American Prof John Mearsheimer on International Geopolitics in South Asia

Professor John Mearsheimer, a renowned international relations expert known for his theory of "offensive realism", has recently spoken to India's CNN-News18 about the impact of US-China competition on geopolitics in South Asia. Sharing his thoughts in interviews on India-Pakistan conflict after the Pahalgam attack, he said: "There is really no military solution to this (Kashmir) problem. The only way this can be solved once and for all is through a political solution that both sides find acceptable". 

Professor John Mearsheimer on India-Pakistan Conflict

Professor John Mearsheimer is a highly respected professor of political science at the University of Chicago. Here's how he introduces himself on his personal website:  "I am the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor in the Political Science Department at the University of Chicago, where I have taught since 1982. Above all else, I am an international relations theorist. More specifically, I am a realist, which means that I believe that the great powers dominate the international system, and they constantly engage in security competition with each other, which sometimes leads to war". 

He has said that neither China nor the US want a full-scale war between India and Pakistan that could escalate into a nuclear war. However, it is in China's interest to "see significant tensions between India and Pakistan to get India to devote a lot of its strategic thinking and resources against Pakistan" rather than on China. The US, on the other hand, wants India to focus all its energies on countering China. 

Talking about the recent "Operation Sindoor" launched by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi against Pakistan, Mearsheimer said it will not deter Pakistan. "By Operation Sindoor, India has responded like it has in the past. Don't think India wants a major war with Pakistan, it can't dominate on the lower or even the middle rungs of the escalation ladder", he said. 

On Chinese involvement in South Asia, Mearsheimer said: "China-Pakistan relations are quite good. The Chinese are providing excellent weaponry to Pakistan and will provide even better weapons in future".  "I don’t think China wants an India-Pakistan war but it wants to see significant tensions between India and Pakistan to get India to devote a lot of its strategic thinking and resources against Pakistan", he added. 

Talking about the US interest in South Asia, he said: "When it comes to countering China, India is the most important country for the US in South Asia. But the US also wants to maintain good relations with Pakistan to try to peel it away from China". 

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Views: 234

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 26, 2025 at 1:02pm

Ghazala Wahab
@ghazalawahab
India lost d plot in #IranIsraelConflict because of its need to stand with Israel. Convergence of Islamophobia & military dependence made India irrelevant even in ME, after its irrelevance in South Asia. Foreign policies r based on pragmatism but draped in morality. Ours has none

https://x.com/ghazalawahab/status/1938081035155071238

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Fidato
@tequieremos
India has twice refused to sign SCO joint statements this month.

Earlier, it declined to endorse a communiqué condemning Israeli attacks on IAEA-monitored nuclear sites in Iran, an NPT signatory.

More recently, it rejected the SCO Defense Ministers’ joint statement apparently because the bloc, led by China and Russia, did not cater India’s unsubstantiated allegations against Pakistan but mentioned India’s sponsor of terror in Balochistan.

These repeated rebuffs underscore two broader mutually reinforcing trends in Indian foreign policy.

First, India, once an aspirant leader of the Global South, is rapidly losing influence due to strategic arrogance and an inflated self-image. Increasingly, its role appears more that of a spoiler than a leader.

Second, these setbacks have forced India to pander before the US-led Western bloc.

In a bid to align with Washington, India has notably shifted from its historical stance on Palestine and abstained from a Gaza ceasefire vote last month and reportedly supplying arms to Israel amid its genocidal campaign in Gaza.

Further, India’s obstruction of BRICS efforts to adopt a common currency is another sign of its westward tilt.

Yet, this pivot has yielded little strategic return: the US and EU continue to overlook India’s anxieties regarding Pakistan, possibly expecting New Delhi to "do more."

https://x.com/tequieremos/status/1938147861473989017

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Ali K.Chishti Official
@thewirepak
India tried to overplay its hand by inserting Pahalgam into the SCO document, only to be dismissed outright for the absurdity. Rajnath Singh refused to sign the final communiqué… no one cared. Another diplomatic embarrassment.

https://x.com/thewirepak/status/1938156413387149499

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 26, 2025 at 8:36pm

Ashok Swain
@ashoswai
Sanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has 10 member countries: China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan, Iran & Belarus. No one sided with India while 9 members wanted a pro-Pakistan resolution. Is this way, Modi isolating Pakistan?

https://x.com/ashoswai/status/1938322680412881030

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 28, 2025 at 9:38am

OPINION - Türkiye’s Asia Anew initiative: Strengthening ties with Malaysia, Indonesia and Pakistan
Türkiye is positioning itself in three crucial geographical, geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geostrategic hubs, where these countries act as 'key allies' in the Southeast and South Asia region
Md. Nazmul Islam |

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/opinion/opinion-turkiye-s-asia-anew-initia...

