#Pakistan PM #ImranKhan faces a no-confidence Vote. At stake in Sunday’s vote is thus the #geopolitical direction of one of world’s nine #nuclear powers, at a time when war in #Ukraine has sent global tensions soaring and brought alliances under scrutiny. https://ti.me/3K1w4yr

Pakistan’s prime minister, Imran Khan, is on the verge of being ousted in a vote of no confidence after more than three years in power.

Accusing the 69-year-old former cricket star of economic mismanagement and rights abuses, the opposition has spent weeks persuading Khan’s coalition partners to defect and has seemingly done enough ahead of the vote on Apr. 3. In a raucous session of the National Assembly on Thursday, lawmakers appeared to have formed a bloc of 172—sufficient to topple the government—and confidently took group photographs of what they regarded as a watershed moment.

While the problem of corruption in Pakistani society is well documented, much of the political hostility toward Khan stems from his use of the issue to quash rivals, detaining them on trumped up charges. Marriyum Aurangzeb, information secretary for the opposition Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN), accuses Khan of using a “false corruption narrative” to consolidate his grip on power.

When Khan took office, “Everybody in our party was thrown in jail, every day we used to wait for the news of who was next,” Aurangzeb says. “He went after the media, he went after business people, he went after the opposition, every party, and he thought that by putting everyone in jail he would be successful.”

Dr. Nida Kirmani, associate professor of sociology at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, confirms that while Khan’s anti-graft posturing taps into “legitimate public frustration,” its scope is limited because it is used to attack political opponents. “This narrative has been a trope of populist leaders to gain support, but their analysis and diagnosis is superficial,” she tells TIME.

Read More: What Pakistan Gains from the Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan

The reverberations of Khan’s likely removal will be felt much further afield than Islamabad, however. A strident critic of the West, the prime minister has made anti-Americanism a part of his political persona, infamously accusing the U.S., in 2020, of “martyring” Osama bin Laden. After the fall of Kabul in August last year, he endorsed the Taliban takeover and remarked that the people of Afghanistan, in defeating the U.S., had “broken the shackles of slavery.”

More recently, Khan arrived in Moscow for an official visit on the day that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, drawing attention to the Kremlin’s evolving relationship with Islamabad, which has adopted a neutral position in the conflict.

Pakistan’s opposition, on the other hand, has deep misgivings about Khan’s collision course with Washington and can be expected to reset the relationship if Khan is ousted. “The need of the hour is to repair our relations with America diplomatically,” says Sartaj Aziz, who was adviser to the prime minister on foreign affairs from 2013 to 2017.

At stake in Sunday’s vote is thus the geopolitical direction of one of the world’s nine nuclear powers, at a time when war in Ukraine has sent global tensions soaring and brought alliances under scrutiny. Ahsan Iqbal, who served as interior minister before Khan took office, says the incumbent has badly miscalculated over the conflict in Europe.

“He should have at least said that we do not support this invasion, we want international forums to play their role, and Russia should show restraint and negotiate a settlement,” Iqbal tells TIME. “But what this government chose [was] not to take any position and I think that was a big blunder.”

In Q&A, #US Assistant Secretary of State for #SouthAsia Donald Lu neither confirmed nor denied having a threatening conversation with #Pakistan's Ambassador Asad Majeed Khan. When pressed, Lu said: "That’s all I have for you on that question". #ImranKhan https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/22-will-show-india-us-tie...

Q: Let me move to the rest of the region and start with Pakistan. Imran Khan seems to suggest that you had a conversation with the Pakistani ambassador in the US and told him that if Imran Khan survives the no-confidence motion, Pakistan is in trouble and the US won’t forgive Pakistan. Any response?

A: We are following developments in Pakistan and we respect and support Pakistan’s constitutional process and the rule of law.

Q: Did you have such a conversation?

A: That’s all I have for you on that question.

Pakistan’s exports in March surged to $2.773 billion at a growth rate of 17.3 percent compared to $2.365 billion observed in the corresponding period last year.

https://propakistani.pk/2022/04/01/pakistans-exports-register-17-3-...


Conversely, provisional data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) indicates that on a month-on-month basis, exports have dipped by 2 percent to $2.77 billion in March 2022, compared to $2.82 billion in the previous month.

The Adviser to the Prime Minister on Commerce and Investment, Abdul Razak Dawood tweeted that exports during July-March fiscal year 2021-2022 soared by 25 percent to $23.332 billion as compared to $18.688 billion in the corresponding period last year, indicating an increase of $4.644 billion.

Dawood congratulated the exporters for maintaining the momentum of exports, adding that “our exports are in line with our targets & we expect to achieve our yearly target”.

As per SBP figures, Pakistan’s current account deficit was $545 million in February, which was less than the $2.5 billion record loss in January but over 16 times larger than the same month last year.

The trade deficit widened by 82.2 percent during the first eight months (July-February) of the current fiscal year 2021-22 and reached $31.959 billion compared to $17.535 billion during the same period of 2020-21.

