drones’ record of success, everyone expected that, once they really faced the full gamut of Russian defenses, they would stand no chance,” said Lauren Kahn, who studies drone warfare at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. Their survival and continued use “is really raising questions about the Russians’ capabilities,” she said.

Pentagon officials remain puzzled by the Russians’ failure to dominate the skies over Ukraine, at least so far. Moscow built up sophisticated missile defenses and air power on Ukraine’s borders, but it has not been using them effectively to complement its ground forces, U.S. officials and analysts said. And Ukrainian air defenses have been surprisingly effective at downing Russian aircraft.

“We aren’t seeing the level of integration between air and ground operations that you would expect to see,” John F. Kirby, the chief Pentagon spokesman, said on Monday. “Not everything they’re doing on the ground is fully being supported by what they’re doing in the air. There does seem to be some disconnect there.”

[Riaz Haq]

"We Are Witnessing a New Form of Warfare" | Washington Monthly


https://washingtonmonthly.com/2022/03/11/we-are-witnessing-a-new-fo...

Q: What do you make of the offer by Poland to provide MiG fighters to the United States that we would then deliver to Ukraine?

A: It was really not smart of the Poles to float this publicly. It was an unforced error on their part. The more visible this discussion is, the less helpful it is.

Q: So how will Ukraine get the fighters it needs?

A: There are countries that have MiGs that are not members of NATO. This is a classic case where the U.S. government gets its checkbook out and quietly goes to one of those countries. The fighters just show up in Ukraine. The Russians wouldn’t even necessarily know where they came from—remember, right now, they don’t even control the airspace over Ukraine. They would obviously know what happened, but the United States and NATO would have deniability. It’s called “foreign material acquisition.” We did this all the time during the Cold War.

Q: How vital is it to get those MIGs to Ukraine?

A: I don’t see it as being decisive. Maybe I’m wrong. The Ukrainians seem to want them badly. I’m sure they want to use them to hit Russian tanks and deny Russia control of the airspace. But they are doing an amazing job of that with the weapons we already gave them. We’ve supplied them with something like 17,000 anti-tank missiles and I don’t know how many [antiaircraft] Stingers. We should be giving them thousands more.

We are witnessing a new form of warfare. To put a tank on a battlefield costs maybe $30 million. A Javelin anti-tank missile costs $175,000. Similarly with fighter jets and antiaircraft missiles. You can defend territory at a tiny fraction of what it costs the aggressor to take it. The drones the Ukrainians bought from the Turks are doing incredible damage. But just the cheap commercial drones you buy at Walmart can give you total tactical awareness of the battlefield. So Ukrainians can see everything the Russians are doing. They don’t even nee

[Riaz Haq]

US defense contractors see longer term benefits from war in Ukraine

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220403-us-defense-contracto...


New York (AFP) – US arms manufacturers are not cashing in directly from the thousands of missiles, drones and other weapons being sent to Ukraine, but they do stand to profit big-time over the long run by supplying countries eager to boost their defenses against Russia.

Like other Western countries, the United States has turned to its own stocks to furnish Ukraine with shoulder-fired Stinger and Javelin missiles, for instance. These weapons from Lockheed-Martin and Raytheon Technologies were paid for some time ago.

So these companies' first quarter results, due to be released in coming weeks, should not be especially fatter because of the rush to arm Ukraine as it fights off the Russian invasion.

But those US military weapons stockpiles being tapped for Kyiv will need to be replenished.

The Pentagon plans to use $3.5 billion earmarked for this purpose in a spending bill approved in mid-March, a Defense Department spokesman told AFP.

The Javelin anti-tank missile is made by a joint venture between Lockheed and Raytheon. The latter's Stinger anti-aircraft missile had ceased to be produced until the Pentagon ordered $340 million of them last summer.

"We are exploring options to more quickly replenish US inventories and backfill depleted stocks of allies and partners," the spokesman said.

"It will take time to revive the industrial base -- at the prime and at sub-tier suppliers -- to enable production to resume," he added.

The profits that the companies make from these missiles, known for being simple to use, will not exactly be staggering, defense industry experts told AFP.

"If 1,000 Stingers and 1,000 Javelins get shipped to Eastern Europe each month for the next year, which is not unlikely given the current pace, in our view, we think it would equate to $1 billion to $2 billion in revenue for both program manufacturers, which is material," said Colin Scarola of CFRA, an investment research firm.

Raytheon's and Lockheed's revenue figures last year dwarf that amount, however: $64 billion and $67 billion, respectively.

"Raytheon probably made more money off selling a Patriot missile system to Saudi Arabia than they will from making Stinger missiles," said Jordan Cohen, an arms sales specialist at the Cato Institute.

"They're only going to put so much effort into producing those weapons that are not that valuable," Cohen told AFP.

Lockheed, Raytheon and another arms manufacturer, Northrop Grumman, did not respond to AFP requests for comment.

General Dynamics said it has not raised its financial outlook since January, while Boeing just said it is up to governments to decide how to spend money earmarked for defense.