Modi's India: A Paper Elephant?

[Riaz Haq]

"Desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai", acknowledged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his military's recent failures against Pakistan in Balakot and Kashmir. This marked a major shift in Modi's belligerent tone that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch ki chhati" (56 inch chest) and  talk of  "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "boli nahin goli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan in the last few years.  The recent events are forcing India's western backers to reassess their strategy of boosting India as a counterweight to China.

Balakot and Kashmir:

Indian government and media have made a series of false claims about Balakot "militant casualties" and "shooting down Pakistani F16".  These claims have been scrutinized and debunked by independent journalists, experts and fact checkers. There is no dispute about the fact that Squadron Leader Hasan Siddiqui of Pakistan Air Force (PAF), flying a Pakistan-made JF-17 fighter, shot down Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman of Indian Air Force (IAF) flying a Russia made MiG 21. Abhinandan was captured by Pakistan and then released to India.

Beautiful Balakot, Kaghan Valley, Pakistan

Western Narrative:

The widely accepted western narrative about India and Pakistan goes like this: "India is rapidly rising while Pakistan is collapsing". In a 2015 report from South Asia, Roger Cohen of New York Times summed it up as follows: "India is a democracy and a great power rising. Pakistan is a Muslim homeland that lost half its territory in 1971, bounced back and forth between military and nominally democratic rule, never quite clear of annihilation angst despite its nuclear weapons".

India-Pakistan Military Spending: Infographic Courtesy The Economist

India: A Paper Elephant?

In an article titled "Paper Elephant", the Economist magazine talked about how India has ramped up its military spending and emerged as the world's largest arms importer. "Its military doctrine envisages fighting simultaneous land wars against Pakistan and China while retaining dominance in the Indian Ocean", the article said. It summed up the situation as follows: "India spends a fortune on defense and gets poor value for money".

Pakistan Defense Spending. Source: Jane's Defense

After the India-Pakistan aerial combat over Kashmir, New York Times published a story from its South Asia correspondent headlined: "After India Loses Dogfight to Pakistan, Questions Arise About Its Military".  Here are some excerpts of the report:

"Its (India's) loss of a plane last week to a country (Pakistan) whose military is about half the size and receives a quarter (a sixth according to SIPRI) of the funding is telling. ...India’s armed forces are in alarming shape....It was an inauspicious moment for a military the United States is banking on to help keep an expanding China in check".

India-Pakistan Ratios of Tanks and Soldiers

Ineffective Indian Military:

Academics who have studied Indian military have found that it is ineffective by design. In "Army and Nation: The Military and Indian Democracy Since Independence",  the author Steven I. Wilkinson, Nilekani Professor of India and South Asian Studies and Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Yale, has argued that the civil-military constraints that have helped prevent a coup have hurt Indian military effectiveness and preparedness in at least three important ways:

(1) the weakening of the army before the 1962 China war;

(2) the problems caused for defense coordination and preparation by unwieldy defense bureaucracy, duplication of functions among different branches and lack of sharing of information across branches and

(3) the general downgrading of pay and perks since independence which has left the army with huge shortage of officers that affected the force's discipline capabilities.

Summary:

India's international perception as a "great power rising" has suffered a serious setback as a result of its recent military failures against Pakistan which spends only a sixth of India's military budget and ranks 17th in the world, far below India ranking 4th by globalfirepower.com.  "Desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai", acknowledged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his military's recent failures in Balakot and Kashmir. This marked a major shift in Modi's belligerent tone that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch ki chhati" (56 inch chest) and  talk of  "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "boli nahin goli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan in the last few years.  The recent events are forcing India's western backers to reassess their strategy of boosting India as a counterweight to China.

Here's a discussion on the subject:

https://youtu.be/tEWf-6cT0PM


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Here's Indian Prime Minister Modi making excuses for his military's failures:

https://youtu.be/QIt0EAAr3PU

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Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

China-Pakistan Defense Production Collaboration Irks West

Balakot and Kashmir: Fact Checkers Expose Indian Lies

Is Pakistan Ready for War with India?

Pakistan-Made Airplanes Lead Nation's Defense Exports

Modi's Blunders and Delusions 

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan?

Project Azm: Pakistan to Develop 5th Generation Fighter Jet

Pakistan Navy Modernization

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Who Won the 1965 War? India or Pakistan?

