Pakistan Revives Reko Diq: One of The World's Largest Undeveloped Copper-Gold Deposits

[Riaz Haq]

Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold Corporation and the governments of Pakistan and Balochistan have reached a deal to restart the Reko Diq mining project. Reko Diq is the world's 4th largest undeveloped copper-gold porphyry deposit with over 14 million tons of copper and 21 million ounces of gold. The project was abandoned in 2011 after a Pakistan Supreme Court bench headed by former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry canceled the mining license granted to Tethyan Copper Company (TCC), a joint venture between Canada's Barrick Gold and Antofagasta Minerals of Chile. TCC challenged the cancellation in the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Dispute (ICSID). On July 12, 2019, the ICSID Tribunal awarded TCC $5.894 billion plus interest of  $700,000 per day in damages against Pakistan. As of 1 March 2022, the award stood at $6.5 billion. The new agreement between Barrick Gold Corporation  and the governments of Pakistan and Balochistan does away with this award. It also increases the share of the project owned by Pakistan from 25% to 50%, brings in $10 billion investment, the largest single investment in the country, and creates 8,000 jobs. Reko Diq is part of the Tethyan metallogenic belt (TMB) that extends from the Balkans in Europe to Pakistan including Serbo-Macedonian, Anatolian, Takab, Kerman and Chagai metallogenic belts. It is believed to be rich in copper and gold deposits.

Reko Diq Copper-Gold Mine

New Reko Diq Deal: 

The new agreement to start Reko Diq waives the ICISD award. In the reconstituted project, Barrick will have 50% ownership and Pakistan 50%, comprising a 10% free-carried, non-contributing share held by the government of Balochistan, an additional 15% held by a special purpose company owned by the government of Balochistan and 25% owned by other federal state-owned enterprises. The federal government’s shares of 25% will be divided equally amongst three state-owned entities (SOE): Oil & Gas Development Corporation Limited (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), and Government Holdings Pakistan Limited (GHPL). This is a huge improvement over the prior deal that gave the Balochistan government 25% stake in the project, with Tethyan holding the remaining 75%.

A separate agreement provides for Barrick’s partner Antofagasta PLC to be replaced in the project by the Pakistani parties, according to a statement released by Barrick Gold Corporation. Pakistan will buy out Antofagasta’s interest in the mine for $900 million, according to the two companies and the government. 

Production Targets/Social Infrastructure Projects:

When the project goes into production in 5 or 6 years time of development, it will produce 200,000 tons of copper and 250,000 ounces of gold a year for more than half a century. At current prices, the annual copper output will be $2 billion and gold output $500 million. 

The project’s development will bring in investment of approximately $10 billion in Balochistan, including $1 billion which would be invested in social uplift projects such as roads, schools, hospitals, and the creation of a technical training institute for mining. The investment is also said to result in the creation of over 8,000 jobs, according to a report in The Express Tribune newspaper. 

Future Potential:

Reko Diq is part of the Tethyan metallogenic belt (TMB) that extends from the Balkans in Europe to Pakistan including Serbo-Macedonian, Anatolian, Takab, Kerman and Chagai metallogenic belts. It is believed to be rich in copper and gold deposits. 

“Reko Diq could also be the springboard for further exploration and other mineral discoveries along the highly prospective Tethyan Metallogenic Belt,” said Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow. 

Foreign Direct Investment:

After reaching a peak of over $5 billion in 2007, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan has plummeted. It is at least in part attributable to bad decisions by the Pakistan Supreme Court headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. Cancellation of the Pakistan Steel Mills privatization by the Chaudhry court in 2006. That decision alone has cost Pakistani taxpayers $100 million a year.  Then came the Chaudhry court's decision cancelling the Reko Diq license and the $6.5 billion award against Pakistan. These decisions had a chilling effect on foreign investment in Pakistan. Let us hope the revival of the Reko Diq project helps restore confidence of foreign investors in the country. Let us also hope that this history of unwise court decisions serves as a reminder to the Pakistani judiciary to be more careful in deciding such cases in future. 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Shaukat Aziz's Economic Legacy in Pakistan

Saving Pakistan's Education, Steel Mill, Railway and PIA

Politics of Patronage Trumps Public Policy 

Iftikhar Chaudhry Scared Away Foreign Investors

Musharraf Earned Legitimacy by Good Governance

Vindictive Judges Pursue Musharraf

Rare Earths at Reko Diq?

