Pakistan Downs India's French Rafale Fighter Jets in History's Largest Aerial Battle

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) pilots flying Chinese-made J10C fighter jets shot down at least two Indian Air Force's French-made Rafale jets in history's largest ever aerial battle involving over 100 combat aircraft on both sides, according to multiple media reports. India had 72 warplanes on the attack and Pakistan responded with 42 of its own, according to Pakistani military. The Indian government has not yet acknowledged its losses but senior French and US intelligence officials have confirmed that at least one Indian Rafale jet was shot down by Pakistan on May 7, 2025. Reports of  more Rafale downings are being investigated by western intelligence officials. This marks the first time that the sophisticated French-made warplane has been lost in combat.

Rafale is the most advanced French 4.5 generation fighter plane. Indian Prime Minister Narendra spoke about India's need for Rafale back in 2019 after the last IAF-PAF dogfight and said: "We (Indians) acutely felt the absence of Rafale today.....if we had Rafale today the results would have been very different....desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai"  Then Mr. Modi proceeded to spend $7.4 billion to purchase 26 Rafale fighter jets from France in the hope of achieving air superiority over Pakistan.  Each Rafale cost Indian taxpayers $288 million. 

Military aviation analysts conclude from the results of the air battle that the Chinese technology is as good, if not better than, the western technology. However, men count as much, if not more than, the machines.  The legendary US Air Force pilot Chuck Yeager called Pakistan Air Force pilots "the best in the world".  In another tweet in 2015, Yeager said "they (PAF pilots) kicked the Indians butt". 

In the 1980s, the Pakistan Air Force pilots went head-to-head with Russian combat pilots in Afghanistan. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has the distinction of being the only air force that has engaged and shot down multiple Russian fighter pilots in combat since WWII.  The most prominent among those shot down by PAF was Colonel Alexander Rutskoy who ejected over Pakistani soil and was captured by Pakistan. After his release, Rutskoy was decorated as a hero of the Soviet Union and went onto become vice president of Russia under Boris Yeltsin, before leading an attempted coup in 1993, according to The National Interest publication. 

The aerial battle between Pakistani and Indian fighter jets, which Pakistani officials claim downed five Indian planes, was one of the “largest and longest in recent aviation history,” a senior Pakistani security source told CNN.  Over 100 combat planes battled for over an hour, with neither side leaving its own airspace, according to the CNN source who detailed that the missile exchanges were happening at distances sometimes greater than 160 kilometers (100 miles).  The entire air battle was conducted using BVR (beyond visual range) radars/sensors with stand-off weapons. 

Global militaries and defense analysts are now studying the India-Pakistan aerial battle on May 7, 2025, according to Reuters. Here's an excerpt of the Reuters' report: 

"Experts said the live use of advanced weapons would be analyzed across the world, including in China and the United States which are both preparing for a potential conflict over Taiwan or in the wider Indo-Pacific region. One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters there was high confidence that Pakistan had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets". 

Here's Prime Minister Modi Speaking of India's Acute Need For Rafale in 2016:

https://youtu.be/QIt0EAAr3PU?si=KpcJW60jvD9r0xeQ

http://www.youtube.com/embed/QIt0EAAr3PU?si=KpcJW60jvD9r0xeQ"; title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>" height="315" src="https://img1.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" width="560" style="cursor: move; background-color: #b2b2b2;" /> 

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[Riaz Haq]

Thomas Keith
@iwasnevrhere_
The war didn’t end. It went dormant, quieted, not concluded. The spectrum remains live. What unfolded was not a border skirmish, but a battlefield simulation, proof that the wars of the past are dead and the wars of the future are already underway. Pakistan did not simply repel aggression. It revealed a doctrine, one rooted not in brute strength, but in signal control, electromagnetic denial, and narrative preemption. This was not a victory of jets over jets, but of latency over presence. What comes next depends on whether Pakistan completes the grid it has begun to shape, a sovereign kill web built not for escalation, but for insulation from escalation. A doctrine that doesn’t respond to attack, but erases the possibility of one ever forming.

