US-India Ties: Does Trump Have a Grand Strategy?

Aug 31

Since the dawn of the 21st century, the US strategy has been to woo India and to build it up as a counterweight to rising China in the Indo-Pacific region. Most beltway analysts agree with this policy. However, the current Trump administration has taken significant actions, such as the imposition of 50% tariffs on India's exports to the US, that appear to defy this conventional wisdom widely shared in the West. Does President Trump have a grand strategy guiding these actions? George Friedman, the founder of Geopolitical Futures, believes the answer is Yes.

George Friedman

George Friedman is an American futurologist, political scientist, and writer. He writes about international relations. He is the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. Prior to founding Geopolitical Futures, he was chairman of the publishing company Stratfor

In a recent podcast, Friedman said "India is not an essential country from the American standpoint". "They (Indians) are a useful ally, but precisely not indispensable and in fact, not really able to give us what we want", he added. "They do participate in the quad, but their naval force is not significantly needed. The quad being an alliance basically against China at sea. And simultaneously, it was discovered that their economic capacity is far below what we need. So it was not that they were dispensable, but at the same time, it was not something that we had to take into account greatly".

Getting tough with the Indians also allowed the US to "signal to the Chinese that we’re not going to be going to war with them, which they worried about India and to the Russians that we really are going to impose tariffs".

In answer to a question as to whether the Indians might feel the US is using them as "a tool as it tries to reach deals with Russia and China", Friedman said: "this is the problem of weaker nations trying to play games with very strong nations. They get used".

What Friedman has articulated runs counter to a quarter century of the US policy of boosting India to check China. Even some of India's friends in Washington are starting to acknowledge that India is no match to China. Ashley Tellis, a strongly pro-India analyst in the United States, recently wrote an essay for Foreign Affairs magazine titled "India's Great Power Delusions". Here is an excerpt from it:

"Although India has grown in economic strength over the last two decades, it is not growing fast enough to balance China, let alone the United States, even in the long term. It will become a great power, in terms of relative GDP, by midcentury, but not a superpower. In military terms, it is the most significant conventional power in South Asia, but here, too, its advantages over its local rival are not enormous: in fighting in May, Pakistan used Chinese-supplied defense systems to shoot down Indian aircraft. With China on one side and an adversarial Pakistan on the other, India must always fear the prospect of an unpalatable two-front war. Meanwhile, at home, the country is shedding one of its main sources of strength—its liberal democracy—by embracing Hindu nationalism. This evolution could undermine India’s rise by intensifying communal tensions and exacerbating problems with its neighbors, forcing it to redirect security resources inward to the detriment of outward power projection. The country’s illiberal pivot further undermines the rules-based international order that has served it so well".

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Trump Created Chance for Pakistan's Diplomatic Tsunami

by Robert Manning

Stimson Center Washington DC

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/23/pakistan-diplomacy-india-trump...

That led to a heated phone call with an irate Modi, who had invested heavily in what he believed was a personal relationship with Trump. Modi argued that the cease-fire was achieved by India and Pakistan’s efforts, not the president’s, incensing Trump. At the same time, Pakistani officials lavished praise on Trump for the cease-fire, welcomed him to mediate in Kashmir, and nominated him for the Nobel Prize.

Not coincidentally, Trump then imposed 50 percent tariffs on India for buying discounted Russian oil (a policy that the United States had previously encouraged and Trump and senior U.S. officials began trash-talking India. In late July, Trump said that India, which grew at 6.5 percent in 2024, was a”dead economy”, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent repeatedly attacked India for “profiteering” from Russian oil.

The bitterness toward India created chances for Pakistan. That helps explain a two-hour lunch between Pakistani army chief Asim Munir and Trump in June as well as several Trump meetings with Sharif at the United Nations, the White House, and at the recent Gaza peace conference in Egypt.

At the same time, it pushed New Delhi, usually wary of China’s rise, closer to Beijing. Modi, flaunting his strategic autonomy, was in China last month clasping hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin and making plans to boost economic ties.

