Pakistan Should Divide and Defeat the Taliban

[Riaz Haq]

Talks offer by Prime Minister Sharif has caused a significant rift in the  Pakistani Taliban leadership.  While Punjabi Taliban's leader Asmatullah Muawiya has welcomed the offer, leaders of the Pashtun Taliban have rejected it. The split has become more serious with the Pashtun Taliban's decision to remove Muawiya from his position as the leader of the Punjabi Taliban.

"The Taliban decision making body met under Commander Hakimullah Mehsud and decided that Asmatullah Muawiya has no relation with the TTP," Shahidullah Shahid, spokesman for the Hakimullah Mehsud-led Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), told news agency AFP. In response, Muawiya  has told The Associated Press that the Taliban shura had no authority to remove him because the Punjabi Taliban is a separate group. He said his group has its own decision-making body to decide leadership and other matters.

This split among the Taliban leadership should be seen by the Nawaz Sharif government as an opportunity to further divide and eventually defeat the various terrorist groups operating under the banner of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

As a first step of this divide-and-conquer strategy, Pakistani government should proceed with identifying numerous TTP factions who are ready to negotiate and begin talking with each of them separately.  Instead of making concessions, the government should prolong these separate negotiations to plant seeds of distrust and discord among the Taliban factions and let them fight and weaken each other.

As a second step, the government should selectively use the Pakistani military to attack various TTP factions one at a time to  reduce the TTP movement from a potent force to a mere nuisance which  can be managed and ultimately made irrelevant.

During this process, the government should disregard any Taliban sympathizers among politicians, military and bureaucracy who will try to influence the process in favor of the Taliban in the name of Islam to pursue their own selfish agendas.

Such a strategy will require deep thinking, persistence, good negotiating skills and selective use of decisive military force to end the scourge of terrorism from Pakistan's national landscape. It will  also require broad public support.

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[Riaz Haq]

Here's a WSJ piece on Nawaz Sharif's stand on Iran-Pakistan pipeline and Taliban Talks:

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said he would proceed with a plan to build a gas pipeline from Iran, despite objections from the U.S., and said that he plans to use his speech at the United Nations on Friday to hit out against American drone strikes in his country.

In an interview in New York with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Sharif also spelled out, for the first time, the conditions that Pakistani Taliban would have to accept if his government proceeds with a peace deal with the militant group, demanding that they lay down arms and recognize Pakistan's constitution. At the same time, he voiced fears that continued U.S. drone attacks would wreck his policy to negotiate with the Pakistani Taliban, a group closely linked to al Qaeda.

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In the interview Wednesday, Mr. Sharif acknowledged frictions with the U.S. but said he believed that the issues could be overcome. "President Obama was very kind to call me up immediately after my election and express his desire to work with Pakistan. I also want to work with the United States of America," he said.

The White House said Thursday that President Barack Obama and Mr. Sharif will meet Oct. 23 at the White House, part of what officials said was a broader effort to deepen ties.

A White House statement said terrorism and the economy will be among the topics discussed, but didn't mention the controversial pipeline. "The visit will highlight the importance and resilience of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship and provide an opportunity for us to strengthen cooperation on issues of mutual concern, such as energy, trade and economic development, regional stability, and countering violent extremism," the White House said in a statement.

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An inadequate supply of gas, used to produce electricity, is one of the main reasons for the crippling shortage of power in Pakistan. Mr. Sharif said Pakistan had a contractual obligation to go ahead with the agreement, or face penalties from Iran of $3 million a day if it is not completed by the end of next year. He said that in Islamabad's legal opinion, the pipeline wouldn't trigger the sanctions.

He said that Pakistan would proceed "unless you give us the gas, or the $3 million a day."

However, Pakistan still needs to find $1.5 billion to build the pipeline, which is already completed on the Iranian side, according to Tehran. Islamabad is also hoping that a change in Washington's stance on Iran after the election of Mr. Rouhani could help Pakistan avoid the sanctions.

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"The more the drones, the more the terrorists get multiplied. You kill one man, his sons, his father, his brothers, they become terrorists. So this is something that is not helping at all," said Mr. Sharif.

Washington believes the drones have been highly effective in killing senior al Qaeda commanders, Pakistani Taliban leaders and Afghan insurgents who use Pakistan's tribal areas, which border Afghanistan, as a sanctuary.

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In words not used in the offer of talks, Mr. Sharif, in the Journal interview, laid out the terms that would be available to the militants.

