Climate Change: Pakistan Requires Massive Assistance to Recover From Catastrophic Floods

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan is dealing with the aftermath of the worst floods in the country's history.  Over a thousand Pakistanis are dead. About 33 million people in two southern provinces are homeless. Sindh is inundated with 784% of normal rainfall so far this year. Balochistan has seen 522% of average rainfall. Both provinces suffered their worst ever heatwave prior to this unprecedented deluge. Nearly a million livestock have been lost, over two million acres of farmland is underwater and 90% of the crops in Sindh and Balochistan have been damaged. This is a massive humanitarian crisis. Pakistan can not deal with it alone.

Pakistan Flood 2022 Map. Source: DW

Satellite Image of Qambar, Sindh Before/After Floods 2022. Source: ...

Satellite Image of Shikarpur, Sindh Before/After Floods 2022. Source: NASA

Balochistan and Sindh Worst Affected by Monsoon22. Source: The Econ...

Pakistan's population is about 2.6% of the world population. The nation contributes less than 1% of the global carbon emissions. It lacks the resources needed to deal with the consequences of this man-made disaster. The Industrial Revolution in Europe and the United States was fueled mainly by fossil fuels such as coal and oil believed to be responsible for climate change.  The following map from Professor Jason Hickel shows that the countries in the global north are the biggest polluters while those in the global south are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. 

Climate Injustice: Low Emitters Global South vs Big Polluters in In...

Average Annual Cost of Floods in Vulnerable Countries. Source: Bloo...

Comparison of 2022 and 2010 Floods in Pakistan. Source: WWF

It will take hundreds of millions of dollars to provide immediate relief to 33 million people, followed by tens of billions of dollars in assistance to rebuild the lives and livelihoods and the infrastructure destroyed by this catastrophe. Pakistan's gross capital formation is only 15% of its GDP. Among the world’s top 20 economies by population, only Egypt has a lower rate of gross capital formation than Pakistan, according to Bloomberg. It is time for the rich industrialized world to help developing nations such as Pakistan to deal with the massive impact of climate change. 

Low Gross Capital Formation in Pakistan. Source: Bloomberg

All Pakistanis and non-Pakistanis need to pitch in with donations to help finance immediate disaster relief activities. Beyond that, Pakistan will have to be helped by international experts to build disaster preparedness capacity. The new housing and infrastructure will have to be funded and built to ensure its resilience in future climate disasters which are likely to occur more often with greater intensity. There is an urgent  need to prepare western and multilateral financial institutions to deal with such climate catastrophes in developing nations. Mechanisms also need to be put in place to provide and manage funding of these projects in a transparent manner. 

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[Riaz Haq]

UNICEF Pakistan Humanitarian Situation Report No. 10 (Floods): 28 February 2023

https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/unicef-pakistan-humanitarian-...


Moving into 2023, urgent and significant humanitarian needs remain which require continued focus and support, even as reconstruction and rehabilitation begin under the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) and Resilient, Recovery, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Framework (4RF).

The 2022 flood was equivalent to nearly 2.9 times the national 30-year average – and a combination of riverine, urban, and flash flooding led to a record flood in which 94 districts were declared calamity-hit. The widespread flooding and landslides resulted in major losses of human lives and damage to property and infrastructure. Around 33 million people were affected, nearly 8 million people were reportedly displaced, and as per UN Satellite Centre imagery around 4.5 million people are still exposed to or living close to flood water. As per the last NDMA situation report, 1,739 people lost their lives (of which 647 were children), 12,867 were injured (including 4,006 children) and more than 2.28 million houses were damaged (partially damaged: 1,391,467 and fully damaged: 897,014).

An estimated 20.6 million people, including 9.6 million children, need humanitarian assistance. Many of the hardest-hit districts are amongst the most vulnerable districts in Pakistan, where children already suffer from high malnutrition, poor access to water and sanitation, low school enrolment, and other deprivations. Moreover, the effects of the floods have worsened pre-existing vulnerabilities to key child-protection issues and gender-based violence (GBV). Children, particularly those living in poverty, are at a higher risk of being forced into child labour, child marriage and violence. The affected area in need of community-based psychosocial support and specialized interventions. As per the PDNA, beyond the increase in monetary poverty, estimates indicate an increase in multidimensional poverty from 37.8 per cent to 43.7 per cent, meaning that an additional 1.9 million households will be pushed into non-monetary poverty. This entails significantly increased deprivations around access to adequate health, sanitation, quality maternal health care, electricity, and loss of assets. Multidimensional poverty will increase by 13 percentage points in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), followed by 10.9 in Balochistan, and 10.2 in Sindh province.