Nations such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Pakistan perceive Türkiye as a reliable ally, believing that if they were to face external challenges, Türkiye would be among the first or possibly the only country to offer support

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What makes Asia a priority, and why were Malaysia, Indonesia, and Pakistan chosen?

In recent times, global politics has been shifting significantly, largely due to China’s rise and its strategic influence, particularly in Asia. The USA's response to China’s expansion further underscores the region’s growing geopolitical importance. Additionally, initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, or BRICS, alongside the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), or AUKUS, highlight why Asia remains a focal point for international politics, especially for nations aspiring to attain great power status.

Given this perspective, it is obvious that Türkiye, following its crucial role, advocacy, and support, if needed for Syria, Azerbaijan, Somalia, or Qatar, is on the path to becoming an emerging great power. However, to achieve this goal, Türkiye needs more reliable partners and strong allies. In this context, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Pakistan stand out as strategic choices, offering Türkiye the necessary support and opportunities to establish a stronger presence in the region.

Strategically, the geopolitical significance of these three countries explains why Türkiye has chosen to strengthen its cooperation with them. Türkiye is positioning itself in three crucial geographical, geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geostrategic hubs, where these countries act as "key allies" in the Southeast and South Asia region. The entire partnership is founded on a mutually beneficial ‘win-win’ cooperation.

Türkiye aims to prioritize expanding trade and economic ties, followed by enhancing defense cooperation through this partnership. Malaysia and Indonesia are particularly strategic choices for Türkiye due to their significant geoeconomic and geostrategic positions, as both hold strong economic influence globally and regionally. While the partnership initially focused on economic collaboration, both Malaysia and Indonesia have shown a keen interest in deepening defense relations. Türkiye already has a strong defense presence in these countries, with ASELSAN operating a branch in Malaysia and BAYKAR recently signing a major defense partnership with Indonesia during the latest visit. This demonstrates a shared commitment to expanding collaboration beyond trade to include cultural, educational, and broader economic cooperation.

Pakistan’s inclusion is also crucial due to its significant geopolitical role for Türkiye, particularly in shaping its future role in international politics. As highlighted by President Erdogan’s recent visit, Türkiye is seeking not only to expand trade with Pakistan but also to establish a stronger geostrategic and geo-security presence in Central and West Asia. Looking ahead, Türkiye’s growing engagement in Central Asia will be more effective with a solid foothold in Pakistan. To achieve this, Türkiye should prioritize forging a robust defense pact with Pakistan, which could later be expanded to include countries like Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Such a strategic alliance would bolster Türkiye’s regional leadership while allowing it to maintain an independent stance without being drawn into the power struggle between the USA and China.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 30, 2025 at 9:03am

Rabia Akhtar
@Rabs_AA
When a leading analyst like Ashley Tellis argues that India’s Pakistan obsession is self-defeating and strategically incoherent, it’s worth paying attention. His Foreign Affairs piece lays bare how New Delhi’s fixation on outmaneuvering Pakistan continues to undercut India’s ability to confront its real challenge: China.

Modi’s government is only the latest in a line of Indian leaderships that have struggled with this. As Tellis points out, India’s strategic autonomy mantra and its reluctance to align squarely with the United States has long been framed as a multipolar ideal. Yet this posture has delivered neither security nor the great-power status India seeks.

If India has not managed a fundamental shift despite two decades of deepening U.S. ties, what exactly would it take for such a redirection to happen? Until then, India remains caught in a cycle of balancing illusions, unable to transcend its own Pakistan complex and unwilling to fully anchor its future in a coherent grand strategy.

https://x.com/Rabs_AA/status/1939684438503264528

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Will the Modi government’s policies and beliefs thwart India’s international ambitions?

https://www.youtube.com/live/pnev9iJ3LZI

India believes it could be a rival of China in 25 year’s time. But is that likely? India wants to be a superpower by 2050. But is that a realistic ambition? In other words, is Viksit Bharat achievable? Ashley Tellis, The Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes India’s economic performance, its foreign affairs strategies and the authoritarian and illiberal practices of the Modi government could thwart India’s proud ambitions. That’s the message of his recent essay in Foreign Affairs magazine. But what are his reasons for coming to this conclusion?

