Will Gwadar Grow to Become a Major Metropolis Like Shenzhen?

[Riaz Haq]

"We believe Gwadar is following in the footsteps of Shenzhen which represented a historic population rise, from a population of 30,000 in 1980 to 11 million people in 2017. Gwadar is poised to see massive population growth due to incoming industries, and we expect this to be one of the most strategic cities in South Asia." Hao-Yeh Chang,  China Pak Investments Corporation

Gwadar: The Next Shenzhen?

Gwadar is booming. It's being called the next Shenzhen by some and the next Hong Kong by others as an emerging new port city in the region to rival Dubai. Land prices in Gwadar are skyrocketing, according to media reports. Gwadar Airport air traffic growth of 73% was the fastest of all airports in Pakistan where overall air traffic grew by 23% last year, according to Anna Aero publication.  A new international airport is now being built in Gwadar to handle soaring passenger and cargo traffic.

Recent Aerial View of Gwadar Hammerhead Growth

Gwadar Property Boom:

The volume of Gwadar property searches surged 14-fold on Pakistan’s largest real estate database, Zameen.com, between 2014 and 2016, up from a prior rate of a few hundred a month. “It’s like a gold rush,” said Chief Executive Zeeshan Ali Khan to an Express Tribune newspaper reporter. “Anyone who is interested in real estate, be it an investor or a developer, is eyeing Gwadar.”

Chinese private investment company China Pak Investment Corporation has recently announced it is acquiring 3.6 million square foot International Port City project in Gwadar. It plans to develop a $150 million gated community to handle the influx of 500,000 Chinese professionals expected in Gwadar by 2022.

Proposed Gwadar International Airport

China Pak Investment Announcement:

On October 20, 2017, Pakistan's Geo TV news reported that China Pak Investment Company plans to increase its commitment to  invest $500 million in Gwadar in the first phase of a project aimed at building homes for around 500,000 incoming Chinese professionals expected in Gwadar by 2023. An earlier September 29, 2017 press release by China Pak Investment Corporation said as follows:

"The final master plan for China Pak Hills is currently being refined in Hong Kong, and will feature a range of state-of-the-art amenities including an open-air shopping boulevard; indoor shopping mall; restaurants and eateries; an international school and nursery; six community parks; indoor and outdoor sports facilities including tennis courts and a resident's gymnasium; a water desalination plant and recycling centre. China Pak Hills will also be home to the Gwadar Financial District, catering to the growing financial sector and adding much needed A Grade office space to Gwadar's growing market."

Gwadar Port Development:

Gwadar port's planned capacity when it is completed will be 300 to 400 million tons of cargo annually.  It is comparable to the capacity of all of India's ports combined annual capacity of 500 million tons of cargo today.   It is far larger than the 10-12 million tons cargo handling capacity planned for Chabahar.

To put Gwadar's scale in perspective, let's compare it with the largest US port of Long Beach which handles 80 million tons of cargo, about a quarter of what Gwadar will handle upon completion of the project. Gawadar port will be capable of handling the world's largest container ships and massive oil tankers.

Gawadar port is being built in Pakistan by the Chinese as part of the ambitious $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that will eventually serve as Hong Kong West for  growing Chinese trade with the Middle East and Europe.  CPEC will also enable Pakistan to bypass Afghanistan to trade with Central Asia through China across China's borders with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.

India's Strong Opposition: 

Pakistan suspects that India's real objective in Afghanistan and Iran is to locate its intelligence agents under the cover of Chabahar port construction workers to sabotage China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and support Baloch insurgency to destabilize Pakistan. These suspicions were strengthened when Indian spy Kulbhushan Yadav, operating under the fake name Husain Mubarak Patel, was arrested in Balochistan in March, 2016. Yadav confessed he was operating as an undercover RAW agent from his base in Chabahar, Iran. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made no secret of his strong opposition to CPEC and his support for Baloch insurgents.

Chinese Commitment to Pakistan: 

Unlike US-Pakistan ties that have been essentially of a transactional nature, Pakistan-China relationship appears to truly strategic.  A recent book "The China Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics" by American policy analyst Andrew Small quotes a top Chinese official as saying to his American counterparts that "Pakistan is China's Israel". Earlier, in 2011, some news reports quoted Chinese officials as warning that "any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China".  Growing Chinese investment commitments in Pakistan now exceed $100 billion, a further indication of the importance China attaches to Pakistan as one of its closest allies.

Summary:

China-Pakistan ties appear to be truly strategic.  The strength of Chinese commitment to Pakistan is increasing with growing investments in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor related projects. It is now highly visible in terms of the influx of the Chinese money and citizens into Pakistan. China's actions on the ground reinforce the credibility of Chinese officials' reported quotes describing Pakistan as "China's Israel" and warnings to the United States that "any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China".

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan-China-Russia vs India-Japan-US

Pakistan-China Defense Ties "Irk West"

How Strategic Are China-Pakistan Ties?

