Pakistan Water Crisis: Facts and Myths

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan is believed to be in the midst of a water crisis that is said to pose an existential threat to the country. These assertions raise a whole series of questions on the source of the crisis and possible solutions to deal with it. The New Water Policy adopted in April 2018 is a good start but it needs a lot more focus and continuing investments.

Indus Water System. Courtesy: The Friday Times

Questions on Water Crisis: 

How severe is Pakistan's water crisis? Is India contributing to this crisis? How many million acre feet (MAF) of water flows in Pakistan? What are its sources? Glaciers? Rain? Groundwater? How much of it is stored in dams and other reservoirs? What is the trend of per capita water availability in Pakistan? What sectors are the biggest consumers of water in Pakistan? Why does agriculture consume over 95% of all available water? How can Pakistan produce "more crop per drop"? What are Pakistan's options in dealing with the water crisis? Build more dams? Recharge groundwater? Use improved irrigation techniques like sprinklers and drip irrigation? Would metering water at the consumers and charging based on actual use create incentives to be more efficient in water use?

Water Availability: 

Pakistan receives an average of 145 million acre feet (MAF) of water a year, according to the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) report. Water availability at various canal headworks is about 95 million acre feet (MAF).  About 50%-90% comes from the glacial melt while the rest comes from monsoon rains.  Additional 50 MAF of groundwater is extracted annually via tube wells.

Pakistan Water Availability. Source: Water Conference Presentation

The total per capita water availability is about 900 cubic meters per person, putting Pakistan in the water-stressed category.

India Factor: 

What is the impact of India's actions on water flow in Pakistan? Under the Indus Basin Water Treaty, India has the exclusive use of the water from two eastern rivers: Ravi and Sutlej. Pakistan has the right to use all of the water from the three western rivers: Chenab, Jhelum and Indus. However, India can build run of the river hydroelectric power plants with minimal water storage to generate electricity.

Currently, India is not using all of the water from the two eastern rivers. About 4.6 million acre feet (MAF) of water flows into Pakistan via Ravi and Sutlej. Water flow in Pakistan will be reduced if India decides to divert more water from Ravi and Sutlej for its own use.

Secondly, India can store water needed for run-of-the-river hydroelectric plants on the western rivers. When new hydroelectric projects are built on these rivers in India, Pakistan suffers from reduced water flows during the periods when these reservoirs are filled by India. This happened when Baglihar dam was filled by India as reported by Harvard Professor John Briscoe who was assigned by the World Bank to work on IWT compliance by both India and Pakistan.

Pakistan is also likely to suffer when India ensures its hydroelectric reservoirs are filled in periods of low water flow in the three western rivers.

Water Storage Capacity: 

Pakistan's water storage capacity in its various dams and lakes is about 15 million acre feet (MAF), about 10% of all water flow. It's just enough water to cover a little over a month  of water needed. There are several new dams in the works which will double Pakistan's water storage capacity when completed in the future.

Since 1970s, the only significant expansion in water storage capacity occurred on former President Musharraf's watch when Mangla Dam was raised 30 feet to increase its capacity by nearly 3 million acre feet (MAF). Musharraf increased water projects budget to Rs. 70 billion which was reduced to Rs. 51 billion by PPP government and further decreased to Rs. 36 billion by PMLN government.  It was only the very last PMLN budget passed by Shahid Khaqan Abbasi's outgoing government that increased water development allocation to Rs. 65 billion, a far cry from Rs. 70 billion during Musharraf years given the dramatic drop in the value of the Pakistani rupee.

Water Consumption: 

Domestic, business and industrial consumers use about 5 million acre feet while the rest is consumed by the agriculture sector to grow food. Just 5% improvement in irrigation efficiency can save Pakistan about 7.5 million acre feet , the same as the current storage capacity of the country's largest Tarbela dam.

Given the vast amount of water used to grow crops, there is a significant opportunity to save water and increase yields by  modernizing the farm sector.

National Water Policy:

Pakistan's Common Council of Interests (CCI) with the prime minister and the provincial chief ministers recently adopted a National Water Policy (NWP) in April 2018. It is designed to deal with “the looming shortage of water” which poses “a grave threat to (the country’s) food, energy and water security” and constitutes “an existential threat…”as well as “the commitment and intent” of the federal and provincial governments to make efforts “ to avert the water crisis”.

The NWP supports significant increases in the public sector investment for the water sector by the Federal Government from 3.7% of the development budget in 2017-18 to at least 10% in 2018-19 and 20% by 2030; the establishment of an apex body to approve legislation, policies and strategies for water resource development and management, supported by a multi- sectoral Steering Committee of officials at the working level; and the creation of a Groundwater Authority in Islamabad and provincial water authorities in each of the provinces.

