Turkish and Israeli Drones Enable Azerbaijan's Decisive Victory Over Armenia

[Riaz Haq]

Defense analysts believe that Turkish and Israeli drones have helped Azerbaijan achieve decisive victory against Armenia. "Azerbaijan’s drones owned the battlefield in Nagorno-Karabakh — and showed future of warfare" says the Washington Post headline as tweeted by drone warfare expert Franz-Stefan Gady. Low-cost Azeri drones killed thousands of Armenian soldiers in Nagorno-Karabakh and destroyed hundreds of Armenian tanks and artillery pieces, giving a huge advantage to Azerbaijan and forcing the Armenian surrender.  Armenian Prime Minister accused Pakistan of sending troops to help Azerbaijan in the conflict. Pakistan rejected Armenian allegations and congratulated Azerbaijan on its victory. 

Turkish Drones

Azeris deployed a variety of drones in their war against Armenia to wrest control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that is legally part of Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenians. Azeris used Turkish Bayraktar drones which are large and reusable drones. They also Kamikaze drones made by Israel which are small and designed for one-time use in destroying targets.  The small Israeli-made suicide drones are sometimes also referred to as "loitering munitions". Azeris used big old WW2 Antonov AN-2 biplanes as decoys to fool Armenian air defense systems. 

Michael Kofman, military analyst and director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense think tank in Arlington, Va. is quoted by the Washington Post as saying, “Drones offer small countries very cheap access to tactical aviation and precision guided weapons, enabling them to destroy an opponent’s much-costlier equipment such as tanks and air defense systems.”  “An air force is a very expensive thing,” he added. “And they permit the utility of air power to smaller, much poorer nations.”

In 2019, dozens of cheap drones were deployed against Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields to cut Saudi Aramco's production by half, according to multiple media reports. Saudi and US officials have blamed Iran for the destructive hit. This was the first time that cheap drone swarms loaded with explosives dodged sophisticated air defense systems to hit critical infrastructure targets in the history of warfare.  

Small drones are hard to detect even by the most sophisticated radars. It's even harder to shoot down a drone swarm because of their small size and large numbers. After Abqaiq and Khurais attacks last year, Saudi sources revealed that 25 drones and missiles were used to hit the two sites that produced 5.7 million barrels of oil per day. The incoming low-flying small drones and missiles successfully evaded US-supplied sophisticated air defense system. Multi-billion dollar cutting edge American military hardware mainly designed to deter high altitude attacks has proved no match for low-cost drones and cruise missiles used in a strike that crippled its giant oil industry. 

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[Riaz Haq]

War in the Caucasus: Lessons

by Ejaz Haider

https://www.thefridaytimes.com/war-in-the-caucasus-lessons/

Azerbaijan could either just swallow Armenian intransigence or wait for the right opportunity. It gambled on the latter.

But, and that’s important: war is serious business and cannot be undertaken lightly.

At the politico-strategic level, the growing differential between Azeri and Armenian economies unfolded in Baku’s favour. The bigger economy (oil revenues, tourism, higher exports etc) allowed Baku to spend more on defence. However, except for 2015 when Azerbaijan’s defence spending rose to 5.6% of its GDP, it averaged at just below 4% between 2009 and 2019. Armenia, while spending relatively more on defence as a percentage of its GDP, averaging 4.5%, could not catch up given the much smaller size of its economy. According to data by the Stockholm International and Peace Research Institute, Baku spent some USD24 billion on defence between 2009 and 2018. Armenia spent a little over USD4 billion for the same period.

Nonetheless, the economy is just one factor, though a very important one. A state intending to go to war must also have its diplomatic flanks covered. Armenia has always been a close ally of Russia. Russia’s relations with Azerbaijan have seen ebbs and flows. However, since 2018, Armenia-Russia relations despite a military pact (Russia also maintains a base in Armenia) have been strained while Moscow’s relations with Baku have improved.