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India’s Great-Power Delusions
How New Delhi’s Grand Strategy Thwarts Its Grand Ambitions
Ashley J. Tellis

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/indias-great-power-delusions

Since the turn of the century, the United States has sought to help India rise as a great power.


In military terms, it is the most significant conventional power in South Asia, but here, too, its advantages over its local rival are not enormous: in fighting in May, Pakistan used Chinese-supplied defense systems to shoot down Indian aircraft. With China on one side and an adversarial Pakistan on the other, India must always fear the prospect of an unpalatable two-front war. Meanwhile, at home, the country is shedding one of its main sources of strength—its liberal democracy—by embracing Hindu nationalism. This evolution could undermine India’s rise by intensifying communal tensions and exacerbating problems with its neighbors, forcing it to redirect security resources inward to the detriment of outward power projection. The country’s illiberal pivot further undermines the rules-based international order that has served it so well.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 4, 2025 at 9:54am

Tejasswi Prakash
@Tiju0Prakash
"Pakistan was in the front, with China providing all possible support...Turkey also played a key role. During DGMO-level talks, Pakistan had live updates of our key vectors from China,"

Deputy Chief of the Indian Army

Our Army is now compelled to publicly speak about its defence requirements, as the current political leadership seems too preoccupied with photo ops and optics to pay any real attention to national security.
#OperationSindoor

https://x.com/Tiju0Prakash/status/1941079746781094292

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The STRATCOM Bureau
@OSPSF
India’s Deputy Army Chief, Lieutenant General Rahul Singh shocked by Pakistan’s ISR reach into India.

He says that during DGMO deescalation talks Pakistan had live tracking of Indian assets preparing to launch missions, which would be responded to immediately if not called back:

https://x.com/OSPSF/status/1941088112702316951

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 4, 2025 at 6:13pm

Indian General Making Excuses for Losing to Pakistan

By AK Chishti

You know who keeps justifying losses again and again? Losers. Just like the Indian Deputy Chief’s briefing more about calming their own people than facing reality. Pakistan didn’t just hit hard, we hit their morale. #OperationSindoor tunrns Tandoor!

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Syed Talat Hussain
@TalatHussain12
His stutters and stammers aside, what he is telling you is a) how I'll-prepared India was b) how bad was their war strategy c) how poorly they anticipated the adversary's capabilities d) how vulnerable their various flanks were in the combat zone. In so many poorly-strung sentences, he is saying: we were roasted.

https://x.com/TalatHussain12/status/1941185551127777530

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FJ
@Natsecjeff
"We were not fighting one adversary but three: Pakistan, China and Turkey"

Based on that logic, Pakistan could argue the same with India using weapons platforms from France, Israel and Russia.

https://x.com/Natsecjeff/status/1941141295080362318

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Conversation
Rabia Akhtar
@Rabs_AA
Imagine fearing an adversary so much, you convince yourself it wasn’t them but their friends that beat you. When a military starts believing that its adversary’s strength lies solely in foreign support, it stops preparing for the adversary itself. And underestimating an opponent by outsourcing their strength to others may soothe national ego but it is a dangerous way to lose the next war.

Lt Gen Rahul Singh’s statement is less a reflection of battlefield realities and more a projection of post-crisis insecurities. Yes, Pakistan absorbed hits and we took some damage. But what matters is what happened next. When the dust settled in May 2025, it wasn’t China or Turkey that forced India into DGMO-level talks, it was Pakistan’s calibrated, multi-domain response that exposed critical vulnerabilities in Indian assumptions.

The narrative that Pakistan acted as a 'front' and China 'tested weapons' is a convenient deflection from India’s own overreach and intelligence lapses. If 81% of Pakistani hardware is Chinese, then perhaps it's time to ask why India’s Israeli, American, Russian, and French-supplied systems still failed to prevent deep penetration strikes, drone swarms, and jamming of critical vectors.

Referring to Pakistan as a ‘live lab’ for Chinese weapons not only demeans Pakistan’s sovereign military capabilities, but also undermines India’s own credibility as a serious power if it believes its adversary's strength depends entirely on another's support.

If China is gaining operational feedback, that is a separate strategic reality. But the core issue remains: India initiated escalation, misread the deterrence ladder, and now wants to outsource blame. If anything, the May 2025 crisis exposed that imported hardware is no substitute for indigenous competence, India’s underperformance made that abundantly clear.