Pakistani Military's Performance in 1971 War

[Riaz Haq]

As tensions escalate with #China and #Pakistan, #India faces tests on two fronts at once. Indian Prime Minister Narendra #Modi spoke Tuesday with President Donald #Trump on "the situation on the India-China border". #Ladakh #Kashmir #CPEC https://www.newsweek.com/china-pakistan-tensions-india-test-two-fro...


After a spat of unarmed clashes along his country's roughly 2,100-mile with China last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke Tuesday with President Donald Trump on "the situation on the India-China border," according to a readout. The U.S. leader had offered to mediate the feud, but both New Delhi and Beijing have rejected the offer and maintained the situation was under control.

"At present, the overall situation in the China-India border areas is stable and controllable," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told reporters in Beijing on Wednesday.

"On border-related issues, there have been sound mechanisms and channels of communication between China and India, and the two sides are capable of properly resolving relevant issues through dialogue and consultation," he added. "There is no need for any third party to intervene."


But there was no indication that the situation had yet been resolved. After the Communist Party's official publication Global Times reported last week that border forces had been armed with new tanks, drones and helicopters, state television reported that the Chinese military had recently held high-altitude infiltration exercises at the Tanggula Mountains in Tibet, the far western province that borders India.

It was along this contested boundary between China-controlled Aksai Chin and India-administered Ladakh that patrols from both sides clashed several times at the sites of Pangong Lake, Galwan Valley, Demchok and Daulat Beg Oldie. The skirmishes were prompted by India's recent development near the sensitive Line of Actual Control dividing the two countries.

Indian media, which first reported on the conflict and the buildup of 5,000 Chinese troops at the border, reported Tuesday that New Delhi had moved in more personnel to the area. The next day, however, violence was reported elsewhere in the Himalayan region of Kashmir.

The Indian military reported Wednesday that Pakistan had violated their Line of Control ceasefire with small arms fire and heavy mortar shelling against the town of Nowshera in India-administered Kashmir. Days earlier, the Pakistani armed forces claimed the shootdown of two Indian drones.

While India and China fought a brief 1960s war and clashed occasionally along their borders, New Delhi and Islamabad have fought multiple deadly conflicts over Kashmir since the partition in 1947. India and Pakistan engaged in a dogfight and cross-border strikes last year in the first escalation of its kind in decades after India accused Pakistan of harboring insurgents responsible for a suicide attack on security personnel, a charge the country denies.

The situation intensified after Modi reshaped the Indian constitution in August to assert federal rule over India-administered Kashmir and Ladakh. Both Pakistan and China condemned the move as "unacceptable," with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan warning the security and human rights implications could bring the two nuclear-armed rivals to war.

[Riaz Haq]

#Indian Defense Analyst Dr. Pravin Sawhney: "PAKISTAN HAS NEVER LOST TO INDIA. NOT IN 1965! NOT IN 1971! IF INDIA HAD DEFEATED PAKISTAN, THERE WOULD BE NO LINE OF CONTROL IN KASHMIR TODAY".

[Riaz Haq]

#Indian Defense Analyst Dr. Pravin Sawhney: "PAKISTAN HAS NEVER LOST TO INDIA. NOT IN 1965! NOT IN 1971! IF INDIA HAD DEFEATED PAKISTAN, THERE WOULD BE NO LINE OF CONTROL IN KASHMIR TODAY". #India #Pakistan #China #Kashmir #CPEC | | JNN | https://youtu.be/QfhG-vtLfUs via @YouTube Watch at 33 Minutes in 43:12 Minutes video interview

[Riaz Haq]

#India’s poor politico-strategic choices. #Modi is in a bind after major blunders in #Kashmir. #Ladakh #Galwan #China #Pakistan https://www.thefridaytimes.com/indias-poor-politico-strategic-choices/

Recently, some in the Indian commentariat have begun talking about India facing a two-and-half front conflict situation. Strictly speaking, this is not new. We first heard the phrase in June 2017, just days before the Doklam standoff between India and China.

It was a comment by then-Indian army chief, now Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat. Rawat was speaking to the media. “The Indian Army is fully ready for a two-and-a-half front (China, Pakistan and internal security requirements simultaneously) war,” he was quoted as saying. He also talked about the 17 Mountain Strike Corps being raised from the scratch, as he put it. This Corps is meant specifically for offensive operations against China.

At the time his statement drew many comments in India. Most analysts looked at India’s previous conflicts and determined that politico-military objectives are best gained when a state can focus on a single threat and neutralise it. Two or more fronts, even for a strong state, can be problematic. Resources, both in men and war materials, get divided; logistics can become a nightmare; focus is lost in planning for more than one front at the tactical, theatre and strategic levels; diplomatic space is shrunk when a state is fighting more than one adversary and so on.