Azerbaijan also has very close relations with Turkey for historical, ethnic and linguistic reasons. Armenia and Turkey have historically been inimical. Azerbaijan and Turkey might be two separate states, but they consider themselves the same people. Azerbaijan also has strong ties with Israel. Turkey is also the second most important state player in the Caucasus and under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has developed a complicated relationship with Russia, which considers the former Soviet republics as Moscow’s sphere of influence.

Azerbaijan has been buying military equipment from Turkey, Israel and Russia. Its military has very close ties with the Turkish military; both sides have been conducting joint exercises and Turkey has been training Azeri officers and ranks. Azerbaijan’s military training, deployment, employment of equipment and doctrinal development owes greatly to the Turkish military.

Lesson 2: if a state wants to go to war, it must have strong backers.

Azerbaijan also has a strong legal case on its conflict with Armenia and the separatist Armenian government (not even recognised by Armenia for that reason). The UN resolutions completely support Azerbaijan’s claims on N-K.

Lesson 3: it’s always good to have a strong legal case if a state wants to use force.

This is as far as the politico-strategic environment is concerned and Azerbaijan managed to create its asymmetric advantage over Armenia at that level.

But war, in the end, is a contest where the will of the fighting sides is tested. That’s where we come to the military-operational level. The lessons at this level are quite fascinating.

From the actual conduct of war it is clear that Armenia was fighting the previous war (when it had an edge) while Azerbaijan had planned its offensives for the present war. It showed superior planning (the opening phase targeted the relatively flatter southern districts abutting N-K) and execution. Here are some lessons.

[Riaz Haq]

War in the Caucasus: Lessons

by Ejaz Haider

https://www.thefridaytimes.com/war-in-the-caucasus-lessons/



Here are some lessons.

1: If a fighting side cannot integrate the battle space with sensors, other electronic warfare systems and counter-drone measures, its land forces (troops, armour, infantry fighting vehicles, armoured personnel carriers, artillery guns, radar stations etc) will be in trouble. As has been noted by various analysts through the six weeks of the conflict, Azerbaijan used its Turkish Bayraktar TB-2 drone (which has four hard points for delivering laser-guided smart munitions) and Israeli Harop, which is a loitering munition optimised for suppression of enemy air defence (SEAD) ops. Given that it loiters, finds, acquires and attacks its target in a self-destruct, terminal mode, it’s also referred to as a kamikaze drone.

Azerbaijan employed both drones very effectively against Armenian tanks, IFVs/APCs, ground radars and artillery pieces.

Corollary: Armenian military had to hide its armour and mechanised assets and couldn’t employ them usefully in offensive mode. While it’s too early, as some analysts have suggested, that the era of the MBT and mechanised infantry is over, the conflict clearly tells us that without adequate counter-measures, armour and mechanised columns will be badly exposed to the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities and firepower of combat drones.

Azerbaijan integrated its ground-based fire power (indirect artillery fire, multi-barrel rocket launchers) with ISR data from the drones and used that for target acquisition and engagement. It seems to have learnt both the use of combat drones and integrating them with land-based firepower from operations conducted by the Turkish military in northern Syria against the Syrian Arab Army.
The conflict has also shown how combat drones can perform in SEAD and DEAD (destruction of enemy air defence) operations. Again, the Azeri military seems to have learnt this from the Turkish military. Bayraktar TB-2 has made a name for itself in Syria and Libya for successfully hunting the Russian-made Pantsir short- to medium-range mobile AD system. Like the Turkish military, Azerbaijan also used the MAM-L smart micro-munition against Armenia’s Strela system (9K33 and 9K35), a highly mobile, short-range surface-to-air missile.
The effective employment of combat drones against land forces, integrating them with ground-based firepower and using them for SEAD/DEAD missions not only managed to destroy much of Armenia’s offensive capability while also degrading its defences, but, by extension, made it easier for Azerbaijan to use its own armour, APCs and ground forces to capture and hold territory. In other words, Azerbaijan first dented the Armenian offensive and defensive capabilities and then used its land forces in a traditional offensive mode to capture and hold territory.
This is of course an overview of how the conflict unfolded. It does not mean that future wars will always be fought like this. Adversaries with symmetrical capabilities will have to further innovate to establish an asymmetrical advantage. There are other emerging technologies that are changing, and will change, the conduct of war in ways that one can only conjecture about at this time.