Meher Bokhari
@meherbokhari
Unemployed population rate across South Asia for the 2020-2022 timeline:

: 8.0%
: 6.3%
: 5.4%
: 5.0%
: 5.9%
: 4.7%
: 4.3%

Source: WorldBank
Data: 2020-2022

https://twitter.com/meherbokhari/status/1510358148325859328?s=20&am...

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS?locations=IN-PK

Donald Lu, the US Asst Sec of State for South Asia, has been in the news lately for threatening "regime change" in Pakistan. He appears to buy Modi's narrative about Kashmir being about "cross-border terrorism".


Cross-border terrorism down, Kashmir moving normalcy, Modi has a lot of support and authority in India: US official Donald Lu at Senate hearing | South Asia Monitor


https://www.southasiamonitor.org/south-asia-abroad/cross-border-ter...


Democratic Party Senator Chris Murphy, who chaired the hearing, wondered if Modi's electoral performance was due to “organic popularity of the ruling party or because of tactics that would not be the norm in the US". Murphy heads the Subcommittee on Near East, South Asia, Central Asia, and Counterterrorism that held the hearing on US relations with India.

Lu also said that cross-border terrorism originating from Pakistan has gone down over the past two years. He said that in meetings with Pakistani Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa Pakistan took “credit for closing off that border for militant groups”.

They have “sealed the border in a way we haven't seen before” and that was partly because of the actions by Financial Action Task Force (FATF) which can impose punitive financial sanctions for supporting terrorism.

Asked by Murphy about Kashmir, Lu said, “We do see the Indian government taking some steps to restore normalcy. Prime Minister had outreach to a range of Kashmiri Indian politicians in June. We've seen visits by cabinet ministers to Kashmir”.

“We saw the rest restoration of 4G connections for cell phones which is the way most people would get their information. In the Kashmir valley,” he added.

At the same time, he said that assembly elections have not been held there and some prominent journalists in the Kashmir Valley have been detained.

https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/53170/did-the-us-assis...

According to Pakistani PM Imran Khan, on 7th March 2022, Pakistani diplomats were summoned to the foreign office of "a Western country" and were told that

they were not satisfied with Pakistan's Russia policy.
PM Imran Khan visited Russia on his own accord which is not acceptable to them.
a no-confidence move is coming against the PM.
if the PM IK survives the no-confidence move, Pakistan will face a grim future.
if the PM IK is gone, all of Pakistan's wrong moves would be forgiven.
He also said that these threats are present in the black and white form of an official communique.

On 31st March 2022, the official "threat" document was presented in front of the national security council of Pakistan and decided to issue a demarche against the US role. On the same day, the Pakistani PM received a report from the Pakistani intelligence agency that dozens of Pakistani members of parliaments, journalists, and media house owners had been meeting various US officials from the US embassy in Pakistan from October 2021. On 2nd April 2022, a senior US diplomat in Pakistan was summoned by the Foreign Office of Pakistan and registered a protest. On 3rd March 2022, PM IK revealed that it was Donald Lu who threatened Pakistani officials on the record.

The USA publicly denied any role in the ouster of PM Imran Khan. However, Donald Lu was questioned by a journalist from the Hindustan Times if Imran Khan's allegations of conveying threatening messages to the Pak ambassador about a no-confidence motion to avoid serious consequences for Pakistan, Donald Lu passed on without a denial. This is a video clip posted on Twitter, where Donald Lu was seen grilled by senator Van Hollen, and it showed that, indeed, he had been in contact with Pakistani officials regarding not voting against Russia.

By the way, the USA has a proven track record of orchestrating the de-seating of various heads of states/governments e.g. Mohammad Mosaddegh of Iran, Salvador Ajende of Chile, and so on. The USA also has a proven history of interfering with Pakistan's foreign policies and domestic politics.

My question is, Did the US Assistant secretary of state Donald Lu threaten Pakistan?

1
The events are probably too recent for anyone to reach an answer strong enough proofs for S.SE. One possible subquestion is whether any version of the alledged "official communique" including the supposed "threats" has been divulgated. –
Evargalo
2 days ago
2
Pakistan (or rather PM Khan) says they have evidence but doesn't want to show it publicly. The US claims that never happened. I'm not sure how you expect users here to solve this conundrum. I'm pretty sure this site is not run by the CIA as you implied elsewhere, so it's highly doubtful anyone here will answer with classified information. And even if they do do that, how would be able to tell it apart from disinformation? –
Fizz
2 days ago
@Evargalo, whether any version of the alleged "official communique" including the supposed "threats" has been divulgated. --- The problem, in this case, is, any diplomatic dossier is protected by Pakistan's national secrecy act. Divulging such documents will automatically push the PM to a lifelong ban in Pakistani politics. –
user366312
2 days ago
1
The top-voted answer on the Q about Arafat says that we don't know. But at least the answers there have some material (medical reports) that could be discussed in factual terms. Insofar I'm failing to see how that can be done for your Q. It seems to be just based on claims and rebuttals whether something was written. –
Fizz
2 days ago

Snap National Poll – National ASSEMBLY DISSOLUTION and Views of Pakistani Public

https://gallup.com.pk/post/33081

Key findings:

1) Widespread support for dissolution of National Assembly in Pakistan

Respondents were asked ‘ PM has dissolved the national assembly and called for fresh elections. Do you Support or are you against this’ To this question a wide majority 68% say they support and 32% say they oppose PM Imran Khan’s move.