More Crop Per Drop:

"More crop per drop" program will focus on improving water use efficiency by promoting drip and sprinkler irrigation in agriculture.

The Punjab government started this effort with the World Bank with $250 million investment.  The World Bank is now providing additional $130 million financing for the Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Productivity Improvement Program Phase-I.

The project is the Punjab Government's initiative called High-Efficiency Irrigation Systems (HEIS) to more than doubles the efficiency of water use. Under the project, drip irrigation systems have been installed on about 26,000 acres, and 5,000 laser leveling units have been provided. The additional financing will ensure completion of 120,000 acres with ponds in saline areas and for rainwater harvesting, and filtration systems for drinking water where possible, according to the World Bank.

Groundwater Depletion: 

 Pakistan, India, and the United States are responsible for two-thirds of the groundwater use globally,  according to a report by University College London researcher Carole Dalin.  Nearly half of this groundwater is used to grow wheat and rice crops for domestic consumption and exports.  This puts Pakistan among the world's largest exporters of its rapidly depleting groundwater.

Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources is working with  United States' National Air and Space Administration (NASA) to monitor groundwater resources in the country.

Water Stress Satellite Map Source: NASA

NASA's water stress maps shows extreme water stress across most of Pakistan and northern, western and southern parts of India.

The US space agency uses Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to measure earth's groundwater. GRACE’s pair of identical satellites, launched in 2002, map tiny variations in Earth's gravity. Since water has mass, it affects these measurements. Therefore, GRACE data can help scientists monitor where the water is and how it changes over time, according to NASA.

Aquifer Recharge:

Building large dams is only part of the solution to water stress in Pakistan. The other, more important part, is building structures to trap rain water for recharging aquifers across the country.

Typical Aquifer in Thar Desert

Pakistan's highly water stressed Punjab province is beginning recognize the need for replacing groundwater. Punjab Government is currently in the process of planning a project to recharge aquifers for groundwater management in the Province by developing the economical and sustainable technology and to recharge aquifer naturally and artificially at the available site across the Punjab. It has allocated Rs. 582.249 million to execute this project over four years.

Summary:

Pakistan is in the midst of a severe water crisis that could pose an existential threat if nothing is done to deal with it.  The total per capita water availability is about 900 cubic meters per person, putting the country in the water-stressed category. Agriculture sector uses about 95% of the available water. There are significant opportunities to achieve greater efficiency by using drop irrigation systems being introduced in Punjab. The New Water Policy is a good start but it requires continued attention with greater investments and focus to deal with all aspects of the crisis.

Here's a video discussion on the subject:

https://youtu.be/nrfF3ppBzpo

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Groundwater Depletion in Pakistan

Water Scarce Pakistan

Cycles of Drought and Floods in Pakistan

Pakistan to Build Massive Dams

Dust Bowl in Thar Desert Region

Dasht River in Balochistan

Hindus in Pakistan

[Riaz Haq]

China’s insertion into India-Pakistan waters dispute adds a further ripple in South Asia

By Beth Daley
Editor and General Manager

https://theconversation.com/chinas-insertion-into-india-pakistan-wa...


For 65 years, the Indus Waters Treaty has seen the two South Asian rivals share access and use of the Indus Basin, a vast area covered by the Indus River and its tributaries that also stretches into Afghanistan and China.

For much of that history, there has been widespread praise for the agreement as a successful demonstration of cooperation between adversarial states over a key shared resource. But experts have noted the treaty has long held the potential for conflict. Drafters failed to factor in the effects of climate change, and the Himalayan glaciers that feed the rivers are now melting at record rates, ultimately putting at risk the long-term sustainability of water supply. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict over Kashmir, where much of the basin is situated, puts cooperation at risk.

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Using water as a weapon?
With it’s rivalry with India and its desire to simultaneously work with Pakistan on numerous issues, China increasingly sees itself as a stakeholder in the Indus Waters Treaty, too. Chinese media narratives have framed India as the aggressor in the dispute, warning of the danger of using “water as a weapon” and noting that the source of the Indus River lies in China’s Western Tibet region.

Doing so fits Beijing’ s greater strategic presence in South Asian politics. After the terrorist attack, China Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed China’s support for Pakistan, showcasing the relationship as an “all-weather strategic” partnership and referring to Pakistan as an “ironclad friend.”

And in response to India’s suspension of the treaty, China announced it was to accelerate work on the significant Mohmand hydropower project on the tributary of the Indus River in Pakistan.

Chinese investment in Pakistan’s hydropower sector presents substantial opportunities for both countries in regards to energy security and promoting economic growth.

