Climate Change: Pakistan Requires Massive Assistance to Recover From Catastrophic Floods

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan is dealing with the aftermath of the worst floods in the country's history.  Over a thousand Pakistanis are dead. About 33 million people in two southern provinces are homeless. Sindh is inundated with 784% of normal rainfall so far this year. Balochistan has seen 522% of average rainfall. Both provinces suffered their worst ever heatwave prior to this unprecedented deluge. Nearly a million livestock have been lost, over two million acres of farmland is underwater and 90% of the crops in Sindh and Balochistan have been damaged. This is a massive humanitarian crisis. Pakistan can not deal with it alone.

Pakistan Flood 2022 Map. Source: DW

Satellite Image of Qambar, Sindh Before/After Floods 2022. Source: ...

Satellite Image of Shikarpur, Sindh Before/After Floods 2022. Source: NASA

Balochistan and Sindh Worst Affected by Monsoon22. Source: The Econ...

Pakistan's population is about 2.6% of the world population. The nation contributes less than 1% of the global carbon emissions. It lacks the resources needed to deal with the consequences of this man-made disaster. The Industrial Revolution in Europe and the United States was fueled mainly by fossil fuels such as coal and oil believed to be responsible for climate change.  The following map from Professor Jason Hickel shows that the countries in the global north are the biggest polluters while those in the global south are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. 

Climate Injustice: Low Emitters Global South vs Big Polluters in In...

Average Annual Cost of Floods in Vulnerable Countries. Source: Bloo...

Comparison of 2022 and 2010 Floods in Pakistan. Source: WWF

It will take hundreds of millions of dollars to provide immediate relief to 33 million people, followed by tens of billions of dollars in assistance to rebuild the lives and livelihoods and the infrastructure destroyed by this catastrophe. Pakistan's gross capital formation is only 15% of its GDP. Among the world’s top 20 economies by population, only Egypt has a lower rate of gross capital formation than Pakistan, according to Bloomberg. It is time for the rich industrialized world to help developing nations such as Pakistan to deal with the massive impact of climate change. 

Low Gross Capital Formation in Pakistan. Source: Bloomberg

All Pakistanis and non-Pakistanis need to pitch in with donations to help finance immediate disaster relief activities. Beyond that, Pakistan will have to be helped by international experts to build disaster preparedness capacity. The new housing and infrastructure will have to be funded and built to ensure its resilience in future climate disasters which are likely to occur more often with greater intensity. There is an urgent  need to prepare western and multilateral financial institutions to deal with such climate catastrophes in developing nations. Mechanisms also need to be put in place to provide and manage funding of these projects in a transparent manner. 

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[Riaz Haq]

Climate Change and Potential Demise of the Indian Deserts
P. V. Rajesh, B. N. Goswami
First published: 31 July 2023

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022EF003459

Abstract
In contrast to the “wet gets wetter and dry gets drier” paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10%–50% during 1901–2015 and is expected to increase by 50%–200% under moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. The GHG forcing primarily drives the westward expansion of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and is facilitated by a westward expansion of the Indian Ocean (IO) warm pool. Mechanistically, the westward expansion of ISMR is a consequence of the episodic genesis over IO and the northward propagation of an expanded Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone on a sub-seasonal time scale. While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people in the region.

Key Points
Global warming could potentially cause a westward expansion of the Indian monsoon

Rainfall in northwest India and Pakistan has increased and will continue to rise due to greenhouse gases

Increased monsoon rainfall can improve food productivity and socio-economic conditions in the region

Plain Language Summary
An apparent eastward shift of the Indian monsoon has led to the arid conditions in the west and north-west regions of India where monsoon was once active, and the Indus Valley civilizations thrived (5,300–3,300-year BP). A reversal of the process and a westward expansion of the present-day Indian monsoon would transform the west and north-west India to a humid “monsoonal” climate and provide food security to the expanding population of the country. The present study shows that the Indian monsoon is indeed expanding to the west with 10% decrease of mean rainfall in the northeast and 25% increase in the west and north-west during the historical period with a potential of 50%–100% increase in the north-west under SSP2–4.5. Harvesting the increased rainfall has the potential for significant increase in food productivity bringing in transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people of the region.

[Riaz Haq]

ADB to provide $2bn in annual assistance to Pakistan for climate resilience over next 3 years - Business - DAWN.COM

https://www.dawn.com/news/1859605


The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has announced that it will provide $2 billion in annual assistance to Pakistan over the next three years to support infrastructure development and climate-resilient initiatives.

