Climate Change: Pakistan Requires Massive Assistance to Recover From Catastrophic Floods

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan is dealing with the aftermath of the worst floods in the country's history.  Over a thousand Pakistanis are dead. About 33 million people in two southern provinces are homeless. Sindh is inundated with 784% of normal rainfall so far this year. Balochistan has seen 522% of average rainfall. Both provinces suffered their worst ever heatwave prior to this unprecedented deluge. Nearly a million livestock have been lost, over two million acres of farmland is underwater and 90% of the crops in Sindh and Balochistan have been damaged. This is a massive humanitarian crisis. Pakistan can not deal with it alone.

Pakistan Flood 2022 Map. Source: DW

Satellite Image of Qambar, Sindh Before/After Floods 2022. Source: ...

Satellite Image of Shikarpur, Sindh Before/After Floods 2022. Source: NASA

Balochistan and Sindh Worst Affected by Monsoon22. Source: The Econ...

Pakistan's population is about 2.6% of the world population. The nation contributes less than 1% of the global carbon emissions. It lacks the resources needed to deal with the consequences of this man-made disaster. The Industrial Revolution in Europe and the United States was fueled mainly by fossil fuels such as coal and oil believed to be responsible for climate change.  The following map from Professor Jason Hickel shows that the countries in the global north are the biggest polluters while those in the global south are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. 

Climate Injustice: Low Emitters Global South vs Big Polluters in In...

Average Annual Cost of Floods in Vulnerable Countries. Source: Bloo...

Comparison of 2022 and 2010 Floods in Pakistan. Source: WWF

It will take hundreds of millions of dollars to provide immediate relief to 33 million people, followed by tens of billions of dollars in assistance to rebuild the lives and livelihoods and the infrastructure destroyed by this catastrophe. Pakistan's gross capital formation is only 15% of its GDP. Among the world’s top 20 economies by population, only Egypt has a lower rate of gross capital formation than Pakistan, according to Bloomberg. It is time for the rich industrialized world to help developing nations such as Pakistan to deal with the massive impact of climate change. 

Low Gross Capital Formation in Pakistan. Source: Bloomberg

All Pakistanis and non-Pakistanis need to pitch in with donations to help finance immediate disaster relief activities. Beyond that, Pakistan will have to be helped by international experts to build disaster preparedness capacity. The new housing and infrastructure will have to be funded and built to ensure its resilience in future climate disasters which are likely to occur more often with greater intensity. There is an urgent  need to prepare western and multilateral financial institutions to deal with such climate catastrophes in developing nations. Mechanisms also need to be put in place to provide and manage funding of these projects in a transparent manner. 

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[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Monsoon Floods - Situation Report #6, December 6, 2022

https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-monsoon-floods-situa...

Fast Facts

Since the devastating floods that began in June, more than 1,700 people have died and almost 8 million people have been displaced.

International Medical Corps has deployed 11 mobile medical teams, which have provided 17,849 consultations in severely affected districts in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.

In Sindh, International Medical Corps, in collaboration with its local partner, has delivered 816,000 liters of potable water to the affected population through 19 water trucks, and 300,000 liters through our solar-powered mobile reverse-osmosis plant, which converts contaminated floodwater into safe drinking water.

Heavy rains and floods in Pakistan have affected more than one-third of the country and caused more than 1,700 deaths. Five months after the disaster, more than 6 million people remain in dire need of humanitarian assistance.
According to reports from the field, more than 40% of those affected people are still living along roads in temporary shelters in unsanitary conditions, often with limited access to basic services—thus heightening the risk of a major public health crisis.

The floodwaters have started receding in many districts of Sindh and Balochistan, and families have started returning to their villages, but vulnerabilities remain due to a lack of adequate shelter, tents and food items, including safe drinking water. Cases of water and vector-borne diseases continue to remain a major concern, due to stagnant water that is still present in their communities. Among other challenges, low stocks of essential medicines and medical supplies continue to pose hurdles to providing adequate health services to people in need. Moreover, the winter season in many of the affected areas is fast approaching, and is likely to negatively affect the population in the coming weeks. Without adequate shelters and blankets, it is likely the health situation of those affected will quickly worsen.

According to United Nations Population Fund, around 5.1 million women in affected areas are of childbearing age and 410,846 are currently pregnant, with 136,950 expected to give birth in the next few months.

