The Economist

*The Global Gold Boom’s $150 billion Final Frontier: Pakistan*

Oct 9th 2025

https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/10/09/the-global-gold-booms-150...

In late September Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister, and Field Marshal Asim Munir, its military head, had a meeting with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office.

It was an unusual gathering.

No media were present, nor was a statement issued.

The only evidence are pictures released by the White House.

In one, Field Marshal Munir shows a casket of mineral samples to the president.

It was the latest sign of the unexpected bonhomie between Mr Trump and the field marshal.

They also had a private lunch together at the White House in June, a month after a four-day military spat between Pakistan and India.

But can a burgeoning relationship between the two leaders really rest on the promise of Pakistani minerals?

At first glance, the future looks bright for Pakistan’s reserves.

The main source of the minerals in question—the Reko Diq mine in Balochistan province—may be one of the world’s largest untapped reserves of copper and gold, minerals critical for the energy transition.

Once operational, the mine is estimated to generate about $150bn in revenue over four decades.

Since 1993 various international companies have tried to make the mine work.

Financial, legal and political concerns stopped them.

But now Barrick, a Canadian mining company, is in a consortium with three Pakistani state-owned enterprises and the Balochistan provincial government.

It is due to break ground this year.

The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank recently approved money for the project; Mr Trump also wants in.

America’s development-finance institutions are mulling one-off loans of up to $1bn to the mine.

Dig a little deeper, however, and it becomes clear the project is laden with risks.

It is close to Afghanistan and Iran, two unreliable neighbours.

The project could be disrupted by the activities of Baloch separatist terrorists in eastern Balochistan.

The Institute of Economics & Peace, an Australian think-tank, ranks Pakistan the second country in the world most afflicted by terrorism, after Burkina Faso.

Another problem concerns how the copper and gold concentrates will be shipped out of Pakistan after extraction.

There appears to be an implicit agreement between Pakistan, Barrick and their prospective lenders to keep the mine beyond Chinese influence.

At the moment, the plan is to use a faraway port near Karachi, not the nearby Chinese-built Gwadar port.

But the journey to Karachi is a long one.

The minerals would have to travel 1,330km (820 miles) by rail, much of which is in a dreadful condition.

For years, China had promised a financing package of $7bn to upgrade the railway. But its government has quietly pulled back in recent years.

To make up the shortfall, Pakistan’s government recently approved a financing package of $390m, without specifying where the money will come from.

Similarly, the Asian Development Bank is in advanced talks to provide a one-off loan of $2bn to the government (in addition to one of $410m for the mine).

And according to a recent report in the Financial Times, unofficial plans apparently shared before the meeting last month would create a new port costing $1.2bn, next to Gwadar, with some American financial support. (Trump officials say that they did not discuss the proposal.)

And it is unclear how Pakistan’s move to help the West diversify away from China would sit with the government in Beijing.

But even were it to be displeased, China has few levers to pull.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/10/09/the-global-gold-booms-150...

For years it followed a playbook of stabilisation through construction under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship of the Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure programme. But it is slowly backing away from doling out largesse on big projects such as roads, mines and ports.

It now talks of CPEC 2.0, focused on knowledge, sustainability and technology.

Meanwhile, Pakistan is running out of time.

The mine is not due to begin production until 2028, which is the last year of Mr Trump’s presidency.

The window of opportunity created by a global frenzy for minerals, the renaissance of America-Pakistan relations and an upsurge of commercial opportunism is narrow.

If the mine does not materialise now, the promise of economic development in Pakistan may remain buried—along with the gold. ■

Reko Diq copper project to generate $2.8b in exports in first-year: FinMin

https://dunyanews.tv/en/Business/912937-reko-diq-copper-project-to-...

WASHINGTON, DC (Web Desk) - Pakistan’s mining sector is poised for major expansion, with Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb projecting that the first year of commercial operations at the Reko Diq copper and gold project could generate $2.8 billion in copper exports, a 10 per cent increase in the country’s overall export base.

Speaking to the media at the conclusion of his weeklong US visit for the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, Aurangzeb said the project is only the beginning, with additional mines and concessions expected to come online in the coming years.

“This is just the start because there are other mines and concessions coming through,” he said.

Aurangzeb highlighted that the Reko Diq project is attracting US investment, with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) leading the syndication and US EXIM Bank expected to participate once the US government shutdown concludes.

Islamabad’s long-term vision includes smelting and value addition, which will enhance Pakistan’s industrial output.

“That’s not going to happen overnight, but where we are headed has huge upside for Pakistan,” he said.