Modi's India: A Paper Elephant?

[Riaz Haq]

"Desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai", acknowledged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his military's recent failures against Pakistan in Balakot and Kashmir. This marked a major shift in Modi's belligerent tone that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch ki chhati" (56 inch chest) and  talk of  "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "boli nahin goli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan in the last few years.  The recent events are forcing India's western backers to reassess their strategy of boosting India as a counterweight to China.

Balakot and Kashmir:

Indian government and media have made a series of false claims about Balakot "militant casualties" and "shooting down Pakistani F16".  These claims have been scrutinized and debunked by independent journalists, experts and fact checkers. There is no dispute about the fact that Squadron Leader Hasan Siddiqui of Pakistan Air Force (PAF), flying a Pakistan-made JF-17 fighter, shot down Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman of Indian Air Force (IAF) flying a Russia made MiG 21. Abhinandan was captured by Pakistan and then released to India.

Beautiful Balakot, Kaghan Valley, Pakistan

Western Narrative:

The widely accepted western narrative about India and Pakistan goes like this: "India is rapidly rising while Pakistan is collapsing". In a 2015 report from South Asia, Roger Cohen of New York Times summed it up as follows: "India is a democracy and a great power rising. Pakistan is a Muslim homeland that lost half its territory in 1971, bounced back and forth between military and nominally democratic rule, never quite clear of annihilation angst despite its nuclear weapons".

India-Pakistan Military Spending: Infographic Courtesy The Economist

India: A Paper Elephant?

In an article titled "Paper Elephant", the Economist magazine talked about how India has ramped up its military spending and emerged as the world's largest arms importer. "Its military doctrine envisages fighting simultaneous land wars against Pakistan and China while retaining dominance in the Indian Ocean", the article said. It summed up the situation as follows: "India spends a fortune on defense and gets poor value for money".

Pakistan Defense Spending. Source: Jane's Defense

After the India-Pakistan aerial combat over Kashmir, New York Times published a story from its South Asia correspondent headlined: "After India Loses Dogfight to Pakistan, Questions Arise About Its Military".  Here are some excerpts of the report:

"Its (India's) loss of a plane last week to a country (Pakistan) whose military is about half the size and receives a quarter (a sixth according to SIPRI) of the funding is telling. ...India’s armed forces are in alarming shape....It was an inauspicious moment for a military the United States is banking on to help keep an expanding China in check".

India-Pakistan Ratios of Tanks and Soldiers

Ineffective Indian Military:

Academics who have studied Indian military have found that it is ineffective by design. In "Army and Nation: The Military and Indian Democracy Since Independence",  the author Steven I. Wilkinson, Nilekani Professor of India and South Asian Studies and Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Yale, has argued that the civil-military constraints that have helped prevent a coup have hurt Indian military effectiveness and preparedness in at least three important ways:

(1) the weakening of the army before the 1962 China war;

(2) the problems caused for defense coordination and preparation by unwieldy defense bureaucracy, duplication of functions among different branches and lack of sharing of information across branches and

(3) the general downgrading of pay and perks since independence which has left the army with huge shortage of officers that affected the force's discipline capabilities.

Summary:

India's international perception as a "great power rising" has suffered a serious setback as a result of its recent military failures against Pakistan which spends only a sixth of India's military budget and ranks 17th in the world, far below India ranking 4th by globalfirepower.com.  "Desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai", acknowledged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his military's recent failures in Balakot and Kashmir. This marked a major shift in Modi's belligerent tone that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch ki chhati" (56 inch chest) and  talk of  "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "boli nahin goli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan in the last few years.  The recent events are forcing India's western backers to reassess their strategy of boosting India as a counterweight to China.

Here's a discussion on the subject:

https://youtu.be/tEWf-6cT0PM


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Here's Indian Prime Minister Modi making excuses for his military's failures:

https://youtu.be/QIt0EAAr3PU

http://www.youtube.com/embed/QIt0EAAr3PU"; width="560"></iframe>" height="315" src="https://img1.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" width="560" style="cursor: move; background-color: #b2b2b2;" />

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

China-Pakistan Defense Production Collaboration Irks West

Balakot and Kashmir: Fact Checkers Expose Indian Lies

Is Pakistan Ready for War with India?