Three years from Rawat’s June 2017 statement, India thinks it faces the same situation again. The difference is that unlike the Doklam standoff, the current Sino-India face-off in Eastern Ladakh’s high-altitude barren heights and valleys has drawn blood, Indian blood, while the Chinese army sits comfortably on its gains. India is in a quandary. Despite Rawat’s boast, India doesn’t have many military options against China, not just in a land war scenario but also, as explained in detail by Pravin Sawhney, a former Indian army officer and now Editor of Force Magazine, across the full spectrum of military conflict.

At the Line of Control against Pakistan Army, ceasefire violations continue, however. That said, here too the Indian Army and more notably Indian Air Force know since February 27, 2019, that a misadventure would be costly. It would have been costlier on that morning if the Pakistan Air Force strike package, under directions from the government, had not shown restraint. PAF dominated the skies and controlled communications. Such was the confusion that the air defence unit near Srinagar shot down an Indian Air Force Mi-17 V-5 helicopter belonging to the Srinagar-based No 154 Helicopter Unit. That fratricidal action was even worse than losing a MiG to PAF.

Corollary: the China front is a militarily hopeless situation for India; the Pakistan front is a costly venture. As for Rawat’s half front, the internal security situation, people in the Occupied and now illegally annexed Jammu and Kashmir despise India to the last man and child. Despite a lockdown since August 5, 2019 and incarcerating thousands across jails in India, India has failed to break the spirit of Kashmiris. That front is already lost, unless Rawat, now at the top of the military pecking order as CDS, thinks that killing, maiming, arresting and torturing Kashmiris is a benchmark of success.

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India’s trade volume with China stands at USD86 billion with much greater potential. It could have a peaceful South Asia and trade relations with Pakistan and beyond if it decided to work with Pakistan and China in a cooperative rather than a conflictual framework. But no, it won’t do that. After making poor choices it would double down on them, giving Rawat his misplaced two-and-half-front conflict scenario. If that is not stupid, I don’t know what is.

[Riaz Haq]

#India’s New #Rafale Jet vs. #China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter. Do #French Built Planes Stand a Chance? Simple answer: NO! Rafale is lighter & less capable than #Russian Su-30MKI jet of which India currently deploys over 250. Chinese PL-15 missile is superior https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/india-s-new-rafale-jet-vs...

Looking to the J-20, the fighter has one of the highest altitude ceilings in the world and can comfortably exceed Mach 2 speeds, meaning it will be able to attack the Rafale from above and provide its missiles with much more kinetic and gravitational potential energy. Its range and endurance are among the longest in the world, with the aircraft designed for long distance missions over the Pacific. More important than its flight performance advantages however are its technological ones. As a fifth generation fighter, the J-20 makes use of an advanced radar cross section reducing airframe. Although the fighters in peacetime often deploy with luneburg reflectors or external fuel tanks, making them easy to detect even at long ranges, when in ‘stealth mode’ the fighters have a small fraction of the radar cross section of any fourth generation jet making them extremely difficult to lock onto. The J-20 further benefits from advanced stealth coatings, an asset the Rafale lacks, which absorb radar waves and augment the stealth advantage already provided by the design of its airframe.

In terms of situational awareness both the Rafale and J-20 deploy AESA radars, with France and China being the first two countries after Japan and the U.S. to integrate such radars onto fighter aircraft. It is important to consider that China’s research and development budget is several times higher, which combined with a much larger and generally more sophisticated military industrial base is expected to provide it with more advanced radar and electronic warfare systems. Not only this, but the J-20’s sheer size, more than twice as large as the Rafale, means it can carry a much heavier radar. The latter factor alone guarantees a significant advantage in situational awareness for the Chinese jet. The J-20’s situational awareness is further augmented by integration of state of the art distributed aperture systems, which are currently deployed only by the Chinese fighter and the American F-35 and will provide an important advantage over the Rafale particularly at closer ranges.