As per the latest available reports, more than 5.4 million people do not have access to safe or potable water in flood-affected districts. An estimated 1.1 million people are at risk of sliding from acute food and livelihood crisis (IPC3) situations to humanitarian emergency (IPC4) food security situations due to insufficient support. Malaria outbreaks have been reported in at least 12 districts of Sindh and Balochistan. Over 7 million children and women need immediate access to nutrition services. An estimated 3.5 million children, especially girls, are at high risk of permanent school dropouts.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistani Village Seen as Model of Climate Resilience (designed by Architect Yasmeen Lari_

https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistani-village-seen-as-model-of-climat...

The village of Pono in Pakistan's southern Sindh province is so small it’s difficult to find on Google maps, but it’s still getting international attention. That’s because the village is designed to show how communities that are most vulnerable to climate change can become climate resilient and self-sustaining using old techniques. VOA's Pakistan Bureau Chief Sarah Zaman visited Pono and brings this report.

[Riaz Haq]

#US meteorologists' new scales for ‘atmospheric rivers’: Storms that hit #California this winter reached AR-4 (clouds carrying as much water as the Mississippi), while the atmospheric river responsible for #Pakistan’s devastating #floods in 2022 was AR-5 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/06/scientists-devise-sca...

Clouds carrying as much water as the Mississippi have caused misery in the US. Now meteorologists can compare such events

For skiers it has been an epic winter in California, with more than 16 metres of snow recorded at the Donner Pass in the Sierra Nevada. But for many people the excessively stormy winter has brought misery, submerging homes in snow, and causing widespread flooding and landslides across the state. The source of this string of powerful storms has been an “atmospheric river”, with clouds carrying as much moisture as the Mississippi.

Atmospheric rivers are nothing new, but they do appear to be growing more intense and frequent, driven by warmer temperatures and faster evaporation from the world’s oceans. Now scientists have devised an intensity scale for atmospheric rivers, enabling forecasters to rank the severity and identify extremes. The scale, described in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, mirrors the hurricane scale and runs from AR-1 to AR-5, with AR-5 being the most intense.

The storms that hit California this winter reached AR-4, while the atmospheric river responsible for Pakistan’s devastating floods in 2022 was AR-5. The scale enables meteorologists to compare atmospheric river events around the world, map out the most probable locations and help people better prepare. Strong El Niño years are more likely to have intense atmospheric rivers, and current forecasts indicate an El Niño is likely to develop by the end of this year.

[Riaz Haq]

ADB and the partners allocated US$ 5.5 billions for projects in Pakistan. Moreover, US$ 2.6 billion dollars concessional loans were approved for Pakistan.

https://arynews.tv/adb-provides-maximum-funds-pakistan-2022-report/

The Asian Development Bank overall made 31.8 billion dollars project financing in Asia, the bank’s annual report stated.

Devastating floods inflicted maximum loss to the economy in Pakistan in 2022. These unprecedented floods damaged crops and disbalanced the demand and supply in the country, the report said.

“Destruction of crops also hike prices in local market,” according to the ADB report. “The conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused inflation at the global leve,” the bank’s annual report said.

“Pakistan required the expets on climate change to avoid losses inflicted by the change in weather patterns,” ADB report stated. “The ADB providing services of the experts to the country to avoid hazards of rapid changes in climate”.

“Unprecedented floods in Pakistan claimed 1730 human lives and affected 33 million people across the country,” ADB said in its report. The flood

[Riaz Haq]

Yasmeen Lari, 'starchitect' turned social engineer wins one of architecture's most coveted prizes - CNN Style



https://www.cnn.com/style/article/yasmeen-lari-riba-royal-gold-meda...

