New Net Metering Policy: Is Pakistan's Solar Boom in Jeopardy?

[Riaz Haq]

Recent experience in California has shown that changes in incentives have a huge impact on residential adoption of solar power technology. Since the introduction of NEM 3.0 last year, new rooftop solar business in California has dramatically slowed. New residential solar installation applications have plunged 80%, according to Cal Matters. This has driven many solar installers out of business. The business that remains is mostly focused on adding batteries to existing solar installations. 

Impact of California NEM 3.0 on Solar Business. Source: Cal Matters

California Net Energy Metering (NEM 3.0) was launched last year after heavy lobbying by the state's utility companies like PGE and SoCal Edison. It has reduced payments for the excess power exported by the consumer to the grid by 75%. This change means that the consumer is better off with storage batteries to maximize self-consumption of the power generated by the solar panels. Companies such as Tesla Solar with its PowerWall 3 battery are the main beneficiaries of this change. 

With rapidly falling solar panel prices, Pakistan is experiencing a solar power boom. The country imported some 13 gigawatts of solar modules in the first six months of the year, making it the third-largest destination for Chinese exporters, according to Bloomberg.   In addition, there is approximately 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of net-metered rooftop solar PV capacity connected to the grid by June 2024, according to IEEFA. 

What is likely to happen to this solar boom as Islamabad considers changes to its net metering policy? A recent study published by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) attempts to answer this question. 

Net Metering vs Net Billing Payback Period in Pakistan. Source: IEEFA

There are several proposals under consideration by the Pakistani government to change its net metering policy. All are designed to significantly reduce payments to the consumer for energy exported to the grid. One of these proposals likely to be adopted is to switch from "Net Metering" to "Net Billing". 

Net metering transactions are usually one-to-one, so the credits are often equal to the retail rate of electricity (aka what you pay). Net billing credits are often equal to the wholesale rate of electricity (aka what your utility pays), which is less than the retail rate, according to Energy Sage. Utilities tend to oppose net metering programs, so alternative compensation programs are increasingly being used. 

Analysis by Haneea Isaad, an Energy Finance Specialist at IEEFA, shows that the switch from net metering to net billing would still reduce the payback period for 5kW to 25kW solar systems combined with 50% to 70% self-consumption. She concludes that the payback period will be well under 4 years for a system that has a life of 25 to 30 years. It is better than the 5-year payback period in California under NEM 3.0. 

Would consumers without solar be stuck with high electricity bills? It is quite likely because capacity charges paid to independent power producers (IPPs) accounted for 62% of energy expenditure in Pakistan for the 2023-2024 fiscal year. For the 2024-2025 fiscal year, 64% of the total power purchase price is expected to be fixed capacity costs. Lower consumption of grid electricity will result in a disproportionate impact on consumers who rely entirely on grid power.  

Higher levels of self-consumption closer to 100% would require larger batteries which are still quite expensive in Pakistan. This is likely to change as traditional lead-acid battery makers switch to lithium ion batteries in the country. Recent launches of electric vehicle assembly plants in Pakistan are expected to boost the lithium-ion battery production and bring down prices in the country in the coming years, according to Mordor Intelligence. 

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Pakistan's Response to Climate Change

IPP Contacts Bankrupting Pakistan

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Net Metering in Pakistan

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[Riaz Haq]

Budget 2024-25: Production of solar panels, inverters and batteries becomes cheaper - Must Read - Aaj English TV

https://english.aaj.tv/news/330365159/budget-2024-25-production-of-...

According to the finance bill, the government has eliminated all taxes on machinery and equipment used in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries, most of these were subjected to taxes ranging from 5% to 20%.

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Pakistan’s energy system strained by surge in solarization, battery tech

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1215486-pakistan-s-energy-system-s...

ISLAMABAD: The rapid solarization and advancements in battery technology are increasingly challenging Pakistan’s existing energy system.

The influx of over 7,000 megawatts of imported capacity, coupled with some industrialists and bulk consumers installing in-house plants of up to 1.5 megawatts, threatens to disrupt long-term agreements with Independent Power Producers (IPPs).

This situation is exacerbated by mounting frustration among power consumers, who are being burdened with substantial multi-billion-rupee capacity charges on their monthly bills.

The provincial governments, especially Punjab and Sindh’s distribution of solar panels to the public, will further pressurise the system, as they will now be drawing less from the grid and so the burden of capacity charges will increase and ultimately the tariff, which will further take away consumers from the grid power.

“Various bulk consumers have done aggressive solarization, even they installed capacity of up to 1.5 megawatts and have kept the grid at backup,” Chairman Nepra Waseem Mukhtar said while presiding over a public hearing on Wednesday adding, “It’s [solarization] a threat.”