Pakistan-Made Airplanes Lead Nation's Defense Exports

Modi's Blunders and Delusions 

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan?

Project Azm: Pakistan to Develop 5th Generation Fighter Jet

Pakistan Navy Modernization

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Who Won the 1965 War? India or Pakistan?

Pakistani Military's Performance in 1971 War

[Riaz Haq]

The combat statistics for all the aircraft currently in useF22 Raptor, Fighter Flights, Fighter Jets | 101 KommentareWe’ve lately been talking about aircraft which have gone for combat several times. Now we’ve been thinking of some statistics of various fighter aircraft in use. Below you can find the details – but first of all we would like to show you an overview, created by Wojtek Korsak, based on this article. Thanks for that Wojtek. Click enlarge. If it is still to small: Press and hold Ctrl and scroll up with your mouse.
The Format is: 
[Name of aircraft] Air-to-air kills – Air-to-air losses – Losses to ground fire
[Name of conflict aircraft was used in][Nation that used aircraft in said conflict]Air-to-air kills – Air-to-air losses – Losses to ground fire

Aircraft which were destroyed on the ground are not included in this analysis, because any plane can get destroyed on the ground no matter how good it or its pilot is.

F-16 Falcon 76-1-5
Gulf War (USA) 0-0-3
No-Fly Zones (USA) 2-0-0
Bosnia (USA) 4-0-1
Kosovo (USA) 1-0-1
Kosovo (Netherlands) 1-0-0
Kosovo (Portugal, Belgium, Denmark, Turkey) 0-0-0
Afghanistan (USA, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway) 0-0-0
Iraq (USA) 0-0-0
Syrian border clashes 1979-1986 (Israel) 6-0-0
Operation Opera (Israel) 0-0-0
Lebanon War (1982) (Israel) 44-0-0
Lebanon War (2006) (Israel) 3-0-0
Intifada (2000-present) (Israel) 0-0-0
Soviet-Afghan War (Pakistan) 10-0-0
Border clashes (Pakistan) 1-0-0
Kargil War (Pakistan) 0-0-0
Northwest border wars (Pakistan) 0-0-0
Aegean Sea clashes (Turkey) 1-1-0
Venezuelan Coup 1992 (Venezuela) 3-0-0

https://migflug.com/jetflights/the-combat-statistics-for-all-the-ai...

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s PL-15 Missile Equipped JF-17 Block 3 is a Serious Game Changer - How India Can Respond to Regain Superiority


https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/pakistan-s-pl-15-missile-....

Despite considerable investments in modernisation, the balance of power in the air with neighbouring Pakistan may soon deteriorate as the Pakistani Air Force pursues a far cheaper modernisation program for its own fighter fleet centred around two main programs - the JF-17 and Project AZM. The most advanced variants of the JF-17 the JF-17B and JF-17 Block 2 currently have capabilities comparable to lower end Indian fighters. These jets are overall slightly superior to the Mirage 2000, but face a considerable disadvantage if facing the MiG-29 or Rafale - let alone the Su-30MKI which would retain an overwhelming advantage across the spectrum. These JF-17 variants nevertheless represent a considerable upgrade for the Pakistani Air Force from reliance on near obsolete J-7 and Mirage III fighters, and currently form the elite of the fleet alongside American F-16C Fighting Falcons. The JF-17 is the only Pakistani fighter other than the F-16 equipped with active radar guided air to air missiles - namely the PL-12 with a 100km range.

While the JF-17 Block 2 represents is far from a qualitative peer to the majority of the Indian fleet, the upcoming JF-17 Block 3 variant unveiled in December 2019 appears set to be a game changer for Pakistani aerial warfare capabilities. The fighter integrates some limited stealth features, a more powerful engine, a larger AESA radar, the first ever infra red search and track system on a Pakistani fighter, new electronic warfare systems and PL-15 long range air to air missiles. With an estimated range of 200-300km, the PL-15 will outrange all of India’s existing air to air missiles built for use against fighters - from the 80km range MICA used by Rafale and Mirage 2000 jets to the 110km range R-77 used by the MiG-21, MiG-29 and Su-30MKI. With Pakistan potentially fielding over 100 of these new fighters, including both single and twin seat variants, the JF-17 Block 3 could be a serious game changer.