Next time, before India imagines hitting population centers, it might want to review the wreckage of May 2025, both literal and reputational. Strategic miscalculation is more an Indian mindset problem than a technology gap.

https://x.com/Rabs_AA/status/1941199617099444292

Comment by Riaz Haq on Saturday

‘Now there is a threat from three fronts’: The emerging alliance of China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, and the concerns of General Anil Chauhan

https://fukatsoft.com/b/public/BlogView/now-there-is-a-threat-from-...

Where is India Failing?


Manoj Joshi believes that “India should stop using issues like terrorism for domestic politics.” He adds, “The Modi government needs to separate foreign policy from domestic political agendas. For example, the G-20 summit was portrayed as a huge achievement, but we need less showmanship and more concrete actions on the ground. Even Bhutan did not support Operation Sand Dune.” Defense analyst Uday Bhaskar thinks that CDS General Anil Chauhan has presented a significant assessment of India's complex security challenges. He says, “Indian strategic planners had so far been focusing on two-front threats, but now they may be dealing with a three-front challenge. China seems to be successfully drawing Bangladesh into its camp alongside Pakistan. This possibility wasn’t seriously considered before the likely departure of Sheikh Hasina.” Rahul Bedi adds, “Trump’s stance has boosted Pakistan’s credibility. The U.S. invited Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir for lunch at the White House. Ten days later, Pakistan’s Air Chief also visited the U.S. It is being speculated that America might even resume arms supplies to Pakistan.”


How did Pakistan suddenly become so important for America?


Rahul Bedi says, “Pakistan’s geographical location is considered highly strategic. It shares borders with China, Afghanistan, Iran, and the Central Asian countries. This makes it a critical location. Moreover, Balochistan has rare earth minerals, which are in global demand. After Operation Sand Dune, it became clear that aside from Israel, no one supported India. International organizations condemned terrorism, but not Pakistan.” When asked whether India has made any mistakes in this situation, Bedi replied, “A prominent Indian diplomat told me that India talks a lot but does very little in practice.” “India has a strong army and navy, but when officials from countries like Japan and the U.S. come and observe things on the ground, the reality looks very different,” he added. Professor Sreeradha Datta Pathak, who teaches China Studies at O.P. Jindal University, also believes that Bangladesh joining China and Pakistan raises the security threat for India. She says, “China is working to make the Lalmonirhat air base in Bangladesh operational again, which would be a serious threat to Indian security. Naturally, India is preparing for this.” “We can’t just wait for a change of government in Bangladesh. China is trying to keep India entangled with its neighboring countries to avoid facing any direct challenge,” she emphasized. However, Professor Pathak does not believe that Pakistan’s global reputation has improved. She states, “We can't expect too much from the U.S. The West’s stance on terrorism has always been like this. Israel was the only country that said India had the right to defend itself. Unfortunately, we were part of a BRICS resolution that condemned Israel.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on Monday

Trump's renewed interest in Pakistan has India recalibrating China ties | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trumps-renewed-interest-pakista...

NEW DELHI, July 21 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's lunch meeting with Pakistan's military chief prompted a private diplomatic protest from India in a warning to Washington about risks to their bilateral ties while New Delhi is recalibrating relations with China as a hedge, officials and analysts said.
The meeting and other tensions in the U.S.-India relationship, after decades of flourishing ties, have cast a shadow in trade negotiations, they said, as Trump's administration weighs tariffs against one of its major partners in the Indo-Pacific.
India blames Pakistan, especially its military establishment, for supporting what it calls cross-border terrorism and has told the U.S. it is sending the wrong signals by wooing Field Marshal Asim Munir, three senior Indian government officials directly aware of the matter told Reuters.
It has created a sore spot that will hamper relations going forward, they said.
Pakistan denies accusations that it supports militants who attack Indian targets and that New Delhi has provided no evidence that it is involved.
U.S.-India ties have strengthened in the past two decades despite minor hiccups, at least partly because both countries seek to counter China.
The current problems are different, said Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based senior fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation think tank.
"The frequency and intensity with which the U.S. is engaging with Pakistan, and seemingly not taking Indian concerns into account, especially after India's recent conflict with Pakistan, has contributed to a bit of a bilateral malaise."
"The concern this time around is that one of the triggers for broader tensions, that being Trump's unpredictability, is extending into the trade realm with his approach to tariffs," he said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's office and India's foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. The foreign ministry has previously said that it had "taken note" of the Trump-Munir meeting.
A U.S. official said they do not comment on private diplomatic communications and that the United States enjoys strong relationships with both India and Pakistan.
"These relationships stand on their own merits, and we do not compare our bilateral relationships with one another," the U.S. official said.
LUNCH AT THE WHITE HOUSE
The U.S. seems to have taken a different tack on Pakistan after a brief conflict broke out between the nuclear-armed rivals in May when India launched strikes on what it called terrorist targets across the border in response to a deadly attack on tourists from the majority Hindu community in Indian Kashmir the previous month.
After four days of aerial dogfights, missile and drone attacks, the two sides agreed to a cease-fire.
Hindu-majority India and Islamic Pakistan have skirmished regularly and fought three full-scale wars since independence in 1947, two of them over the disputed Kashmir region.
A few weeks after the May fighting, Trump hosted Munir for lunch at the White House, a major boost in ties with the country, which had largely languished under Trump's first term and Joe Biden. It was the first time a U.S. president had hosted the head of Pakistan's army, considered the most powerful man in the country, at the White House unaccompanied by senior Pakistani civilian officials.
Indian leaders have said Munir's view of India and Pakistan is steeped in religion. "Tourists were murdered in front of their families after ascertaining their faith," Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said in May, referring to the Kashmir attack.