Karan Thapar Debunks India's Narrative on Kubhushan Jhadav

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Gated Communities in Pakistan

Gwadar vs Chanahar

Travel and Tourism Boom in Pakistan

US-Pakistan Transactional Relationship

[Riaz Haq]

Why fears of a Chinese naval base at Pakistan’s Gwadar port are overblown

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231705/why-fears-chin...

Intelligence gathering by Chinese entities or navy personnel at such facilities is hardly new. US Navy Lieutenant Commander Joseph McGinnis’ research highlighted the Karachi and Jinnah naval bases as primary choices for the Chinese navy due to their “superior repair, logistics, and military facilities”. If China were to use Pakistan-based facilities for overseas operations, these two bases would be prioritised.

Besides, Pakistan hosts most of its naval assets – much of them Chinese-supplied – at the Karachi and Jinnah bases. Chinese technicians have been present at the former for years and are likely to be at the latter too, given the relocation of strategic assets there since 2011.
Beijing would probably have been gathering intel on US naval activities in the Persian Gulf through its assets and personnel at these bases. If the US had reservations, it would have exercised its leverage over Pakistan to address them.
Additionally, such surveillance is hardly unique. Chinese firms operating ports in over 50 countries similarly monitor naval operations, according to Isaac B. Kardon and Wendy Leutert in their 2022 International Security article, “Pier competitor: China’s power position in global ports”.
Pakistan is likely to accept this trade-off in return for Chinese naval transfers, given the constraints on obtaining military equipment from the US and Europe. Islamabad aims to increase its intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities not only against India but against terrorists, who have previously targeted Pakistan’s naval strategic assets.

The Pakistani cabinet’s recent nod towards renewing the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement with the US after its 2020 expiration indicates Islamabad’s interest in US military tech integrated with ISR features. If China offers similar tech, it might understandably want access for regional data collection.
Yet, this is vastly different from the Chinese navy deploying surveillance ships directly on the Pakistani coast. Currently, the Chinese navy primarily utilises its Djibouti base for noncombat and anti-piracy missions near the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, up to North Africa. Having a foothold in Pakistan’s southwestern shores would significantly aid operations extending to the Persian Gulf.

[Riaz Haq]

Why fears of a Chinese naval base at Pakistan’s Gwadar port are overblown

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231705/why-fears-chin...


Islamabad has previously allowed port calls by the Chinese navy, including submarine visits. Pakistan’s chief of naval staff recently indicated an openness to more such visits, including from Chinese aircraft carriers.
Still, the primary role of the temporary deployment of Chinese navy personnel and warships on these bases has been to offer training to Pakistani navy officers and improve interoperability on Pakistan’s warships of Chinese origin. To date, the Chinese navy hasn’t established a consistent naval presence on Pakistani bases.

Pakistan would be wise to avoid granting the Chinese navy access to its bases for contingency operations, as this could one day translate into regional military actions or coercive diplomacy.
Instead, Islamabad seems to be leveraging the possibility of such port calls to secure support from the US. For example, the US has approved a US$450 million F-16 sustainment sale and supported an International Monetary Fund loan package.

There are two scenarios in which Pakistan might allow permanent Chinese navy deployments at its bases.
One, Washington’s support for Islamabad diminishes and punitive actions against Pakistan increase, coupled with amplified backing for India’s defence capabilities and potential military campaigns against Pakistan. In other words, unless Pakistan anticipates an irreversible breakdown in its strategic relationship with the US, it would be reluctant to permit a permanent Chinese naval presence.
Two, if China supersedes the US in economic, military and diplomatic dominance, and Pakistan secures guarantees from Beijing, then Pakistan’s expectation of US benefits or penalties may diminish, enabling more latitude in its decisions.
Riaz Khokhar is a research analyst on geopolitics and security of the Indo-Pacific region and a former Asia studies visiting fellow at East-West Center in Washington

[Riaz Haq]

China, Pakistan to enhance connectivity of Gwadar Port

https://en.portnews.ru/news/369176/

China and Pakistan agreed to solidly enhance connectivity between the Gwadar Port and other parts of Pakistan, said a joint statement issued here Tuesday during Chinese Premier Li Qiang's official visit to Pakistan.

Recognizing the significance of the Gwadar Port as a key hub for cross-regional connectivity, the two sides reaffirmed their readiness to speed up the development of the auxiliary infrastructure of the Gwadar Port and to steadily attract more cargo shipments to the port.

They also agreed to find a solution to the inadequate water and power supply at an early date, to accelerate the development of the port's industrial zone and to solidly enhance connectivity between the port and other parts of Pakistan.

[Riaz Haq]

Feature: China-funded forest flourishes in Pakistan's Gwadar as symbol of friendship

https://english.news.cn/20241001/d0db756e74104906b9502b59eccce0d1/c...

by Misbah Saba Malik, Deng Kaiyin

GWADAR, Pakistan, Sept. 30 (Xinhua) -- As the sea breeze swept through a vibrant forest just a few yards away from the bustling Gwadar Port, here in Pakistan's southwest Balochistan province, Muhammad Iqbal called out firmly from a corner, instructing his subordinates to water the plants carefully, making sure not to trample the delicate saplings.