To build this, Pakistan must stop thinking in inventory and start thinking in architecture. The first node in this architecture is a platform that doesn’t currently exist in its arsenal: a dedicated airborne electronic attack aircraft. The J-16D, China’s Growler analogue, is not a fighter, it’s an electromagnetic disruption vector. With internal jamming suites, SEAD payloads, and active radar denial pods, it is designed not to engage targets, but to delete them from the engagement sequence altogether. Without such a platform, Pakistan is forced to blind India from the ground up. With it, the grid is severed mid-air. Radar sites go dark. Targeting pods lose lock. S-400 fire control nodes dissolve before they process threat vectors. Air superiority becomes spectrum denial.

But seeing first is even more important than firing first. And in the spectral domain, the ability to see without being seen is absolute power. That is the logic of passive radar, systems like the YLC-29 or Vera-NG that detect aircraft by monitoring their own emissions, without ever transmitting a signal. These systems do not participate in war. They haunt it. Stealth fighters, jamming drones, loitering munitions, all become visible the moment they speak. Passive radar turns India’s own equipment into a liability. It completes the surveillance loop without becoming part of it. Positioned across Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan, these passive nodes would allow Pakistan to build a network of silent vision, watching without blinking, tracking without betraying location, and seeing every platform India launches the moment it breathes.

Strategic deterrence doesn’t only come from ISR and electronic denial. It comes from forcing the enemy to think twice. Pakistan must now consider the one platform that renders naval aggression obsolete before it manifests: a hypersonic area-denial missile. A DF-17-style glide vehicle with Mach 5+ terminal velocity doesn’t need to be used. It only needs to be known. The mere presence of such a system, deployed from coastal nodes near Gwadar, Pasni, or even inland from hardened launchers, would force Indian carrier groups to remain hundreds of kilometers away. It shifts strategic calculations. It delays deployments. It creates psychological terrain. Hypersonics are not about escalation. They are about hesitation.

But wars will not be fought by capital ships alone. They will arrive in clouds: drone swarms, loitering munitions, reconnaissance UAVs, soft-kill saturation assets. India is already investing in this volume. Pakistan must answer with intelligence, AI-synchronized swarms that deceive, distract, and degrade. Domestic CH-901-style loitering munitions, or co-developed Turkish KARGU variants, must be built for not just precision strike but system exhaustion. Their job is to drain enemy attention, burn through interceptors, jam channels, and spoof early warning systems. These are not drones. They are narrative distortion fields in flight. They do not win wars with explosions. They win them by being everywhere, until nothing is trusted.

https://x.com/iwasnevrhere_/status/1921994075013841129

[Riaz Haq]

Google Search Results “Does Pakistan have access to Chinese high res satellite imagery?”

Yes, Pakistan has access to Chinese high-resolution satellite imagery. One report indicated that Pakistan purchased real-time satellite data from China, including high-definition video, optical, and hyperspectral imagery. This data reportedly includes precise positioning of Indian Army camps across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. Additionally, Pakistan has entered into agreements with China to procure satellite data, like the Jilin-1 satellite data. Another report mentioned that China is actively promoting the use of its BeiDou navigation satellite system, including among foreign militaries, and has signed agreements with countries like Pakistan to encourage their adoption. A 2018 report also mentioned that China launched two remote sensing satellites for Pakistan, potentially to monitor the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and that another space cooperation agreement was signed in 2021 to supply satellite images

[Riaz Haq]

India confirms Chinese missiles used by Pakistan in strikes

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/05/13/india-says-chines...

India has confirmed Pakistan used Chinese-made missiles during the recent cross-border military strikes.

Air Marshal AK Bharti, India’s director general air operations, said Indian forces had intercepted and neutralised a range of hi-tech foreign weapons used by Pakistan, including the Chinese-origin PL-15 long-range air-to-air missile and Turkish Byker YIHA III Kamikaze drones.

“You can see the pieces of it on the screen,” AM Bharti said during a media briefing, pointing to the debris of a PL-15 missile recovered from a field in Hoshiarpur, Punjab, bordering Pakistan in northern India.