Pakistan also got a highly favorable trade package out of Trump. Sharif dangled two prizes that the White House is obsessed with: U.S. rights to develop what Trump says are massive oil reserves (Pakistan imports 80 percent of its oil) and rights to critical minerals, for which a U.S. firm has announced a $500 million investment. Remarkably, Islamabad retains its status as a “major non-NATO ally” of the United States while thickening ties to all three major powers simultaneously.

But these triumphs may not be sustainable. For starters, Pakistan’s shiny promises of a crypto deal, oil, and critical minerals to the United States may be mostly a mirage. With regard to oil, there may be no massive reserves. ExxonMobil and other oil firms have explored Pakistani oil, come up dry, and left, and even Pakistani energy officials doubt such large-scale commercially recoverable resources.

5 hours ago
Riaz Haq

Trump Created Chance for Pakistan's Diplomatic Tsunami

by Robert Manning

Stimson Center Washington DC

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/23/pakistan-diplomacy-india-trump...

There is no question that Pakistan has substantial critical minerals, but most are located in Balochistan, the site of intensifying terrorist attacks on government targets that have given China pause. U.S. mining operations will be problematic at best. Then there is Pakistan’s adroit multialignment with Moscow and Beijing. How will that fare as great-power competition intensifies? What will be the fate of U.S.-Pakistani warmth if some of these vulnerabilities fail to realize the promise of the new entente?

It is certainly possible that the souring with India could be a Trump bargaining tactic intended to gain leverage for a trade deal still quietly being negotiated. Trump appeared to extend an olive branch recently, plaintively saying that he “will always be friends with Modi” and that the United States and India share “a very special relationship.” And Trump said that during a phone call on Oct. 15, Modi pledged to stop buying Russian oil, though India denied it.

None of the fundamentals of the strategic logic driving U.S. policy toward India have changed: Strategic competition with China continues to drive Washington’s national security and industrial policies. This will be true however the current trade war—and a possible meeting between Trump and Xi—turns out. The idea of India as a counterweight to China and an economic and technology partner has not lost its allure for Washington, though Indian anger and resentment at the humiliating snubs will linger.

Pakistan’s diplomacy raises a host of questions about whether South Asia’s geopolitics are more fluid than they had previously seemed or whether polarization in the region is continuing. How will Iran, which publicly welcomed the defense pact, react to these new circumstances? Will the accord bolster or erode the fledgling Saudi-Iranian detente?

And not least, how will China respond to the new dynamics? So far, it has doubled downon its ties to Pakistan while welcoming chances to make nice with New Delhi. For all the promise of Pakistan’s diplomacy, India and China have not resolved underlying territorial and other disputes, India-Pakistan tensions remain high, and the Middle East, is—well—still the scorpion-and-the-frog Middle East, where endless cycles of revenge and missed opportunities are endemic.

But whether it lasts or not, Pakistan’s diplomatic offensive deserves due credit. It has bolstered its strategic posture, diversifying both its support and commitments while injecting more uncertainty into the geopolitics of South and Southwest Asia.

5 hours ago
Riaz Haq

‘No wars with Pakistan’, Trump tells Modi amid trade dialogue - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

https://www.dawn.com/news/1950675

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump has stated that he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a phone call where they discussed having “no wars with Pakistan,” amid ongoing negotiations for a trade deal aimed at mending strained ties between the two countries, Dawn.com reported Relations between the US and India plummeted in August when Trump raised tariffs on Indian exports to 50 per cent and US officials accused India of financing Russia’s war in Ukraine by buying Moscow’s discounted oil.

However, participating in a Diwali celebration at the White House on Tuesday, President Trump said he had a “great conversation” with Modi over the phone.

“We talked about trade — we talked about a lot of things, but mostly the world of trade, he’s very interested in that. Although we did talk a little while ago about let’s have no wars with Pakistan,” he said.

5 hours ago

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US-India Ties: Does Trump Have a Grand Strategy?

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