[Riaz Haq]

Christopher Clary
@clary_co
"The IAF... informed the parliamentary panel that the Russia-Ukraine war affected its supplies so much that it slashed its projected capital expenditure... for the financial year ending March 31, 2024, by nearly a 3rd compared to the previous fiscal year."

https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/1638909910179037186?s=20

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NEW DELHI, March 23 (Reuters) - Russia is unable to deliver vital defence supplies it had committed to India's military because of the war in Ukraine, the Indian Air Force (IAF) says.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/russia-cannot-meet-arms-deliver...

New Delhi has been worried that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 could affect military supplies from India's largest source of defence equipment. The IAF statement is the first official confirmation of such shortfalls.

The IAF statement was made to a parliamentiary committee, which published it on its website on Tuesday. An IAF representative told the panel Russia had planned a "major delivery" this year that will not take place.

A spokesperson for the Russian Embassy in New Delhi said: "We don’t have information which may confirm the stated."

There was no immediate response from Rosoboronexport, which is the Russian government's weapons export arm.

The report does not mention specifics of the delivery.

The biggest ongoing delivery is the S-400 Triumf air defence system units India bought in 2018 for $5.4 billion. Three of these systems have been delivered and two more are awaited.

IAF also depends on Russia for spares for its Su-30MKI and MiG-29 fighter jets, the mainstay of the service branch.

Russia, and the Soviet Union before it, has been India’s main source of arms and defence equipment for decades.

Russia accounted for $8.5 billion of the $18.3 billion India has spent on arms imports since 2017, according to the latest data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Over the past two decades, New Delhi has sought to reduce its dependence on Moscow and looked westward towards France, the United States and Israel.

It is also pushing Indian companies to produce more at home in collaboration with global players.

The IAF also informed the parliamentary panel that the Russia-Ukraine war affected its supplies so much that it slashed its projected capital expenditure on modernisation for the financial year ending March 31, 2024, by nearly a third compared to the previous fiscal year.

The air force had projected a capital expenditure of 853 billion rupees ($10.38 billion) for fiscal 2022-23 and cut it to 588 billion rupees ($7.15 billion) in the national budget presented in February.

[Riaz Haq]

‘We Have Narratives but No Proof of Balakot’s Success’: Former High Commissioner to Pakistan

https://thewire.in/diplomacy/watch-we-have-narratives-but-no-proof-...

In an interview to mark the launch of his recently published book Anger Management: The Troubled Diplomatic Relationship between India and Pakistan, which contains a critical chapter on the Pulwama terrorist attack and India’s retaliatory strike on Balakot, India’s High Commissioner to Pakistan at the time, Ajay Bisaria, has accepted that we only have narratives but no proof of the success of the Balakot strike. He added, “You’ll perhaps never know for sure” of how successful the strike was.



In a 35-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Bisaria, while discussing his views, said that the terrorists behind the Pulwama attack of February 2019, the fifth anniversary of which will fall next month, “lucked out in getting an unprotected target in a convoy of vehicles” and thus “met with unexpected success”.



Bisaria was asked if he was echoing what Satya Pal Malik, who was the governor of Jammu and Kashmir at the time, told The Wire in an interview last year, when he claimed the terror attack was a result of “incompetence” and “laparwahi” by the Indian system.



The former envoy was also asked what proof exists to corroborate the statement made by the foreign secretary of the time, which Bisaria quotes in his book. The statement is that at Balakot, “a very large number of JeM terrorists, trainers, senior commanders, and groups of jihadis, who were being trained for fidayeen action, were eliminated.” It was during this part of the discussion that he accepted that we have narratives but not proof of Balakot’s success.

Towards the end of the interview, there is a substantial discussion about Pakistan’s response to Balakot, the shooting down of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varathaman’s MiG-21, and why Pakistan chose to hand him back within a couple of days.



This part of the interview involves a key question about Biswaria’s view that Pakistan “panicked” as well as the facts and developments he cites in his book which suggest that there was a fair amount of panic on the Indian side, too, including a phone call made by then foreign minister Sushma Swaraj to the then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in the middle of the night (when she woke him up) because she was worried that Pakistan was preparing to use nuclear weapons against India.