The Indus cascade project under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiative, for example, promises to provide cumulative hydropower generation capacity of around 22,000 megawatts. Yet the fact that project broke ground in Gilgit-Baltistan, a disputed area in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, underscores the delicacy of the situation.

Beijing’s backing of Pakistan is largely motivated by a mix of economic and geopolitical interests, particularly in legitimizing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. But it comes at the cost of stirring up regional tensions.

As such, the alignment of Chinese and Pakistani interests in developing hydro projects can pose a further challenge to the stability of South Asia’s water-sharing agreements, especially in the Indus Basin. Recently, the chief minister of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which borders China, warned that Beijing’s hydro projects in the Western Tibet region amount to a ticking “water bomb.”

To diffuse such tensions – and to get the Indus Waters Treaty back on track – it behooves India, China and Pakistan to engage in diplomacy and dialogue. Such engagement is, I believe, essential in addressing the ongoing water-related challenges in South Asia.

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Pakistan Winter Crops Water Use

Google Search Labs | AI Overview
Based on the available information, Pakistan's water usage for winter crops (Rabi season) is substantial, but precise figures in acre-feet for the entire country are difficult to pinpoint from the search results alone.
Here's what can be gathered:
Significant Water Usage: Agriculture accounts for over 90% of Pakistan's total water consumption.
Wheat is a Major Winter Crop: Wheat is a major Rabi (winter) crop in Pakistan, with cultivation beginning in November and harvesting in April/May. In the 2015/16 Rabi season, the estimated water availability for the entire season was 25.3 million acre feet (MAF), against an average usage of 23.7 MAF.

[Riaz Haq]

Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
It's done: China just launched the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo dam project (https://scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3318875/chinas-li-qia...).

It'll be by far the world’s largest hydroelectric facility, generating 3 times more electricity than the Three Gorges dam, 300 billion kilowatt-hours.

This dam project alone could power almost a quarter (21.6%) of all US households, since the average U.S. household consumes about 10,500 kilowatthours (kWh) of electricity per year (https://eia.gov/energyexplained/use-of-energy/electricity-use-in-ho...) and there are 132 million households in the US (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLHH).

It could also power the entirety of France and Italy COMBINED, since the average electricity consumption in France is 2 223 kWh per person per year (https://particuliers.engie.fr/electricite/conseils-electricite/cons...(4)), the scale is almost too unfathomable to believe.

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1946854532043899326

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China’s Li Qiang announces launch of Tibet mega dam project that has worried India
Premier Li Qiang attends groundbreaking ceremony for Yarlung Tsangpo dam on Tibetan Plateau with projected 300 billion kWh annual capacity

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3318875/chinas-li...

Meredith Chen
Published: 10:41pm, 19 Jul 2025Updated: 10:47pm, 19 Jul 2025
Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Saturday announced the launch of a mega dam project on the Tibetan Plateau, in what is expected to be the world’s largest hydroelectric facility.

The massive project, located in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, has raised concerns about water supply and environmental impact downstream in India and Bangladesh.
Li attended the dam’s groundbreaking ceremony in Nyingchi, a southeastern city in the Tibet autonomous region, state news agency Xinhua reported on Saturday.




The Yarlung Tsangpo becomes the Brahmaputra River as it leaves Tibet and flows south into India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states, and finally into Bangladesh.

Beijing first announced plans for the dam in 2020 under its five-year plan, as part of a broader strategy to exploit the hydropower potential of the Tibetan Plateau. The plan was approved last December.

The project is said to be the largest of its kind in the world, with an estimated annual capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity – three times that of the Three Gorges Dam.
However, it has raised concerns in India and Bangladesh about the impact on their water and food security. There are also worries about population displacement and major environmental disruption, as well as potential weaponisation of water by China, which could use the dam to cause floods or induce droughts.

China asserts that the project has undergone rigorous scientific evaluation and will not adversely affect the ecological environment, geological stability, or water resource rights of downstream countries. Beijing has also emphasised that it will not try to benefit at the “expense of its neighbours”.
Rather, the project could help in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts, and support climate change adaptation in downstream regions, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.

The dam has reportedly prompted India to speed up its own hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh to assert water resource rights.

India maintains that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of its territory, while China claims it as part of southern Tibet and has objected to other Indian infrastructure projects there.

The mega project in Tibet will have five cascade hydropower stations, with a total investment estimated at around 1.2 trillion yuan (US$167 billion), the Xinhua report said.

[Riaz Haq]

Tejasswi Prakash
@Tiju0Prakash
Modi government’s reckless suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has backfired, China has now begun construction on the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra) project.

By breaking international norms, Modi handed upper riparian states like China a perfect excuse to do the same.