Pakistan claims it shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three French-made Rafales.

A French intelligence source told CNN that a Rafale jet had indeed been downed during exchanges of fire.

Delhi sidestepped a question on whether it had lost jets, saying instead that all its pilots were safe.

The PL-15, developed by China’s Aviation Industry Corporation, is designed to strike high-value airborne targets at ranges exceeding 200km.

In public, Beijing has so far struck a diplomatic tone on the crisis between two South Asian neighbours that were brought back from an all-out-war through back-channel talks.

But in private, a Chinese delegation travelled to the Pakistani foreign ministry in the middle of the night to celebrate the success of the missile strikes.

India’s decision to name China in the recent crisis signals growing alarm in New Delhi over deepening military cooperation between the arch rivals.

The Pakistani and Chinese militaries are hosting joint exercises and sharing common weapon platforms.

The Chinese are also sharing their intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities with Pakistan.

Officers are embedded in the military commands of each other’s nations, such as Pakistani officers placed in China’s Central Military Commission and Western Theatre Command at Chengdu, which oversees the operational frontier with India.

The PL-15 missile, which has never before been used in combat, is powered by a dual-pulse motor that propels it to hypersonic speeds exceeding Mach 5.

“Because they are very, very fast, they basically have what you call a ‘no-escape zone’,” said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile technology researcher and fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis.

The confirmation comes just days after Pakistan’s army published a YouTube video showcasing its military arsenal, including a Chinese-made JF-17 Block 3 fighter jet, less advanced than the J-10C, equipped with PL-15 missiles. The combination offers “potent punch”, a caption reads.

Analysts believe one of these missiles may have been used to shoot down a Rafale fighter deep inside Indian territory in a long-range “stand-off” engagement in which neither side crossed the

The wreckage of a Rafale was reportedly found near Bathinda in Punjab in northern India.

The apparent involvement of Chinese aircraft in shooting down a Rafale has ricocheted through defence circles – and sent stock in its maker, Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, surging by as much as 20 per cent.

Until now, Chinese weaponry had not been field-tested against Western-made systems like the Rafale.

The Indian Air Force operates a fleet of 36 Rafale F3Rs, the most advanced model of the aircraft.

Hu Jixin, the former editor of the Chinese state-owned Global Times, said the battle showed “China’s level of military manufacturing has completely surpassed that of Russia and France”, adding that Taiwan should feel “even more scared”.

[Riaz Haq]

Chinese weapons gain credibility after Pakistan-India conflict. source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/success-of-chine...

The shares of China's jet maker, Aviation Industry Corporation of China, soared by more than a fourth after its J-10C, deployed by Pakistan, purportedly shot down five Indian fighters last week, including French-made Rafale aircraft, last week in response to Indian military strikes.

(May 13): The recent conflict between India and Pakistan is prompting a reassessment of Chinese weapons, challenging long-held perceptions of their inferiority to Western arms and sparking concern in places wary of Beijing.

Pakistan hailed the use of its Chinese J-10Cs to shoot down five Indian fighters, including French-made Rafale aircraft, last week in response to Indian military strikes. Although the reports haven’t been confirmed, and India hasn’t commented, the jet’s maker saw its market capitalisation soar by over 55 billion yuan (RM32.71 billion), or more than a fourth, by the end of last week.

Hu Xijin, the ex-editor-in-chief of China’s nationalist tabloid Global Times, warned on social media that if Pakistan’s successful strikes were true, Taiwan should feel “even more scared”. Beijing sees the self-ruled democracy as its own, and reserves the right to use military force to bring it under control.

Taiwan closely watched the clash between Pakistan and India, according to Shu Hsiao-Huang, an associate research fellow at the Institute of National Defence and Security Research, a government-funded military think tank based in Taipei.

“We may need to reassess the PLA’s [People’s Liberation Army] air combat capabilities, which may be approaching — or even surpassing — the level of US air power deployments in East Asia,” Shu said, adding Washington might want to consider selling more advanced systems to Taiwan.