There is also the issue of escalation dominance and spirals, especially between adversaries that are nuclear armed. That raises other questions apropos of how effectively operations can be conducted and how, if at all, they can be conducted without the two sides getting into a spiral that could lead to crossing the nuclear thresholds.

The most important point to note, however, is the nexus between innovation (both in planning and employment of equipment and systems) and creating and maintaining an asymmetric advantage. That is what Azerbaijan achieved in this war. And that is why it has emerged as the victor.

[Riaz Haq]

How does drone warfare impact India’s preparedness?

https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis/story/drone-india-learn-aze...

With neighbours such as Pakistan and China, threat lies for India at any given point of time. Bolstering its military with the latest technology is the need of the hour, for which India has already been making moves in the combat drone/UCAV spectrum. The Indian Army is in possession of around 90 Heron Surveillance drones and the Harop loitering munition. Additionally, the army is planning to acquire more of these from Israel.

In August this year, the defence approved the upgrade of Heron UAVs. The upgrade will include arming some of these drones, sources in Indian security establishment said. The decision comes amid the India-China standoff as the Indian military is preparing to enhance its surveillance capabilities at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The Heron UAVs are already being used in the forward areas of Ladakh.

India is also looking to expedite its testing of the indigenous surveillance drones ‘Rustom-2’ before inducting them into service.

During the defence expo in Lucknow in February this year, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) from Israel and Dynnamatic Technologies Limited signed an agreement for manufacturing of drones.

The Indian Army also opted for the SpyLite mini-UAV for high-altitude aerial surveillance. This is built by Cyient Solutions & Systems (CSS), a joint venture between Cyient Ltd (India) and BlueBird Aero Systems (Israel).

With the opening of the American drone market, India is also exploring the possibility of acquiring several GA-ASI MQ-9 Reapers from the US subject to approval.

Talking about threats from neighbours, Pakistan has a plethora of options to choose from if it decides to expand its already existing combat drone options. Both Turkey and China design and manufacture high-end drone equipment. On the other hand, India will hope to bank upon Israel and the US.

With regards to the use of combat drones in our part of the world (read India’s border with Pakistan and China) drone warfare may not be as successful as it was in the Armenian context. This is because both India and Pakistan have heavy air defence systems.


Unless India completely dominates the air warfare, drones may not be as successful when it comes to combat operations. The induction of Rafale may help India with this regard.

China is the bigger player when it comes to drones and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). It has invested a lot of effort in developing civilian drones and the same has been translated into them developing combat drones. China is one of the leading countries when it comes to R&D concerning drone technology.

China also possesses anti-drone technology used to jam signals that disrupt drones or shoot incoming drones in order to divert or destroy them.


With China’s growing dominance in global drone market and Pakistan’s proximity with Beijing, India needs to quickly adapt to the changing game of drone warfare as it is likely to become even more prevalent in coming years.

----------

UCAVs also have a less carrying capacity compared to fighter jets. Hence, they are used in small but precise attacks rather than air-based raids that jets usually engage in. Azerbaijan used a new method of precision warfare that best compliments the use of such drones. This was only possible for rich and well-established militaries before, but now technology has made this more accessible to countries like Azerbaijan.

To name a few, countries with outstanding border conflicts include India, Pakistan, Serbia, Ukraine and many others. All these nations have already started purchasing attack drones and UCAVs.

The combat drone market can further explode by the Trump administration's push to deregulate their armed drone sales in a bid to allow the US manufacturers to compete in an export market dominated by China, Israel and Turkey.

[Riaz Haq]

The Impact of
Artificial Intelligence
on Strategic Stability
and Nuclear Risk
Volume III
South Asian Perspectives
edited by petr topychkanov


https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/impact_of_ai_on_s...