2) Majority don’t believe in US Conspiracy to remove Imran Khan, although split exists along party lines.Significant majority 64% responded to this question and say that Imran Khan was being ousted because of inflation and not because of a foreign conspiracy.

3) Public Opinion split over performance of Imran Khan

Respondents were asked ‘ Imran Khan ruled for 3.5 years. Are you satisfied with the performance of their government or not satisfied?
To this question ‘ 54% said they are dissatisfied and 46% said they are satisfied’

4) Anti Americanism: Only 1 in 3 consider US to be a friend

Respondents were asked Some people think that America is a friend of Pakistan, and some people think it is an enemy. what is your opinion?
Almost 2 in 3 Pakistanis(72%) think US to be an enemy. Anti Americanism was highest among PTI Supporters (80% thought America was an enemy) and lowest among PML-N voters (65%)

Riaz Haq
@haqsmusings

Gallup #Pakistan Poll: 68% of respondents support #imrankhanPTI's decision to dissolve the National Assembly & call early elections. https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Snap-National-P...

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1511759488147107846?s=20&...

Pansota
@Pansota1
Old video of
@JoeBiden

@POTUS
from December 2020 which speaks volumes about his mindset. It reinforces the case of conspiracy against the
@ImranKhanPTI
. This can be exhibited as supporting evidence in the Supreme Court if the court wants to dilate upon the issue of conspiracy.

https://twitter.com/Pansota1/status/1510862324667715587?s=20&t=...

Riaz Haq
@haqsmusings

Gallup #Pakistan Poll: #PTI enjoys overwhelming support (95%) across the country. Only 5% oppose it. #ImranKhan https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Snap-National-P...

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1511803735336361985?s=20&...

World Bank warns of debt crisis for developing nations
Developing economies were hit hardest by the global economic recession brought by the pandemic. A looming debt crisis could make things much worse, according to a new report.

https://www.dw.com/en/world-bank-warns-of-debt-crisis-for-developin....

Some of the world's poorest nations face a serious debt crisis which will greatly complicate efforts to recover from the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

More than 70 low-income nations are facing extra debt repayments of almost $11 billion (€9.7 billion) this year, an increase of 45% from 2020 after a sharp rise in borrowing last year.

However, a new report from the World Bank says that is only one strand of the debt problem faced by developing economies. It says that the issue of "hidden" or nontransparent debt — for example, slow or faulty detection of financial risks such as nonperforming loans — is hitting access to financing for low-income households and small businesses.

An equitable recovery?
In its annual World Development Report, the World Bank typically focuses on one specific aspect of global economic development in middle- and low-income countries.

Its 2022 report, titled "Finance For An Equitable Recovery," focuses on the issue of debt. It argues that, in addition to the challenge of mounting sovereign debt, unstable financing systems in developing economies make them more vulnerable to other issues, such as rising inflation and interest rates.

"The economic crisis of inflation and higher interest rates will spread due to financial fragility," says World Bank President David Malpass in the report. "Tighter global financial conditions and shallow domestic debt markets in many developing countries are crowding out private investment and dampening the recovery."

Of particular concern to the World Bank, which specializes in providing loans and grants to low-income countries, is the issue of hidden debt risks.

The pandemic exposed challenges such as lack of transparency in reporting nonperforming loans and delayed management of distressed assets, the report says.

It highlights the fact that, despite the major fall in incomes and business revenues caused by the pandemic, the overall share of nonperforming loans did not increase in many countries. "This may be due to forbearance policies and relaxed accounting standards that are masking significant hidden risks that will become apparent only as support policies are withdrawn," the report warns.

World Bank Report: "FINANCE FOR AN EQUITABLE RECOVERY"

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/36883/97...

The (Pakistan) government’s Kamyab Pakistan Programme, rolled
out in September 2021 to provide subsidized
or interest-free loans to SMEs and agricultural
workers, could also have mixed impacts on the
stability and future growth potential of the
microfinance sector by distorting the price of
credit and increasing the moral hazard of strategic future default

------------

As the economic crisis arising from the COVID-19
pandemic unfolded in Pakistan, MFI operations
became severely restricted, and some MFIs were
forced to close temporarily. Many MFIs acted
quickly, however, to initiate business continuity
plans to ensure the health and safety of staff
and clients and work around lockdowns. Digital financial services and branchless banking
surged. In the first year of the pandemic, the
number of active branchless banking accounts
increased by 53.7 percent, from 27.7 million to
42.6 million.a
Meanwhile, from March 2020 to
March 2021 regulators enacted a debt moratorium to ease the financial crunch on borrowers
caused by lockdowns and the decline in economic activity. In addition, nonbank microfinance companies (NBMFCs) were shielded
by federal guidelines asking commercial banks
and other lenders to MFIs, such as the Pakistan