"They will have to renounce terrorism," said Mr. Sharif. "They [Pakistani Taliban] will have to abide by the constitution of Pakistan."

"It's been often said by them that they don't recognize the constitution of the country," he said. "But the constitution has to be recognized. If we agree on addressing this terrorism, they will have to be disarmed, lay down their arms."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303342104579099142009...

[Riaz Haq]

Here's a Dawn story on Pak Army training on IEDs used by the Taliban:

..They've been strapped to children's bicycles, hidden inside water jugs and even hung in tree branches.

But the most shocking place that Brig Basim Saeed has heard of such a device being planted was inside a hollowed-out book made to look like a copy of the holy Quran.

A soldier who went to pick up the book from the floor was killed when it exploded.
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Saeed and other instructors at the military's Counter IED, Explosives and Munitions School say it is important to constantly come up with new ways to prevent such homemade bombs because that's exactly what the militants are doing.

''Terrorists are also very brainy,'' Saeed said. ''They are using different techniques to defeat our efforts also. So we need to be very proactive.''

The Pakistani military has sharply ramped up efforts to deal with such devices in recent years as they have emerged as the militants' preferred weapon.

So far, 4,042 soldiers from the army and Frontier Corps have been killed and more than 13,000 wounded in the war on militants in the country's northwest since 2002, according to the Pakistani military.

The homemade bombs account for most of the casualties.

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The Pakistani military also has moved to restrict the availability of calcium ammonium nitrate-based fertilisers frequently used in Afghanistan, and to develop a fertiliser dubbed CAN+ that would work on Pakistan's soil but not detonate.

And it signed an agreement with the US last year designed to help the two countries work together to fight the roadside bombs by sharing information in areas such as militant tactics and funding.

US experts are to travel to Pakistan to supply it with hard-won knowledge earned in Iraq and Afghanistan. Separately, the British military has provided instruction.

The school's goal is to teach security forces where bombs can be hidden, how to look for them and their components and how to gather intelligence from them such as fingerprints so that authorities can track down militants.

''The success lies in identifying the network and busting them,'' said Lt Col Mohammed Anees Khan, an instructor. ''We need to go after those people who are making and planting those IEDs.''

The Associated Press was the first foreign media outlet to be allowed access to the facility, according to the Pakistani military.

During a recent visit, students were practicing using equipment to search for devices planted in the ground or using remote-controlled vehicles to approach possible explosive devices.

Others cleared a path to a suspected militant house and marked the path with yellow flags so that troops coming behind them would know where to walk.

The school is designed to mimic scenarios the security forces might find in real life in classes that last from three to eight weeks.

It includes a mock urban environment with a market, a gas station and other buildings, and explosive devices are even hidden in a pond and a graveyard.

Troops practicing a search of a residential compound may accidentally open a cupboard, setting off a loud buzzing that signals an explosion.

An escape tunnel leading from one of the houses is rigged with trip wires.

''We face it whenever we travel or if there is a compound, a path or some other place, it is always in our mind that there could be some IED,'' said one soldier at the school, Noor ul Ameen, who has served in the northwest and the insurgency-plagued Balochistan province...

http://www.dawn.com/news/1083996/inside-pakistan-armys-bomb-school

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan's National Internal Security Policy (NISP) Strategy; three tiers of strategy (short-, medium- and long-term); fire-fighting (short-term; police reforms/CT efforts); overhaul of laws and the criminal justice system (short- to medium-term); narrative-building (short-, medium- and long-term). The the policy has been approved by the federal cabinet and some of its salient points have come into the public domain http://newsweekpakistan.com/national-internal-security-policy-and-t...

[Riaz Haq]

Here's a NY Times report on Pakistan's troubled criminal justice system:

LONDON — Pakistan’s troubled criminal judicial system has failed to prosecute several notorious figures living there over the years, including Hafiz Saeed, the militant leader with a $10 million American reward on his head, and Osama bin Laden.

But Pakistani justice has not been hesitant with Musa Khan, a 9-month-old boy who faces charges of attempted murder and whose relatives have spirited him into hiding.

In a case that has heaped ridicule on the under-resourced police force, the baby boy was charged alongside four adults in connection with a violent protest in a Lahore slum in February. Slum residents threw stones at gas company workers who had tried to disconnect households that failed to pay their bills, leading the police to charge an entire family with attempted murder, including Musa.

The absurdity of the case became apparent last Thursday when the screaming child was produced in court, and had to be comforted with a milk bottle as a court official recorded his thumbprint.