In 2022, massive floods triggered by climate change devastated several parts of Pakistan, killing 1,700 people, washing away swathes of agricultural land, affecting 33 million people, and incurring losses worth $30 billion, according to government estimates.

A report by the Policy and Strategy Committee (PSC) and the Oversight Board on Post-Flood Reconstruction Activities showed last week that the country had only received $10.9bn from international development partners out of the total estimated loss for post-flood reconstruction work, leaving a $19.1bn shortfall that has halted the rehabilitation of flood-affected communities in three provinces.

According to a statement from the President’s House, the announcement was made during a meeting between President Asif Ali Zardari and ADB’s head Masatsugu Asakawa in Islamabad on Tuesday.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s floods recovery ‘test case’ leaves millions still in tents


https://www.ft.com/content/5dbcb6d5-d6bf-4549-9aa5-fd964efbc206



Pakistan is a disappointing test case for global financial co-operation aimed at helping countries after extreme climate events, local and international officials said, as 12mn victims languish in tents and makeshift huts after devastating floods two years ago. The amount initially pledged to support the recovery was more than $10bn, coming from wealthy countries, the World Bank and multilateral development banks, out of an estimated $16.3bn needed in total. But government and international development officials in Pakistan said that the cash-strapped country of 240mn has since been short-changed by the international community.



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Typically, most of the money pledged in assistance to needy nations comes in the form of more high-interest debt rather than grants, with developing nations pushing for reform of the World Bank and IMF systems at meetings this week



Officials and aid workers in Sindh are racing before another disaster strikes to use the money that has been freed up to reconstruct more than 2mn homes in what they say is one of the world’s largest housing rehabilitation projects. Sindh People’s Housing for Flood Affectees (SPHF), a non-profit company launched by the provincial government armed with some $2bn, mostly from the World Bank and other development lenders, has already built 200,000 brick-and-cement homes with another 700,000 still under construction, sturdier replacements for the traditional mud-and-thatch huts. SPHF and the Sindh government faced a slow start, as they wrangled with cautious development banks, risk-shy local lenders and feudal landlords to secure project funding, open bank accounts for flood survivors, and provide formal land titles or tenancy agreements to allow victims, many of whom work as peasants, the right to build a home. Khalid Sheikh Mehmood, the chief executive of SPHF, expects that his organisation will be able to complete all of its reconstruction by 2026 and that the project will pay for itself threefold. “You’re giving someone a new house that doesn’t fall in heavy rains, a house they can protect their livestock, their asset, in, and a sense of empowerment,” he said. “That $2bn will easily turn into $7bn of value.”

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A key figure in climate finance, Avinash Persaud, special adviser on climate change to the president of the Inter-American Development Bank, said Pakistan’s experience was not unusual for countries in its position. “As often happens that money doesn’t materialise or it is highly conditional. The conditions aren’t able to be reached; they are not practical. “It is a real problem when so much of loss and damage after a flood is not money you can recoup. You are rebuilding homes that have been washed away, schools and clinics that have been washed away. If nations have to do that every time they will sink on the oceans of debt before the sea levels rise up themselves. That is why we do need it to be grant-based. “The reality is what happened in Pakistan is not unusual. When people said this would be a test case [for loss and damage], what they were sort of saying was this can’t be a repeat of what normally happens. We need to show this is different. But unfortunately it wasn’t different.” Former Pakistan climate minister Rehman has a stark message for other vulnerable nations, particularly those near the equator, that are not climate resilient. “In a word, I’m disappointed. If there is a lesson in all this, it’s fend for yourselves.”

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan requests $1 bln in IMF climate cash and sees reserves rising

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-formally-reques...


Pakistan seeks $1 bln from IMF climate facility, finance minister says
Pakistan in talks on AIIB support for planned Panda bond
Forex reserves expected to reach $13 bln by March
WASHINGTON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Pakistan is targeting around $1 billion in a formal request for funding from the IMF facility that helps low and middle income countries mitigate climate risk, its finance minister told Reuters.
"We have formally requested to be considered for this facility," Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in an interview on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank autumn meetings in Washington.
The International Monetary Fund had already agreed a $7 billion bailout for Pakistan, but has further funding available via its Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST).
The RST, created in 2022, provides long-term concessional cash for climate-related spending, such as adaptation and transitioning to cleaner energy.
"We think we are a very good candidate to be considered for a facility like this," Aurangzeb said, adding that they aim to conclude the request in the coming months.
The South Asian nation is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change according to the Global Climate Risk Index.
Floods in 2022, which scientists said were aggravated by global warming, affected at least 33 million people and killed more than 1,700. The country's economic struggles and high debt burden impinged its ability to respond to the disaster.
Pakistan is also in talks with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank for a credit enhancement for a planned Panda bond, Aurangzeb said. It is targeting an initial issuance of $200-250 million by the end of June.