Microfinance Investment Company, to reschedule wholesale lending to the sector. Anecdotal
reports also suggest that handshake agreements
with other MFI lenders to extend repayment
terms, as well as the continued availability of
wholesale funding for creditworthy MFIs, helped
buoy the sector.
Overall, these measures appear to have
averted a liquidity crisis among Pakistan’s MFIs
in the short term, particularly those regulated,
deposit-taking, and digitally enabled.b
Indeed, during 2020 loans totaling approximately $635 million in the sector were deferred or rescheduled.
Some MFIs even experienced an increase in
business. Microfinance banks (MFBs) saw a net
increase in deposits in 2020 of 29 percent, and
gross loan portfolios increased from $1.97 billion
to $2.02 billion during 2020.c
However, results
were mixed across the sector. The largest MFBs

saw growth continue, while the smaller players,
including the vast majority of NBMFCs, saw
declines in their portfolios and asset quality. By
the end of 2020, many Pakistani MFIs had temporarily suspended their lending operations, and
the demand for credit declined slightly as people suffered income losses.d

SBP
@StateBank_Pak
1/2 Latest SBP figures show strong growth in low-cost housing loans to individuals #MeraPakistanMeraGhar. Till 11Apr22, banks received applications of Rs409bn, of which Rs180bn has been approved & Rs66bn disbursed. A year ago total applications stood at Rs57bn &approvals at 16bn.

https://twitter.com/StateBank_Pak/status/1514581716907794436?s=20&a...

2/2 Banks have almost doubled finance for builders and developers to Rs404bn as of 31Mar22 from Rs204bn a year earlier, supporting the construction sector and growth in the economy. See PR:

https://www.sbp.org.pk/press/2022/Pr1-14-Apr-2022.pdf

SBP
@StateBank_Pak
Workers’ remittances rose to their highest level in history at $2.8 billion in March 22. Cumulatively, remittances have risen to $23 billion during the first 9 months of FY22, up 7.1% over the same period last year.

https://twitter.com/StateBank_Pak/status/1514450543011409923?s=20&a...

https://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/Homeremit.pdf

The bank borrowing of the private sector has surged by 170 percent to Rs. 1,198 billion from Rs. 443 billion during the first nine months (July-March) of the current fiscal year 2021-22.

https://propakistani.pk/2022/04/14/private-sector-borrowing-surges-...


According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the private sector has obtained loans worth Rs. 1,198 billion from the banking sector during the first nine months of the current fiscal year, which shows a positive trend in the private sector. The total debt stock of the private sector from local banks amounted to Rs. 8,827.38 billion up to 31 March 2022.


Some economic experts believe that this increase was possible after reducing government borrowing from the private banking sector for bridging the budget deficit.

They believed that government heavily depends on external loans for bridging the fiscal deficit under the new policy. According to the Finance Ministry, the government has borrowed Rs. 1,025.6 billion external loans and Rs. 346 billion from domestic loans, including banking and non-banking side for bridging the budget deficit during the first half of the country’s fiscal year.

The government had obtained Rs. 454.4 billion external loans and Rs. 684 billion domestic loans, including banking and non-banking loans for bridging the budget deficit to Rs. 1,137 billion during the first half (July-Dec) of the last fiscal year 2020-21.

The data shows that the government has provided a cushion for the private sector for meeting the requirement of liquidity to run the business.


The SBP says that the bank borrowing of the private sector from conventional banking branches swelled by 261 percent to Rs. 791.56 billion from Rs. 219 billion during the first nine months of the current fiscal year compared to the same period of the last fiscal year. The debt stock of the private sector from the Conventional Banking Sector has reached Rs. 6,476.67 billion by March 2022.

The private sector has also borrowed Rs. 160.4 billion from Islamic Banks of the country during the first nine months of the current fiscal year. It had obtained loans worth Rs. 91 billion from the Islamic banks during the first nine months of the last fiscal year. The total loans of the private sector from different Islamic banks in the country amount to Rs. 1090.7 billion so far.


The loans from Islamic Banking Branches of Conventional Banks have also surged by 84.6 percent from Rs. 133.4 billion to Rs. 246.3 billion during the first nine months of the current fiscal year as compared to the same period of the last fiscal year.

According to the SBP report, the Credit to Public Sectors Enterprises (PSEs) has been also increased by Rs. 4 billion during the first nine months of the current fiscal year. The Public Sector Enterprises had retired Rs. 24.9 billion to the banking sector during the first nine months of the last fiscal year.

The credit to Non-Banking Financial Institutions (NBFIs) was also increased by Rs. 5.7 billion during the first nine months of the current fiscal year. The total debt stock from NBFIs has swelled to Rs. 78.5 billion so far.

