Pakistan Downs India's French Rafale Fighter Jets in History's Largest Aerial Battle

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) pilots flying Chinese-made J10C fighter jets shot down at least two Indian Air Force's French-made Rafale jets in history's largest ever aerial battle involving over 100 combat aircraft on both sides, according to multiple media reports. India had 72 warplanes on the attack and Pakistan responded with 42 of its own, according to Pakistani military. The Indian government has not yet acknowledged its losses but senior French and US intelligence officials have confirmed that at least one Indian Rafale jet was shot down by Pakistan on May 7, 2025. Reports of  more Rafale downings are being investigated by western intelligence officials. This marks the first time that the sophisticated French-made warplane has been lost in combat.

Rafale is the most advanced French 4.5 generation fighter plane. Indian Prime Minister Narendra spoke about India's need for Rafale back in 2019 after the last IAF-PAF dogfight and said: "We (Indians) acutely felt the absence of Rafale today.....if we had Rafale today the results would have been very different....desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai"  Then Mr. Modi proceeded to spend $7.4 billion to purchase 26 Rafale fighter jets from France in the hope of achieving air superiority over Pakistan.  Each Rafale cost Indian taxpayers $288 million. 

Military aviation analysts conclude from the results of the air battle that the Chinese technology is as good, if not better than, the western technology. However, men count as much, if not more than, the machines.  The legendary US Air Force pilot Chuck Yeager called Pakistan Air Force pilots "the best in the world".  In another tweet in 2015, Yeager said "they (PAF pilots) kicked the Indians butt". 

In the 1980s, the Pakistan Air Force pilots went head-to-head with Russian combat pilots in Afghanistan. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has the distinction of being the only air force that has engaged and shot down multiple Russian fighter pilots in combat since WWII.  The most prominent among those shot down by PAF was Colonel Alexander Rutskoy who ejected over Pakistani soil and was captured by Pakistan. After his release, Rutskoy was decorated as a hero of the Soviet Union and went onto become vice president of Russia under Boris Yeltsin, before leading an attempted coup in 1993, according to The National Interest publication. 

The aerial battle between Pakistani and Indian fighter jets, which Pakistani officials claim downed five Indian planes, was one of the “largest and longest in recent aviation history,” a senior Pakistani security source told CNN.  Over 100 combat planes battled for over an hour, with neither side leaving its own airspace, according to the CNN source who detailed that the missile exchanges were happening at distances sometimes greater than 160 kilometers (100 miles).  The entire air battle was conducted using BVR (beyond visual range) radars/sensors with stand-off weapons. 

Global militaries and defense analysts are now studying the India-Pakistan aerial battle on May 7, 2025, according to Reuters. Here's an excerpt of the Reuters' report: 

"Experts said the live use of advanced weapons would be analyzed across the world, including in China and the United States which are both preparing for a potential conflict over Taiwan or in the wider Indo-Pacific region. One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters there was high confidence that Pakistan had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets". 

Here's Prime Minister Modi Speaking of India's Acute Need For Rafale in 2016:

https://youtu.be/QIt0EAAr3PU?si=KpcJW60jvD9r0xeQ

http://www.youtube.com/embed/QIt0EAAr3PU?si=KpcJW60jvD9r0xeQ"; title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>" height="315" src="https://img1.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" width="560" style="cursor: move; background-color: #b2b2b2;" /> 

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[Riaz Haq]

....this time, both countries deployed types of weapons they haven’t used against each other before, such as drones and loitering munitions in large numbers, making the outcome more unpredictable.

Technological changes on the battlefield are changing the way in which conflicts precipitate, said Harsh Pant, a visiting professor at the King’s College India Institute and vice president of the foreign policy program at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation.

https://www.wsj.com/world/india/india-and-pakistan-step-up-attacks-...

[Riaz Haq]

The recent battle between Pakistani and Indian forces ended in an unambiguous victory for Pakistan.