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

[Riaz Haq]

Barrick and Pakistan Review Progress on Reko Diq Project

https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2022/barrick-and-...


Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD)(TSX:ABX) president and chief executive Mark Bristow says the process of completing the final agreements and legal steps that would enable the development of the Reko Diq project is making steady progress. Once the transaction is completed, Reko Diq, one of the largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits in the world, will be owned 50% by Barrick, 25% by Balochistan province and 25% by major Pakistani state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

He was speaking after a four-day visit to Pakistan during which he and the project team held discussions with prime minister Shehbaz Sharif and Balochistan chief minister Abdul Quddus Bizenjo and their teams, as well as Barrick’s SOE partners. With the approval of Pakistan president Dr Arif Alvi, the necessary documents for the Presidential Reference were filed on Saturday with the country’s supreme court, a significant process milestone.

During the course of the trip, the Barrick team also visited Balochistan’s Chagai District, which hosts Reko Diq, to brief local leaders and community stakeholders on the project, which will bring enormous benefits to the region in the form of employment, skills and economic development, as well as community initiatives focused on food security, environmental management and access to healthcare, education and potable water.

Bristow says Barrick is setting up community development committees (CDCs) to identify priority projects and supervise their implementation.

“Barrick has been built on successful partnerships with our host countries, and these encompass the full range of stakeholders, from governments through suppliers to the communities around our mines. Our CDC model provides a transparent and accountable mechanism for tailoring development programmes to the needs of these communities with their full participation,” he says.

Once the current legal processes have been finalised, Barrick will complete its update of the feasibility study, which currently envisages an open-pit operation with a life of more than 40 years. It is envisaged that the project will be built in two phases at an initial estimated capital cost1 of approximately $7 billion and is expected to go into production between 2027 and 2028.

While in Pakistan Bristow announced that Barrick was donating an additional $150,000 to the Balochistan flood relief fund, bringing the company’s total contribution to $300,000.

[Riaz Haq]

REMs – the most precious commodities
Pakistan should hire experts, finance rare earth metal projects through budget


https://tribune.com.pk/story/2207557/rems-precious-commodities


REMs constitute a group of 17 elements that occur together in the periodic table, including yttrium and 15 lanthanides. The use of REMs within industrial sectors is both high stakes and high wager.

These sectors include defence, electronics, medicinal, industrial, automotive, etc and they are used in specialised applications such as aircraft engines, nuclear batteries, lasers, magnets, optic fibres, high-strength alloys, superconductors, storage disks, signal amplifiers, to name a few.

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REMs deposits in Pakistan have been discovered in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (Koga, Tarbela, Jawar), Gilgit-Baltistan (Gilgit, Skardu), and Balochistan (Reko Diq, Chagai, Saindak).

Initial geochemical analysis showed that 12 out of 17 REMs had been found with varying potential. Still, the exact size is yet to be determined and required an in-depth exploration study. REMs are the most precious commodities today and Pakistan needs to place maximum bets on it to cash in on the opportunities. Realistically, Pakistan is not a manufacturing or a processing country, hence, it should earmark the commerce potential with both revenue from sales and barter trade.

Due to REMs strategic importance, an organisational setup should be put in place, under the prime minister, and in close collaboration with supporting arms of armed forces and Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission.

The entire exercise can be done in stages with exploration, extraction, ramp-up production and global marketing with mass production over a five-year timeline.

Experts should be freshly hired or may be brought from different government departments (Geological Survey of Pakistan, Survey of Pakistan, Khan Laboratories, etc), including geologists, radiometric surveyors, drilling/smelting specialists, and security experts.

The project financing should come from the national budget under the ambit of “special strategic projects”. The global REMs market is valued at $10 billion with an 8-10% CAGR and production of 170,000 tons per annum by 2022. If Pakistan secures 2-5% of this market share – with annual output of 3,500-8,500 tons, it can inject $1-2 billion per year into the national pocket over the next five to seven years.

This could change Pakistan’s international status as a high-value player at a high stakes table in the global arena.