Stephen Stapczynski
@SStapczynski
Pakistan bought a whole bunch of LNG at a record low price in July 2020

But no one predicted prices would rise so sharply and so quickly in 18 months. The entire industry was caught flat footed by the global gas supply crunch

https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1515592399124279305?s=20&am...

-------------

Stephen Stapczynski
@SStapczynski
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif blamed the previous government for the fuel crunch. He said they should have bought more LNG when prices were $3/mmbtu

(That’s not how it works. Prices were that low ~2 years ago. No one buys spot that far in advance)

https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1515590037668126721?s=20&am...

Pakistan’s Political Crisis Has Been an Energy Crisis, Too
Successive governments have failed to back renewables, cutting the country off from the cheapest source of indigenous energy. The new prime minister could change all that.


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-17/pakistan-s-po...


The political crisis that pitched Pakistan’s prime minister Imran Khan from office wasn’t just about the failure of his anti-corruption agenda and mismanagement of an economy where inflation running at nearly 13% has driven months of opposition protests. It’s also, as with so many of Pakistan’s political crises, about energy and exchange rates.

For decades, heavy dependence on imported energy has constrained growth. To break out of its chronic pattern of stagnation, Pakistan needs more power for its industrial, household and transport sectors. Whenever that has happened in the past, however, a rising bill for imported fossil fuels has prompted one of its periodic balance-of-payments crises. The International Monetary Fund bailout that’s widely expected within months would be Pakistan’s 19th since the early 1970s.

Pakistani financial platform Abhi Pvt. raised funds at a $90 million valuation within a year after introducing its business, the latest startup to benefit from investors’ increasing interest in the South Asian country.

The Karachi-based company’s $17 million Series A round was led by Speedinvest, marking the venture capital firm’s first bet in Pakistan, Abhi Chief Executive Officer Omair Ansari said in an interview. Global Ventures, VentureSouq, VEF, Sturgeon Capital, Rallycap, FJ Labs, Fatima Gobi, Sarmayacar and i2i Ventures also participated.

Pakistan is attracting investors eager to back startups in one of the last large untapped markets. Companies raised more than $350 million last year in the country, greater than the amount over the previous six years combined. Among the firms making their first-time investments in the country recently are Kleiner Perkins, Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group.



Startup Fever Grips Pakistan, World’s Last Big Untapped Nation

The lending startup offers an alternative to people asking their employer, family or friends for cash to make ends meet until their next salary. It also gives small- and medium-sized companies financing for working capital requirements. The company has now become cash-flow positive.

“This is the first time you’re able to get this access in the country,” Ansari said in an interview. “As people and smaller companies get this access then it becomes something they want to keep using.”

The app takes less than 30 seconds and two clicks for a registered user to access the funds, with a flat 2% transaction fee. The funds are automatically deducted from the next paycheck.

Co-founder Ansari previously oversaw two funds at Morgan Stanley, and was looking at investment opportunities in consumer companies and fintech in emerging and frontier markets. He helped with early-stage investments in fintech companies from China to Brazil. He was also an adviser to VEF, which focuses on fintech in frontier and emerging markets.



The company has increased users to 650,000 from about 200,000 since a previous round in Novemberand also on-boarded over 150 companies. Individuals are accessing 15% to 20% of their monthly wage through the platform, Ansari said.

“Abhi has the potential to change millions of lives across MENA and South Asia,” said Stefan Klestil, general partner at Speedinvest. “It’s no wonder they have been able to establish themselves as one of the fastest-growing Pakistani startups.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-19/pakistan-startup...

Muzzammil Aslam
@MuzzammilAslam3
Finally, IMF has admitted that Pakistan posted 5.6% GDP in 2021, lowest CAD in last 11 years 0.6% of GDP & inflation at 8.9%. The IMF admission clearly indicates its flawed methodology of predicting economic variables. Also reminder to all news paper, IMF endorsed 5.6%.

https://twitter.com/MuzzammilAslam3/status/1516535103027281921?s=20...

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/PAK

According to the World Bank’s Pakistan Development Update, released today, while economic activity maintained its momentum during July-December 2021, high demand pressures and rising global commodity prices led to double-digit inflation and a sharp rise in the import bill during this period. These developments have had an adverse impact on the rupee. Moreover, long-standing structural weaknesses of the economy including low investment, low exports, and low productivity growth pose risks to a sustained recovery.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/04/19/long-sta....

The report highlights that with economic recovery and improved labor market conditions, poverty—measured at the lower middle-income class poverty line of $3.20 Purchasing Power Parity 2011 per day—declined from 37 percent in FY20 to 34 percent in FY21. However, rising food and energy prices are expected to decrease the real purchasing power of households, disproportionally affecting poor and vulnerable households that spend a larger share of their budget on these items.

“Pakistan’s economic recovery after the COVID-19 crisis indicates that the country has enormous potential to overcome challenging economic situations,” said Najy Benhassine, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan. “However, sustaining the economic recovery requires addressing long-standing structural weaknesses of the economy and boosting private sector investment, exports and productivity.”

