American Prof John Mearsheimer on International Geopolitics in South Asia

Professor John Mearsheimer, a renowned international relations expert known for his theory of "offensive realism", has recently spoken to India's CNN-News18 about the impact of US-China competition on geopolitics in South Asia. Sharing his thoughts in interviews on India-Pakistan conflict after the Pahalgam attack, he said: "There is really no military solution to this (Kashmir) problem. The only way this can be solved once and for all is through a political solution that both sides find acceptable". 

Professor John Mearsheimer on India-Pakistan Conflict

Professor John Mearsheimer is a highly respected professor of political science at the University of Chicago. Here's how he introduces himself on his personal website:  "I am the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor in the Political Science Department at the University of Chicago, where I have taught since 1982. Above all else, I am an international relations theorist. More specifically, I am a realist, which means that I believe that the great powers dominate the international system, and they constantly engage in security competition with each other, which sometimes leads to war". 

He has said that neither China nor the US want a full-scale war between India and Pakistan that could escalate into a nuclear war. However, it is in China's interest to "see significant tensions between India and Pakistan to get India to devote a lot of its strategic thinking and resources against Pakistan" rather than on China. The US, on the other hand, wants India to focus all its energies on countering China. 

Talking about the recent "Operation Sindoor" launched by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi against Pakistan, Mearsheimer said it will not deter Pakistan. "By Operation Sindoor, India has responded like it has in the past. Don't think India wants a major war with Pakistan, it can't dominate on the lower or even the middle rungs of the escalation ladder", he said. 

On Chinese involvement in South Asia, Mearsheimer said: "China-Pakistan relations are quite good. The Chinese are providing excellent weaponry to Pakistan and will provide even better weapons in future".  "I don’t think China wants an India-Pakistan war but it wants to see significant tensions between India and Pakistan to get India to devote a lot of its strategic thinking and resources against Pakistan", he added. 

Talking about the US interest in South Asia, he said: "When it comes to countering China, India is the most important country for the US in South Asia. But the US also wants to maintain good relations with Pakistan to try to peel it away from China". 

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  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan regards India as an existential threat: US defence intelligence annual report - The Economic Times


    https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/pakistan-regards-india-as-...

    "Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernisation effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to offset India’s conventional military advantage," the report metions.

    "Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and nuclear command and control. Pakistan almost certainly procures WMD applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries," it added.

    Further, the report says Pakistan's top priorities will likely remain cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbors.


    "Despite Pakistan’s daily operations during the past year, militants killed more than 2,500 people in Pakistan in 2024," it added

    US also said that Pakistan is the "primary recipient" of China’s economic and military generosity and foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan's armed forces are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China

    "Pakistan primarily is a recipient of China’s economic and military largesse, and Pakistani forces conduct multiple combined military exercises every year with China’s PLA, including a new air exercise completed in November 2024," the report said.

    "Foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programs are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China, and sometimes are transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. However, terrorist attacks targeting Chinese workers who support China Pakistan Economic Corridor projects has emerged as a point of friction between the countries; seven Chinese nationals were killed in Pakistan in 2024," it added.

  • Riaz Haq

    Sushant Singh
    @SushantSin
    So this is being done without any backchannel or official talks with Pakistan, or via a third party interlocutor like the US, when Modi claims that there has been no ceasefire and the military operation is still on.

    https://x.com/SushantSin/status/1926512146721980920

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    Pause in India-Pak military action, Army works on plan to ‘rebalance’ troops at border | India News - The Indian Express

    https://indianexpress.com/article/india/to-dial-down-army-works-on-...

    A fortnight into the pause of military action in the wake of the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, a proposed plan for “rebalancing of troops” is being discussed within the military to avoid any fresh escalation at the borders, The Indian Express has learned.

    This even as Operation Sindoor is on pause and all alerts remain at their heightened levels.

    While Indian and Pak armies are focusing on multiple confidence-building measures, plans for de-escalating troops and equipment from the borders within the next fortnight are being considered.

    Sources said Pakistan, which carried out major reinforcements of troops and equipment over the last few weeks, will also pull them back to pre-April locations.

    Incidentally, India had not ordered large-scale mobilisation or deployment of offensive formations over the last month. Limited equipment and corresponding troops, which had been moved from their permanent locations to operational ones, are now planning to go back to their regular locations.

    During Operation Sindoor, the density of troops along the borders had increased but that was more because of curtailing leave and less essential movement. However, sources said, these restrictions have now been lifted. Even short-term courses, which were to be cancelled temporarily, will now continue as per slated schedules.

    According to sources, after the first two days following the ceasefire agreement, no aerial violations by Pakistani drones were reported though the occasional stray drones were sighted in Jammu and Kashmir.

    They added that there are orders in place to avoid firing on them without appropriate clearances, even as any ceasefire violations at the LoC will be responded to by the troops.

    As Prime Minister Narendra Modi had flagged, in his address to the nation, Operation Sindoor is only on pause. This would imply that the military would continue to remain at a heightened state of alertness and operational readiness, while maintaining a strong defensive posture throughout.

    There has been no official statement from the government on whether there have been DGMO-level talks on the de-escalation after May 12.

    On May 12, DGMO Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai spoke to his Pakistani counterpart Major General Kashif Abdullah – their second conversation since they agreed to stop all military action—during which it was agreed that both sides would consider immediate measures to ensure troop reduction from the borders and forward areas.

    Sources said that stopping aerial violations was also discussed in the meeting.

    An Army statement had also mentioned that issues related to continuing the commitment that both sides must not fire a single shot or initiate any aggressive and inimical action against each other were discussed in the talks.

    The Indian Express had earlier reported that within days following May 12, both sides were scheduled to exchange plans on the modalities of de-escalation of troops and equipment deployed along the borders.



    Two days after the May 12 talks, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar had claimed that Pakistan had agreed to extend the ceasefire with India until May 18 following DGMO-level talks between the two sides.

    Without commenting on whether the two sides spoke, the Indian Army said both sides will continue the confidence-building measures to reduce the alertness level. It clarified that there is no expiry date to the understanding reached between the two militaries on May 10 to “stop all firing and military action from land, air and sea.”

  • Riaz Haq

    Does the Chinese defense industry benefits from Pakistan military's performance against India?

    AI Overview

    Yes, the recent clashes between India and Pakistan have provided a significant boost to the Chinese defense industry. Pakistan's use of Chinese-made fighter jets and missiles in the conflict has raised awareness of their capabilities and sparked interest in Chinese military technology globally.
    Here's why this is the case:

    Battle-testing and marketing:

    The conflict has served as a proxy battle-testing ground for Chinese military hardware, showcasing its potential to a global audience. This has effectively advertised Chinese weapons to a wider market, potentially increasing sales.

    National pride and heightened perceptions:

    The reported success of Chinese-made weapons in the conflict has boosted national pride in China and has also heightened global perceptions of Chinese military prowess and ingenuity.

    Intelligence gathering:

    The conflict provides China with valuable intelligence on its own weapons systems as they are used in a real-world scenario by Pakistan.

    Increased demand and potential sales:

    The perceived success of Chinese weapons could lead to increased demand for these systems from other countries, particularly those seeking more affordable and effective military technology.

    Shift in perceptions of military technology:

    The conflict has challenged the long-standing belief in the superiority of Western military technology, particularly in the context of affordability and effectiveness.

    Strategic partnership:

    China and Pakistan have a strong strategic partnership, with China being Pakistan's primary arms supplier. This close relationship allows for easier access to Chinese military technology and expertise.

    Increased stock value:

    The positive performance of Chinese-made weapons in the conflict has led to a surge in the stock prices of Chinese defense companies.