The writer is a PhD in Engineering from the University of Cambridge, United Kingdom. He currently serves as Vice President of Core Group in Pakistan

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan's top court endorses #Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold's $10 billion #investment at Reko Diq in #Balochistan. It is one of the world's largest underdeveloped sites of #copper and #gold deposits.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/pakistans-court-endorses-settl...


Pakistan's Supreme Court endorsed on Friday a settlement for Barrick Gold (ABX.TO) to resume mining at the Reko Diq project, one of the world's largest underdeveloped sites of copper and gold deposits, it said in an order.

The endorsement was a condition of the settlement for Barrick to resume work on the project in the southwestern province of Balochistan, bordering Afghanistan and Iran, in which it will invest $10 billion.


Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial, the head of a five-judge panel, read out the operative part of the brief order in court.

"The agreements ... have not been found by us to be unconstitutional or illegal on the parameters and grounds spelt out," read the order seen by Reuters.

President Arif Alvi had asked the court to review the deal.

In an out of court agreement this year, Barrick Gold ended a long-running dispute with Pakistan, and agreed to restart development.

Under the deal, the company withdrew its case in an international arbitration court, which had slapped a penalty of $11 billion on Pakistan for suspending the contracts of the company and its partners in 2011.

The company's licence to mine the untapped deposits was cancelled after the Supreme Court ruled illegal the award granted to it and its partner, Chile's Antofagasta (ANTO.L).

Antofagasta had agreed to exit the project, saying its growth strategy was focused on production of copper and by-products in the Americas.

Pakistan's mineral-rich province of Balochistan is home to both Islamist militants and separatist Baloch insurgents, who have engaged in insurgency against the government for decades, demanding a greater share of the region's resources.

[Riaz Haq]

Barrick will invest $4 billion in the first phase of construction at Riko Deq that will create 7,500 jobs (mostly locals). In the second phase, $3-4 billion will be invested and that will generate 4,800 long term employment.

https://www.barrick.com/English/operations/reko-diq/default.aspx


A world class copper-gold mine in the making
One of the largest undeveloped copper-gold projects in the world, Reko Diq is owned 50% by Barrick, 25% by three federal state-owned enterprises, 15% by the Province of Balochistan on a fully funded basis and 10% by the Province of Balochistan on a free carried basis.

The reconstitution of the Reko Diq project was completed in December 2022 — a key step in progressing the development of Reko Diq into a world-class, long-life mine which would substantially expand Barrick’s strategically significant copper portfolio and benefit its Pakistani stakeholders for generations to come.

Barrick is now updating the project’s 2010 feasibility and 2011 feasibility expansion studies. This should be completed by 2024, with 2028 targeted for first production.

Project scope
Reko Diq is expected to have a life of at least 40 years as a truck-and-shovel open pit operation with processing facilities producing a high-quality copper-gold concentrate. Construction is expected in two phases with a combined process capacity of 80 million tonnes per annum.

Significant and lasting economic and social benefits to Balochistan and Pakistan
Reko Diq will be a major contributor to Pakistan’s economy which is expected to have a transformative impact on the underdeveloped Balochistan province where, in addition to the economic benefits it will generate, the mine will also create jobs, promote the growth of a regional economy and invest in development programs. The province’s interest in the mine will be fully funded, which means that Balochistan will reap the dividends, royalties and other benefits of its 25% shareholding without having to contribute financially to its construction and operation.

Employment
During peak construction the project is expected to employ 7,500 people, and once in production, it will create around 4,000 long-term jobs. Barrick prioritizes the employment of local people and host country nationals at our operations worldwide.

[Riaz Haq]

Barrick Gold strikes final deal with Pakistan for Reko Diq project
Published by Joe Toft, Editorial Assistant
Global Mining Review

https://www.globalminingreview.com/mining/30122022/barrick-gold-str...

Barrick Gold Corporationhas announced that it has completed the reconstitution of the Reko Diq project, having received a favourable opinion from the Supreme Court of Pakistan and the required legislation having been passed into law.
One of the largest undeveloped copper-gold projects in the world, Reko Diq is owned 50% by Barrick, 25% by three federal state-owned enterprises, 15% by the Province of Balochistan on a fully funded basis and 10% by the Province of Balochistan on a free carried basis.