On the back of high base affects and recent monetary tightening, real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4.3 and 4.0 percent in FY22 and FY23, respectively. Thereafter, economic growth is projected to slightly recover to 4.2 percent in FY24, provided that structural reforms to support fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability are implemented rapidly, and that global inflationary pressures dissipate.

However, the macroeconomic risks remain very high. These include tighter global financing conditions, potential further increases in world energy prices, and the possible risk of a return of stringent COVID-19-related mobility restrictions. Domestically, political uncertainty and policy reform slippages can also lead to protracted macroeconomic imbalances.

“To mitigate immediate macroeconomic risks, the Government should focus on containing the fiscal deficit at a level which ensures debt sustainability, closely coordinate fiscal and monetary policy, and retain exchange rate flexibility,” said Zehra Aslam, the lead author of the report.

The special section of the report focuses on financial intermediation and how to increase financing to the real economy by addressing structural impediments impacting the demand and supply of finance, including in credit markets. These impediments include extensive government borrowing from the financial sector that crowds out supply of credit to the private sector and deepens the sovereign-bank nexus. Intermediation is further limited by low domestic savings, and underdeveloped capital markets. Overall financial inclusion remains low, but good progress has been made to enhance it through ongoing digital innovations. Resolving these constraints in the medium to long term requires concerted efforts by the government, regulators, and other stakeholders.

https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/410d0506bba8afc6fd9d9541148bfe...

P A K I S T A N
DEVELOPMENT UPDATE
April 2022

https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/410d0506bba8afc6fd9d9541148bfe...


Supported by higher growth and the recovery in the manufacturing and services sectors,
the poverty headcount, measured at the lower-middle-income class line of US$3.20 PPP
2011 per day, is estimated to have declined from 37.0 percent in FY20 to 34.0 percent in
FY21.

Rising inflation has disproportionally affected poor and vulnerable households that spend
a relatively larger share of their budget on food and energy. More specifically, the poor
spend around 50 percent of their total consumption on food items, whereas this share is
only 43 percent among the non-poor. In response, the Government inaugurated a
targeted commodity subsidy program, Ehsaas Rashan Riayat, in February 2022 to
compensate eligible households for higher prices.22

The Government undertook timely policy measures to mitigate the adverse
socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)
lowered the policy rate and announced supportive measures for the financial sector to
help businesses and the Government expanded the national cash transfer program on an
emergency basis.2 These measures contributed to economic growth rebounding to 5.6
percent in FY21.3 However, long-standing structural weaknesses of the economy,
particularly consumption-led growth, low private investment rates, and weak exports have
constrained productivity growth and pose risks to a sustained recovery. Aggregate
demand pressures have built up, in part due to previously accommodative fiscal and
monetary policies, contributing to double-digit inflation and a sharp rise in the import bill
with record-high trade deficits in H1 FY22 (Jul–Dec 2021). These have diminished the
real purchasing power of households and weighed on the exchange rate and the country’s
limited external buffers.
b. Real Sector
Growth
Economic
momentum
continued, but
business confidence
has declined
During H1 FY22, y-o-y growth in car production and sales, petroleum sales, and foreign
remittance inflows indicate continued momentum in economic activity and private
consumption. Similarly, investment is also expected to have increased with a strong
growth in machinery imports and government development expenditure. Government
consumption is also expected to have expanded given the 16.0 percent increase in
consolidated current expenditure in H1 FY22. Activity in the external sector was also
vibrant, with import and export values growing by 54.4 percent and 27.3 percent,
respectively. While the flow of bank loans to private businesses grew in this period, it was
led by an increase in working capital or short-term financing, particularly as businesses
faced higher input costs, as opposed to long-term or fixed investment financing. The
business confidence survey index also declined from a pandemic high of 64.0 in June
2021 to 53.4 in December 2021, indicating lower optimism in the business sector
regarding the economic outlook.4
Favorable weather
conditions are
expected to support
higher overall crop
production
In agriculture, estimates suggest that rice, sugarcane, and maize production will be higher
this year, reflecting better weather conditions.5 With regards to agriculture inputs,
agriculture credit disbursement grew 3.9 percent, and farm tractor sales increased by 21.2
percent in H1 FY22.6 Similarly, 97.7 percent of the sowing target for wheat has been met.7
----
Large-scale
industrial production
growth strengthened
The LSM index, a key indicator for industrial activity, increased by 7.5 percent y-o-y
during H1 FY22 compared to a muted growth of 1.5 percent in H1 FY21. Growth was
broad-based with 16 out of the 22 sectors recording higher production. Only

Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
Monthly Technology exports reached at all-time during Mar’22, up by 24% YoY and 29% MoM to $ 259mn.

During 9MFY22, technology recorded exports worth $ 1.9bn marking a 29% YoY jump.

https://twitter.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1517809966501236737?s=20&am...

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Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
Highest ever total exports in the month of Mar'22, up by 18% YoY | 9% MoM to USD 3.74bn.

https://twitter.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1517797547171094528?s=20&am...