This isn’t strategy, it’s self-sabotage. India’s water security is now at serious risk.
#OperationSindoor

https://x.com/Tiju0Prakash/status/1946948939434934573

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Dr. Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
The Assam chief minister’s comments on China’s super-dam project are not just ill-informed — they exemplify the dangerous distortions that foster complacency in India. https://moneycontrol.com/news/india/no-immediate-cause-for-worry-ov...

A river’s perennial flow is sustained by mountain springs, upland wetlands or peat bogs, glacial melt, and perennial tributaries. In the case of the Brahmaputra, these enduring water sources lie more in Tibet than in India. Within India, it is the intense monsoonal rains that swell the river seasonally.

China’s super-dam will disrupt the Brahmaputra’s natural flow of nutrient-rich sediment from the Himalayas — a lifeline for the river’s ecological health. Depriving the river of this sediment will erode riverbeds, destabilize banks, degrade natural habitats, and shrink the delta and estuaries, rendering them more vulnerable to sea-level rise.

The super-dam will also disrupt the Brahmaputra’s natural flooding cycle, which sustains fisheries and rejuvenates overworked soils. Without the seasonal delivery of silt, the floodplains of Assam and Bangladesh will lose their natural fertility.

https://x.com/Chellaney/status/1947316820349719007

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Dawn.com
@dawn_com
India's Arunachal Pradesh chief minister says that the project, barely 50km from the border, can dry out 80pc of the river in the state while potentially inundating downstream areas in Arunachal and neighbouring Assam state.

https://x.com/dawn_com/status/1947276507476267313

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Jayant Bhandari
@JayantBhandari5
Modi said he would shut off river water flow to Pakistan. He has no mechanism to implement this. Now, China is building a dam upstream of one of the most important Indian rivers. India sets itself up for mind-boggling embarrassment and humiliation.

https://x.com/JayantBhandari5/status/1947227265164574879

[Riaz Haq]

Why is China speeding up work on Pakistan dam after India held Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance?

https://youtu.be/PQeWyYeQOdI

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Could China’s Tibet mega dam help boost its sway with South Asian neighbours? | South China Morning Post

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3319326/could-chi...

China’s latest mega dam on the Tibetan Plateau could help draw neighbouring countries closer into its economic orbit by supplying electricity and boosting growth, analysts have argued.According to some estimates, the dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo will be the world’s biggest, producing up to 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity each year, three times the output of the Three Gorges Dam.State news agency Xinhua said over the weekend that its output would “primarily deliver electricity for external consumption” but would also meet local demand in Tibet.But the project has drawn concerns about the impact on water supply and ecological risks downstream in India and Bangladesh, where the river is known as the Brahmaputra, although Beijing has said it was not seeking to benefit at the “expense of its neighbours”.
India is also worried about Beijing’s efforts to strengthen its influence in South Asia, and Chinese observers said the project could help increase its sway over countries such as Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and Bangladesh, which have long struggled with power shortages.The project “will undoubtedly become a major power hub for surrounding countries and related neighbouring regions”, according to Zhu Feng, dean of the school of international studies at Nanjing University.

“It will have significant strategic value in boosting electricity supply and industrial growth in the surrounding regions,” he said.

It would also play an important role in driving economic cooperation with its neighbours, something Beijing has made a priority in light of its rivalry with the US.

Lin Minwang, deputy director of Fudan University’s Centre for South Asian Studies, said that in the long run, the hydropower project could help draw Southeast and South Asian countries more closely into China’s economic orbit through electricity exports.He said India might also benefit from the power generated from the dam, but border tensions would complicate the issue.
“The key issue is political relations,” said Lin. “Northeast India is a highly sensitive area for New Delhi, and if electricity is to be sent to Bangladesh, it would require a transit route.”India has already been investing heavily in hydropower projects in Nepal and Bhutan to secure its own supplies.“Whether those countries will choose China or India [for future power imports] is another much bigger question,” Lin added.
The dam will be built close to the border with India and flows through Arunachal Pradesh, an Indian-controlled state that China claims as part of southern Tibet. Beijing has previously objected to Indian infrastructure projects in the state.Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Beijing’s Renmin University, said the project was first of all designed to meet China’s own power needs, and “whether demand is sufficient in the present domestic economic downturn and whether it is environmentally less risky are other matters”.China has tried to address concerns about the environmental risk posed by the project and its impact on water supplies downstream, and said it would continue to strengthen cooperation with neighbouring countries.
Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Wednesday that the project “aims to accelerate the development of clean energy” and “comprehensive ecological and environmental protection measures” would be adopted.“It will, as a by-product, aggravate the tensions with India and attract some Asean [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] countries to China’s power diplomacy. So it has double effects both internal and external,” Shi said.