By Brandon J. Weichert

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-chinese-missiles-routed-...

China’s PL-15 is an active radar-guided, long-range air-to-air missile. Designed by the Luoyang-based China Airborne Missile Academy (CAMA), it serves as a beyond-visual-range (BVR), weapon for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), People’s Liberation Army Naval Air Force, and the Pakistani Air Force.

First test-fired in 2011, China’s PL-15 was first spotted in 2013 mounted on a Chengdu J-20 “Mighty Dragon” fifth-generation warplane. The missile entered service between 2015 and 2017. Within the Pakistan Air Force, the PL-15 is equipped on their Chinese-produced JF-17 Block III warplanes, as well as the J-10CE fighters—the class of warplane that, according to initial reports, shot down all those IAF birds.

The PL-15 is designed to engage high-value targets like airborne early warning and control aircraft, tankers, and fighters at extended ranges, replacing the older PL-12 missile as the standard BVR missile for Chinese and Pakistani forces. The missile employs a dual-use solid-fuel rocket motor, though its export variant, the PL-15E—likely used in the dogfight on Wednesday—uses a slightly different propellant or motor. Some sources argue that the PL-15s can achieve speeds of up to Mach 5, though this is unconfirmed.

Most analysts believe that the Chinese domestic PL-15 model is equivalent to the Anglo-French MBDA Meteor missile. It is also meant to compete against the U.S.-made AIM-120D AMRAAM. In fact, China’s creation of the PL-15 likely prompted the U.S. military to create the AIM-260 and the AIM-174B to counter it.





These missiles feature hybrid guidance systems, including the Inertial Navigation System (INS) along with a mid-course two-way datalink for updates from the launching aircraft or airborne command and control planes. There is an onboard active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar seeker with active and passive modes for terminal homing, offering high precision and resistance to countermeasures.

Folding fins designed for an internal carriage in stealth aircraft, such as the J-20, are one of the defining features of this missile. The PL-15E variant has folding rear fins to increase internal payload capacity; this gives it a reduced range compared to its domestic PL-15 Chinese cousin.

Pakistan Won Using China’s Defense Technology
Nevertheless, the Pakistanis have deployed this system with lethal impact in their growing conflict with India. Their successful engagement downing five IAF warplanes is a tremendous blow to the IAF, as well as to India’s military. While any military engaging in a near-peer conflict can expect large numbers of its airplanes to be damaged or destroyed, the fact of the matter is that the Pakistanis were not supposed to be this effective.

It is still the earliest phase of the conflict, and further clashes are likely. India, at least on paper, has many advantages over their Pakistani neighbors. But the successful attacks by the Pakistani planes indicate that Islamabad is playing for keeps. What’s more, it is a warning to the Americans that Chinese missile technology should not be underestimated—especially as the Americans and Chinese circle each other for a future battle over Taiwan.

[Riaz Haq]

CNN's Nic Robertson’s Report on how India-Pakistan Ceasefire came about.

https://x.com/NicRobertsonCNN/status/1921252637451641018

https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/smer/date/2025-05-10/segment/01

SMERCONISH: Nic, what's the latest?

[09:05:00] NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLAMATIC EDITOR: Yes, I was just talking to a source who was literally in the room where it happened, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio, I was told, played a massive role in bringing about this ceasefire, a ceasefire that multiple times today and even yesterday, because it was in the works yesterday, perhaps over the last 48 hours, as we've been reporting, Pakistan was sort of on a military pause to give a window for diplomacy.