The Royal Gold Medal is awarded to a person (or group of people) who has had "significant influence on the advancement of architecture" and, RIBA says, "acknowledges Yasmeen Lari's work championing zero-carbon self-build concepts for displaced populations."

Yasmeen Lari, widely recognised as Pakistan's first female architect, has become the first woman since Zaha Hadid to win the prestigious Royal Gold Medal, awarded by the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA).

Lari, described by RIBA as "a revolutionary force in Pakistan," was recognized for the socially conscious work, creating accessible, environmentally friendly homes for the country's most marginalized people — those living below the poverty line and in communities displaced by natural disasters and the impact of climate change.
The Royal Gold Medal is awarded to a person (or group of people) who has had "significant influence on the advancement of architecture" and, RIBA says, "acknowledges Yasmeen Lari's work championing zero-carbon self-build concepts for displaced populations."

The award is personally approved by the British monarch and this year's is the first to be signed off by King Charles III.

"I was so surprised to hear this news and of course totally delighted! I never imagined that as I focus on my country's most marginalised people — venturing down uncharted vagabond pathways — I could still be considered for the highest of honours in the architectural profession," Lari said in a statement. "There are innumerable opportunities to implement principles of circular economy, de-growth, transition design, eco-urbanism, and what we call Barefoot Social Architecture (BASA) to achieve climate resilience, sustainability and eco justice in the world."
Born in Pakistan in 1941, Lari studied at Oxford Brookes University before returning to Pakistan in 1964 where she overcame "considerable challenges" to establish Lari Associates, her own architecture firm, creating glitzy buildings for major government, business, and financial institutions. But she developed a deepening sense of guilt over the amount of concrete and steel used, and has said she has been "atoning" ever since, now working to a mantra of "low cost, zero carbon, zero waste."

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan, still recovering from last year's floods, braces for more flooding this year - CBS News


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pakistan-more-floods-expected-2023/

Pakistanis have begun working on agricultural methods that can withstand extreme weather. Miliband says the IRC is developing and distributing seeds that can survive excessive rain and other challenging conditions.

Miliband also said that giving people cash up front — before weather disaster strikes — can help protect people who live in areas vulnerable to extreme conditions. This kind of anticipatory cash relief is better than payments that come after the damage is done, he argued, because it enables people who know what their communities need to better prepare and insulate themselves against the next climate emergency.

For now, Pakistanis are still coping with all the floods destroyed — fields, crops, homes, schools and hospitals. Shelter remains a top priority for aid organizations that distributed tents to families after 2.1 million homes were damaged. The country's infrastructure still has not been rebuilt. In Sindh province, more than 89,000 people remained displaced as of January 2, according to the Center for Disaster Philanthropy, with many relocating their tents to higher elevations.

Clean drinking water is also in short supply. More than 10 million people in flood-affected areas still lack access to safe drinking water, according to UNICEF.

[Riaz Haq]

A framework for multi-sensor satellite data to evaluate crop production losses: the case study of 2022 Pakistan floods
Faisal Mueen Qamer, Sawaid Abbas, Bashir Ahmad, Abid Hussain, Aneel Salman, Sher Muhammad, Muhammad Nawaz, Sravan Shrestha, Bilal Iqbal & Sunil Thapa


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-30347-y

Figure A2 shows rice, cotton, and sugarcane are the three major commercial crops cultivated throughout Sindh in the Summer season (Kharif crops). The distribution patterns of these primary crops in the province in very significant (Fig. A2). Interestingly, each of these crops is affected differently, for instance, the rice crop is mostly affected by the water logged in the north-western part. It is estimated that ~ 80% of the rice crop production (~ 1.9 million tons of rice) is lost due to flooding (Figs. 2, 6, 9, A2). The rice production zone was severely waterlogged due to the flooding which can extinguish plants by limiting light availability and oxygen supply. Table 1 summarises the expected loss in crop production at the district level. On the other hand, the sugarcane crop is predominantly cultivated in the northeastern districts along the Indus River. There was lesser evidence of flood water logging in the sugarcane zone, probably due to the better drainage mechanism of this side of the river and partially due to the well-grown plant of the sugarcane crop. However, the dispersed population and flooding could generate an expected loss of 61% (10.5 million tons) of the crop by the end of the crop-growing season. It was important to note that the cotton crop zone was the least inundated, nonetheless, the loss of cotton crop was significantly high due to the incidental rainfall. The hotspot of rainfall intensity was exactly over the cotton crop zone which could have severely affected the sensitive plants of the cotton crop. The total loss in cotton crop production is expected to be 88% (3.5 million bales) because of flooding and continuously exceptionally heavy rainfall. Considering the commodity prices of summer 202248, these three crops faced a direct loss of USD 1.30 billion (rice: USD 543 million, cotton: USD 485 million, sugarcane: USD 273 million).