The floods have also aggravated food insecurity and malnutrition, as the agricultural land in flood-affected areas is still inundated and livestock has perished. About 14.6 million people will likely require emergency food assistance from December 2022 through March 2023. According to the latest National Nutrition Survey estimates, almost 1.6 million children in Sindh and Balochistan are at risk of malnutrition that will require treatment, and stunting rates among children will rise if they do not receive treatment in a timely manne

[Riaz Haq]

What would a climate-resilient Pakistan look like? Sindh offers clues.


https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2022/1206/What-w...


When unrelenting flood waters hit the small, hardscrabble village of Mir Khan-Goth in Pakistan’s Sindh province last August, Seema had no idea how a life that had carried on in familiar patterns over many decades was about to change.

First, the powerful tide of earth-laden water carried away Seema’s daughter, who had ventured out into a thigh-high river to salvage any food she could at the outdoor kitchen. She would never return, leaving Seema, who offered only her first name, to care for her four grandchildren.

But the floods also left the family’s traditional thatched, one-room hut roofless and teetering – no match for the weeks on end of unprecedented rains that followed the floods. Scientists say that pattern is likely to repeat with climate change fueling increasingly extreme weather. Like more than half of the 50 thatched or earthen houses that made up Mir Khan-Goth before this year’s monsoon rains, Seema’s house was suddenly no longer a refuge, but a trap.


So it is some measure of progress that, despite the sadness and setbacks, Seema can now gather her grandchildren in a new thatched house. The dirt floor is on elevated ground, and the walls and roof are secured by bamboo pillars.


“There was so much loss, but we do have this,” she says as she motions inside the doorway of her new home, built by the Alkhidmat Foundation, a private Islamic charity with a long history of disaster intervention and recovery.

Across Mir Khan-Goth and the dozens of similar villages dotting the landscape of the Gadap region of Sindh north of Karachi, signs slowly sprout of recovery from Pakistan’s devastating floods of July and August. Goat herders – including the father of Seema’s grandchildren – are back in mud-caked fields, tending their shrunken flocks. Local men desperate to see transportation and deliveries resume have done what they can to patch up washed-out roads. Women have reassembled outdoor kitchens and banded together to stretch donated food supplies across their villages.

But with an already weak civilian government overwhelmed by the scale of the devastation, and the country’s powerful military ill-equipped to transition from emergency intervention to climate adaptation, nothing on the order of a national recovery project has yet to take shape. Instead, rebuilding efforts have been driven largely by local universities and nonprofits, such as Alkhidmat.

“Right now Pakistan is an example of climate crisis,” says Naveed Baig, director of Alkhidmat’s Sindh office in Karachi, “but I think if we can respond to the task before us and make a success of our national recovery, Pakistan can be a model for climate adaptation and resilience.”

[Riaz Haq]

What would a climate-resilient Pakistan look like? Sindh offers clues.


https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2022/1206/What-w...



Pakistan consistently ranks in the top 10 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. Not only is the interval between catastrophic monsoon seasons shrinking, but also rising temperatures are rapidly melting glaciers in the north. Karachi, a city of 15 million people, is considered by some experts the world’s most vulnerable major city.

At the same time, an international community distracted by rising global hunger and mounting climate catastrophes seems to have almost forgotten about Pakistan.

Just last month, United Nations officials relaunched pleas for emergency assistance for Pakistan, noting that the $816 million humanitarian appeal for Pakistan is barely one-fifth funded.


Some form of emergency food, shelter, and health care assistance has reached more than 4 million Pakistanis, according to U.N. officials. But with nearly one-fifth of the country affected by the flooding, and at least 5 million Pakistanis remaining displaced from homes and livelihoods as winter sets in, they say the crisis will only deepen without a quick turnaround in intervention.

In November, Pakistani officials did score what they say will be an important step forward when they led a successful campaign at the COP27 in Egypt for a wealthy-country-financed climate mitigation fund.

The fund, the details of which remain sketchy, would be designed to help developing countries like Pakistan that are increasingly prone to climate disasters build a more resilient future.

But as promising as the concept may be, it does nothing for the millions of Pakistanis now facing rising food insecurity, lost shelter, and disrupted livelihoods and education.

Increasingly, it is private Pakistani charities and a few innovative projects aimed at building back with more climate-resilient communities that are among the few bright spots on the country’s immediate bleak horizon.

When nonstop torrential rains beginning in July suggested this would be a monsoon like nothing in Pakistan’s experience, Alkhidmat swung into action in areas where it was already well implanted in development work – often areas where a government presence is weak or nonexistent. Places like Mir Khan-Goth.