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ICT exports surge to near $2 billion in 9M FY22

https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/23-Apr-2022/ict-exports-surge-to-ne...

there has been a robust growth of IT and IT-enabled (ITeS) remittances in the past five years. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan (2020-2021), the compound annual growth rate for IT and related services reached 18.85 per cent, the highest growth rate of any industry in the region. In addition, micro enterprises, independent consultants and freelancers contributed around $500 million to IT and ITeS exports while the annual domestic revenue exceeded $1 billion.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1686067

According to the survey, from July to February of the outgoing fiscal year, IT export remittances in sectors including telecommunication and computer IT services surged to $1.29bn at a growth rate of 41.39pc, compared to $918m during the corresponding period in FY20. Enabling government policies have contributed to this remarkable growth. These include numerous sustainable development and accelerated digitisation projects, incentives to bolster growth, including 100pc equity ownership and specialised foreign currency (FCY) accounts for IT/ITeS firms and freelancers to fulfil operational demands, thus addressing a long-standing concern of IT companies regarding the easy inflow/outflow of foreign currency.

Now IT/ITeS companies and freelancers can keep 100pc of remittances received through proper banking channels in their FCY accounts without being forced to convert them to rupees. Moreover, outward transfers from FCY accounts are also unrestricted for Pakistan Software Export Board-registered IT companies and freelancers.

However, the revelation that the IT sector carries tremendous potential is not new, though the industry remains unexploited. Google recognised Pakistan as far back as 2018 for rapidly turning into a “digital-first country”. At present, Pakistan has the fourth-largest growing freelancers’ market globally. The country is known for software development, business process outsourcing (BPO) and freelancing of IT-related services.

Pakistan LSM (large scale manufacturing) sector grows 10.4% in Jul 2021-Mar 2022


https://tribune.com.pk/story/2356514/lsm-sector-grows-104-in-jul-mar


The economic advisory wing of the finance ministry (now under PMLN), which till March (under PTI) had been predicting around 5% overall growth rate, has suddenly cut the forecast to 4% in its latest publication.

Contrary to that, the Planning Commission expects the growth rate in the range of 5% to 5.4%, which will be higher than the last PTI government’s target for the current fiscal year.

-----------------------

Big industries grew 10.4% during the first nine months of current fiscal year on the back of a low base effect and better output in sugar and apparel sectors, increasing prospects of achieving around 5% overall economic growth in this fiscal year.

Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) industries recorded 10.4% growth during July-March of the ongoing fiscal year over the same period a year ago, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Friday.

PBS data suggested that the increase largely came from the food sector, which has over one-tenth weight in the LSM index and apparel wear, which has 6.1% weight.

The other factor that contributed to the healthy momentum was the low base, as the index was at 126 in March last year, which jumped to nearly 154 this year.

The past year’s trend suggests that the LSM will post higher growth in April and May as well due to the low base effect.

The 10.4% growth during the first nine months of current fiscal year has strengthened the chances of achieving around 5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in this fiscal year ending in June.

The increase in sugarcane and sugar production will offset the 1.5 million tons’ decline in wheat production.

The economic advisory wing of the finance ministry, which till March had been predicting around 5% overall growth rate, has suddenly cut the forecast to 4% in its latest publication.

Contrary to that, the Planning Commission expects the growth rate in the range of 5% to 5.4%, which will be higher than the last PTI government’s target for the current fiscal year.

The National Accounts Committee – the body that works out the growth estimates on the basis of input from the provincial and federal government departments – will meet by the mid of next week to approve the provisional growth rate for fiscal year 2021-22.

The new government has decided to revive the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, which may also result in fiscal and monetary tightening to bring economic stability. This could hurt growth prospects for fiscal year 2022-23.

The previous government had targeted 4.8% economic growth for the current fiscal year. The IMF and other financial institutions have projected Pakistan’s economic growth in the range of 4% to 4.3%, which is a decent rate but nearly half of what is required to create jobs for all new entrants in the market.

The central bank has injected hundreds of billions of rupees into the economy, which provided a fresh impetus to the economic growth but fueled inflation in the country.

The LSM data is collected from three different sources. Data collected by the Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) showed that the output of 36 items increased on an average by 2% in the first nine months of current fiscal year.

The Ministry of Industries, which monitors 11 products, reported a 10.3% increase in output during the July-March period. Provincial Bureaus of Statistics reported 12.1% growth in the output of 76 goods, stated the PBS.

On a yearly basis, the LSM sector showed 26.6% growth in March over the same month of last year. However, half of the increase in March output was because of increased production of sugar by the mills.

The industries that posted growth in the first nine months of current fiscal year included textile, which registered 3.2% growth.

The textile industry is the largest sector in the LSM index, having 18.2% weight. The production of apparel wear increased 34% during the first nine months of FY22.