The Nepra chairman said that this 7,000 MW imported solar capacity is not for only rooftops, bulk consumers are also installing their big capacities. He also tasked the CPPA with conducting a study on solar energy usage, mapping and submitting a report to Nepra.

Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) while pleading the case on behalf of Discos reported that electricity consumption in June 2024 was 10 percent lower than the reference period consumption, while two percent less than last year.

Waseem Mukhtar said that the government has launched a study to determine if Pakistan requires additional power generation capacity. He emphasized the need for a logical approach to adding more electricity to the national grid. The study is also evaluating that Commercial Operating Dates (CoDs) for some plants may be postponed, he said, mentioning that the study will determine which plants can be retired early.

[Riaz Haq]

California slashes payments to new rooftop-solar… | Canary Media

https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/california-slashes-payme...

With its new plan, the CPUC aims to allow all customers to earn enough money from their rooftop-solar systems to pay back the cost of installing them within nine years. That’s a longer payback period than the average of five to seven years under the current net-metering scheme.

But solar groups and some consumer advocates say that the CPUC’s calculations are flawed, and that the complexities and uncertainties of the new net-billing structure could push payback periods beyond that nine-year target. They also warn that companies that finance solar installations will be leery of lending to projects under the new regime, potentially restricting the market even further.

In a memo last week, pro-rooftop-solar group Save California Solar highlighted how dramatic the reduction in export values would be for customers of California’s three big utilities compared to reductions adopted in recent years in other states.

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One of the biggest uncertainties surrounding the CPUC’s changes is whether they’ll successfully encourage far more customers to add batteries that can store solar power and then export it when the grid needs it most. Finding ways to store excess solar generated at midday and save it for hot summer evenings, when California faces increasing risk of grid shortfalls, has become a central part of the state’s clean energy policy for utility-scale solar as well as distributed solar.

That’s a much different set of challenges than when California’s net-metering policy was first enacted in 1995, CPUC President Alice Reynolds said at Thursday’s meeting. ​“During the daytime, the electric grid is now powered largely by renewable systems both large and small,” she said. ​“There are even moments when we need to curtail” — or order large-scale solar systems to stop producing power — ​“because we have too much on the grid at once.”

The CPUC’s new structure is meant to make batteries more valuable than solar alone and enable solar-plus-battery installations to earn back their costs in between eight and nine years, slightly less time than solar-only installations. Exports of solar power to the grid during high-demand evening hours in summer months will be compensated at levels higher than current retail rates, providing battery owners an opportunity to speed up payback.

The CPUC’s decision will also require all new rooftop-solar owners to enroll in ​“electrification rates” that charge far more for electricity during peak hours and far less during hours when grid demand is lower. (The rates are intended to encourage people to electrify their homes and stop using fossil gas, hence the name.) Batteries could allow solar-equipped homes to take advantage of these highly differentiated hourly rates, so they can buy from the grid when rates are low and use their own stored rooftop power when rates are high.

[Riaz Haq]

Indian reliance on Chinese imports is challenge for U.S. trade strategy - The Washington Post


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/02/india-china-manufac...

NEW DELHI — American businesses looking to reduce their reliance on China have increasingly been eyeing India in the past few years as a new manufacturing hub — and as a hedge against potential disruptions in Chinese supply chains caused by rising geopolitical tensions or another pandemic.

But as India has amped up its production of goods like smartphones, solar panels and medicine, the Indian economy itself has become even more dependent on Chinese imports, in particular for the components that go into these products, according to trade figures and economic analysts.

This dynamic serves as a reality check for U.S. policymakers, who have been urgently promoting efforts to diversify supply chains away from Chinese factories and “de-risk” the commercial relationship with China.

“Unless China stops being the third party from where components come in and we just assemble, that de-risking is not going to happen for any country coming in and producing in India,” said Sriparna Pathak, an associate professor at Jindal University focusing on India-China relations.



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To support the production of Indian textiles and garments, another important export industry, India has been ramping up imports of yarn and fabric from China. Even the automobile industry — considered a success story for both domestic and export sales — has been increasing its imports of vehicle parts and accessories from China.

As with electronics, India has made significant strides in producing solar panels but now relies even more on the Chinese solar cells that go in them.

After the United States restricted imports of Chinese solar panel material because of concerns about human rights and labor abuses, Indian exports of solar panels to the American market spiked in 2022, increasing in value by almost 150 percent, according to U.S. government trade figures. The next year saw an even sharper increase.



During that time, however, India sourced between half and all of its solar panel components — such as modules, cells, wafers and solar glass — from China between 2021 and 2023, according to a BloombergNEF report at the end of last year.