What I understand from this source is that was blown out of the window early this morning when India attacked three air bases, one of them here in the capital, just on the outskirts of the capital, that, according to the source, Pakistan responded with a relentless, a massive barrage of missiles and rockets, they say, Pakistan says, into Indian military facilities, bases inside India, air bases, weapons storage, and along that disputed line of control in Kashmir against military bases there. They say that, this from the Pakistan perspective, their communications, how they were communicating with Secretary Rubio, that that really put India on the back foot. It didn't know what had happened. India, according to Pakistan, reached out to Secretary Rubio, reached out to the Saudis, reached out to the Turks, reached out to others to find a diplomatic off ramp, got engaged after that onslaught in diplomacy, but telling the mediators that they were going to go on a pause on the Indian side. And then, according to Pakistan, that didn't happen. There was another exchange of rocket fire that happened several times during the day today.

And it was only in the last couple of hours before this ceasefire came into effect, just about an hour or so ago, that there was enough of a pause to call it and say that this was real, that enough diplomacy and leverage have been put on both sides to get them to stop here. Now, the key issue for Pakistan going forward is water. India has still said it's cut off the water from those three vital rivers, from the mountains in Kashmir, vital to Pakistan, existential to Pakistan.

I said, what about that? And the source said, look, this is a ceasefire. Everything works out from that. But from the Pakistan perspective, they've been up all night. From the Indian perspective, they've been up all night.

There was a lot of tiredness. There was a sense that they just wanted to get this done. Otherwise, in the words of this source, it would have just spiraled into something much worse. It was now or never, if you will. It was going to get a whole lot worse.

So I think a sense of relief here, but a sense of whiplash, too, for what the country has been through in the past few days.

SMERCONISH: Nic Robertson, thank you for the report from Islamabad.

[Riaz Haq]

Rafale failed in Sindoor! Rethink this French option for MFA | Security Wise

By Bharat Karnad, Indian Defense Analyst


https://bharatkarnad.com/2025/05/10/rafale-proved-crappy-in-sindoor...


The usual, unsatisfactory, inconclusive end to Sindoor. And that too inside of three days of start of military operations! What is equally surprising is how quickly we accepted US mediation, unless the entire Op Sindoor was planned on the basis that after a few days of slinging things around in which the Indian military would be permitted to do as much damage to the Pakistan military as possible, the US would step in with the arm twister of IMF credit of $1.3 billion, to bring Islamabad in line.

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In the main, Sindoor revealed the Indian Air Force’s flawed assessment of technology and trends. Its showboat Rafale combat aircraft came a cropper. Based on news stories in CNN (https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/09/china/china-military-tech-pakist...), Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-do...) and The Telegraph of London (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/9caaf214c46509a7), featuring Pakistani claims and US sources supporting such claims (of as many as 5 IAF aircraft downed — 2 Rafales, 1 Su-30, 2 Mirage 2000s) , Captain Jawahar Bhagwat, former commander of INS Chakra, SSN, sent in his take on the IAF-PAF tussle in Sindoor which is worth quoting (as he sent it, almost in blank verse!):

“Saab Erieye AWACS patrolling silently
J-10C fighters flying in passive mode
PL-15E missiles—the export PL-15E, the domestic variant with over 300 km reach and Mach 5 speed—locked in and fired
The Rafale didn’t even know it was targeted until the missile was 50 km away. At that speed, the Indian pilot had 9 seconds. Not enough to react. Not enough to survive.”

The IAF presence over J&K was sparse in 2 of the 3 days. Why?

“Because every time a fighter lifts off, Pakistani radars pick it up.
Because the Erieye sees what Indian radars can’t.
Because the PL-15 launches from outside Rafale’s threat envelope.
Because the Rafale, once India’s silver bullet, has been turned into a $250 million sitting duck.The IAF now flies 300 km behind its own borders.”

And, as Captain Bhagwat correctly noted while a spendthrift IAF invested in prohibitively priced weapons platforms, like the Rafale, the PAF invested in the “kill chain” inclusive of a few J-10Cs, Saab AWACS and mostly long range A2A ordnance. Recall how the Rafale was ballyhooed by Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa, CAS at the time of the failed 2019 Balakot strike who, not too long ago rued the fact that he did not have the Rafale for that action.

[Riaz Haq]

Nur khan base attack prompted US intervention: NYT

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2544711/indian-attack-on-nur-khan-base...


