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Global Baby Bust: Pakistan is A Rare Bright Spot Among Most Populous Nations in Asia
There is an alarming rapid decline in fertility rates in both developed and developing nations, according to the United Nations. Here is how the Wall Street Journal describes it: "The world is at a startling demographic milestone. Sometime soon, the global fertility rate will drop below the point needed to keep the population constant. It may have already happened".
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| Total Fertility Rates in 12 Most Populous Nations. Source: Wall Street Journal |
Birth rates are low and fertility is rapidly dropping for women across all levels of income, education and labor-force participation around the world. Fertility is falling among Pakistani women too but more slowly than elsewhere in Asia. In fact, Pakistani women have the third highest fertility rate (3.47) among the 12 most populous nations of the world.
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| Pakistan Fertility Rate. Source: Data Commons |
Birth rates have economic, social and geopolitical consequences. "The falling birthrates come with huge implications for the way people live, how economies grow and the standings of the world’s superpowers", says the Wall Street Journal report titled "Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed".
No challenge is greater than the irreversible decline in female fertility rates that China, Japan, South Korea and the West are now experiencing. It's an existential threat. Nations and civilizations with sub-replacement fertility rates will eventually cease to exist. Automation can not replace young curious minds responsible for new ideas, innovation and social and economic vitality. Nor can automation replace consumers needed to buy and pay for products and services produced by robots.
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| Economic Growth Rate Till 2075. Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research |
Economic Impact of Slower Population Growth:
Daly and Gedminas argue that slowing population growth in the developed world is causing their economic growth to decelerate. At the same time, the economies of the developing countries are driven by their rising populations. Here are four key points made in the report:
1) Slower global potential growth, led by weaker population growth.
2) EM convergence remains intact, led by Asia’s powerhouses. Although real GDP growth has slowed in both developed and emerging economies, in relative terms EM growth continues to outstrip DM growth.
3) A decade of US exceptionalism that is unlikely to be repeated.
4) Less global inequality, more local inequality.
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| Goldman Sachs' Revised GDP Projections. Source: The Path to 2075 |
Demographic Dividend:
With rapidly aging populations and declining number of working age people in North America, Europe and East Asia, the demand for workers will increasingly be met by major labor exporting nations like Bangladesh, China, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia and Vietnam. Among these nations, Pakistan is the only major labor exporting country where the working age population is still rising faster than the birth rate.
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| Pakistan Population Youngest Among Major Asian Nations. Source: Nikkei Asia |
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| World Population 2022. Source: Visual Capitalist |
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| World Population 2050. Source: Visual Capitalist |
Over 10 million Pakistanis are currently working/living overseas, according to the Bureau of Emigration. Before the COVID19 pandemic hit in 2020, more than 600,000 Pakistanis left the country to work overseas in 2019. Nearly 700,000 Pakistanis have already migrated in this calendar year as of October, 2022. The average yearly outflow of Pakistani workers to OECD countries (mainly UK and US) and the Middle East was over half a million in the last decade.
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| Consumer Markets in 2030. Source: WEF |
World's 7th Largest Consumer Market:
Pakistan's share of the working age population (15-64 years) is growing as the country's birth rate declines, a phenomenon called demographic dividend. With its rising population of this working age group, Pakistan is projected by the World Economic Forum to become the world's 7th largest consumer market by 2030. Nearly 60 million Pakistanis will join the consumer class (consumers spending more than $11 per day) to raise the country's consumer market rank from 15 to 7 by 2030. WEF forecasts the world's top 10 consumer markets of 2030 to be as follows: China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, Japan, Egypt and Mexico. Global investors chasing bigger returns will almost certainly shift more of their attention and money to the biggest movers among the top 10 consumer markets, including Pakistan. Already, the year 2021 has been a banner year for investments in Pakistani technology startups.
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| Pakistan Demographics |
Riaz Haq
South India facing population challenges | Semafor
https://www.semafor.com/article/10/28/2024/south-india-facing-popul...
The world’s two most populous countries are now grappling with demographic challenges. India’s population growth rate has slowed, and the heads of two states in the country’s south (Kerala and Tamil Nadu)— where the fertility rate has sharply dropped — recently urged families to have more children. Leaders are concerned that slowing population growth in southern India could lead to less representation in the federal legislature.
Meanwhile, China’s well-documented birth rate troubles have seemingly gotten so severe that government workers are now calling up women and asking them to get pregnant, the South China Morning Post reported. The number of kindergartens in the country dropped by 5% in the last year, the second consecutive annual decline.
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Ageing South India and a census-delimitation 'trial balloon'
https://rohanvenkat.substack.com/p/ageing-south-india-and-a-census-...
Globally, India isn’t often thought about as a country with too few people. After all, it was only in 2023 that India overtook China as the world’s most populous country, with a staggering 1.4 billion people. Yet, headlines were made last week when N Chandrababu Naidu, chief minister of the South Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, announced that his government was considering legislation to that would incentivise couples to have more children.
Naidu’s comments in fact were a nice distillation of the 180-degree turn in the discourse around population in some parts of India, from the Malthusian idea of a population bomb prompting policies seeking to restrict families to just two children, to current worries about too few babies being born:
“We have repealed the earlier law barring people with more than two children from contesting local body elections… We will bring in a new law to make only those with more than two children eligible to contest.”
Where is this coming from?
Data for India’s Rukmini S explains it succinctly:
“There was certainly a time when India's population was growing very fast. In the three decades after Independence, India's population had doubled. But from the 1980s, population growth began to slow down. India's population growth rate is estimated to have fallen below the world average by the early 2020s and the gap is expected to grow.”
This is felt particularly acutely in South India, which, for a combination of reasons, saw fertility rates fall much faster in the decades since India began active family planning programmes than North India.
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India will likely get old before it grows rich - The Economic Times
https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/indicators/india-will-like...
By the middle of this century, India will have 1.6 billion people. That’s when the country’s population will finally start to decline, ending up at perhaps a billion by 2100. While that is still around 250 million more people than China will have then, every time India’s population is projected, its peak seems to come earlier and crest lower.
Oct 28