Pak-Saudi Joint Defense: Is Pakistan A Major Power or Bit Player in the Middle East?

Sep 27

The recently signed “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan states that “any aggression against either country will be considered an aggression against both”. It is being seen by some geopolitical analysts as the beginning of an "Islamic NATO". Others, such as Indian-American analyst Shadanand Dhume, have dismissed Pakistan as no more than a "bit player" in the Middle East. Where does the truth lie?

Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif(L) with Saudi Crown Prince MBS

Is Pakistan really capable of defending Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf nations against external aggression such as the recent Israeli attack on Qatar? Can Pakistan provide a nuclear umbrella to deter aggression against its friends in the Middle East? Or is it too weak economically and unstable politically to provide security guarantees to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) nations like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates? Let's try and understand the context which has brought about this bilateral security arrangement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The oil-rich Gulf Arab nations have long relied on the West for their security. But, on September 9, 2025, when Israel launched an airstrike on a residential compound in Doha, Qatar, the U.S. and its western allies did nothing to defend the Qataris. It’s notable that this attack occurred on a U.S. ally which hosts the largest American military base in the region. The fact that the United States did nothing to stop this Israeli aggression has shaken the confidence of the G.C.C. nations in the willingness of the United States to defend them, particularly from any Israeli attacks. Israel has attacked almost every country in the Middle East, including Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen in the last 12 months. Israel has gone rogue. It is carrying out a genocide in Gaza with impunity. It is being aided and abetted by the West in its crimes against humanity. It appears to have the license from the United States to do so.

Given these realities, who can the Gulf Arabs turn to for security? Which Muslim nation has Saudi Arabia had the closest military ties with for decades? Which country with nuclear weapons is most likely to deter attacks on the Saudis from nuclear-armed adversaries like Israel? Who else but nuclear-armed Pakistan!

Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio

There has been no official reaction to the Pakistani-Saudi Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement so far. However, judging from the recent cordial meeting of the Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir with President Trump at the White House, it appears that Team Trump does not object to it.

In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a credible military power in terms of both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The Pakistani military's strong performance was recognized in May this year as it responded to what India called its "Operation Sindoor". The country has developed a range of short and medium-range missiles capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Its longest range missile Shaheen 3 can hit deep inside India and Israel. Last year, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Pakistan after accusing it of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland.

In January this year at an Islamabad event, Ambassador Munir Akram articulated potential rationales for developing a missile of increased range, according to the US Congressional Research Service. A missile exceeding the Shaheen-III range may be necessary to reach Indian missiles deployed on bases in the Indian Ocean located "well beyond" the Shaheen-III range, he said, adding that India has sought to establish access to such bases. Akram also posited that Pakistan may need to develop an indigenous space launch vehicle or an anti-satellite weapon; ballistic missile programs can aid the development of such platforms.

Biden Administration Accused Pakistan of Developing Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

Yes, Pakistan does have a weak economy. But that is primarily because of significant underinvestment over decades. That’s where the oil-rich Gulf Arab nations can help. They have been investing trillions of dollars in the West in the hope of getting security from them. They have huge sovereign investment funds which can invest in Pakistan. Even if they invest a fraction of what they have invested in the U.S., the positive effects on Pakistan’s economy will be immense.

As to Pakistan’s political instability, it can be managed by a hybrid system of government where the politicians and the generals reach an understanding to benefit both as well as the country. It will also serve Saudi interests to use its considerable influence in Pakistan to bring political and economic stability to the country.

Given today's geopolitical realities, Pakistan is the best choice for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations to deter aggression from Israel and other aggressors in the region. Gulf Arab nations have generally welcomed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, viewing it as a move that strengthens regional security amid concerns about US commitments. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has also welcomed it, describing it as "a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system". In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, he said: “Iran welcomes the defensive pact between the two brotherly Muslim countries, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, as a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system with the cooperation of the Muslim states of West Asia in the political security and defense domains”.

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Riaz Haq

GO Telecommunications Group has announced the creation of GO AI Hub Pakistan, a centre for AI and digital innovation, during a meeting with Pakistan's IT Minister, Shaza Fatima Khawaja, in Riyadh. The hub aims to foster collaboration in digital infrastructure, AI, and human capital development between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

Set to launch in October 2025, the hub will promote knowledge exchange, capacity building, and joint digital solutions. The minister praised GO's contributions to AI, cybersecurity, and data-driven technologies, aligning with Pakistan’s "Digital Nation Vision" to become a regional tech leader.