[Riaz Haq]

Saab Delivers Last Saab 2000 Erieye AEW&C Aircraft to Pakistan - Militarnyi


https://mil.in.ua/en/news/saab-delivers-last-saab-2000-erieye-aew-c...

The Swedish company Saab has handed over the last of the ordered Saab 2000 Erieye airborne early warning and control aircraft to Pakistan.

This is reported by the Turkish SavunmaSanayiST.com.

The last of the ordered Saab 2000 Erieye aircraft was delivered to Pakistan on July 2, 2024, at Minhas Air Base, which is the home base for the fleet of these aircraft.


With this transfer, the Pakistan Air Force now has nine aircraft of this type, which are actively involved in patrolling the border with India.

The last delivered aircraft will be deployed to the 3rd Airborne Early Warning Squadron, which will also help the unit coordinate with combat aircraft stationed at the air base.

The parties signed a contract for the purchase of Saab airborne early warning aircraft in 2006.

Back then, Pakistan ordered six Saab 2000 Erieye aircraft, but due to economic difficulties, the order was reduced to four units.

In 2017 and 2020, the country ordered three aircraft each year. Now the Pakistani Ministry of Defense reports that it wants to place an additional order.

Because of the deterioration of relations with India, the Pakistani government is placing large orders for the purchase of the latest weapons, including modern fighters.

As reported by Militarnyi, Pakistani pilots have begun training on Chinese fifth-generation J-31 fighters.

The new aircraft will potentially enhance the capabilities of Pakistan’s air force and allow the country to cooperate more closely on joint aviation projects.

The J-31 is being developed by the Chinese aircraft manufacturer Shenyang Aircraft Industry Group as a fifth-generation medium multirole fighter.

The aircraft is expected to cost about $70-80 million, which will make it a mass-produced aircraft that can replace the J-10A, J-7, J-10, and J-11B models in the Chinese Air Force.

[Riaz Haq]

From Indian Defense Research Wing (IDRW)


The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is on the brink of introducing the JF-17 Block 4 under the PF-X (Pakistan Fighter Experimental) program, aiming for a debut in 2028. This development prompts a reflection on how India's Tejas MkII could have potentially evolved beyond its current 4.5 generation designation.

JF-17 Block 4 (PFX) Stealth features

Diverterless supersonic inlets (DSIs)

Internal weapons bay (IWB) for 2-4 BVR Air to Air Missiles

https://idrw.org/pakistans-leap-in-fighter-jet-technology-the-adven...

[Riaz Haq]

Jim Sciutto
@jimsciutto
New: A high-ranking French intelligence official told CNN that one Rafale fighter jet operated by the Indian Air Force was downed by Pakistan, in what would mark the first time that one of the sophisticated French-made warplanes has been lost in combat.

Pakistan claimed earlier Wednesday to have shot down five Indian Air Force jets in retaliation for Indian strikes, including three Rafales. Indian officials are yet to respond to the claim.

The French official told CNN that French authorities were looking into whether more than one Rafale jets were shot down by Pakistan overnight.

https://x.com/jimsciutto/status/1920142813498311108

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https://www.eurasiantimes.com/1st-ever-rafale-shootdown-has-india-c...

It is worth noting that earlier, Pakistan had claimed that it had jammed four Indian Rafale fighters flying close to the Line of Control (LoC) on the night of April 29-30, forcing them to retreat and make emergency landings. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif claimed that Pakistan jammed Indian Rafale fighters using Chengdu J-10C fighters.

----------------
French Intelligence Official Confirms Indian Rafale Jet Fighter Loss in Combat with Pakistan

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-attack-kashmir-t...


A high-ranking French intelligence official told CNN today that one Rafale fighter jet operated by the Indian Air Force was downed by Pakistan, in what would mark the first time that one of the sophisticated French-made warplanes has been lost in combat.

---------------

Did Pakistan really shoot down five Indian fighter jets?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/05/07/did-pakistan-real...

In the early hours after the attack, images of previous Indian fighter jet crashes were circulated on Pakistani social media as “proof” of a successful counter-strike. One, from a 2021 crash, showed the smoking tail of a MiG-29 jet.