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Finally, looking to weaponry, the J-20 deploys the PL-15 air to air missile with a 250-300km range. The missile makes use of thrust vector controls and has a very high manoeuvrability, although its most outstanding feature is its use of an AESA radar which not only makes it much more difficult to jam than passive radar guided missiles, but also allows it to lock on to its targets at greater distances and better engage stealth targets at range. The Rafale currently deploys the ageing MICA air to air missile, which is effectively obsolete for long range engagements with a range of 80km - respectable for its time but now far surpassed by new Chinese and American technologies. India’s Rafales will, however, soon deploy the Meteor missile which is thought to have a range anywhere between 200-280km, a potential challenge to the PL-15. it remains uncertain whether the Meteor integrates an AESA radar as the PL-15 does, although given the cost equipping missiles with such radars would incur in Europe it is likely that the platform, like the latest American missiles, still uses a passively scanned radar.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan Tests Indigenous Fatah-1 Guided MLRS. It's an indigenously developed multiple launch guided #rocket system that can accurately deliver conventional warheads up to a range of 140 km deep inside enemy territory. #artillery https://quwa.org/2021/01/10/pakistan-tests-indigenous-fatah-1-guide... via @QuwaGroup

Adding to Pakistan’s rocket artillery inventory, the Fatah-1 joins the A-100, Nasr, and Yarmouk-series. Like the Fatah-1, Pakistan manufactures the A-100, Nasr, and Yarmouk domestically.

But in contrast to its other rockets, Pakistan is positioning the Fatah-1 as an offensively oriented weapon. The ISPR says the Fatah-1 gives Pakistan the ability to precisely engage targets “deep in enemy territory.”

Background on the Fatah-1
The Fatah-1 seems to be one of two MLRS the Pakistan Ministry of Defence Production (MoDP) referenced in its annual yearbook in 2015-2016. [1] These were a base MLRS and an “extended-range” MLRS.

In 2019, the ISPR revealed the A-100 (which has a range of over 100 km) as an “indigenous” rocket. If the A-100 is the base MLRS, the 140-km Fatah-1 could be the “extended-range” MLRS design.

There is no confirmed connection between the A-100 and Fatah-1. However, Pakistan apparently localized the A-100, so it would make sense for it to develop the Fatah-1 as a subvariant. If the Fatah-1 is a variant of the A-100, then it could share the same caliber (300 mm) and warhead weight (reportedly 235 kg).

However, this apparent link is only speculation. The Fatah-1 could also be distinct design and, as a result, be a larger rocket design. For reference, the Chinese Weishi or WS-series of rockets have spun out into a diverse line-up of missiles of varying calibres, ranges, and applications.

The ISPR’s mention of “precision target engagement” indicates that Pakistan configured the Fatah-1 with a guidance system. It could be a GPS/INS (or BeiDou/INS)-based suite. This enables Pakistan to feed Fatah-1 missiles with location data of predetermined targets.

Thus, Pakistan could use the Fatah-1 as a long-range strike weapon, and potentially deploy it combination with precision-guided bombs (PGB), land-attack cruise missiles (LACM), and glide-munitions.

How Pakistan May Deploy the Fatah-1
Past footage of Pakistan’s artillery deployments show that it is using the SLC-2 counter-battery radar with the A-100E (which it was using before announcing a locally built variant). However, the range potential of the Fatah-1 exceeds the reported detection range of the SLC-2…

[Riaz Haq]

#India and #Pakistan announce cease-fire for first time in nearly 20 years. Ties between #SouthAsian rivals are frozen since 2019 when #IAF bombed #Balakot and #PAF responded in #Kashmir by downing IAF planes and capturing an #Indian pilot #abhinandan https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-pakistan-ce...

India and Pakistan announced Thursday that their armed forces would cease firing across their shared border, the first such step since 2003 and a potentially significant move toward reducing tensions between the two rivals.

Military officials in the two countries released a joint statement saying they had agreed to a cease-fire that went into effect at midnight, including along the unofficial frontier in the disputed region of Kashmir.

Indian and Pakistani soldiers regularly exchange artillery and small-arms fire in the region, a situation that analysts have described as a war by other means. The low-grade conflict is deadly, with dozens of villagers and military personnel killed each year.

Relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors have been frosty since 2019, when India conducted an airstrike in Pakistan after a terrorist attack killed 40 Indian soldiers in Kashmir. The two countries then engaged in their first aerial dogfight in nearly 50 years. Months later, India revoked Kashmir’s autonomy, further angering Pakistan.

Since then, cross-border firing ­has intensified. There were more than 5,000 such incidents in 2020, according to Indian data, the highest such figure since 2002.

“You’re looking at a lot of loss of life, with villagers getting killed on both sides,” said Happymon Jacob, a professor of international studies and author of a book on clashes between India and Pakistan in Kashmir.