Barrick president and chief executive Mark Bristow said the completion of the legal processes was a key step in progressing the development of Reko Diq into a world-class, long-life mine which would substantially expand the company’s strategically significant copper portfolio and benefit its Pakistani stakeholders for generations to come.

“We are currently updating the project’s 2010 feasibility and 2011 feasibility expansion studies. This should be completed by 2024, with 2028 targeted for first production,” Bristow said.

“With its unique combination of large scale, low strip and good grade, Reko Diq is expected to have a life of at least 40 years. We envisage a truck-and-shovel open cast operation with processing facilities producing a high-quality copper-gold concentrate. We expect it to be constructed in two phases with a combined process capacity of 80 million tpy.

Reko Diq will be a major contributor to Pakistan’s economy which is expected to have a transformative impact on the underdeveloped Balochistan province where, in addition to the economic benefits it will generate, the mine will also create jobs, promote the growth of a regional economy and invest in development programs. The province’s interest in the mine will be fully funded, which means that Balochistan will reap the dividends, royalties and other benefits of its 25% shareholding without having to contribute financially to its construction and operation.

“Reko Diq’s ownership structure is a further manifestation of Barrick’s commitment to partnership with its host countries and communities and to sharing the value our operations create fairly with all our stakeholders,” Bristow said.

“We’re making sure that Balochistan and its people will see these benefits quickly. Starting early next year, Barrick will implement a range of social development programs prioritising the improvement of healthcare, education, vocational training, food security and the provision of potable water. Our investment in these is expected to amount to around US$70 million over the feasibility and construction period. In addition, Reko Diq will advance royalties to the government of Balochistan of up to US$50 million until commercial production starts.”

During peak construction the project is expected to employ 7500 people and once in production it will create around 4000 long-term jobs. As elsewhere in the group, Barrick prioritises the employment of local people and host country nationals.

Bristow said Barrick already had the industry's best gold assets and the addition of Reko Diq would promote its copper portfolio into the world-class league, accelerating the company towards its goal of creating the world's most valued gold and copper mining business.

[Riaz Haq]

Surging demand for copper means its price is rising too

https://www.marketplace.org/2023/01/24/surging-demand-for-copper-me...

The world cannot seem to get enough copper. This metal is mined in places as disparate as China, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Utah.

Copper prices have risen around 10% since the start of this year, in part because the metal is crucial to renewable energy technology and the transition away from fossil fuels.

Copper is often referred to as “Dr. Copper,” because it’s considered a barometer for the health of the global economy.

Traders like to play off that saying, according to Bobby Iaccino, co-founder of Path Trading Partners.

“They say copper has a Ph.D. in economics,” he said. “That still doesn’t really explain it, OK? So anywhere where there’s electricity, there’s copper usage.”

Demand for copper is especially high now as the market for renewable energy expands, said Michael Klare, a professor emeritus at Hampshire College.

“You’re going to need a lot more copper for wiring to connect various sources of renewable energy — wind farms and solar farms — to wherever you’re going to use the renewable energy,” Klare said.

And in electric vehicles, the amount of copper needed can be more than double what’s used to make traditional gas-powered vehicles.

This year’s surge in copper prices is in part due to China and its emergence from pandemic-related shutdowns, said Rohan Reddy, director of research at Global X ETFs.

“China makes up about half of all global copper demand. So typically, there’s a saying, ‘As China goes, so does copper,'” Reddy said.

That’s the other copper adage you’ll hear a lot — and one that seems to be holding true. The question now is what happens next in China, said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy for TD Securities.

“We continue to see a very significant amount of infections in that country,” Melek said. “And that is something that will take time to work its way through.”

That’s why Melek’s call on copper for the coming months is relatively cautious. Rising interest rates, a potential global economic slowdown — all of it, he said, could take the shine off copper demand.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan is sitting on a gold mine


https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/pakistan-is-sittin...


The Reko Diq mine, renowned for its massive gold and copper deposits, is thought to contain the fifth-largest gold deposit in the world.


Reko Diq is a small desert village in the Balochistan district of Chagai, 70 kilometers northwest of Naukundi and close to Pakistan's border with Iran and Afghanistan. This region is situated within the Tethyan belt, which extends from Turkey and Iran to Pakistan. Reko Diq, which in Balochi means "sandy mountain," is also the name of an extinct volcano.