Without disclosing the nature of the intelligence, citing its sensitivity, the CNN reportstated that a core group of senior US officials, including Vice President Vance, Secretary of State and interim National Security Adviser Marco Rubio, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, had been closely monitoring the situation.

However, the most alarming development came late on May 9, when explosions struck Nur Khan Airbase, located in Rawalpindi. The base serves as a key transport and refuelling hub for the Pakistan Air Force and lies just kilometres away from the Strategic Plans Division – the command overseeing Pakistan’s estimated 170 nuclear warheads.

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Vance called Indian prime minister to encourage ceasefire talks after receiving alarming intelligence, sources say

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/10/politics/vance-modi-india-pakist...

A core group of top US officials — including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State and interim national security adviser Marco Rubio, and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles — had been closely monitoring the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan when on Friday morning, the US received alarming intelligence, Trump administration officials told CNN. While they declined to describe the nature of the information, citing its sensitivity, they said it was critical in persuading the three officials that the US should increase its involvement.

Vance himself would call Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The vice president briefed President Donald Trump on the plan, then spoke with Modi at noon ET on Friday, making clear to the Indian prime minister that the White House believed there was a high probability for dramatic escalation as the conflict went into the weekend, the administration officials said. Vance encouraged Modi to have his country communicate with Pakistan directly and to consider options for de-escalation, the officials said. The behind-the-scenes details of the US involvement have not previously been reported.

At that point, the officials said, the US believed the nuclear-armed neighbors were not talking, and it needed to get them back to the bargaining table. Vance also outlined to Modi a potential off-ramp that the US understood the Pakistanis would be amenable to, the officials said, though they did not offer details.

Following the call, State Department officials, including Rubio, began working the phones with their counterparts in India and Pakistan through the night, the sources said.

Rubio had been calling people in the region beginning Tuesday with a general idea of how to reach a ceasefire, but the administration left the finer details of the agreement for India and Pakistan to work out directly.

[Riaz Haq]

Derek J. Grossman
@DerekJGrossman
Things went very wrong when India struck Pakistan's Nur Khan air base the other day. Whether wittingly or not, Indian forces threatened nearby Pakistani nuclear C2. Hard to exaggerate just how dangerous situation had become prior to US-brokered ceasefire.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/us/politics/trump-india-pakistan...

https://x.com/DerekJGrossman/status/1921644298564456731


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Shashank Joshi
@shashj
It’s worth recalling the four nuclear red lines that were articulated by the head of Pakistan’s nuclear forces in 2002 (see below). In theory, Indian forces didn’t breach any of them last week. Whatever damage was done, it certainly wasn’t a “large part” of Pakistan’s air or ground forces. There was no territorial conquest & it seems unlikely India intended that.

In practice, judging by early reports (CNN, NYT, NDTV) it seems some Indian strikes near nuclear-related facilities might have been seen by Pakistan as threatening the survivability of its nuclear arsenal- or at least that’s what Pakistan wanted to project to India and to the United States (and perhaps now to others such as China).

One possible lesson for India is that you can conduct major strikes against Pakistani military bases without triggering nuclear use- implying we are more likely to see this in the next crisis. The view is that this crisis has re-opened conventional military options that might have been seen as closed after nuclear tests in 1998. (The Pakistani view is that they have matched India on each rung of the escalation ladder; the Indian view is that Indian strikes were more effective and impactful than Pakistani ones, which they claim were largely intercepted).

The other possible lesson is that these strikes can quickly take you closer to the real or perceived nuclear threshold, triggering external intervention that constrains the military campaign. Escalation in the next crisis then depends on whether India believes these nuclear signals (an open question, whatever people will say in the immediate aftermath of the crisis) and what leverage outsiders can bring to bear.