The new agreement, if effective, is “pathbreaking,” said Jacob. It will reduce violence and allow both countries to tell the international community and the Biden administration that they are taking steps to stabilize Kashmir, he said.

Near the highly militarized frontier in Kashmir, the cease-fire announcement is a source of deep relief. Syed Ahmad Habib, 47, lives on the Indian side of the line, but his home is so close to the boundary that he can see houses in Pakistani-controlled territory.

“Someone who has not seen shells rain down cannot imagine the kind of life we are living,” said Habib, 47, who is from a village called Mandhar. A childhood friend died in shelling earlier this year, he said. “If it has stopped, I am glad.”

This is a “very positive” move, said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a security analyst in Pakistan who nevertheless cautioned that it remains unclear whether the agreement will be implemented successfully. If the firing ceases, Rizvi said, it opens the door to other confidence-building measures, such as making it easier for people and goods to travel between India and Pakistan.

In theory, there is an existing cease-fire agreement between the two countries, which share both an international border and a 460-mile long unofficial frontier in Kashmir known as the Line of Control.


The cease-fire understanding was announced in 2003 and, for the next several years, the Line of Control was relatively quiet. But after terrorists killed more than 160 people in Mumbai in 2008 — an attack carried out by a Pakistan-based militant group — incidents of cross-border firing began to increase. Since 2014, they have soared tenfold, according to Indian data.

[Riaz Haq]

Powerful Jets With One Weakness: Pakistani JF-17 Pilot Recalls Clash With Indian Su-30MKIs by Delhi-based Indian journalist Younis Dar


https://eurasiantimes.com/powerful-jets-with-one-weakness-pakistani...

According to warfare experts, real-world dogfights don’t ever happen at close ranges, so the battle usually tilts in the favor of the side with potent BVR missiles. The aerial fights are largely decided, or largely influenced, by the BVR stage of the engagement. And in that arena, the capabilities of the JF-17 are competitive to the F-16 and Mirage.

The JF-17’s main weakness is its limited BVR loadout as it has the ability to only carry four BVR missiles, unlike the Indian Su-30MKI which can carry eight or more.

To close this air-to-air capability gap, the IAF is inducting the indigenously built all-weather Beyond Visual Range (BVR) Astra missile. It is also considering integrating the Israeli I-Derby Extended Range missile on its Su-30MKI fighter, IAF’s frontline fighter aircraft.

These missiles are going to be the mainstay of the Indian air-to-air capability, along with the MICA medium-range BVR, and the long-range Meteor missiles.

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Several of these jets managed to cross the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto India-Pakistan border, releasing precision-guided glide bombs on Indian military installations in the Rajouri sector in Jammu and Kashmir.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) scrambled eight fighter aircraft, including two Russian Sukhoi-30 MKI, to intercept the Pakistani aircraft when the launch of several AIM-120 C5 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) was detected in their direction. The AMRAAMs, launched when the PAF jets were well inside the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, surprised the IAF while they outranged their air-to-air missiles.

The two Su-30MKIs were caught within the 100-km range of the Pakistani AMRAAMs and managed to dodge them. The IAF fighters were saved from being shot but were unable to retaliate against the adversary F-16s as the Russian R-77 missiles they were armed with did not have enough range.

The IAF later said the Russian missiles were unable to deliver the advertised range and cannot engage targets farther than 80 km.

The aerial duel between India and Pakistan had proved that the IAF had to work on its air-to-air missile inventory, which is where the Pakistanis had outpaced them. An Indian MiG-21 Bison was shot down and its pilot captured, while the Indian government claimed its fighter aircraft had downed one Pakistani F-16 during the dogfight.

Pakistan’s Home-Grown JF-17 Fighters
Pakistan’s indigenously-produced JF-17 had proved its mettle during the February 27 dogfight with India, and it was this jet that had managed to shoot down IAF’s MiG-21 Bison, according to the PAF.

The single-engine light fighter is a relatively new combat aircraft and has been competing with fighters like the F-16, Saab Gripen, and MiG-29 for export contracts.

According to the pilots who have flown the JF-17, the aircraft scores high on reliability, flight characteristics, and maintenance. And according to the JF-17 pilot who participated in the February 27 dogfight, the aircraft was getting a radar lock-on Su-30MKI at more than 100-km ranges.