These estimates of production losses could be exacerbated while considering the abandoned or unattended agricultural fields due to dislocated and suffering population. It would be difficult for small farmers to immediately recover from loss which might trigger a household transition from on-farm to off-form work for livelihood49,50. Apart from the losses and damages that can be termed economic, the floods have caused more non-economic losses and damages that are difficult to assess in economic terms. These noneconomic losses may be more significant for developing countries for which such losses should become a central aspect of climate change policy. When land is lost or rendered unsuitable for agriculture the rich landowners may suffer greater losses in economic terms.

The rapid assessment loss estimates through this approach closely match with the detailed Post-Disaster Needs Assessment51 which reports cotton as the most affected crop followed by rice and sugarcane. It has been observed that rapid estimates of disaster losses for major events are more accurate than the small-scale local disaster loss events51. The true economic costs of climate change are difficult to quantify due to a lack of reliable data. The costs of climate change are often long-term and uncertain, making it difficult to accurately measure. The losses related to long-term impacts like reduction of soil productivity and indirect costs such as displacement and disruption to local economies may be difficult to quantify, while the intangible costs associated with loss and damage (such as emotional distress, loss of culture and traditional knowledge, etc.) cannot be measured.

[Riaz Haq]

The octogenarian architect (Yasmeen Lari) working to flood-proof Pakistan - Digital Journal


https://www.digitaljournal.com/world/the-octogenarian-architect-wor...

At 82 years old, architect Yasmeen Lari is forging the way in fortifying Pakistan’s rural communities living on the frontline of climate change.

Lari, Pakistan’s first woman architect, has ditched a lifetime of multi-million dollar projects in the megacity of Karachi to develop pioneering flood-proof bamboo houses.

The few pilot settlements already constructed are credited with saving families from the worst of the catastrophic monsoon flooding that put a third of the country underwater last year.

“We continued to live in them,” said Khomo Kohli, a 45-year-old resident of Pono Colony village, which is a few hundred kilometres outside of Karachi.

“The rest of the residents had to move onto the road where they lived for two months until the water receded.”

Now, Lari is campaigning to scale up the project to one million houses made from affordable local materials, bringing new jobs to the most vulnerable areas.

“I call it a kind of co-building and co-creation, because the people have an equal part in embellishing it and making it comfortable for themselves,” she said.

The architect, who trained in the United Kingdom, is behind some of Karachi’s most notable buildings, including brutalist constructions such as the Pakistan State Oil headquarters, as well as a string of luxury homes.

As she was considering retirement, a series of natural disasters — including a massive 2005 earthquake and 2010 floods — stiffened her resolve to continue working with her Heritage Foundation of Pakistan, which manages her rural projects.

“I had to find the solution, or find a way by which I could build up the capacities of people so that they could fend for themselves, rather than waiting for outside help,” she told AFP.

“My motto is zero carbon, zero waste, zero donor, which I think leads to zero poverty,” she said.

– Traditional techniques –

Climate change is making monsoon rains heavier and more unpredictable, scientists say, raising the urgency to flood-proof the country — particularly as the poorest live in the most vulnerable areas.

Pakistan, with the world’s fifth-largest population, is responsible for less than one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions but is one of the nations most vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather.

Pono Colony, with around 100 houses, was developed just months before catastrophic monsoon rains arrived last summer and displaced eight million people.

The village’s elevated homes are protected from rushing water, while their bamboo skeletons — pierced deep into the ground — can withstand pressure without being uprooted.

Known locally as “chanwara”, the mud huts are an improved take on the traditional single-room houses dotted along the landscape of southern Sindh province and Rajasthan state in India.

