Ukraine War: Time For India To Rethink its Military Doctrine Modeled On Russia's?

[Riaz Haq]

India's Russian-equipped and trained military is watching with great concern Russia's losses in the Ukraine war. Moscow has lost 20,000 soldiers, nearly 500 main battle tanks and a large warship so far, according to media reports. Ukraine's use of Turkish drones, US-made anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) Javelins and Ukrainian anti-ship Neptune missiles has taken a heavy toll on the Russian Army and Navy. It is notable that India's Cold Start Doctrine against Pakistan is modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG).   

Russian Influence On Indian Military Doctrine. Source: Air Universi...

Russian Influence on Indian Military Doctrine:

It is well known that the Indian Army relies on Russian tanks, artillery, rockets, and ammunition. The Indian Navy uses Russian ships, submarines and missiles and the Russian Su-30 MKI forms the backbone of the Indian Air Force. Like Russia, the Indian military doctrine is based on deploying large platforms (tanks, artillery, ships and fighter-bombers) with massive firepower.  Here's an excerpt of an article by Dr. Vipin Narang, an Indian-American analyst, on the subject: 

"In terms of doctrine and strategy, although it may be difficult to trace direct influence and lineage between Russia and India, there are several pieces in India’s conventional and nuclear strategy that at least mirror Russia’s behavior. On the conventional side, the core formation in the quick-strike concept known as “Cold Start” or “proactive strategy options” was modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG). The idea was to have a formation that could be rapidly assembled from tank and armored divisions that could break through reinforced defenses—NATO for Russia, and Pakistan’s I and II Corps in the plains and desert sectors for India.

"On the nuclear side, India is currently seized with the same dilemma as the Soviet Union was during the Cold War: both NATO and Pakistan threaten battlefield nuclear weapons against conventional thrusts (India, at least, presumably would be retaliating following a Pakistan-backed provocation). While both states refined their conventional concept of operations, there may have also been corresponding adjustments to their nuclear strategies. It was long believed that, in response to NATO threats to use nuclear weapons first on the battlefield, the Soviet Union had strong preemptive counterforce elements in its strategy to try to at least disarm the United States of its strategic nuclear weapons for damage limitation. It is increasingly evident that at least some serious Indian officials are interested in developing the same sort of option: preemptive counterforce against Pakistan’s strategic nuclear forces, both for damage limitation and to reopen India’s conventional superiority. It is no surprise perhaps, then, that India chose to go ahead with acquiring Russia’s S-400 missile and air defense system, despite the threat of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions from the United States: the S-400 is key to India’s damage limitation strategy, capable of potentially intercepting residual ballistic and cruise missiles that a counterforce strike might miss". 

Pakistani Military Official in Ukraine. Source: New York Times

Turkish Drones: 

Turkish Bayraktar TB2 has been highly effective in destroying Russian tanks and armor in Ukraine. It is playing a key role in Ukraine's counter offensives against Russia's invasion. It is proving so effective that "Ukrainian forces are singing its praises, literally", according to a CNN report. 

Indian Army has nearly 6,000 tanks of Russian origin. These tanks are just as vulnerable to drone and anti-tank missiles as the Russian tanks that perished in Ukraine. 

Pakistan has developed Baktar Shikan, a second-generation man-portable anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system which uses optical aiming, IR tracking, remotely controlled and wire transmitted guidance signals. It can also be mounted on attack helicopters and Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs). Its long range, penetration power and a powerful anti-jamming capability form a potent defense against armored targets.

Pakistan is also reported to have already acquired Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones recently. It was displayed in the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23, 2022, along with other military equipment acquired recently by the Pakistani defense forces. 

Anti-Ship Missiles:

Ukraine claims that its Neptune anti-ship missiles hit and sank Moskva in Black Sea.  It was a large 10,000-ton guided missile cruiser of the Russian Navy that was launching cruise missiles on targets in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. It is the largest warship to have been sunk in action since WWII. 

Vast majority of Indian Navy ships, including its aircraft carriers and missile frigates, are designed, built and equipped by Russians.  

