American Prof John Mearsheimer on International Geopolitics in South Asia

[Riaz Haq]

Professor John Mearsheimer, a renowned international relations expert known for his theory of "offensive realism", has recently spoken to India's CNN-News18 about the impact of US-China competition on geopolitics in South Asia. Sharing his thoughts in interviews on India-Pakistan conflict after the Pahalgam attack, he said: "There is really no military solution to this (Kashmir) problem. The only way this can be solved once and for all is through a political solution that both sides find acceptable". 

Professor John Mearsheimer on India-Pakistan Conflict

Professor John Mearsheimer is a highly respected professor of political science at the University of Chicago. Here's how he introduces himself on his personal website:  "I am the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor in the Political Science Department at the University of Chicago, where I have taught since 1982. Above all else, I am an international relations theorist. More specifically, I am a realist, which means that I believe that the great powers dominate the international system, and they constantly engage in security competition with each other, which sometimes leads to war". 

He has said that neither China nor the US want a full-scale war between India and Pakistan that could escalate into a nuclear war. However, it is in China's interest to "see significant tensions between India and Pakistan to get India to devote a lot of its strategic thinking and resources against Pakistan" rather than on China. The US, on the other hand, wants India to focus all its energies on countering China. 

Talking about the recent "Operation Sindoor" launched by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi against Pakistan, Mearsheimer said it will not deter Pakistan. "By Operation Sindoor, India has responded like it has in the past. Don't think India wants a major war with Pakistan, it can't dominate on the lower or even the middle rungs of the escalation ladder", he said. 

On Chinese involvement in South Asia, Mearsheimer said: "China-Pakistan relations are quite good. The Chinese are providing excellent weaponry to Pakistan and will provide even better weapons in future".  "I don’t think China wants an India-Pakistan war but it wants to see significant tensions between India and Pakistan to get India to devote a lot of its strategic thinking and resources against Pakistan", he added. 

Talking about the US interest in South Asia, he said: "When it comes to countering China, India is the most important country for the US in South Asia. But the US also wants to maintain good relations with Pakistan to try to peel it away from China". 

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[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan army chief visits China, 1st since Trump meeting

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/pakistan-army-chief-visits-ch...


This marks first visit by Pakistani army chief to Beijing after recent conflict with India in May
China will always make Pakistan a priority in its neighborhood diplomacy, top diplomat Wang Yi tells Munir
ISLAMABAD / ISTANBUL

Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, visited China, where he met with top political and military leaders Thursday, marking his first trip since his unprecedented meeting with US President Donald Trump last month.

This was also Munir’s first visit to Beijing following a recent armed clash with India in May that left dozens dead and six aircraft downed.

During his visit, Munir met with Vice President Han Zheng and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, said a Pakistani military statement on Friday.

Talks focused on regional security, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and broader geopolitical cooperation.

They reaffirmed their commitment to sovereign equality, multilateral cooperation, and long-term regional stability.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang and Munir met on Thursday in Beijing, where the Chinese top diplomat lauded the Pakistani military "as a staunch defender of national interests and a firm supporter of China-Pakistan friendship."

"China and Pakistan are ironclad friends and all-weather strategic cooperative partners (and) China will, as always, take Pakistan as a priority in its neighborhood diplomacy," Wang told Munir, according to a readout of the meeting released by the Chinese foreign ministry.

Hoping that the Pakistani military "will continue to make efforts for the development of China-Pakistan relations, Wang told Munir, Beijing "is ready to work with Pakistan to... make due contributions to peace and stability in the region."

Extending support to Pakistan in "resolutely combating all forms of terrorism," Wang said he hopes that the Pakistani military "will continue to make all-out efforts to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel, projects and institutions in Pakistan."

Munir held further meetings with Gen. Zhang Youxia, vice chair of China’s Central Military Commission, and senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officials at the PLA Army Headquarters in Beijing. The discussions were “focused on strengthening counterterrorism efforts, joint training, and defense modernization,” said the Pakistani military statement.

The Chinese military leadership "reiterated full confidence in the strength of the bilateral defense partnership and acknowledged Pakistan’s pivotal role in promoting regional peace," it added.

Munir also lauded China’s “unwavering support and emphasized Pakistan’s dedication to deepening military-to-military ties across all domains.”

[Riaz Haq]

Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
This is a funny and very revealing exchange: https://x.com/TristanNodalo/status/1947700345905549342/video/1

Filipino President Marcos, undoubtedly the most committed US vassal in Asia, doubles down on his commitment to the US in front of Trump, saying "there's no need to balance the relationship between the US and China" and that his "strongest partner has always been the US."

Trump immediately rebukes him, saying he "doesn't mind if [Marcos] gets along with China because we're getting along with China very well," and telling Marcos that getting along with China is "doing what's right for his country," would "make the Philippines great again" and "wouldn't bother me at all."

Now there are two ways to read this.

Either Trump is being disingenuous and in fact wants to continue traditional US foreign policy of containing China through regional alliances, and his public comments are merely rhetoric designed to appear reasonable while privately maintaining pressure on Marcos to choose sides in the US-China competition.

Or he does in fact represent a shift in US foreign policy whereby he accepts the reality of a multipolar world where containment is impossible and vassals like Marcos are therefore costs without much strategic benefit, from whom America won't require the anti-China alignment that defined the alliance system. In fact, in a multipolar world, as Trump is saying, it makes more sense for the US to "get along with China very well" and treat Beijing as a co-equal power rather than maintaining the expensive pretense of global hegemony.

I personally think it's becoming more and more obvious the latter is the case, as I argued in my recent article:
https://open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbertrand/p/has-america-in-fact-...

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1949086436587618421

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Marcos returns 'empty-handed' as Trump says he doesn't mind if Philippines gets along with China - Global Times

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202507/1339053.shtml

uring a meeting with visiting Philippine President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump told media, "I don't mind if he gets along with China, because we're getting along with China very well." The comment was seen by the media as catching Marcos off guard, interpreting it as a stunning message to the Philippine president regarding China.

When asked how he plans to balance his country's relationships between the US and China, Marcos said there was no need to balance. "Our strongest partner has always been the US," Marcos said.

However, in response, Trump said "We're getting along with China very well. And I don't mind if the president dealt with China, you know, because I think he has to do what's right for his country."

"I've always said, you know, make the Philippines great again. Do whatever you need to do, but [if] you're dealing with China, wouldn't bother me at all," Trump said.

Marcos is hoping that his meeting with Trump will help secure Manila's status as a key Asian ally and lead to a more favorable trade deal before the August 1 deadline, Reuters reported. The Associated Press also noted that the Philippine president's three-day visit underscores the importance of the US-Philippines alliance at a time when tensions between China and the Philippines remain high over disputes in the South China Sea.

The Hindustan Times described Trump's message to Marcos as "stunning."

Trump also said he will probably visit China "in the not too distant future," in answer to a question during his meeting with Marcos, per AP.