[Riaz Haq]

What would a climate-resilient Pakistan look like? Sindh offers clues.


https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2022/1206/What-w...



“We didn’t turn to the government to take emergency action in the worst-affected areas. If anything it was the other way around,” says Mr. Baig. “They came to us when it became clear very quickly that the unprecedented needs for food, shelter, and health were beyond any one government’s or organization’s capabilities.”

Yet now as flood recovery gradually shifts to reconstruction and renewal, Mr. Baig says he sees few signs of planning or preparation for the national “build back better” project government officials have begun touting.

On the other hand, he says Alkhidmat has already developed a blueprint for a climate-resilient village, certain elements of which have been incorporated into their recent flood recovery projects.

The new village Alkhidmat envisions would have 32 houses, all built on high ground, with reinforced construction materials and elevated flooring. Each village will have a solar-powered water pump and purification system – the pumps being a favorite feature for women, whose traditional job is to carry water, often long distances, for cooking and cleaning.


Resilience through innovation

Another example of climate-crisis innovation is playing out farther north in Pakistan, where a relief organization established at the University of Lahore (UOL) is utilizing students’ talents and their familiarity with a wide range of communities across the country to take flood recovery and renewal to hard-to-reach areas.

“We realized when the floods came that here [at the university] we had not just the resources to help, but through our students the access to remote affected areas, the enthusiasm to help, and the variety of talents required to play a critical role in the recovery,” says Farah Mahmood, director of UOL Relief.

Thus students from the university’s medical and nursing schools and nutrition majors were called on to help out in the initial emergency phase. More recently, students in architecture, engineering, and technology are joining in to envision and develop climate-resistant housing, agriculture, roads, and water infrastructure.

“Our students are our strength and our secret ingredient,” says Ms. Mahmood.

Nasrullah Manjhoo is just one example of UOL Relief’s “secret ingredient.”

A physical therapy student from a remote area of Balochistan province, Mr. Manjhoo came to UOL Relief’s attention after he posted videos on Facebook of the devastation in his native region.

“I was surprised when I got a phone call from them, but when I realized it could help my village, I became enthusiastic,” says Mr. Manjhoo.

In exchange for help with access to an area traditionally suspicious of outsiders, Mr. Manjhoo was able to help set the priorities for UOL Relief’s intervention in his area. Those included food, water, emergency shelter, and a medical clinic.

Seventy percent of his area’s traditional mud-and-straw houses “disintegrated” in the endless rains, he says. So now architecture students are developing a sturdier model house using bamboo, reinforced clay, and tiles for roofing.

The flooding “was terrible for so many people in my area, but I think now we” – by which he means his partnership with UOL Relief – “can help bring a better future,” Mr. Manjhoo says.

Back in Gadap, that “better future” is already taking shape in new climate-resistant housing and the community’s first solar-powered lighting and water installations. Aisha Taj, a mother of five, proudly assembles her brood outside the cobalt blue house Alkhidmat recently built for her family. She says the house, built on a cement base with a roof designed not to retain water, is an example for the whole village of the progress coming from the tragedy of the flood.

[Riaz Haq]

What would a climate-resilient Pakistan look like? Sindh offers clues.


https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2022/1206/What-w...


In exchange for help with access to an area traditionally suspicious of outsiders, Mr. Manjhoo was able to help set the priorities for UOL Relief’s intervention in his area. Those included food, water, emergency shelter, and a medical clinic.

Seventy percent of his area’s traditional mud-and-straw houses “disintegrated” in the endless rains, he says. So now architecture students are developing a sturdier model house using bamboo, reinforced clay, and tiles for roofing.

The flooding “was terrible for so many people in my area, but I think now we” – by which he means his partnership with UOL Relief – “can help bring a better future,” Mr. Manjhoo says.

Back in Gadap, that “better future” is already taking shape in new climate-resistant housing and the community’s first solar-powered lighting and water installations. Aisha Taj, a mother of five, proudly assembles her brood outside the cobalt blue house Alkhidmat recently built for her family. She says the house, built on a cement base with a roof designed not to retain water, is an example for the whole village of the progress coming from the tragedy of the flood.


Abdul Rahim, who is on the list for a new house, shares this hope as he invites a visitor to view his family’s destroyed house, an earthen shell with crumbling walls and no roof.

“We almost didn’t get out alive. Water and mud were coming from everywhere,” Mr. Rahim says. “What we are going to have soon will be much better.”