Pakistan recently showcased its anti-ship missile Harbah at DIMDEX 2022, a defense expo in Qatar. It  is a medium range ship launched subsonic cruise missile system capable of targeting sea as well as land targets in “all weather operation” at a maximum range of 280 kilometers, according to a report in NavalNews. The missile is fire and forget type. It relies on inertial navigation technologies with GPS and GLONASS systems. According to its manufacturer GIDS, the missile features the following guidance systems: a DSMAC camera, imaging infrared seeker, and radar seeker.

Summary:

The war in Ukraine is forcing a defense strategy rethink in countries such as India which rely on Russian equipment and training. Hindustan Times has quoted an unnamed former Indian Army Chief as saying:  “War videos available show that the Russian Army has tactical issues in Ukraine war. Tell me, which tank formation goes to war in a single file without air or infantry cover when the opponent is equipped with the best anti-tank guided missile like Javelin or Turkish Bayraktar TB2 missile firing drones? There is question on Russian air supremacy with Ukraine Army armed with shoulder fired Stinger surface to air missiles as well as the night fighting capability of the Russian Air Force.”

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan-China Defense Industry Collaboration Irks West

Pakistan's Cyber Attack and Defense Capability

Is India a Paper Elephant?

Pakistan's Aircraft Exports

Pakistan Navy Modernization

West's Technological Edge in Geopolitical Competition

Pakistan Defense Industry

Silicon Valley Book Launch of "Eating Grass"

Ukraine's Lesson For Pakistan: Never Give Up Nukes!

Pakistan Economy Nears Trillion Dollars

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Riaz Haq Youtube Channel

VPOS Youtube Channel

[Riaz Haq]

https://quwa.org/quwa-premium/new-air-launched-munitions-are-a-key-piece-of-pakistans-dr...

While its flagship cruise missile programs – namely, the Taimur air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) and the Harbah anti-ship cruising missile (ASCM) – are drawing attention, Pakistan’s precision air-launched munitions portfolio is growing through the development of smaller systems.

For example, Global Industrial and Defence Solutions (GIDS) recently revealed se..., which took place in Malaysia earlier in the month of May. In parallel, the National Aerospace Science and Technology Park (NASTP) is developing a miniature ALCM by the name of KaGeM V3 in collaboratio....

The development of these small-sized air-launched munitions reflects a wider focus across the Pakistani military to leverage unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to expand its air surveillance and attack coverages in lieu of additional crewed aircraft. This is not to suggest that Pakistan will not acquire new crewed combat and special mission aircraft; rather, the expansion or net-growth of Pakistani airpower will likely be driven by new drones of a wide variety of sizes and capabilities. 

Thus, the development of the BURQ, KaGeM V3, and others should be viewed in light of a broader set of investments, especially in space-based assets – such as satellite communications (SATCOM) and satellite navigation (SATNAV) – and proprietary data-link systems. The new air-launched munitions are a piece of a wider effort in Pakistan of advancing a robust and far-reaching drone program.

[Riaz Haq]

How Pakistan Can Emulate Russia’s Use of Ballistic Missiles


https://quwa.org/pakistan-army-news/how-pakistan-can-emulate-russia...

On 02 July, Russia said that it destroyed five Ukrainian Air Force Su-27 Flanker fighter aircraft by using the Iskander-M tactical ballistic missile (TBM). The TBM strikes took place at Myrhorod airfield, which is located in Ukraine’s central Poltava region.

Though Russia’s claims are disputed by Ukraine, it still seems that the Russian military is finding success in its use of TBMs against Ukraine, notably the latter’s high-value targets (HVT), such as its airbases. In fact, Russia appears to specifically be targeting parked or stationary combat aircraft with its TBMs, hence speaking to a wider strategy of using the relatively low-cost munition to neutralize high-cost assets.


Not only are the strikes proving effective in depleting Kyiv’s air combat capabilities, but it also casts into question whether Ukraine is capable of protecting its forthcoming Western fighters, like the F-16. At the same time however, Russia is also vulnerable to similar action from Ukraine, which aims to use ballistic missiles, like the GM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), against the Russians.