The Reko Diq mine, renowned for its massive gold and copper deposits, is thought to contain the fifth-largest gold deposit in the world. The mine is in a small desert area in the northeast of Balochistan, near the border with Iran and Afghanistan.

600,000 tons of concentrate produce an estimated 200,000 tons of copper and 250,000 ounces of gold on a yearly basis. The annual profit from the mines is estimated by the TCC to be approximately $1.14 billion for copper and $2.50 billion for gold, totaling $3.64 billion annually. Independent estimates suggest the number is as high as $500 billion, which is significantly higher than the TCC's estimation of $200 billion.

[Riaz Haq]

Barrick Gold Corporation - Reko Diq Mining Company Constitutes Community Development Committee for Locally Driven Development



https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2023/reko-diq-con...


NOKKUNDI, BALOCHISTAN – Reko Diq Mining Company (RDMC), a subsidiary of Barrick Gold Corporation, has constituted a 25-member Community Development Committee (CDC) at Nokkundi in the Chagai district. The CDC comprises local stakeholders and community leaders who will guide the company’s social investment plan in the area.

Speaking at the event, Ali Ehsan Rind, the country manager of RDMC said: “In all its operations worldwide, Barrick strives to be a good corporate citizen and a genuine partner of the host communities in locally led development. With the formation of this CDC, representing all the key local stakeholders, I am confident that our work will become a catalyst for the social development of the local communities.”

The meeting was also attended by the district commissioner of Chaghi, the deputy director of mines (Balochistan), tribal elders, local notables and a cross-section of representatives from the district.

The Nokkundi CDC was formulated after an extensive consultative process and engagement with 62 stakeholders. Its mandate includes consultation for consensus on the selection of social investment initiatives to be undertaken by the company.

Community Development Committees
CDCs are our community development partnership model, comprised of community members, elected locally and include a representative from the company to ensure projects chosen align with the five sustainable development focus areas and adhere to our policies including procurement and accountable governance.
The formation of this CDC is a concrete step taken by RDMC to ensure that the business delivers social investment projects of significant and lasting benefit to the local communities among whom it will operate. The management of RDMC values sustainable development and mutual advantage and seeks to build a harmonious partnership amongst the communities in and around the RD project area.

Reko Diq will be a multi-generational mine with a life of at least 40 years. During peak construction the project is expected to employ 7,500 people and once in production it will create 4,000 long-term jobs. Barrick’s policy of prioritizing local employment and suppliers will have a positive impact on the local economy. The company plans to finish the Reko Diq feasibility study update by the end of 2024, with 2028 targeted for first production from the giant copper-gold mine in the country’s Balochistan province. The new Reko Diq agreement ensures that benefits from the project start accruing to the people of Balochistan well before the mine goes

[Riaz Haq]

The Mining World Turns to Saudi Cash for Critical Metal Supply


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mining-world-turns-saudi-cash-115310...


(Bloomberg) -- A $2.6 billion deal announced last week has set the stage for a potentially landmark shift in the metal and mining investment landscape: the arrival of Saudi Arabia as a pivotal player.

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But Saudi Arabia offers something else beyond cold cash: political backing for companies looking to expand into the Muslim world as deposits in more traditional jurisdictions are depleted.

Canada’s Barrick has been in talks with the Public Investment Fund about a potential stake in its Reko Diq copper project in Pakistan, which is a relatively untouched frontier for the international mining industry, according to people familiar with the matter. Bringing the Saudis on board would not only ease Barrick’s funding burden, but also introduce a partner that has significant political influence in Pakistan, the people said.

Spokespeople for the PIF and Barrick did not comment.

Saudi Arabia’s deep pockets may also present some challenges for the biggest producers who are looking for deals of their own. Keen to get more exposure to copper and nickel, miners have started writing the biggest checks in more than a decade. BHP Group and Rio Tinto Group — the two largest — have just completed multi-billion dollar deals to grow in copper, while Glencore Plc tried to buy Teck Resources Ltd.

For years, the big producers have found themselves repeatedly outbid by Chinese companies when it comes to buying mines. China’s state-owned metal and mining companies have been willing to pay valuations that western firms simply couldn’t match. Saudi Arabia now seems willing to do the same, potentially putting some deals beyond the reach of the industry’s traditional buyers.