It’s also possible nuclear signals didn’t play a big role at all- that each side was in any case ready to halt the campaign, with expanding strikes bringing diminishing returns & each country able to point to certain tangible successes on different dimensions. A lot of uncertainty all round, and it’ll take longer to sift through the chronology and make sense of events.

https://x.com/shashj/status/1921514597594370061

[Riaz Haq]

Electronic Warfare and Control of Electromagnetic Spectrum

From Google Search


Electronic Warfare (EW) leverages the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) for both offensive and defensive actions, aiming to control or disrupt an adversary's use of electromagnetic signals. EW encompasses electronic attack, electronic protection, and electronic support. The spectrum is a critical resource for military operations, enabling communication, navigation, and sensing, and EW aims to protect and maintain access to it while denying it to the enemy.
Here's a more detailed look at the role of the electromagnetic spectrum in electronic warfare:
1. The Electromagnetic Spectrum (EMS):
The EMS is a continuous range of electromagnetic radiation, including radio waves, microwaves, infrared, visible light, ultraviolet, x-rays, and gamma rays.
It's a fundamental resource for military operations, used for communication, navigation, radar, and other critical functions.
2. Electronic Warfare (EW):
EW is any military action involving the use of electromagnetic and directed energy to control the EMS, or to attack the enemy.
It aims to protect friendly forces from the adverse effects of electromagnetic interference while simultaneously denying or degrading the enemy's use of the spectrum.
EW is divided into three main areas:
Electronic Attack (EA):Disrupting, denying, degrading, or destroying an adversary's use of the spectrum.
Electronic Protection (EP):Protecting friendly assets from the effects of enemy EW activities.
Electronic Support (ES):Sensing and monitoring the electromagnetic environment to gain information about enemy signals.
3. EW and the Electromagnetic Spectrum:
EW uses the EMS to:
Control the spectrum: Denying it to the enemy while ensuring friendly access.
Attack the enemy: Disrupting or destroying enemy communication, radar, and other systems.
Protect friendly assets: Using countermeasures to mitigate the effects of enemy EW attacks.
Examples of EW using the EMS:
Jamming: Overriding or interfering with enemy signals to disrupt their communication or radar systems.
Deception: Sending false signals to mislead the enemy.
Anti-radiation missiles:Targeting enemy radar systems.
Electronic protection systems:Using countermeasures to protect friendly assets from enemy EW attacks.
4. Importance of Spectrum Superiority:
Achieving and maintaining spectrum superiority is crucial for military success.
It enables control over communication, navigation, sensing, and other critical functions.
Denying the enemy access to the spectrum limits their ability to operate and command their forces.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Military’s Multi Domain Operations

From Google Search:

Pakistan's military employs multi-domain operations (MDO), a concept that involves integrating activities across land, air, sea, space, and cyber domains to achieve strategic goals. This approach is particularly relevant in countering terrorism and other asymmetric threats.
Key Aspects of Pakistan's MDO:
Integration:
MDO emphasizes the coordination and synchronization of activities across different military services, including the Pakistan Army, Pakistan Air Force, and Pakistan Navy, as well as paramilitary and special forces.
Jointness:
MDO requires joint planning, training, and execution of operations to ensure seamless integration and interoperability among different services.
Leveraging Technology:
Pakistan's MDO efforts incorporate advanced technology, including ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) capabilities, precision-guided strikes, and cyber warfare.
Operational Examples:
Pakistan's Operation Zarb-e-Azb and Operation Azm-e-Istehkam demonstrate the practical application of MDO in countering terrorism and militancy.
Challenges and Considerations:
Balancing MDO with Existing Structures:
Implementing MDO requires adjustments to existing organizational structures and a shift in mindset to prioritize jointness and integration.
Developing Capabilities:
Pakistan needs to further develop its capabilities in areas like cyber warfare, space-based operations, and advanced communication networks to fully realize the potential of MDO.
Adapting to Evolving Threats:
The security environment is constantly evolving, requiring Pakistan to adapt its MDO strategies and capabilities to address emerging threats.
In essence, Pakistan's MDO approach aims to enhance its military's ability to operate effectively across multiple domains, leverage technology, and coordinate its forces to achieve strategic objectives, particularly in the context of countering terrorism and other asymmetric threats.