[Riaz Haq]

India’s suspect ‘Quad’ credentials. #COVID19 #pandemic has brutally exposed the hollowness of #India’s pretensions to power, status and influence and boasts of being a #vaccine superpower and #pharmacy to the world. #Quad #Modi #US #China #Hindutva #BJP https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2021/06/05/commentary/world-co...

A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue process brings together Japan, Australia, India and the United States as an informal grouping of democracies to cooperate around the vast and critical Indo-Pacific maritime space.
India has always been the weakest link in the chain. Its sizable armed forces equipped with nuclear weapons are a bulwark against China’s much superior military might. Still, it’s a very poor country with a per capita income of only 3% to 5% of the other three; a weak state with limited capacity to govern a billion plus population; and a soft state without the political will to make and implement tough decisions.
The second wave of COVID-19 in April and May is India’s biggest national tragedy and international embarrassment since partition in 1947. The national and world press covered this in graphic detail (more than they would in their own countries), with images of people gasping to death on the streets, bodies piled up awaiting last rites and cremation and mass numbers of corpses floating in the Ganges River, many of which having washed up on its banks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s carefully cultivated competence bubble has been punctured by the open display of mass ineptitude.
In the wake of this stark and grim reminder of its manifold pathologies and weaknesses, the question must be asked: at which point would India become a liability rather than an asset for the other “Quad” partners? The question is important because the other three are bound together in formal alliances by security treaties and India is not, demonstrating less commitment.
The excitement, expectations and hopes of the Modi government in 2014, with promises of “minimum government, maximum governance” and “sabka sath, sabka viswas, sabka vikash” (with all, with everyone’s trust, development for all), are fading memories. On June 1, India’s official COVID-19 deaths per million was 238 compared to the world average of 457, the U.S. at 1,832, the U.K. at 1,873 and Brazil reporting 2,163.
The crux of the problem thus is not the unmitigated spread of COVID-19 but the lack of a fit-for-purpose public health infrastructure and the availability of medical supplies, equipment and drugs. India is a sobering reminder of why a strong economy is not an optional luxury but an essential requirement for good health.
Modi’s neglect of urgent economic and governance reforms in addition to requirements for a good public health infrastructure — choosing instead to go into a semipermanent campaign mode in every state election and focusing on a Hindu nationalist agenda — further aggravated the COVID-19 misery.
People’s health is vitally dependent on a healthy economy that gives the government the financial wherewithal to create an efficient universal-access public health system. No country achieves better health outcomes by becoming poorer.
The pandemic, for its part, hastened an economic decline that had already begun. According to World Bank figures, India’s annual GDP growth tumbled from 8.3% in 2016 to 4.2% in 2019. It contracted by 7.3% in 2020–2021 and the 2021 GDP forecast has been downgraded by around 17% — the worst among the G20 countries.
India got the worst of both worlds: a smashed economy and a massive COVID-19 toll that peaked in May with the official count recording nearly 400,000 daily new cases and over 4,000 daily new deaths. Recovery will be a long haul on both the disease and the economy front.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan increases defence budget by 6% to USD8.8 billion

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/pakistan-increases-d...


The Pakistan government has announced a defence budget of PKR1.37 trillion (USD8.78 billion) for fiscal year (FY) 2021–22. The allocation is a 6.2% increase over the original 2020–21 defence expenditure of PKR1.29 trillion.

The new defence budget will represent about 16% of the government's total expenditure for 2021–22 and has been announced against the backdrop of Pakistan's improving economy. In 2020–21 the country's GDP is forecast to climb by nearly 4%, despite the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.


The bulk of Pakistan's defence budget is allocated to Defence Services, with a small amount for Defence Administration. The largest expenditure in the former appropriation is employee-related expenses, which in 2021–22 receives PKR481.6 billion, a 1% year-on-year increase.

Defence Services also includes physical assets and operating expenses, which in 2021–22 receive PKR391.5 billion and PKR327.1 billion, increases of 9% and 8% respectively. Expenses for civil works is PKR169.7 billion, while Defence Administration receives PKR3.27 billion.

In terms of the armed services, the Pakistan Army will receive PKR651.5 billion in 2021–22 (or nearly 48% of the total), while the Pakistan Air Force and Pakistan Navy have been allocated PKR291.1 billion and PKR148.7 billion (or 21% and 11%) respectively. The majority of the remainder is allocated for defence-wide requirements.

In a separate appropriation, Pakistan's Defence Production Division, which supports the national defence industry, will receive PKR1.74 billion in 2021–22, an increase of nearly 11%.