For the 57-year-old fellow, who has been working with the port for the last 16 years, this friendship forest is not just a collection of greenery but a personal labor of love.

As one of the pillar projects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the Gwadar Port has been operated by China Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC) since 2013.

Launched in 2013, CPEC, the flagship project of the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative, is a corridor linking the Gwadar Port in southwest Pakistan's Balochistan province with Kashgar in northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, which highlights energy, transport, and industrial cooperation in the first phase, while in the new phase expands to fields of agriculture and livelihood, among others.

"This place was once barren, with nothing but dust blowing around all day," he recalled. "One day, a Chinese manager from COPHC told me that they were going to transform this land into a forest, and that is how it all began."

"We have selected tree species suitable for local climate with wind-breaking and sand-fixing functions for the greening project," said Wang Ruilei, who was in charge of greening at COPHC, adding that after joint efforts from both sides, more than 4,000 trees have been planted in the friendship forest in Gwadar.

The once-empty plot has now blossomed into a lush sanctuary, and the seedlings that Iqbal planted are now grown into strong trees providing beautiful scenery and fresh air to the people of Gwadar.

"As per our observation, the maximum ground temperature in a year used to reach 52 degrees Celsius, but now it is around 43 degrees Celsius," said Wang, "I am proud to say that I can feel the improvement of the local climate brought by the forest."

The forest has seen Chinese ambassadors to Pakistan and foreign ambassadors from countries like the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and the European Union to Pakistan plant trees during their visits to Gwadar, and each tree stands as a symbol of growing diplomatic ties between Pakistan and these nations.

Bilal Javed, Iqbal's subordinate who joined him a year ago, has been assigned the most crucial responsibility of nurturing the plants the dignitaries had planted.

"Iqbal is meticulous about these plants," Bilal said, adding that "they represent memories of our foreign guests, and we must ensure they flourish -- just like Pakistan's relations with China and these countries."

The 27-year-old said that the forest also motivated him and many other young people of Gwadar to replicate the good work and plant trees at their homes.

"Before this forest, this area used to be dusty and warm, but with all this greenery, the air feels cleaner and fresher," Bilal said, taking a deep breath as the breeze rustled the leaves of the trees overhead.

As a key component of the Chinese Ambassador's Green Employment Plan Project, the forest has helped promote local employment and increased farmers' income in Gwadar.

In a conversation with Xinhua, Allah Buksh, another forester in the forest, said the trees and shrubs planted in the forest have provided a large amount of feed for the sheep farm.

"Chinese staff has also taught local farmers techniques such as cuttings, grafting, scientific weeding, and fertilization to increase crop yields," he added.

The transformation of this once-desolate land into a flourishing forest has not only beautified the port area but has also sparked a green movement, making Iqbal plan to expand the forest of the kind to other parts of the city.

[Riaz Haq]

Pak-China Friendship Hospital brings lifesaving relief and hope in Pakistan's Gwadar-Xinhua

https://english.news.cn/20241104/759137d30165436e91c6f3416b0bf557/c...


Affan Faiq Zada, Medical Superintendent: "We have seen drastic improvements in the health outcomes here. This hospital has been a blessing for the local community." The Pak-China Friendship Hospital is making a significant impact in Pakistan's Gwadar. #CPEC

100-bed hospital

900 patients seen daily in outpatient clinic

State of the Art equipment including CT Scan, Digital X-rays, medical lab etc.

https://youtu.be/cj8Q0cKHhpY?si=nBl4tUnYzDkOZih_

[Riaz Haq]

Inspired by China's city of Shenzhen, the master plan of Gwadar smart port city envisions the development of an industrial base that will not only create a lot of employment opportunities but also promote tourism in the area.

https://en.ndrc.gov.cn/news/mediarusources/202211/t20221103_1340804...

ISLAMABAD, Nov. 1 (Xinhua) -- Pakistan's southwestern Gwadar district will be a hub of trade and investment in the future thanks to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Director-General of Gwadar Development Authority (GDA) Mujeeb Ur Rehman Qambrani said on Monday.

Addressing a special session on "Gwadar and the Road to Sustainable Development" organized by the Islamabad-based think tank Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Qambrani said that the master plan of Gwadar smart port city envisions the development of an industrial base which will not only create a lot of employment opportunities but also promote tourism in the area.

The master plan is inspired by China's city of Shenzhen and the GDA is vigorously executing it for timely delivery, he said, adding that the master plan was finalized after collaboration between Pakistani, Chinese, and other stakeholders.

He said that Gwadar international airport being constructed with cooperation from China will be functional in 2023 and will enhance the development process of the district.

Hassan Daud Butt, senior advisor at the China Study Center of the think-tank, said that Pakistan-China cooperation on the CPEC and combating COVID-19 has transformed Pakistan's technological pace.

"China is building an enabling environment for business and economic opportunities in our country. Therefore, we must prepare ourselves to capture the opportunity," he added.

Also speaking at the event, Sajid Amin, deputy executive director at the SDPI, said that the development sector and civil society organizations can play a pivotal role as knowledge partners and in the advocacy of the immense socio-economic potential of Gwadar.