Executives at two of the biggest mining companies, which have spent years assessing base metal assets such as those owned by Vale, said privately that they were surprised by the price tag in last week’s deal, which valued the unit at $26 billion (RBC Capital Markets said it was worth about $21 billion.)

Still, unlike Chinese companies, Saudi Arabia is currently more interested in securing stakes — guaranteeing future supply of critical minerals — rather than buying outright and then operating the assets.

Saudi Arabia set down a marker earlier this year when it announced the new firm to invest in mining assets globally, with $3.2 billion for initial investments. The country holds an annual mining conference, which this year featured the CEO of the world’s biggest mining company, BHP’s Mike Henry, as well as the chairman of no. 2 producer Rio Tinto — a major step up from past speakers. CEOs from other top miners are expected to attend next year.

For mining companies looking for funds, the US and Canadian governments’ recent crackdown on Chinese investment in key metals companies has changed the investment landscape. That’s given an opening to Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia to fill the gap.

“Everything’s changed,” said Friedland.

“The American government has an ‘ABC’ policy: Anything But China. So the American government instead goes to rulers in the Middle East and says, “You should be giving the African people an alternative for financing mines in Africa. Recycle some of those petro-dollars.”

[Riaz Haq]

#Arab Gulf Nations (#SaudiArabia, #Qatar, #UAE) Poised to Invest Billions in #Pakistan.
#Islamabad’s powerful #military has sought to ease the path for oil-rich monarchies to acquire stakes in #mining (#copper, #gold) & #energy (#refinery) https://www.wsj.com/articles/gulf-nations-poised-to-invest-billions... via @WSJ

The Saudis are in talks to buy into a copper mine being developed at a cost of $7 billion by Canada’s Barrick Gold in western Pakistan, according to people familiar with the project. Separately, negotiations are at an advanced stage to set up a Saudi oil refinery in Pakistan, which could cost up to $14 billion, according to Islamabad and Gulf officials.

For the Gulf states, the deals represent a shift from when they provided loans or grants to poorer countries in the region, such as Pakistan or Egypt, to a new focus on acquiring assets for their sovereign-wealth funds.

Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of 240 million, has been racked by an economic crisis and political instability. It reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund in June on another bailout.

Its powerful military, which has clamped down on political freedoms in recent months, is seeking to ease the path for investment by streamlining the deal-making process for Gulf investors, who had complained about red tape and political indecision in the past.

Mining, energy infrastructure, farmland and privatizations of Pakistani government businesses could all be part of the planned selloff to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which are increasingly competing for assets in struggling political allies.

This summer, Islamabad established the Special Investment Facilitation Council, which includes the army chief, to smooth the bureaucratic path for Gulf investment.

“Pakistan is strategically located, at the junction of the engines of growth in Asia, between south Asia, central Asia, China and the Middle East,” said Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan’s departing planning minister, who also heads the executive committee of the Special Investment Facilitation Council. “There is a very big opportunity for investors to come here, as long as we can give them assurance that there will be continuity of policy for their investment.”

The Saudi deputy mining and foreign ministers visited Islamabad this month for talks about the investment initiative.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Wednesday that Parliament would dissolve, ahead of elections that are likely to be delayed into next year. The installment of a nonpolitical caretaker government in Islamabad in the next few days, to oversee the period up to the next election, is expected to kick-start the deals. New powers have been given to the caretaker administration, which will likely be under even greater influence of the military, to enable it to make major economic decisions.

The army is Pakistan’s dominant institution, a permanent power in a country where no prime minister has completed a term in office. The Gulf has long dealt directly with Pakistan’s army, the sixth largest in the world, which has provided a contingent of troops to Saudi Arabia for decades. The first overseas trip for Pakistan’s current army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, was to Saudi Arabia, where he met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in January.

A splurge in Pakistan is expected to come from government-owned entities in the Gulf, which in recent years have invested in Egypt, a country also in the midst of an asset sale, as well as Sudan, Ethiopia and elsewhere in the Horn of Africa.

“For the Gulf, Pakistan and Egypt are a regional security priority,” said Karen E. Young, a researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “They absolutely cannot afford to see a failed state in Egypt or Pakistan.”