Oct 7
Riaz Haq

AI Overview
Recent analyses suggest the September 2025 Pakistan-Saudi defense pact significantly involves China, given Beijing's deep military and economic ties with Islamabad and strengthening relations with Riyadh. The deal reflects a multipolar shift in which Saudi Arabia is diversifying its security partnerships beyond the United States.
China's involvement
While China is not a formal party to the pact, its extensive cooperation with Pakistan and evolving relationship with Saudi Arabia bring it into the equation in several key ways:
Military supply chain: China is Pakistan's primary arms supplier, accounting for 81% of its imports from 2020 to 2024. Pakistan's military, which trains Saudi forces, operates sophisticated Chinese equipment, including the J-35 stealth fighter and HQ-19 air defense systems offered in a recent arms deal.
Defense industrial ties: Saudi Arabia has a long-term goal of localizing defense production under its Vision 2030 plan. Since Pakistan has co-produced defense systems with China, Saudi Arabia could invest as a financier or a buyer in joint Pakistan-China defense platforms.
Nuclear energy and proliferation: The pact has intensified concerns that China could enable Saudi nuclear ambitions. Though China denies it, Beijing has a history of assisting Saudi Arabia's missile program and recently signed a memorandum of understanding on nuclear energy security.
Economic influence: As a top trading partner and oil customer for both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, China gains increased economic influence from the pact. For instance, Saudi Arabia could purchase Chinese nuclear reactors to free up more oil for export.
Strategic hedging: By formalizing a defense partnership with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is diversifying its strategic relationships and creating more independence from the U.S.. This aligns with Riyadh's increasingly multi-aligned foreign policy, which includes stronger ties with China.
Implications and future considerations
Shifting regional dynamics: The pact is seen by some as a silent victory for Beijing, expanding its influence in the Middle East. China views these diversified partnerships positively, which could expand its arms sales and influence across the region.
Impact on the U.S.: The agreement highlights Saudi Arabia's growing wariness of U.S. reliability as a security guarantor. Some U.S. analysts have argued that Washington should tolerate this arrangement, as it allows regional actors to hedge against rivals without America having to spend more.
Multipolarity: Overall, the pact is part of a broader trend of multipolarity, in which countries like Saudi Arabia are balancing their traditional alliances with new partnerships. It further cements China as a significant player in the Middle East.

Oct 8
Riaz Haq

Pakistan, Qatar pledge to translate shared trade, investment goals into ‘tangible outcomes’

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2620049/pakistan

The statement comes after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with Qatar’s minister of commerce and industry in Islamabad
Sharif invites Qatari investors to explore new avenues of bilateral collaboration in energy, agriculture, food security, IT and tourism

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and Qatar have reaffirmed their commitment to deepening economic cooperation and translating shared trade and investment goals into “tangible outcomes,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office said on Friday.

The statement came after Sharif’s meeting with Qatari Commerce and Industry Minister Sheikh Faisal bin Thani bin Faisal Al-Thani, who is on a visit to Pakistan to co-chair the 6th session of Pakistan-Qatar Joint Ministerial Commission (JMC).

During the meeting, PM Sharif expressed satisfaction at the positive trajectory of Pakistan-Qatar relations, anchored in shared faith, values and mutual respect, appreciating Doha’s role as an important partner and an influential mediator.

The prime minister underscored the importance of enhancing bilateral trade and investment cooperation between the two countries, emphasizing opportunities in energy, agriculture, food security, information technology, tourism and infrastructure development.

“He highlighted Pakistan’s investor-friendly policies and invited Qatari investors to explore new avenues of collaboration,” Sharif’s office said.

“Both sides agreed to continue close coordination to translate shared understandings into tangible outcomes, including greater facilitation for business-to-business linkages and investment projects.”

The development came a day after Pakistan and Qatar have signed a protocol that commits both nations to realize Doha’s $3 billion investment in Pakistan’s key sectors, the Pakistani economic affairs ministry said.

In 2022, the Qatari emir’s office had said that the Qatar Investment Authority aims to invest $3 billion in Pakistan to support the South Asian nation’s cash-strapped economy, focusing on Pakistan’s transport, civil aviation, education, health, culture, media, communications, information technology and labor sectors.

The agreement was signed between Pakistan’s Commerce Minister Jam Kamal Khan and his Qatari counterpart, Sheikh Faisal bin Thani bin Faisal Al Thani, during the JMC meeting, the economic affairs ministry said.

Qatar will enhance cooperation in Pakistan’s public transport system including rail, bus and metro networks and support the adoption of electric vehicles in the country, according to the protocol. Pakistan and Qatar’s aviation authorities will meet early next year to further strengthen cooperation, it added. The protocol also included a memorandum of understanding between Pakistan and Qatar’s education ministries to enhance technical skills development.

Pakistan shares cordial ties with Qatar rooted in economic cooperation, defense, shared values, faith and culture. Qatar hosts a large Pakistani workforce and this month facilitated dialogue that resulted in a ceasefire with Afghanistan after days of skirmishes along their border.

During his meeting with PM Sharif, the Qatari commerce minister reaffirmed Doha’s commitment to further deepen economic engagement with Pakistan, according to the Pakistan PM’s office.

“He noted that the 6th session of the JMC provided an important platform to review existing cooperation and identify new initiatives to advance mutually beneficial partnerships,” Sharif’s office said.

“The prime minister conveyed Pakistan’s deep appreciation for Qatar’s consistent support on regional and global issues and reiterated Pakistan’s desire to strengthen collaboration at regional and multilateral fora.”

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Pak-Saudi Joint Defense: Is Pakistan A Major Power or Bit Player in the Middle East?

Riaz Haq

Riaz Haq

Riaz Haq