-----------

Pakistan’s Army Takes Precision-Strike into its Own Hands
One of the most notable trends in Pakistan’s procurement policies has been the significant focus on giving the Pakistan Army (PA) its own precision-guided long-range strike capabilities. The Fatah-line of surface- to-surface missiles (SSM) is a key driver for achieving these capabilities.

The Fatah-1 is a guided multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) with a range of 140 km. Global Industrial Defence Solutions (GIDS) revealed an extended range variant of the MLRS with a range of 250 km. This was originally called the Fatah-2, but the designation was later given to a different platform, a TBM tested in 2024. The stated-range of the Fatah-2 is 400 km and, in March 2024, Pakistan revealed that it was also working on a Fatah-3 and Fatah-4 with ranges of 450 km and 700 km, respectively.

The Fatah-series adds to the Babur-line of land-attack cruise missiles (LACM), thereby providing the PA with a well-rounded stand-off strike capability that reaches up to 700 km. However, one should expect the PA to pursue even longer ranged designs, potentially in excess of 1,000 km, in the future.

Overall, the PA could be viewing the Fatah and Babur as important assets for deprecating India’s combat capabilities by targeting the latter’s air bases, air defence sites, and other HVTs that, at least in prior years, would have been the primary focus of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Navy test-fires ballistic missile having range of 350 km from warship

The system is equipped with an advanced navigation system with features to change its direction and speed.

Islamabad: The Pakistan Navy successfully test-fired an indigenously developed ballistic missile having a range of 350 km from a warship, it said on Monday.

"The missile system with a range of 350 km is capable of hitting land and sea targets with high precision,” according to the Pakistan Navy. The system is equipped with an advanced navigation system with features to change its direction and speed.

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/world/pakistan-navy-test-fires-ballist...

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Navy Tests Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile 'SMASH'

https://quwa.org/quwa-premium/pakistan-navy-tests-anti-ship-ballist...

On 04 November, the Pakistan Navy (PN) announced that it test-fired an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) with a range of 350 km. Based on the video footage released by the PN, the ASBM is called the ‘SMASH’ (possibly an acronym for ‘Supersonic Missile Anti-SHip’).

The same video footage also indicates that the PN launched the SMASH ASBM from a Zulfiquar-class (F-22P) multi-mission frigate, of which the PN operates four ships.

It is not known if the SMASH is related to the P282, which the PN leadership first revealed in 2020 as a ‘hypersonic’ solution. Previously, SMASH seemed to be a supersonic-cruising anti-ship missile (AShM), similar to the CM-302 or BrahMos, for example. It is worth noting, however, that the PN recently inducted CM-302; these are being deployed from its Tughril-class (Type 054A/P) frigates.


The Pakistan Navy Builds its Missile Mix
After embarking on its large-scale modernization and fleet expansion program, the PN set out to build its AShM inventory. It used to mainly rely on subsonic-cruising AShMs, such as the RGM-84 Harpoon, MBDA Exocet, and Chinese C-802. Not only was the PN’s missile mix restricted to subsonic designs, but all of its munitions were imported from the United States, France, or China.

This changed in 2016, when the PN test-fired the ‘Zarb’, a shore-based subsonic AShM. This was the first time the PN had deployed a locally built AShM. In 2017, the PN announced that it test-fired the Babur 3, a submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) based on the Babur-series land-attack cruise missile (LACM).

The final piece of the PN’s indigenous subsonic attack capability was the Harbah, a dual-role AShM/LACM that was test-fired in 2018. The export variant of the Harbah has a stated range of 280 km, but the AShM’s reach was likely capped for compliance with the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Considering how the Babur 3 (which has size restrictions for deployment from submarine torpedo tubes) offers a stated range of 450 km, the Harbah AShM/LACM should match, if not exceed, 450 km.

The next step of the PN’s missile development program was to induct supersonic and hypersonic systems…

[Riaz Haq]

Airshow at Nishan-e-Pakistan key feature of IDEAS 2024

https://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/851987-airshow-at-nishanepakistan-...

KARACHI (Dunya News) – An exhilarating airshow was held at Nishan-e-Pakistan, Sea View, in connection with the defence exhibition IDEAS 2024.

Pakistan Air Force pilots showcased their skills with fighter aircraft, while the Navy’s Sea King, Z-9, and Alouett helicopters demonstrated professional prowess.