Senior Biden administration officials said it is not realistic to think that inputs from China can be excluded at this moment from American supply chains. “We have taken a more practical view that in order to effectively diversify, the first step is to get a foothold in the parts of this supply chain where you can diversify today. And then from there you can grow upstream,” said a senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive strategies toward China.

Addressing the significant presence of Chinese components in Indian-made solar panels, the official said: “We recognize we are in the first inning of a long game, but we are at an inflection point in that there is now a clear recognition, not just in the U.S. and India but among friends and allies, that being overly reliant on one source for the clean-energy economy is not sustainable and requires a concerted effort to de-risk. But it’s going to take time.”

[Riaz Haq]

Electricity Tariff for Pakistan Residential Consumers- July 2024

https://arynews.tv/electricity-tariff-for-pakistan-residential-cons...

ISLAMABAD: The federal cabinet approved significant increase in the electricity tariff for residential consumers using 100 to 500 units per month, ARY news reported.

According to the details, the new basic tariff is fixed at Rs 48.84 per unit, which will increase to Rs 57.63 per unit after sales tax. With adjustments and other taxes, the maximum electricity tariff will exceed Rs 65 per unit.

As per the decision taken by the federal cabinet, the monthly tariff for consumers using 1 to 100 units is proposed to Rs 23.59, while those using 101 to 200 units will have to pay Rs 30.07 per unit.

Similarly, the tariff for those consumers using 201 to 300 units will increase to Rs 34.26, and those using 301 to 400 units will have to pay Rs 39.15 per unit.

The consumers using 401 to 500 units will be charged the most as they will have to pay Rs 41.36 per unit

Pakistan’s power sector caused a Rs403 billion loss in FY2022-23, revealed the National Electronic Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) report earlier.

The progress report of the power distribution companies including K-Electric was released by the NEPRA, indicating nine distribution companies including K-Electric failed to achieve 100pc recovery.

The line losses and low recoveries caused a loss of Rs403 bln to the national kitty, the report said. The report highlighted that the companies did not buy the electricity as per the assigned quota.

The companies carrying out loadshedding ‘deliberately’ as they are not buying electricity as per their quotas, the report said.

[Riaz Haq]

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Pakistan's total solar installed capacity was 1,244 megawatts as of 2023, an increase of 17% compared to 2021. The country's government has proposed several efforts to raise the percentage of solar energy. Source: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/pakistan-solar-...


https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/pakistan-solar-....

Pakistan Solar Energy Market Analysis

The Pakistan Solar Energy Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 1.41 gigawatt in 2024 to 9.53 gigawatt by 2029, at a CAGR of 46.55% during the forecast period (2024-2029).
Over the medium term, increasing adoption of solar PV systems, the declining price of solar panels and installation costs, and rising environmental concerns about the use of fossil fuels are the factors driving the market's growth.
On the other hand, the market is expected to be hampered by issues like transmission and distribution losses, a need for a solidified renewable energy policy, and unpredictability in the continuity of power supply.
However, Pakistan has abundant solar irradiance and receives solar energy almost yearly. This factor presents a phenomenal opportunity to exploit solar energy from the most irradiated sites in the country, combined with foreign investments. Additionally, the off-grid supply through micro- and mini-grids to electrify rural communities of the country and the integration of renewable energy sources in generation, transmission, and distribution systems are some factors expected to create opportunities for the market in the future.





Pakistan Solar Energy Market Trends


The Utility Sector is Expected to Dominate the Market



Solar energy converts energy from sunlight into electricity directly using photovoltaics (PV) or indirectly using concentrated solar power.
Due to the falling cost of solar modules and the number of upcoming projects, the utility sector will likely be the most significant part of the Pakistani solar energy market over the next few years.
The Pakistani government has established lofty objectives, such as 30% of the nation's power coming from renewable sources by 2030. Through the Alternative Energy Development Board, the government is attempting to construct solar power facilities nationwide to meet these objectives.
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Pakistan's total solar installed capacity was 1,244 megawatts as of 2023, an increase of 17% compared to 2021. The country's government has proposed several efforts to raise the percentage of solar energy.
In December 2023, Orient Energy Systems and JA Solar announced they completed Pakistan's first n-type utility-scale photovoltaic power plant project. The project adopts JA Solar's n-type high-efficiency modules, which have a capacity of 26 megawatts. It is installed on the premises of Lucky Cement plant, Pakistan's largest cement manufacturer.
In March 2024, Hanersun Technologies agreed with My Energy, a local company, to construct a 500MW solar system in the country. The project is expected to have an investment of around USD 700 million.
Hence, with government support, these projects are expected to make the utility sector the dominant force in Pakistan's solar energy industry in the coming years. Source: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/pakistan-solar-...