While President Xi Jinping has been trying to modernise the world’s biggest military by the number of active personnel, the People’s Liberation Army has been mired in scandals. That had raised questions about the combat-readiness of its powerful and secretive Rocket Force, which is responsible for conventional missiles and would play a crucial role in any invasion of Taiwan.

The reported success of J-10Cs, which have had few battle tests and are used to patrol the Taiwan Strait, appears to counter those doubts. It’s still uncertain, however, how they would fare against US fighters such as the F-16, which make up the bulk of Taiwan’s jets and have been combat-proven across decades and militaries.

Another Chinese weapon Pakistan uses will also be coming under intense scrutiny by Beijing’s adversaries. Parts of Chinese air-to-air PL-15 missiles found in India after the reported shoot-downs suggest the weapons, deployed on Pakistan’s J-10C aircraft, proved effective in their first known combat use. With a top speed above Mach 5, the PL-15 is a rival to Western air-to-air missiles.

China is the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter but its customers are mostly developing nations like Pakistan that have limited funds. The latest developments could bolster Beijing’s sales pitch as major economies from Europe to Asia heed President Donald Trump’s call to ramp up defence spending.

“There is a good chance the weapons systems China is able to offer will be even more appealing to potential buyers” especially in the Global South, said James Char, assistant professor of the China Program at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noting the J-10C is not even China’s most advanced jet.

Buying weapons has also become a focus for developing nations, mulling US arms purchases to appease Trump and his demands to reduce American trade imbalances. Several of these countries list China as a top trading partner and could consider hedging bets by acquiring systems from the Asian country, too.

[Riaz Haq]

Chinese weapons gain credibility after Pakistan-India conflict. source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/success-of-chine...

The shares of China's jet maker, Aviation Industry Corporation of China, soared by more than a fourth after its J-10C, deployed by Pakistan, purportedly shot down five Indian fighters last week, including French-made Rafale aircraft, last week in response to Indian military strikes.

(May 13): The recent conflict between India and Pakistan is prompting a reassessment of Chinese weapons, challenging long-held perceptions of their inferiority to Western arms and sparking concern in places wary of Beijing.

Pakistan hailed the use of its Chinese J-10Cs to shoot down five Indian fighters, including French-made Rafale aircraft, last week in response to Indian military strikes. Although the reports haven’t been confirmed, and India hasn’t commented, the jet’s maker saw its market capitalisation soar by over 55 billion yuan (RM32.71 billion), or more than a fourth, by the end of last week.

Hu Xijin, the ex-editor-in-chief of China’s nationalist tabloid Global Times, warned on social media that if Pakistan’s successful strikes were true, Taiwan should feel “even more scared”. Beijing sees the self-ruled democracy as its own, and reserves the right to use military force to bring it under control.

Taiwan closely watched the clash between Pakistan and India, according to Shu Hsiao-Huang, an associate research fellow at the Institute of National Defence and Security Research, a government-funded military think tank based in Taipei.

“We may need to reassess the PLA’s [People’s Liberation Army] air combat capabilities, which may be approaching — or even surpassing — the level of US air power deployments in East Asia,” Shu said, adding Washington might want to consider selling more advanced systems to Taiwan.

While President Xi Jinping has been trying to modernise the world’s biggest military by the number of active personnel, the People’s Liberation Army has been mired in scandals. That had raised questions about the combat-readiness of its powerful and secretive Rocket Force, which is responsible for conventional missiles and would play a crucial role in any invasion of Taiwan.

The reported success of J-10Cs, which have had few battle tests and are used to patrol the Taiwan Strait, appears to counter those doubts. It’s still uncertain, however, how they would fare against US fighters such as the F-16, which make up the bulk of Taiwan’s jets and have been combat-proven across decades and militaries.

Another Chinese weapon Pakistan uses will also be coming under intense scrutiny by Beijing’s adversaries. Parts of Chinese air-to-air PL-15 missiles found in India after the reported shoot-downs suggest the weapons, deployed on Pakistan’s J-10C aircraft, proved effective in their first known combat use. With a top speed above Mach 5, the PL-15 is a rival to Western air-to-air missiles.