“He does not even know how to pick up his milk bottle properly — how can he stone the police?” his grandfather Muhammad Yasin said to news service reporters outside the courthouse.

On Tuesday, Mr. Yasin said the family had moved the child to nearby Faisalabad for safety reasons, citing “pressure” from the authorities.

The case has attracted ridicule in the news media and provided fresh fodder for critics of the country’s dysfunctional judicial system, which frequently appears to suffer from misplaced priorities.

Crude police tactics played a central role in the prosecution of Musa, who was charged in February alongside his father and grandfather following the attack on the gas company workers. Lawyers say that the Pakistani police often lodge exaggerated complaints against poor families as a form of collective punishment.

The matter is likely to be quickly dropped. Shahbaz Sharif, the chief minister of Punjab Province and brother of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, has ordered an inquiry into the incident. The judge in the case has ordered the police to produce an explanation for the charges.

The child’s lawyer has argued that children under the age of 7 cannot be prosecuted under Pakistani law. Musa remains free on bail until his next hearing, scheduled for Saturday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/09/world/asia/rounding-up-suspects-p...

[Riaz Haq]

Here's Wall Street Journal on infighting among TTP Taliban factions in Pakistan:

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan—Fighting within the ranks of the Pakistani Taliban has stalled peace talks with the government as the militants' focus turns inward, militant commanders and officials said Friday.

A turf war between rival factions of the group, known formally as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, has claimed between 25 and 30 lives since Sunday in the country's tribal areas, say commanders of the militant group.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in September launched the talks, controversial among Pakistanis because the Pakistani Taliban has claimed the killing of thousands of civilians and security personnel, but they have yielded little progress after weeks. The initiative delayed the planned launch of a Pakistani army operation against the militants.

As the Taliban's cease-fire ended on Thursday, the internecine bloodshed has created a new hurdle in the talks process.

"Our interlocutors are badly split. Unless they can resolve this quickly, things aren't looking very bright," Rustam Shah Mohmand, one of the government representatives at the negotiations, told The Wall Street Journal. "The government is also dragging its feet."

"It appears that we're losing momentum. I fear that we're heading toward a dead end."

People with knowledge of the Pakistan army say the institution has concerns about the way the talks are dragging on.

Meanwhile, the U.S., which has targeted militants in the tribal area, has ceased drone strikes against the Pakistani Taliban since the negotiations policy was set, under an understanding between Islamabad and Washington, officials say.

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Militants and officials said the Haqqani network, an Afghan insurgent group also based in Pakistan's tribal areas, is trying to patch up differences between the warring Taliban factions, which come from the Mehsud tribe.

The Haqqani group has repeatedly intervened in internal Taliban disputes, fearing that such fighting will impede its ability to use the tribal areas as a sanctuary, analysts said.

"The Taliban shura [leadership] will now find it more difficult to come to a unanimous view," said Rahimullah Yusufzai, a veteran journalist who was formally part of the government negotiating team. "They will not give up on the option of talks at this stage. Both the Taliban and the government want to continue talks."

The infighting involves a faction led by Khan Said, known as Sajna, and a rival group led by a commander called Shehryar over leadership of the Taliban's powerful Mehsud wing. The conflict dates back to the enmity between two Mehsud commanders who were killed by U.S. drone strikes last year. Their deaths led to a militant outside the tribe, Mullah Fazlullah, taking control of the Taliban for the first time.
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Among the dead in recent days are three prominent commanders, militants said. The fighting, which has taken place close to the Afghan border in both North and South Waziristan, has included gunbattles and the firing of rockets and grenades. Some analysts said the government would prefer to deal with a united Taliban but others said the discord should be welcomed.

"There's nothing better for Pakistan than these terrorists killing each other," said Mehmood Shah, an analyst based in Peshawar who was formerly a senior security official for the tribal areas.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303603904579495...

[Riaz Haq]

Here's a Reuters' report on TTP infighting:

The head of the Pakistani Taliban is making a last-ditch bid to stamp his authority on the increasingly divided insurgency by ordering a top commander sacked, Taliban sources said Saturday.

Taliban head Maulana Fazlullah moved against Khan "Sajna" Said on Friday after weeks of bloody infighting in the powerful Mehsud tribe that supplies the bulk of the Pakistani Taliban fighters, they said. Scores of men have been killed.

The risk for Fazlullah is that Said might ignore him and battle on. Said is trying to wrest control of the Mehsud tribe - with its many weapons and lucrative smuggling routes and extortion business - from rival Shehryar Mehsud.