But reports of jet crashes were soon corroborated from the ground. Local government sources told Reuters that three Indian jets had indeed crashed inside Indian-controlled Kashmir.

The reports mirrored a story in The Hindu, but that was swifty deleted by the newspaper under apparent pressure from the Indian government.

“There is no such on-record official confirmation from India,” the Hindu said as it apologised for what it called an error. “We regret that it created confusion among our readers.”

Residents ‘saw wreckage footage’
Early on Wednesday morning, Dar Yasin, a photojournalist with the Associated Press, raced to the outskirts of Srinagar, the main city in Indian-controlled Kashmir.



He managed to slip past Indian authorities to take pictures of what appears to be the mangled wreckage of a downed fighter jet.

“Locals told me they saw a huge ball of fire emerging from the accident site and the wreckage was burning for…hours,” Mr Yasin told AP from the scene. Several locals also took and shared video of the wreckage on social media, before being ushered away from the scene.

Images of a burned aircraft engine appear to be of the M88 engine typically used in Rafale jets, said Andreas Rupprecht, an expert in Chinese military aviation.

Some 370 miles further south, villagers in Akhali Kurd in the province of Punjab were jolted awake early in the morning by a loud explosion. Scrambling out of bed, they also found the wreckage of an aircraft, The Indian Express reported.

[Riaz Haq]

A dogfight between Chinese-made Pakistani jets and French-made Indian Rafale fighters will be closely scrutinized by militaries seeking insights that could offe…

Source: Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/global-militaries-study-india-p...

Pakistani jets shoot down Indian aircraft, US officials say
Fight pits Chinese jets, missiles against European weapons
Global militaries analyzing tactics, kit for future conflicts
Analysts caution that details are still to emerge
May 8 (Reuters) - A dogfight between Chinese-made Pakistani jets and French-made Indian Rafale fighters will be closely scrutinized by militaries seeking insights that could offer an edge in future conflicts.
A Chinese-made Pakistani fighter plane shot down at least two Indian military aircraft on Wednesday, two U.S. officials told Reuters, marking a potential major milestone for Beijing's advanced fighter jet.
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The aerial clash is a rare opportunity for militaries to study the performance of pilots, fighter jets and air-to-air missiles in active combat, and use that knowledge to prepare their own air forces for battle.

Experts said the live use of advanced weapons would be analyzed across the world, including in China and the United States which are both preparing for a potential conflict over Taiwan or in the wider Indo-Pacific region.
One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters there was high confidence that Pakistan had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets.

Social media posts focused on the performance of China's PL-15 air-to-air missile against the Meteor, a radar-guided air-to-air missile produced by European group MBDA (AIR.PA), opens new tab, (BAES.L), opens new tab, (LDOF.MI), opens new tab. There has been no official confirmation these weapons were used.
"Air warfare communities in China, the U.S. and a number of European countries will be extremely interested to try and get as much ground truth as they can on tactics, techniques, procedures, what kit was used, what worked and what didn't," said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"You have arguably China's most capable weapon against the West's most capable weapon, if indeed it was being carried; we don't know that," Barrie said.
The French and Americans would likely be hoping for similar intelligence from India, Barrie said.
"The PL-15 is a big problem. It is something that the U.S. military pays a lot of attention to," a defense industry executive said.
Rafale manufacturer Dassault Aviation (AM.PA), opens new tabdeclined comment and the MBDA consortium (AIR.PA), opens new tab, (BAES.L), opens new tab, (LDOF.MI), opens new tab could not immediately be reached for comment on a French public holiday.

SCANT DETAILS
Western analysts and industry sources said crucial details remained unclear including whether the Meteor was carried and the type and amount of training the pilots had received. Arms firms would also be anxious to separate technical performance from operational factors, analysts said.
"There will be audits of what works and what doesn't work, but I think the other overlay is the proverbial fog of war," said Byron Callan, a Washington-based defense expert and managing partner of Capital Alpha Partners.

U.S. arms companies are getting constant feedback about how their products are working in the war in Ukraine, he said.
"So I absolutely expect the same to be the case with India's European suppliers, and Pakistan and China are probably sharing the same feedback. If the PL-15 is working as advertised or better than expected, the Chinese would like to hear that."