The ongoing renaissance of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the world. Just
like many other developing countries, India and Pakistan—the two nuclear-armed
states of South Asia—are exploring the subsequent opportunities for economic and
social change. Their political leaders seem to prioritize civilian applications of AI
over the military, and public attention reflects the political priorities. National
efforts to militarize AI do not receive the same public coverage as civilian AI
developments.
Meanwhile, according to the available open-source information, India and
Pakistan are increasingly interested in the potential benefits of AI for defence and
security. This might be one of the reasons why an expert debate on the opportunities and risks posed by the AI renaissance in the military realm has started
in recent years. However, the debate suffers from large gaps, particularly in the
emerging discussion on the potential impact of AI on strategic stability and
nuclear risk in South Asia. This issue has been underexplored by scholars studying South Asia from both inside and outside the region.
This edited volume—which follows earlier volumes on Euro-Atlantic and East
Asian perspectives—tries to fill the gaps in the scholarly debate on this important
topic and to facilitate further regional debate. It is based on a workshop held in
Colombo in February 2019. The eight expert contributors—from South Asia and
around the world—reflect the variety of issues, approaches and views.
It is clear from a comparative study of the state of adoption of AI in South
Asia that India and Pakistan are playing catch-up in the world competition on
military AI. Compared to the United States, China and Russia, India’s advances
are modest, while Pakistan’s are even less visible. One of the reasons seems to
be under-resourcing and inefficiencies in defence research and state industries.
These prohibit the development and adoption of emerging technologies within a
reasonable time frame.

However, according to contributors from India and Pakistan, both countries are well aware of the strategic significance of AI. They see AI as one of many enablers of the mutual strategic balance. India must also take into consideration the role of AI in the military build-up of China, one of its long-term security concerns.
In assessing the strategic significance of AI, the expert contributors—regardless of their origin—agree that AI is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, AI could enhance nuclear command and control, early warning, intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), and the physical security of nuclear capabilities, among other areas. In this way it would improve states’ sense of security. On the other hand, the same advances could cast doubt on the survivability of their respective second-strike capabilities. This doubt would stimulate more aggressive nuclear postures that could increase nuclear risk.

[Riaz Haq]

Inexpensive Turkish armed drones reshaping warfare

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/inexpensive-turkish-arm...


Turkey’s armed low-cost unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UAVs) that have proven their capabilities on the field are reshaping battlefields and geopolitics, a (Wall Street Journal) report said Thursday.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/armed-low-cost-drones-made-by-turkey-r...


The drones were successfully used in several recent regional conflicts in which they were seen pinpointing and hunting down armored vehicles and air defense systems, including in Libya, Syria and the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The drones also proved particularly useful in the fight against terrorist groups.

Smaller militaries around the world have been seen deploying inexpensive missile-equipped drones against armored enemies, proving it to be an advantageous new battlefield tactic, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Using affordable digital technology, the Turkish drones wrecked air-defense systems, tanks and other armored vehicles in wars in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan, the report notes.

"These drones point to future warfare being shaped as much by cheap but effective fighting vehicles as expensive ones with the most advanced technology," it said.

Last July during a virtual gathering of the Air and Space Power Conference, Britain's Defense Secretary Ben Wallace stressed the "game-changing" role of Turkish drones in modern warfare in the Middle East and North Africa.

"We need to look at the lessons of others. Look how Turkey has been operating in Libya, where it has used Bayraktar TB2 UAVs since mid-2019," said Wallace at the time.

The Bayraktar TB2 is a tactical armed UAV system developed and manufactured by drone magnate Baykar Makina.

According to the company, currently, 160 Bayraktar platforms are being put to use by Turkey, Qatar, Ukraine and Azerbaijan.

Poland last month announced it would buy 24 Bayraktar drones.

The Wall Street Journal report compared Bayraktar TB2 with the American MQ-9.

The TB2 is lightly armed with four laser-guided missiles. Its radio-controlled apparatus limits its basic range to around 200 miles, roughly a fifth of the ground the MQ-9 can cover, said the report.