A freefall parachute jump was performed from C-130 aircraft, and Navy’s Special Service Group presented an impressive gun drill.

The event also featured joint counter-terrorism demos by the armed forces, including beach assault and static displays.

Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah graced the event as the chief guest, joined by Governor Kamran Tessori.

[Riaz Haq]

What Putin’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile means for NATO security

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/30/russia-oreshnik-mis...

The Russian leader’s use of the missile against Ukraine sends a powerful signal about his intention to weaken NATO and bend Europe’s security architecture to Russia’s will.

After Russia’s launch last week of its Oreshnik intermediate-range missile, state-owned propaganda outlet RT aired a video graphic depicting the missile’s flight times to major European capitals: 20 minutes to London and Paris, 15 minutes to Berlin and 12 minutes to Warsaw.

--------

It marks what some Western arms experts see as the opening shot in a new European arms race that could last for decades and consume billions of dollars in NATO countries and Russia, with Moscow already plowing about 40 percent of its budget into military and security forces.

In a move foreshadowed months ago but timed to express displeasure over Ukraine’s use of ATACMS and French-British Storm Shadow missiles against Russia, Putin last week also formally lowered Russia’s threshold for using nuclear weapons.

This deepens the ambiguity about when Russia could use nuclear weapons, as Putin seeks to foster uncertainty and amplify European security fears ahead of Trump’s inauguration.

-----------

Decker Eveleth, an analyst at the CNA security think tank, based in Arlington, Va., said that Russia could destroy air bases and military targets across a wide area of Europe with just a few conventionally armed Oreshniks, and that the weapon’s nuclear capability carries a striking nuclear threat.

“Oreshnik probably has the capability to carry six nuclear warheads into Europe in about 15 to 20 minutes, and due to the speed and trajectory the missile would fly on, it would be extremely difficult to intercept,” he said.

At the meeting with security chiefs, Putin smiled as he praised the missile, boasting that no one else in the world has such a weapon and promising state awards to the developers. His message was clear: Russia has a significant advantage over Europe in missile strike capabilities, at a time when Trump’s future support for NATO is in doubt.


-------

Alexander Graef, senior researcher at the Hamburg-based Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, believes that Europe is at the threshold of “a new missile age.” In July, the United States and Germany announced plans to rotate intermediate-range U.S. missiles into Germany starting in 2026 — prompting a sharp response from Moscow — while several nations have joined a French-led project, the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA), to develop a long-range missile.

“We are in an arms race, and it’s going to develop over the next 20 years,” Graef said. “And so what I think is going to happen is that these different parties — Russia, states in Europe, the United States — are growing their arsenals because they don’t have the numbers yet to use these weapons effectively and to destroy the many targets that are possibly there.”

[Riaz Haq]

Damen delivers second OPV 2600 to Pakistan Navy - Naval News

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/12/damen-delivers-second-...

Damen Shipyards Group has delivered the second in a series of two Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV) 2600 to the Pakistan Navy.

The OPV project has brought both the Pakistan Navy and Damen to new levels of enhanced cooperation in diverse fields. The delivery of the fourth OPV comes at a time of increasing collaboration as the two parties signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) during the International Defence Exhibition and Seminar (IDEAS) in Karachi in November.



The MoU demonstrates Damen’s commitment to supporting the Pakistan Maritime Science and Technology Park (PMSTP), an initiative recently unveiled by the Pakistan Navy. With the creation of a central hub close to the University of Bahria, Karachi, the PMSTP looks to foster collaboration between the authorities, industry and researchers, towards innovation and advancement in maritime technology.

As part of its scope as a PMSTP partner, Damen will be supporting the establishment of a local service centre to provide maintenance and services to Damen vessels operating in the region, such as the Pakistan Navy’s OPVs. Damen will collaborate with local businesses on shipbuilding projects, leveraging the advanced design and engineering capabilities it will develop as a partner in the PMSTP, enabling the joint design and development of new vessels for the Pakistan Navy.


---------------------------

Two new warships to be inducted into Pakistan fleet on Defense Day 2024

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2569870/pakistan

The construction of PNS Babur started on June 4, 2020, and it was launched on August 15, 2021, while commissioning took place on September 23, 2023.