Comment by Riaz Haq on Monday

Trump's renewed interest in Pakistan has India recalibrating China ties | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trumps-renewed-interest-pakista...

"To understand that, you've got to also see...you have a Pakistani leadership, especially their army chief, who is driven by an extreme religious outlook".
Pakistan says it is Modi who is driven by religious extremism, and that his brand of Hindu nationalism has trampled on the rights of India's large Muslim minority. Modi and the Indian government say they do not discriminate against minorities.
Munir's meeting in the White House added to India's chagrin over Trump's repeated insistence that he averted nuclear war between the two nations by threatening to stop trade negotiations with them. The comment drew a sharp response from Modi, who told Trump that the ceasefire was achieved through talks between army commanders of the two nations, and not U.S. mediation.
In the days following his June 18 meeting with Munir, people from Modi's office and India's national security adviser's office made separate calls to their U.S. counterparts to register a protest, two of the officials said. The protest has not been previously reported.
"We have communicated to the U.S. our position on cross-border terrorism, which is a red line for us," said a senior Indian official. "These are difficult times ... Trump's inability to understand our concerns does create some wrinkle in ties," he added, seeking anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Trump and Munir discussed continuation of a counter-terrorism collaboration, under which the U.S. has previously provided weapons to Pakistan, a non-NATO U.S. ally, and talked about ways to further strengthen ties, a Pakistani readout of the meeting said.
That raised concern in New Delhi that any arms Pakistan receives from the U.S. could be turned on India if the neighbours end up in conflict again, two of the officials said.
HARDER STANCE
Despite what used to be public displays of bonhomie between Trump and Modi, India has been taking a slightly harder stance against the U.S. in recent weeks, while trade discussions have also slowed, the Indian officials and an Indian industry lobbyist said.
Modi declined an invitation from Trump to visit Washington after the G7 meeting in Canada in June.
Earlier this month, New Delhi proposed retaliatory duties against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization, showing trade talks were not going as smoothly as they were before the India-Pakistan clashes.
India, like other nations, is trying to figure out a way to deal with Trump and is recalibrating ties with China as a hedge, said Harsh Pant, foreign policy head at India's Observer Research Foundation think tank.
"Certainly there is an outreach to China," he said. "And I think it is mutual...China is also reaching out".
Last week, India's Jaishankar made his first visit to Beijing since a deadly 2020 border clash between Indian and Chinese troops.
India is also making moves to ease restrictions on investments from China that were imposed following the 2020 clash.
The thaw comes despite India's prickly relations with China and Beijing's close ties and military support to Pakistan.
But New Delhi's concern about Trump's own engagement with China, which has ranged from conciliatory to confrontational, appears to have contributed to its shift in stance on Beijing.
"With an unpredictable dealmaker in the White House, New Delhi cannot rule out Sino-U.S. rapprochement," said Christopher Clary, an associate professor of political science at the University at Albany, New York.
"India is troubled by Chinese help to Pakistan and growing Chinese influence elsewhere in India's near abroad, such as Bangladesh. Yet New Delhi has largely concluded that it should respond to creeping Chinese influence by focusing its pressures on its nearest neighbours and not on China."

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