[Riaz Haq]

Mango farmers in Pakistan say production of the prized fruit has fallen by up to 40 percent in some areas because of high temperatures and water shortages in a country identified as one of the most vulnerable to climate change.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220711-pakistan-s-prized-ma...

The arrival of mango season in Pakistan is eagerly anticipated, with around two dozen varieties arriving through the hot, humid summers.

This year, however, temperatures rose sharply in March -- months earlier than usual -- followed by heatwaves that damaged crops and depleted water levels in canals farmers depend on for irrigation.

"Usually I pick 24 truckloads of mangoes... this year I have only got 12," said Fazle Elahi, counting the bags lined up by his farm.

"We are doomed."

The country is among the world's top exporters of mangoes, harvesting nearly two million tons annually across southern parts of Punjab and Sindh.

The total harvest is yet to be measured, but production is already short by at least 20 to 40 per cent in most areas, according to Gohram Baloch, a senior official at the Sindh provincial government's agriculture department.

Umar Bhugio, who owns swaths of orchards outside Mirpur Khas -- locally known as the city of mangoes -- said his crops received less than half the usual amount of water this year.

"Mango growers confronted two problems this year: one was the early rise in temperatures, and secondly the water shortage," he said.

Pakistan is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, a problem made worse by poor infrastructure and mismanagement of resources.


It also ranks as the country eighth most-vulnerable to extreme weather due to climate change, according to the Global Climate Risk Index compiled by environmental NGO Germanwatch.

Floods, droughts and cyclones in recent years have killed and displaced thousands, destroyed livelihoods and damaged infrastructure.

"The early rise of temperatures increased the water intake by crops. It became a contest among different crops for water consumption," said food security expert Abid Suleri, head of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI).

A rise in temperature is generally expected in the mango belt in early May, which helps the fruit ripen before picking starts in June and July.

But the arrival of summer as early as March damaged the mango flowers, a key part of the reproductive cycle.

"The mango should weigh over 750 grams but this year we picked very undersized fruit," Elahi said.

Known in South Asia as the "king of fruits", the mango originated in the Indian subcontinent.

The country's most treasured variety is the golden-yellow Sindhri, known for its rich flavour and juicy pulp.

[Riaz Haq]

Eight million may still be exposed to Pakistan floodwaters: UN
Pakistan saw record floods this summer after heavy monsoon rains and melting glaciers submerged one-third of the country.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/7/8-million-still-potentiall...

A United Nations report on Pakistan’s devastating floods says more than 240,000 people in the southern province of Sindh remain displaced while satellite images indicate about eight million are “still potentially exposed to floodwaters or living close to flooded areas”.

According to the situation report by the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), released on Tuesday, at least 12 districts continue to report standing water, 10 of which are in Sindh and two in Balochistan.

Pakistan witnessed catastrophic floods this summer after heavy monsoon rains and melting glaciers submerged one-third of the country, killing more than 1,700 and affecting a total of 33 million people.

Houses, roads, bridges and rail networks were washed away, with the government estimating the total damage at more than $30bn.

The UN report says while receding water has allowed millions to return home, they continue to face acute shortages of essential items such as food and medicine. It adds that the flood-hit regions are now tackling health-related challenges, though the numbers are showing a declining trend.

Citing data from the World Health Organization (WHO), the UN report said cases of malaria have declined by 25 percent in Balochistan, 58 percent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 67 percent in Sindh since early September.

The report added that a high number of malaria and cholera cases are still being reported from Sindh and Balochistan provinces, highlighting the “underlying vulnerabilities” in those regions.

The UN report further said more than 600,000 children in Pakistan have not received a single polio vaccine because of a lack of access to areas devastated by the floods. Pakistan remains one of the two countries in the world, along with Afghanistan, that is yet to be declared polio free.

The report also highlighted the food security situation in Pakistan. Quoting figures from the World Food Programme (WFP), another UN body, it said the highest food-insecure population was recorded in Sindh (3.9 million) and Balochistan (1.6 million).

“Evidence from available data indicates that relief response to date has fallen well short of the need, with over 5.1 million people now experiencing IPC 4 conditions in flood-affected areas,” it said, adding that an additional 1.1 million could fall in the same category by early 2023.

The IPC acute food insecurity classification differentiates between different levels of food insecurity, with phase four denoting an emergency and five being a catastrophe or famine.