China is the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter but its customers are mostly developing nations like Pakistan that have limited funds. The latest developments could bolster Beijing’s sales pitch as major economies from Europe to Asia heed President Donald Trump’s call to ramp up defence spending.

“There is a good chance the weapons systems China is able to offer will be even more appealing to potential buyers” especially in the Global South, said James Char, assistant professor of the China Program at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noting the J-10C is not even China’s most advanced jet.

Buying weapons has also become a focus for developing nations, mulling US arms purchases to appease Trump and his demands to reduce American trade imbalances. Several of these countries list China as a top trading partner and could consider hedging bets by acquiring systems from the Asian country, too.

[Riaz Haq]

Chinese weapons gain credibility after Pakistan-India conflict. source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/success-of-chine...

China’s overseas arms sales have been growing, with its five-year average weapons exports more than tripling in 2020-2024 from 2000-2004, according to calculations based on data from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Chinese government and state-owned enterprises do not disclose data on arms exports.

Some of the largest state-owned players — also blacklisted by the US — include Norinco Group, which makes armoured vehicles and anti-missiles systems; Aviation Industry Corporation of China, whose subsidiary AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co manufactured the J-10Cs; as well as China State Shipbuilding Corp, a producer of frigates and submarines.

M Taylor Fravel, director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, cautioned that the Chinese jet was primarily for aerial combat, while the Rafale was designed to conduct many kinds of missions, meaning the J-10 may have held an advantage.

Chinese weapons exports have been plagued for years by defects, specialists have said, adding that the seemingly inexpensive systems can drain security budgets due to maintenance expenses.

“China attracts customers for its military equipment with cut-rate pricing and financing but there are hidden costs — especially when gear malfunctions,” Cindy Zheng, then a researcher at Rand Corp, wrote in a research paper just before joining the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission in the latter stages of the Biden administration.

In 2022, Myanmar had to reportedly ground its fleet of Chinese fighter jets due to structural cracks and other technical issues. Bangladesh lodged complaints with Beijing about the quality of its military hardware last year. Even the Pakistan Navy has been facing issues with its F-22P frigates, forcing them to operate the vessels with significantly degraded capabilities.

“Questions about combat capabilities and other issues, including concerns about interoperability with non-Chinese platforms, have hampered China’s ability to expand exports beyond a handful of countries,” Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior associate analyst Eric Zhu wrote in a note last week.

China’s Defence Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment on the past weapon defects and the J-10C’s recent performance. Beijing regularly says that its military helps maintain global stability and that it prefers to resolve the Taiwan issue peacefully.

Xi has been trying to turn China’s defence industry around by bringing together the military and civilian sectors, in an effort to transform the PLA into a modern force by 2027.

That’s led to breakthroughs such as China’s launch in December of its first next-generation amphibious assault ships, considered the world’s largest of its kind. A video of what is believed to be a test flight of the nations’ sixth-generation fighter jet circulated on social media that year, leading to a rally in defence stocks.

But it’s wrong to call the J-10C’s potential success a “DeepSeek moment” for China’s military, said Fravel, referring to the artificial intelligence chat bot that surprised the world earlier this year, noting that the jet’s design wasn’t new.

“But it doesn’t need to be a DeepSeek moment to be significant,” he added. “A lot is being learned about how Chinese systems perform under combat conditions.”

[Riaz Haq]

Tejasswi Prakash
@Tiju0Prakash
First Bihar reported the death of an Indian soldier operating the S-400 Air Defence System in J&K, confirming a successful PAF strike on udampur Airbase on 10th May.

Another Modi Ji’s lie exposed. Instead of doing PR at the airbase, he should have visited the home of the martyred soldier. But Modi Ji, you're too much ignoring our own Shaheeds for your image.