"Yet it is utilitarian and reliable – qualities reminiscent of the Soviet Kalashnikov AK-47 rifle that changed warfare in the 20th century," praised the report.

"A set of six Bayraktar TB2 drones, ground units and other essential operations equipment costs tens of millions of dollars, rather than hundreds of millions for the MQ-9," said the report.

The Bayraktar TB2 first made an international name for itself in the Syria war early last year after the Turkish military launched Operation Spring Shield in northern Syria, backed by electronic warfare systems, ground troops, artillery and warplanes.

The report also highlighted the role of the drones in the Libyan civil war, which it said "helped turn the tide" in the conflict last spring.

Turkey backed the Tripoli-based government against putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar and his forces.

"Improved drone tactics honed in Syria provided the upper hand against Russian-made surface-to-air missile systems known as Pantsir, handing the Tripoli government aerial supremacy. By June, Haftar's forces retreated from Tripoli," outlined the report.

[Riaz Haq]

The TB2 (armed drone) was born of Turkey’s dissatisfaction with available models from the U.S. and Israel, and the country’s desire for systems under its control to fight the PKK, a Kurdish militant group.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/armed-low-cost-drones-made-by-turkey-r...

“Those countries did not cooperate with us sufficiently, so we had to launch our own program,” Mustafa Varank, Turkey’s minister of industry and technology, said in an interview. “Turkey is now reaping the fruits of taking the right decisions at the right time.”

Baykar emerged as a leader among several Turkish drone producers after spotting a niche in the early 2000s, said Mr. Bayraktar, the company’s chief executive. His brother Selcuk Bayraktar, who took advanced studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, came up with flight-control software and guidance systems while using off-the-shelf components.

During development, company officials set up a workshop at a military base to get a firsthand understanding, including from a colonel who took them to a patch of bloodied ground where, they said, Turkish soldiers were killed by the PKK.

In 2007, Turkey launched a national competition to supply mini drones, which yielded an order of 76 from Baykar. At the time, the U.S. wouldn’t sell armed drones to Turkey. Baykar developed the TB2 and gradually replaced foreign components with locally produced ones. In 2015, the company successfully test-fired a precision-guided munition.

Turkey’s military initially used the drones within its own borders and in northern Iraq and Syria. Soon, Mr. Erdogan deployed them in wars near Turkey’s borders.

Azerbaijan, geographically and culturally close to Turkey, procured a set of TB2 drones last year. The country had lost control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Armenia in a war that ended in a 1994 cease-fire. Rising petroleum wealth had bolstered Azerbaijan’s military in the years since.

The TB2s, as well as Israeli-made drones, helped Azerbaijan overwhelm Armenian forces. Attacks were recorded for videos and posted online by Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry.

--------

Oryx, a blog that verifies destroyed equipment using photos and videos, cited the destruction by the drones of 106 Armenian tanks, 146 artillery pieces, 62 multiple rocket-launch systems, 18 surface-to-air missile systems, seven radar units and 161 other vehicles. Total losses, Oryx noted, were likely higher. Azerbaijan had 30 tanks destroyed, among other vehicles and equipment, according to the blog.

After six weeks of fighting, the Kremlin, which is close to both countries but has a military alliance with Armenia and troops on its territory, brokered a cease-fire in November, and Azerbaijan regained most of its long-lost territory.

The Azerbaijan victory caught the attention of Turkey’s suppliers. Some companies and countries, including Canada, halted export of components used in the TB2. Baykar company officials said they have integrated a Turkish camera and accelerated work on a replacement engine, which is expected by year’s end.

[Riaz Haq]

As India remains engulfed in conflicts with both Pakistan and China concurrently, one thing that the Indian military officials would be keenly evaluating is the drone strength of both adversaries.

https://eurasiantimes.com/backed-by-china-turkey-why-pakistans-dron...

Pakistan is also known to have acquired 50 Wing Loong II armed drones from China, which according to official Chinese media, could turn out to be a “nightmare for Indian ground formations in high-altitude areas,” with India having the little capability to repel advanced stand-off weapons.