The factional fighting has complicated attempts by the Pakistani government to end the insurgency through peace talks it proposed in February. Some commanders are in favor of talks but others vowed to continue their insurgency.

"It's a test case for Maulana Fazlullah and his shura," a Taliban commander said, referring to the movement's leadership council. "It will determine their future."

"If Sajna is convinced and he stops fighting, it conveys a good message to rest of the Taliban factions," he said. "Otherwise it will be a setback for Fazlullah if Sajna refuses to obey his command."

Fazlullah has repeatedly appealed in vain to the two Mehsud rivals to stop fighting. An earlier peace deal brokered by the powerful Haqqani network of fighters fell through, undercutting the militants' ability to mount attacks against security forces.

CHALLENGED AUTHORITY

Notorious for ordering the attempted killing of schoolgirl activist Malala Yousafzai, Fazlullah is the first non-Mehsud leader of the Pakistani Taliban and has struggled to impose his authority on the powerful tribe.

He faced many challengers to become chief of the Pakistani Taliban last year after the death of the previous head in a drone strike. He has been hiding in Afghanistan since then.

But the time has come to exert his authority, a senior member of the Taliban said.

"Senior members of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan had tired of appealing (to the two rivals) to stop their clashes," he said.

The Taliban sources said Fazlullah turned to an influential hardline commander, Khalid Omar Khorasani, to appoint a new commander in place of Said, who wants to join the peace talks.

Khorasani, who opposes the talks, ordered the decapitation of 23 hostages from a government paramilitary force shortly after Islamabad announced its peace initiative.

Taliban commanders said Khorasani had been chosen to appoint a successor not just because of his hardline reputation, but because of his ability to unite various factions.

"All militant leaders respect him for his sacrifices in organizing all the militant factions and that's why Fazlullah gave him this difficult task," a Taliban commander said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/10/us-pakistan-taliban-fight...

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan Army Chief to PM #NawazSharif Govt: Implement National Action Plan. Finish the Job Against the #Taliban http://defnews.ly/1NLAIzT 

Ahead of a trip to Washington, Pakistan's Army Chief Gen. Raheel Sharif has sounded the alarm over the lack of follow-up by the government to secure hard-won benefits from the military's operation against the Pakistani Taliban (TTP).

Sharif was speaking on Monday during a corps Commanders Conference at Army HQ in Rawalpindi. A statement by the military's Inter Services Public Relations media branch said Sharif "underlined the need for matching/complementary governance initiatives for long-term gains of operation and enduring peace across the country. Progress of National Action Plan’s implementation, finalization of [Federally Administered Tribal Areas] reforms, and concluding all ongoing [joint investigation teams] at priority, were highlighted as issues, which could undermine the effects of operations."

The National Action Plan is a 20-point endeavor put in place by the government in January after the December 2014 TTP attack on a school in Peshawar that saw 145 killed (132 children) and 114 injured. 

Among other measures it aimed to provide a holistic approach to combating terrorism by implementing a series of criminal justice and financial reforms allowing for the curtailment of hate speech and organizations, raising new counterterrorism units, and improving the access to communications traffic available to the intelligence services. 

However, measures to clamp down on banned organizations, hate speech and terrorism financing, and the planned reform of religious schools, have not met with the desired progress.

Completing investigations into terrorism cases by the Joint Investigation Teams and much-needed improvements in governance in cleared areas of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) are cause for particular concern, analysts said. 

Under these circumstances Claude Rakisits, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center, says Sharif's concern is unsurprising.

"It is a well-known fact in the counterterrorism business that, unless civilian administrators immediately implement governance plans, such as rebuilding destroyed schools, hospitals and other social services at the end of a military operation, all the hard-won gains made by the military can very quickly disappear," he said.

Adding, "While it is very important to diminish the terrorist and insurgence threat by degrading the fighters' military capability, it is probably just as important, if not more, to deal with the civilian population which has to return to those areas which have been devastated by the fighting.

"Accordingly, the basic societal needs of the general population, which has been fundamentally traumatized, displaced and probably physically hurt, must be met quickly, effectively and with compassion. Not to do so would lead to an already dissatisfied population possibly longing for the days before the military operations."

But in this realm, the military has little influence, Rakisits said. 

Very familiar with the areas where the anti-TTP operations are ongoing, analyst, author, and former Australian defense attache Brian Cloughley agrees the military is limited in what it can do, but highlights the issue of religious schools.

"The Army can't be blamed for being frustrated over the failure to get tough about madrassas," he said.