The report is likely taken down under BJP pressure, but the nation still demands answers.

https://x.com/Tiju0Prakash/status/1922367646768431544

-----------------

Did Modi inadvertently confirm Pakistan’s S-400 claim?
Indian PM’s Adampur photo-op aimed to counter PAF claim but what’s missing raises more questions than answers

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2545624/did-modi-inadvertently-confirm...

India’s Prime Minister Modi posed in front of an S-400 missile launcher during a visit to the Adampur airbase on Tuesday, a move Indian media framed as a “fact-check” of Pakistan’s claim that it had neutralised two of the advanced systems during Operation Bunyanum Marsoos.

But the photo-op may have inadvertently lent weight to Pakistan’s assertion — precisely because of what was missing in the image.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), US-based South Asia expert Christopher Clary noted that while there is still no concrete evidence of Pakistani success against the S-400, Pakistan would be “at least as likely if not more likely to target the command centre or the radar than they are the launcher” of the air defence system.

https://x.com/clary_co/status/1922209113334755834

At the May 11 tri-service news briefing, Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmad revealed that the Pakistan Air Force had been tracking the S-400 air defence system via satellite imagery “well before the hostilities.” Explaining that attacking the S-400 system was the “easier part” as compared to “identifying it on the ground”, he presented satellite images that showed the PAF had “pinpointed” the system’s “cheeseboard radar.”

Shortly after The Express Tribune published its story online, NDTV’s Shiv Aroor — who has frequently shared claims from Indian defence sources — posted a photo on X showing him with an S-400 radar unit housed inside a structure.


https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/1922254177868066942

However, Aroor shared the same photograph on July 11, 2019 with the post: “With a brand new S-400 Triumf launcher vehicle for the Russian military at the Almaz-Antey facility near St. Petersburg — this is the same facility that will produce 5 systems for India starting next year. Spent the day here today. Detailed report on @Livefist tomorrow.”

https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/1149303243803168769

The S-400 Triumph, known by NATO as the SA-21 Growler, is a long-range, surface-to-air missile system developed by Russia’s Almaz-Antey.

According to a TRT World Research Centre explainer, the system is designed to detect and destroy aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. A 2021 research paper titled “India’s Acquisition of the S-400 Air Defence System”, published in the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, states that each S-400 system includes two batteries.

Each battery comprises a command-and-control unit, one surveillance radar, one engagement radar, and four launch trucks referred to as “transporter–erector–launchers.”

According to TRT World, a full battalion consists of eight launchers, each capable of carrying four missiles. The S-400 has a range of 250 to 400 kilometres, depending on the missile type, and can target objects at altitudes of up to 30 kilometres.

The system primarily uses the 48N6 missile series, which can intercept aerial targets up to 250 kilometres away and ballistic missiles within a 60-kilometer radius.

These missiles are equipped with 143 kg high-explosive warheads. The S-400 is also compatible with the 40N6 missile, a long-range air defence missile with a 400-kilometer reach.

[Riaz Haq]

Husain Haqqani
@husainhaqqani
‘Swarm & Strike: How Pakistan’s Drone Superiority ‘Tested’ Indian Defenses & Questioned India’s Very Capable Air Defence Systems.’ Vijainder K. Thakur explains in Eurasian Times how Pakistan may have used Ukraine-like tactics

https://x.com/husainhaqqani/status/1922225449565880686

----------------

Swarm & Strike: How Pakistan’s Drones ‘Tested’ Indian Defenses & Questioned India’s Very Capable AD Systems: OPED

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/swarm-strike-how-pakistans-drone-supe...

The twin operations—India’s Op Sindoor and Pakistan’s response, Bunyaan al-Marsoos—have underlined how modern warfare has pivoted decisively toward drone-centric operations. These include the full spectrum: surveillance, ELINT, communication relay, kamikaze, and armed attack drones.

Painfully, as has happened on numerous occasions in the past, Pakistani forces have again stolen a march over Indian counterparts—this time by inducting a broader spectrum of drones and developing tactics for their optimal utilization.

The massive drone swarm on the night of May 9, 2025, is illustrative.