Both China and Pakistan are bolstering their unmanned attack capabilities, while India is preparing to lease the US and Israeli armed drones to boost its capability at the borders. India has so far employed its Israel-imported Searcher and Harop drones only for surveillance and reconnaissance purposes.


-------------------

Last year’s war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh clearly demonstrated the decisive advantage attack drones could bring to any battlefield.

Drone strikes by Azerbaijan targeting Armenian troops, destroying military installations, tanks, air defense systems, and artillery tilted the balance of the war in favor of the Turkey-backed country. The war over Nagorno-Karabakh was unequivocal proof of the strategic advantage provided by armed drones to the militaries possessing them.

Drones have proved to be a powerful, effective and low-cost alternative to conventional weapons, and countries around the world are in a race to acquire the most advanced armed drone fleets.

The US was the first country to use Predator armed drones in Afghanistan following the 9/11 attacks and since then many countries have been producing and exporting them, most notably Israel, Turkey and China.

Azerbaijan had acquired a substantial fleet of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and Israeli kamikaze drones that allowed it to decimate the Armenian ground forces and Russian air defense systems.

Turkey has reaped the benefits of the performance of its drones in the Nagorno-Karabakh war with multiple nations lining up to procure the country’s unmanned systems.

The country has sold its Bayraktar TB2 armed drones to countries like Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Qatar, and Libya so far. Poland recently became the first NATO nation to buy 24 Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey and according to reports, another NATO member from Europe, Latvia, may follow suit.


There have been reports that Pakistan has expressed deep interest to acquire TB2 drones from Turkey and going by the strong defense ties both nations enjoy, these speculations could soon turn out to be a reality.

The Bayraktar TB-2 drones, as demonstrated in the recent battle, can deceive modern air defense systems which include, as proven recently, Russian Pantsir and S-300 air defense systems.

Pakistan is also known to have acquired 50 Wing Loong II armed drones from China, which according to official Chinese media, could turn out to be a “nightmare for Indian ground formations in high-altitude areas,” with India having the little capability to repel advanced stand-off weapons.

Both China and Pakistan are bolstering their unmanned attack capabilities, while India is preparing to lease the US and Israeli armed drones to boost its capability at the borders. India has so far employed its Israel-imported Searcher and Harop drones only for surveillance and reconnaissance purposes.


Is India Prepared To Counter China, Pakistan?
India is also acquiring new advanced Heron drones on lease from Israel to keep an eye on the activities along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China. The new fleet will have more capabilities in terms of anti-jamming capabilities and weapons, reports indicate.

The Indian Navy also equipped itself with two Predator drones leased from the American firm General Atomics. The MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones will be deployed for long-range missions over the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal.

[Riaz Haq]

Turkey, Azerbaijan, Pakistan launch joint the "Three Brothers 2021" military exercise in #Baku. #Turkey & #Pakistan backed #Azerbaijan from the first day of the 44-day war against the #Armenian armed forces in Sept 2020. https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/turkey-azerbaijan-pak...

Turkish, Azerbaijani and Pakistani militaries launched their first-ever joint exercises in Baku on Sunday.

The "Three Brothers – 2021" exercises kicked off with a solemn opening ceremony. While national anthems of the participating countries were played and their flags raised, a minute of silence was also observed to commemorate their martyrs.

Speaking at the ceremony, Lt. Gen. Hikmat Mirzayev, Azerbaijan's special forces commander, said he was pleased to see the representatives of Turkish and Pakistani special forces in his country.

"Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan have entered the history of humanity as close friends and brothers. At the heart of these relations are the close ties between our peoples. Evidence of this can be seen in the solidarity and support of Turkey and Pakistan to Azerbaijan from the first day of the 44-day counteroffensive operations launched by Azerbaijan against the Armenian armed forces on Sept. 27, 2020," Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry quoted him as saying.

He was referring to the Nagorno-Karabakh war, which began last September and ended six weeks later following a Russia-brokered truce in November.