[Riaz Haq]

Beijing's equipment gains battlefield recognition as Pakistan air force shoots down rival at 100km

by Thomas Harding, security and policy editor covering Westminster politics and European affairs

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/asia/2025/05/09/india-pakistan...

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At least one of the French-supplied advanced Rafale fighters was destroyed by a hypersonic PL-15 missile fired by the Pakistan Air Force from a distance of more than 100km on Wednesday, it has been reported.

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Another key point, also witnessed in the Russian-Ukraine war, is that electronic warfare is becoming vital to battlefield survival, with the Indian aircraft not apparently equipped with a key radar jammer unlike British and US jets.

China has invested heavily in what experts called “a gold standard” Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar capability, which allows it to miniaturise the system and put it inside a 200kg missile. By comparison Raytheon's Phantomstrike missile is miniaturised at 60kg.

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“We've now seen Chinese weapons in action and the big question mark over the Chinese military build-up has been is their stuff actually any good?” said Tim Ripley, editor of the Defence Eye website. “This suggests that it is.”

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Once fired the PL-15E is blasted by a rocket booster to hypersonic speed of Mach 5 (6,200kph) then guided onto target by the J-10C fighter’s radar before, in the closing stages, switching to its own Aesa radar.

It can then hone in with accuracy with a second burst of speed being injected about 10km from target making it extremely difficult to evade.


Radar jammers
However, if the Rafales had been fitted with Aesa, then this would likely have picked up the threat from some distance.

An Aesa radar would have potentially allowed the Rafale to jam the Pakistan fighter and the missile in its closing stages as it allows the jet to create of beam of focused electronic noise.

“It makes it really quick to neutralise a threat from one of these missiles,” said Mr Ripley.

However, even if equipped with Aesa it is questionable whether the Rafale could have dodged the missile, said a leading defence company aviation expert.

While the radar “would help” its defences, missiles such as the PL-15E are so potent that “once you've been locked on by one it's very difficult to get away from the kill zone because those missiles are so quick,” he added.

Furthermore, if the missile detects jamming then it has the ability to quickly jump to another frequency.


French blushes
What is certain is that the Rafale wreckage, found near the Indian city of Bathinda, will be “pored over by the French because they really will want to know what happened,” said Paul Beaver, a military aviation expert.

Further humiliation for the Indians, as well as the French, was that its air force operates a wing of 36 Rafale F3Rs, the warplane’s most advanced version.

The aviation company source called it a “big, big blow to the French” because Rafale had been “touted as a cheap alternative” to the RAF Typhoon and American fighters.

“While pilot training could be part of the problem if you don't have the best equipment, then you are at a disadvantage,” he added.

There is a suggestion that the shoot-downs could be attributed to pilot error although it also proves Pakistan’s aerial combat skills.

“This demonstrates that the Pakistan Air Force is as effective as everyone always thinks it is. It's smaller than India’s but makes up for it in training and motivation,” Mr Beaver said.

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Distant dogfights
The aerial battle also marks the start of a new era of aerial warfare in which the incident showed the “very interesting development in long range missile snipers,” said Mr Ripley.

“Long range air-to-air combat is now a big trend in aerial warfare,” he added. “On the back of this lots of the air forces will be busy trying to revamp their electronic warfare effectiveness trying to neutralise these missiles. It’s a big growth area.”

[Riaz Haq]

Umar Cheema
@UmarCheema1
Lt Gen. P R Shankar. “You’ve actually fought against Chinese equipment - with the people who can handle Chinese equipments better than the Chinese… Between Pakistan and China, I prefer to fight against China. Pakistanis are good at fighting.”

https://x.com/UmarCheema1/status/1921939576488157494