According to the GoI’s official press briefing, Pakistan launched between 400 and 500 drones in a coordinated reconnaissance and SIGINT operation. These intrusions, some deep into Indian territory, were designed to trigger Indian air defense systems into activating radars and launching interceptors. This allowed Pakistani planners to map Indian AD assets and gather critical electromagnetic data.

Circumstantial evidence suggests that Pakistan used this intelligence on the night of May 10 to jam Indian AD systems and launch cruise missile strikes—possibly targeting even S–400–protected airbases.

---------
Ceasefire Violations
Pakistan’s drone incursions occurred just hours after a ceasefire, negotiated by both countries, came into effect at 5 PM on May 10.

The timing raises serious questions. The drones were likely launched to confirm the destruction of Indian targets for domestic propaganda purposes.

These intrusions may not be isolated events but the beginning of a phase where Pakistani drone-based airspace violations become routine.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Isn’t That Risky Anymore. Its Economy Is a Mini-Miracle. - Barron's

https://www.barrons.com/articles/pakistan-economy-turnaround-257d44e3

For markets like Pakistan, it can take a threat of war to capture the world’s attention. Investors may regret not having looked sooner.

The country of 255 million has pulled off a macroeconomic miracle of sorts over the past two years. Inflation has nosedived from near 40% annually to near zero. Eurobonds maturing in 2031 have soared from 40 cents on the dollar to 80 cents. The Karachi Stock Exchange index has tripled. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government reached a $7 billion stabilization agreement with the International Monetary Fund last September. More than $2 billion has already been disbursed.

“Pakistan is a good story,” says Genna Lozovsky, chief investment officer at Sandglass Capital Management, which buys distressed emerging markets debt. “So good it’s not risky enough for us anymore.”

The latest armed conflict with India, in a tenuous state of truce at press time, won’t likely knock Pakistan’s recovery off course. The country’s own shaky underpinnings might. The latest IMF bailout is its 24 th since joining the Fund in 1950. “Pakistan has been known for boom-and-bust cycles throughout its history,” notes Khaled Sellami, an emerging markets sovereign debt manager at Barings.

He sees some signs that this time could be different. Pakistan’s current bout of stabilization started with a near-default experience in 2022-23. Catastrophic flooding and a spike in oil prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine coincided with domestic political turmoil, as Sharif engineered a no-confidence motion against his predecessor Imran Khan, who was subsequently locked up on corruption charges.

“Everyone thought Pakistan would default along with Sri Lanka in 2023,” says Alison Graham, chief investment officer at frontier markets specialist Voltan Capital Management.

Instead, the State Bank of Pakistan hiked interest rates from 10% to 22%, pitching the country into recession but wringing out inflation. Sharif won a (disputed) election in February 2024, and improved Khan’s rocky relations with Islamabad’s meddlesome military, hopefully securing political stability until the next required poll in 2029.

Pakistan’s sovereign creditors—China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—rolled over their loans without extending new credit. Gross domestic product growth bounced back to 2.5% last year, and the country’s books are uncustomarily balanced. “The current account balance is positive, and they have a primary fiscal surplus [excluding interest payments],” Sellami observes. “That’s something we haven’t seen in many years.”

Stabilization is one thing, though, development another. Pakistan’s IMF program, like all IMF programs, calls for reforms that will be unpopular with powerful interests or the population at large. Islamabad is supposed to increase its tax take by half and slash electricity subsidies, among other uphill battles.

India’s leap forward in advanced industries like IT and pharmaceuticals points up its neighbor’s relative stagnation. Cotton, apparel and cereals account for two-thirds of Pakistan’s exports. It is belatedly moving into IT outsourcing, foreign sales rising from near nothing to $3 billion annually over the past few years, Sellami says. India is in the $200 billion range.

Without a value-added ladder to climb, fate and free-spending election cycles may continue driving Pakistan’s boom and bust, Graham thinks. “Pakistan remains extremely fragile to external shocks,” she says. “When there is a rally, you need to be in early.”

Sellami is more optimistic, remaining “constructive” on Pakistani Eurobonds.