Azerbaijan liberated several cities and some 300 settlements and villages after a nearly three-decade occupation.

"Today, cooperation between our countries in all areas is at the highest level. Important measures are being taken to further strengthen and develop our relations to ensure the region's and peoples' security," Mirzayev said.

He hoped that the exercises, which will be held until Sept. 20, will provide an extensive exchange of experience and views between servicemen of the three countries and will "greatly contribute" to further improvement of the professional training.

Turkish, Pakistani and Azerbaijani troops attend the opening ceremony of the joint military drill in Baku, Sept. 12, 2021. (Azerbaijani Defense Ministry Handout via AA)
Turkish, Pakistani and Azerbaijani troops attend the opening ceremony of the joint military drill in Baku, Sept. 12, 2021. (Azerbaijani Defense Ministry Handout via AA)
The heads of Turkish and Pakistani delegations, Lt. Col. Kursat Konuk and Lt. Col. Aamir Shahzad, said the existing bond of friendship between the nations and armies "would stand the test of time" in a rapidly changing global environment.

The "three brothers will grow closer" as reliable regional partners and collaborators despite international political changes, they added.

The readout said that the joint military drills will serve to "further strengthen the existing" ties between the armies, as well as provide an opportunity to discover new ways to combat terrorism.

In July, Turkish, Azerbaijani and Pakistani parliament speakers accepted the Baku Declaration in a ceremony held at the Azerbaijani Parliament.

The joint declaration emphasizes the need to strengthen cooperation among the three countries, based on cultural and historical ties, mutual respect and confidence. It also emphasizes Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan's roles in building peace, stability and development in their regions.

Turkey and Azerbaijan held joint live-fire drills in Baku earlier this year.

[Riaz Haq]

PAKISTAN’S SILENT DRONE REVOLUTION
A generation of #engineers and students are engaged in efforts to develop & build civil #drones for #Pakistan. Civilian drone apps include #infrastructure inspection, #delivery business, #mapping, #agriculture & #mining. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2331335/pakistans-silent-drone-revolution

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1465025303584010241?s=20


The last two decades have reshaped the technological landscape of the world perhaps more drastically than any other time in history. The digital revolution, which perhaps began not that remarkably in the second half of the previous century, has evolved and expanded exponentially. Once seen as novelties for the well off, electronic items like smart devices and digital cameras have now become integral to daily life.

But while new generation of upgrades in these gadgets, smartphones and laptops hog most public attention, the civilian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or drone has gone through a silent but drastic evolution of its own. The world over, these miniature flying machines are now an essential tool in the kit of various industries. Thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic, their immense utility is now clearer than ever before.

-------
In July 2020, the government of Pakistan shared plans to formulate a National Drone Policy and in March 2021, Prime Minister Imran Khan announced creation of Civil Drone Authority to regulate unmanned aircraft in Pakistan.

Ikram highlighted that the National Drone Policy needed a three pronged approach.

“Firstly, it should enable the growth of UAV industry in the country by turning it economical to design and manufacture UAVs in Pakistan as opposed to importing them,” he said. “Secondly, it should provide a practical framework for authorisation of UAV flying in coordination with CAA and other stakeholders.”

Finally, he added that it should enable the formation of UAV ports and training centers so that our next generation is in step with rest of the world.

Many stakeholders term absence of approval of drone policy a major hurdle in growth of the drone industry in Pakistan.

Giving details of the National Drone Policy, Siddiqui said that it would demand licensing of drone because the government needed to know who is flying them and for what purpose.

“This will curb smuggling and increase legitimate businesses which is a good thing for the industry,” he said. “Following implementation of the policy, local and international drone dealers in Pakistan would be encouraged with the passage of time.”

---------------
Raza Sabri, who is involved in production of customised drones for defence forces and the government, agreed that the market of non-combat drones in Pakistan was quite visible and it was growing day after day. According to him, the most prominent civilian applications of drone included land survey, mapping, agriculture use and mining.