They require only locally available materials: lime, clay, bamboo and thatching. With straightforward training to locals, they can be assembled at a cost of around $170 — around an eighth of the cost of a cement and brick house.

In rural Sindh, tens of thousands of people are still displaced and stagnant water stands in large parts of farmland almost a year after the country’s worst-ever floods.

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank in a joint study estimated Pakistan sustained $32 billion in damage and economic losses and would require $16 billion for reconstruction and rehabilitation.

– Royal recognition –

Lari recalls working on social housing in Lahore in the 1970s, when local women pored over her plans and probed her on where their chickens would live.

“Those chickens have really remained with me, the women’s needs are really the uppermost when I’m designing,” she said.

This time around, the redesign of traditional stoves has become a significant feature — now lifted off the floor.

[Riaz Haq]

The 82-year-old female architect working to flood-proof Pakistan

https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/5/24/the-82-year-old-female-...

Yasmeen Lari, the country’s first female architect, is making bamboo houses for people living on the front lines of climate change.


At 82, architect Yasmeen Lari is forging a path in fortifying Pakistan’s rural communities living on the front lines of climate change.

Lari, Pakistan’s first female architect, ditched a lifetime of multimillion-dollar projects in the megacity of Karachi to develop pioneering flood-proof bamboo houses.

The few pilot settlements already constructed are credited with saving families from the worst of the catastrophic monsoon flooding that put a third of the country underwater last year.

“We continued to live in them,” said Khomo Kohli, a 45-year-old resident of Pono Colony village, located a few hundred kilometres outside of Karachi.

“The rest of the residents had to move onto the road where they lived for two months until the water receded.”

Now, Lari is campaigning to scale up the project to one million houses made from affordable local materials, bringing new jobs to the most vulnerable areas.


“I call it a kind of co-building and co-creation because the people have an equal part in embellishing it and making it comfortable for themselves,” she said.

The architect, who trained in the United Kingdom, is behind some of Karachi’s most notable buildings, including brutalist constructions such as the Pakistan State Oil headquarters, as well as a string of luxury homes.

As she was considering retirement, a series of natural disasters – including a massive 2005 earthquake and 2010 floods – stiffened her resolve to continue working with her Heritage Foundation of Pakistan, which manages her rural projects.

“I had to find the solution, or find a way by which I could build up the capacities of people so that they could fend for themselves, rather than waiting for outside help,” she told AFP news agency.

------

Lari recalls working on social housing in Lahore in the 1970s when local women pored over her plans and probed her on where their chickens would live.

“Those chickens have really remained with me, the women’s needs are really the uppermost when I am designing,” she said.

This time around, the redesign of traditional stoves has become a significant feature – now lifted off the floor.

“Earlier, the stove would have been on the ground level and so it was immensely unhygienic. The small children would burn themselves on the flames, stray dogs would lick pots and germs would spread,” said Champa Kanji, who has been trained by Lari’s team to build stoves for homes across Sindh.

“Seeing women becoming independent and empowered gives me immense pleasure,” Lari said.

Lari’s work has been recognised by the Royal Institute of British Architects, which awarded her the 2023 Royal Gold Medal for her dedication to using architecture to change people’s lives.

[Riaz Haq]

2022 Pakistan Floods

https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2022-pakistan-floods/

According to the Pakistan Education Sector Working Group, the floods affected 2.2 million children and damaged a total of 34,204 schools in 126 districts. As of early March 2023 there was a 40% gap in funding and low coverage to support school rehabilitations.

According to UNOCHA in their Feb. 6, 2023 Situation Report, “An estimated 3.5 million children, especially girls, are at high risk of permanent school dropout. The longer that the children are away from school, the less likely they are to return, and prolonged education disruptions are increasing learning disparities.”

Pakistan has a long history of major disasters disrupting education for children. Work to cleanup and restore educational facilities damaged by the flooding is ongoing and temporary learning centers are used to continue children’s education as recovery continues. As of April 15, there were 1,586 temporary learning centers (TLCs) in operation. A lack of funding is delaying rehabilitation and the provision of structures and transitional school shelters to damaged schools in flood-affected areas.