A Panda bond would be Pakistan's first foray into China's capital markets. Aurangzeb said they were talking to "a few other institutions" in addition to the AIIB for a credit enhancement.
Credit enhancements provide some level of guarantee for bonds, which can boost their rating, attract more investors and thus cut the government's borrowing costs.
Issuing in the world's "second largest and the second deepest" capital market was, Aurangzeb said, the key aim, rather than a particular issuance size.

"From our perspective it is diversification of the funding base," Aurangzeb. "Even if the inaugural issue is not significant in size, for us it is important that we print that and of course then we can keep it on tap."
Aurangzeb said Pakistan has engaged with Middle Eastern banks regarding commercial loans, and one had submitted "a relatively significant proposal."
Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves should reach $13 billion by the end of March, Aurangzeb said, which would help with commercial lending, and potentially its credit rating.

The foreign exchange reserves reached $11.04 billion in the week ending Oct. 18, the central bank said.
Moody's upgraded Pakistan's ratings to 'Caa2' in August, citing improving macroeconomic conditions, and Fitch boosted its rating to CCC+ in July following the IMF staff level agreement. But both ratings are sub investment grade.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan's housing initiative shines at COP29 - Daily Times

https://dailytimes.com.pk/1240469/pakistans-housing-initiative-shin...


(Murad Ali) Shah highlighted several key milestones: Currently, 2.1 million homes are being constructed. Over 1 million bank accounts have been opened, facilitating 810,000 disbursements to families affected by floods. In Sindh alone, 300,000 climate-resilient houses have already been completed. The next phase will focus on enhancing Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) facilities, with 60,000 resilient settlements currently in progress.

In a gesture of gratitude, a flood-affected village has been named after UN Secretary-General António Guterres, recognizing his support. CM Sindh expressed his sincere appreciation to the global community for their unwavering assistance.

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Beginning the session, Ms. Xiaohong Yang, when asked about the inclusion of technology and transparency in the project’s execution, said, “It truly deserves outstanding applause. The transformational digitalization through the MIS mechanism means that anywhere, anytime, we can see how funds are being spent and how many facilities are being built. We know the exact number of women beneficiaries and are working to create a resilient system for future floods by including community input in the project design. This strategy of transparency adopted by the Government of Sindh leadership has accelerated the efficiency of the project tremendously.”

The initiative’s cutting-edge Management Information System (MIS) has revolutionized aid distribution through direct beneficiary transfers, eliminating intermediaries and setting new global benchmarks for transparency in humanitarian assistance.

Addressing what motivated the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) to support the SPHF initiative, Dr. Issa Faye stated, “It is in our charter to show solidarity and support the countries of our Ummah. We need to deliver for the people of Pakistan. Our strategy is based on two pillars: one, green, sustainable infrastructure development-building resilience-which completely aligns with this project; and second, human capital development. These two pillars provide the framework to support this project. Beyond this, we have witnessed the deep commitment from the Sindh government toward rehabilitating rural Sindh, reaffirming our ongoing support.”

SPHF’s pioneering approach extends beyond housing to comprehensive community rebuilding. Through innovative settlement-level planning, the program integrates GIS technology, household surveys, and community engagement to create climate-resilient villages.

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Flood-damaged water channels restored in Balochistan

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2511567/flood-damaged-water-channels-r...

Balochistan govt has restored water channels damaged in the 2022 floods to support the province's agricultural sector, a move officials say will benefit 57,000 acres of farmland and boost annual agricultural output by an estimated Rs1 billion.

Thousands of farmers in Balochistan are expected to see direct benefits from the restored channels, which will enhance irrigation and improve crop yields, Express News reported.

The restored infrastructure is part of broader efforts to promote sustainable development in the region, supporting Balochistan's path to economic progress through agricultural advancements.

Agricultural officials noted that the project not only aims to stabilise food security in Balochistan but also represents a milestone for economic growth by creating reliable water sources for local farming communities.

Last week, the Sindh People's Housing Foundation (SPHF) completed the construction of more than 300,000 houses, the world's largest housing project, while 810,000 houses are in various stages of completion.

Through this revolutionary project, houses will be constructed for more than 2.1 million families displaced in the 2022 floods in Sindh, all these houses are being built keeping in mind the challenges of climate change.