He appreciated that the revenue earned by his company from non-combat drones was rising as well given the rapid adoption of service drones in Pakistan. Sabri added that his enterprise was exploring this segment and at this point, the potential of such machines in Pakistan was extremely strong.

-------------
According to Sabri, the biggest hurdle to the drone ecosystem was the absence of a dedicated policy to regulate drones. “Massive amount of work was done in this area and the government took a huge amount of stakeholders, including us, on board however the federal cabinet has not ratified it yet,” Sabri elaborated. “Until the policy takes effect, the arrangement of drone components and usage of drones will remain a huge challenge in Pakistan.”

[Riaz Haq]

#Military #Drones Tip the Balance in #Ethiopia’s Civil War. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pulled off a stunning reversal in the year-old conflict with the help of armed drones supplied by the #UAE, #Turkey and #Iran. #Africa #AbiyAhmed #Tigray #TPLF https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/20/world/africa/drones-ethiopia-war... .

“Increasingly, unmanned systems are becoming a game changer,” said Peter W. Singer, an expert on drone warfare at New America, a research group in Washington. “It’s not just about the raw capability of the drones themselves — it’s the multiplying effect they have on nearly every other human and system on the battlefield.”

For Mr. Abiy, the drones arrived just in time.

He launched a military campaign in Tigray in November 2020, a year after he won the Nobel Peace Prize, in coordination with the leader of neighboring Eritrea. But his forces suffered a humiliating defeat last summer when Tigrayan rebels forced them from Tigray, then started to push south. By late November the Tigrayans were approaching the city of Debre Birhan, about 85 miles north of Addis Ababa.

But they could go no further. Swarms of drones appeared overhead, striking soldiers and supply convoys, Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, a leading Tigrayan commander, said in an interview with The New York Times.

“At one time, there were 10 drones in the sky,” he said. “You can imagine the effect. We were an easy target.”

Mr. Abiy built his drone arsenal by tapping the sympathy of foreign autocrats and a booming segment of the global arms trade.

Even as he talked about negotiations, Mr. Abiy was turning to other countries to bolster his military. Nearly every day, cargo flights arrived from a military base in the United Arab Emirates, one of Mr. Abiy’s closest allies.

The Emiratis had trained Mr. Abiy’s Republican Guard and provided crucial military support at the start of the war, running drone strikes that took out Tigrayan artillery and weapons depots, a Western official and a former Ethiopian official said.

The Emirati strikes stopped in January after President Biden came to power, under pressure from Washington. But they have resumed in recent months, largely in the form of the latest Chinese-made drones, the officials said.

The Emirati drone strikes, under the direction of the national security adviser Tahnoun bin Zayed al-Nahyan, appear to be a snub to American diplomatic efforts to end the war. American officials say they are trying to draw the U.A.E. into peace efforts as an ally, but that cooperation is limited.

In a meeting with the United States regional envoy, Jeffrey Feltman, earlier this week, Sheikh al-Nahyan denied that his country was shipping weapons to Ethiopia, an American official with knowledge of the meeting said.

By contrast, Mr. Abiy’s dealings with Turkey have been relatively open.

He signed a military pact in August with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose Bayraktar TB2 drone played a decisive role in Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh. It is manufactured by a company run by Mr. Erdogan’s son-in-law.


Turkish drones are attractive to many African countries seeking battle-tested, relatively cheap hardware with few strings attached. “Even in Africa, everywhere I go, they want U.A.V.s,” Mr. Erdogan boasted in October after a tour of Nigeria, Togo and Angola. (Drones are also known as unmanned aerial vehicles).

After Bayraktar drones appeared in Ethiopia recently, Turkish officials insisted the drone sale was a purely commercial activity — defense and aviation exports to Ethiopia rose to $95 million this year, up from $235,000 in 2020, the Turkish Exporters Assembly reported.

But in recent days, Turkish officials have privately claimed to have frozen exports to Ethiopia, apparently in response to international pressure over a war that has become a byword for atrocities and starvation.

At least 400,000 people are living in famine-like conditions, according to the United Nations.