Farida Shaheed, a former Special Rapporteur for OCHA and an expert on rights-based development, told Al Jazeera the government’s emergency response after this year’s floods lacks a long-term approach.

“The scale of devastation is massive. It is not something that can be fixed in months or a year. People have lost their homes, their crops, their livestock, their means of livelihood. I have not seen anything by the government that is being done with a long-term approach,” she said.

“Perennial issues were accumulating and now they are all here. Devastation due to floods is far beyond the scope, but it was all a long time coming. Our development policies were not effective and we can now see the results.”

[Riaz Haq]

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Wednesday that Pakistan’s economic outlook for the fiscal year ending in June 2023 has “deteriorated under heavy flooding” while the “economy was already struggling to regain macroeconomic and fiscal stability”.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1726307

In the supplement report titled ‘Asian Development Outlook 2022 Supplement’, ADB said flood disruption and damage in the country are “expected to slow real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in combination with a tight monetary stance, high inflation, and an un-conducive global environment”.

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the ADB report highlighted that flood damage in Pakistan threatened the upcoming agricultural season as well, as wheat is usually planted from mid-October.

It said the flooding is expected to have spillover effects on industry — notably textiles and food processing — and on services, in particular wholesale trade and transportation.

The report added that the floods had adversely affected cotton, rice and other important crops that are grown in the country.

The fiscal year 2023 forecast for Pakistan has been revised to reflect a “weaker currency [and] higher domestic energy prices” along with “flood-related crop and livestock losses and supply disruption, which have caused transitory food shortages and price spikes”, ADB elaborated in the report.

It further explained that transportation difficulties had “exacerbated these shortages and disrupted other domestic supply chains, broadening inflationary pressures and imposing production challenges”.

Growth and inflation outlook in South Asia
According to the ADB, South Asia is on track to meet the growth forecast of 6.5pc in 2022 but the forecast for 2023 has been downgraded slightly from 6.5pc to 6.3pc.

It further said sub-regional revision for 2023 largely reflected “lower forecasts for Bangladesh and Pakistan” as recovery in Bangladesh was also “hampered by external imbalances and unexpectedly high inflation”.

It projected inflation for South Asia — comprising of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka — to increase from 8.1pc in September to 8.2pc in the recent December update.

However, the estimated inflation figures for the year 2023 had a more substantial increment from 7.4pc to 7.9pc.

The report said that the sub-regional revision for 2023 largely reflects higher inflation forecasts for Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Inflation forecasts for elsewhere in the sub-region in 2023 remained unchanged while inflation in India is expected to rise to 6.7pc before falling back to 5.8pc in the fiscal year 2022.

[Riaz Haq]

World Bank approves $1.69 bln for Pakistan flood relief projects

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/world-bank-approves-169-...


Pakistan's already stressed economy took a further hit after severe floods earlier this year submerged large swathes of the country, killing nearly 1,700 people, damaging farmlands and infrastructure.

The World Bank financing is aimed at relief projects in the south-eastern Sindh province, which it said was worst-affected by the floods.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Association Dubai to build model village for flood-hit victims

https://dailytimes.com.pk/1040828/pakistan-association-dubai-to-bui...

Pakistan Association Dubai (PAD), in collaboration with Al Khidmat Foundation, will build a model village in the Lasbela district of Pakistan’s Balochistan province for the flood-affected victims.

The village will consist of 64 houses, a medical dispensary, a mosque, a school, a playground and a park. It will consist of 16 clusters with each cluster having four houses, benefiting around 600 people from the Lasbela district, which was one of the worst affected areas in the recent floods.

The project will be powered by solar energy to provide clean water as well as sanitation and sewage facilities for the residents. The construction will begin on January 1, 2023, and is expected to complete by end of March.

Dr Faisel Ikram, president, Pakistan Association Dubai, urged the community to come forward and play their role in making this project a success.

“Earlier, when we launched this campaign, we envisioned building this model village. There were several paperwork and logistics which we had to ensure were well-aligned to help this project materialise. We remain grateful to Community Development Authority (CDA), the Dar Al Ber Society and the Department of Islamic Affairs and Charitable Activities for their continuous efforts to facilitate our relief work. For donations, I request you to be a part of this noble cause,” said Dr Ikram.

Al Khidmat Pakistan, which supported PAD in its relief efforts during floods, will also help in the construction and completion of this multi-component project, Khaleej Times reported. Pakistan faced the worst floods in its history recently as hundreds of thousands of homes were damaged and many public health facilities, water systems and were damaged in the natural catastrophe.