The Babur-class corvette, also known as the PN MILGEM class, is a class of four heavy corvettes under construction for the Pakistan Navy. This class is a subclass of the Turkish MILGEM project. The corvette class is heavier and larger than the Turkish Ada-class corvette and also equipped with vertical launch systems.

“Four Babur class ships equipped with a vertical launching system are being inducted into the Pakistan Navy,” ISPR said.

“Under the Pak-Turkiye agreement, 2 ships are being built in Istanbul and 2 in Karachi. Three other Babur class ships PNS Badr, Tariq and Khyber are currently in various stages of preparation.”

Babur class ships are capable of fighting above the surface, underwater, and in the air.

“The third Yarmouk-class OPV 2600 for the Pakistan Navy has also been built at Galati Shipyard in Romania,” ISPR said about PNS Hunain built in Romania. “The last two OPVs have a displacement of 2600 tons compared to the first two ships of the Yarmouk class.”

The Yarmook-class corvette is primarily based on the Dutch Damen Group’s Offshore Patrol Vessel 1900.

Yarmouk class ships have the status of Guided Missile Corvettes in the Pakistan Navy. All ships of this class, including PNS Hunain, are suitable for surface and air warfare as well as search and rescue operations.

The 98 meter long PNS Hunain has a speed of around 24 knots and with the help of a vertical launching system can propel surface-to-air missiles.

“Along with the 76 mm main gun, PNS Haneen is also equipped with two 20 mm secondary guns,” ISPR said.

PNS Yamama, the fourth and final vessel of the Yarmouk class, is undergoing completion after its launch in February this year.

[Riaz Haq]

Damen Shipyards Launches Fourth Pakistan Navy OPV - Quwa


https://quwa.org/daily-news/damen-shipyards-launches-fourth-pakista...

On 21 February, Damen Shipyards launched the fourth Yarmouk-class offshore patron vessel (OPV) for the Pakistan Navy (PN) from its facilities in Galati, Romania.

Though the fourth Damen OPV ordered by the PN, this ship – i.e., PNS Yamama (274) – is the second of the ‘Batch-II’ variant, which is larger and more capable than the first pair of Yarmouk-class OPVs. The first Batch-II OPV, PNS Hunain, was launched for sea trials in September 2023.

The PN initiated its OPV program in 2017 through an order for two Damen OPV 1900s plus an option for two additional ships from the Netherlands. The PN inducted the first two ships – i.e., PNS Yarmouk and PNS Tabuk – in February 2020 and May 2020, respectively.

Based on Damen’s OPV 1900 design, the first two ships have a displacement of 2,300 tons each. The Yarmouk-class has a length of 90 m, top speed of 23 knots, endurance of 40 days, and crew of over 60 personnel. The PN acquired ships to support a wide range of missions, including maritime security and policing, surveillance and intelligence, and search-and-rescue, among others.

The Yarmouk-class OPVs will likely be the PN’s main asset for policing Pakistan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Basically, it will support the PN’s anti-smuggling/piracy, counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism, fishery control, and humanitarian and disaster-relief operations. This would free the PN’s frigate and corvette assets to focus on their core missions and, potentially, reduce the risk of damage in peacetime resulting from asymmetrical maritime missions.

That said, the PN does intend to leverage the Yarmouk-class OPVs in wartime. The first two Yarmouk-class OPVs can be configured with anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM) and close-in-weapons-systems (CIWS), giving it long-range strike and point-defence anti-air capabilities. The Damen OPV 1900 can also carry two special mission containers, which the PN could use for anti-submarine warfare (ASW) or mine countermeasures (MCM), thus making these OPVs versatile when required.

With a displacement of 2,600 tons, the Batch-II OPV is larger than the preceding two ships and more capable in its anti-ship warfare (AShW) and anti-air warfare (AAW) potential. Based on the illustration of the ship released by Damen, the Batch-II can carry a supersonic-cruising ASCM (possibly the CM-302) in a two-by-two configuration as well as vertical launch system (VLS) cells for a medium-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, possibly the MBDA CAMM-ER…