PTI
@PTIofficial
Pakistan's economy showed robust growth across all sectors in FY2021-22; GDP grew by 6.0% while per capita income increased by 17.2% in PKR terms. Compiled by
@syed_maazuddin
, this shows how
@ImranKhanPTI
’s policies were beneficial for Pakistan.

https://twitter.com/PTIofficial/status/1528042187337998347?s=20&...

GDP growth estimated at 5.97pc for FY 2021-22
By Ghulam Abbas

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/05/18/gdp-growth-estimated...


Pakistan has estimated the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the range of approximately 6 percent for the current fiscal year with the major contributions of industrial and services sectors.

Unlike the IMF projection of a 4 percent GDP growth rate for Pakistan, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz led government has estimated a 5.97 percent provisional GDP growth rate for the year 2021-22.

The 105th meeting of the National Accounts Committee to review the final, revised and provisional estimates of GDP for the years 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 respectively was held on Wednesday under the chair of Secretary, MoPD&SI.

The provisional GDP growth rate for the year 2021-22 is estimated at 5.97% as broad-based growth was witnessed in all sectors of the economy.

Article continues after this advertisement
The growth of agricultural, industrial and services sectors is 4.40%, 7.19% and 6.19% respectively. Similarly, the growth of important crops during this year is 7.24%.

The growth in production of important crops namely Cotton, Rice, Sugarcane and Maize are estimated at 17.9%, 10.7%, 9.4% and 19.0% respectively.

The cotton crop increased from 7.1 million bales reported last year to 8.3 million bales; Rice production increased from 8.4 million tons to 9.3 million tons; Sugarcane production increased from 81.0 million tons to 88.7 million tons; Maize production increased from 8.4 million tons to 10.6 million tons respectively, whole Wheat production decreased from 27.5 million tons to 26.4 million tons. Other crops showed growth of 5.44% mainly because of an increase in the production of pulses, vegetables, fodder, oilseeds and fruits. The livestock sector is showing a growth of 3.26%. The growth of forestry is 3.13% and fishing is at 0.35%.

The overall industrial sector shows an increase of 7.19%. The mining and quarrying sector has decreased by 4.47% due to a decline in the production of other minerals as well as a decline in exploration costs. The Large Scale Manufacturing industry is driven primarily by QIM data (from July 2021 to March 2022) which shows an increase of 10.4%. Major contributors to this growth are Food (11.67%), Tobacco (16.7%), Textile (3.19%), Wearing Apparel (33.95%), Wood Products (157.5%), Chemicals (7.79%), Iron & Steel Products (16.55%), Automobiles (54.10%), Furniture (301.83%) and other manufacturing (37.83%). The electricity, gas and water industry shows a growth of 7.86% mainly due to an increase in subsidies in 2021-22. The value-added in the construction industry, mainly driven by construction-related expenditures by industries, has registered a modest growth of 3.14% mainly due to an increase in general government spending.

The services sector shows a growth of 6.19%. The wholesale and Retail Trade industry grew by 10.04%. It is dependent on the output of agriculture, manufacturing and imports. The growth in trade value-added relating to agriculture, manufacturing and imports stands at 3.99%, 9.82% and 19.93% respectively. Transportation & Storage industry has increased by 5.42% due to an increase in gross value addition of railways (41.85%), air transport (26.56%), road transport (4.99%) and storage. Accommodation and food services activities have increased by 4.07%. Similarly, Information and communication increased by 11.9% due to improvements in telecommunication, computer programming, consultancy and related activities.

GDP growth estimated at 5.97pc for FY 2021-22
By Ghulam Abbas

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/05/18/gdp-growth-estimated...


The finance and insurance industry shows an overall increase of 4.93% mainly due to an increase in deposits and loans. Real estate activities grew by 3.7% while public administration and social security (general government) activities posted negative growth of 1.23% due to high deflators. Education has witnessed a growth of 8.65% due to public sector expenditure. Human health and social work activities also increased by 2.25% due to general government expenditures. The provisional growth in other private services is 3.76%.

Overall, the GDP of the country at current market prices has reached Rs.66.949 trillion in 2021-22 which has resulted in an increase in per capita income from Rs.268,223 in 2020-21 to Rs.314,353 in 2021-22 besides the volume of the economy in dollars in 2021-22 stands at $383 billion.

According to details, the meeting also updated the provisional GDP estimates for the year 2020-21 and revised GDP estimates for the year 2019-20 presented in the 104th meeting of the NAC held in January 2022 on the basis of the latest available data.

The final growth rate of GDP for the year 2019-20 has been estimated at -0.94% which was -1.0% in the revised estimates. The revised growth rate of GDP for the year 2020-21 is 5.74% which was provisionally estimated at 5.57%.

The crop sub-sector has improved from 5.92% to 5.96%. The other crops have improved from provisional growth of 8.08% to 8.27% in revised estimates. The growth of the industrial sector in the revised estimates is 7.81% which was 7.79% in the provisional estimates while the growth of the services sector has improved from 5.7% to 6.0%.

Controversy about Chief Economist’s resignation:

Earlier on Wednesday, it emerged that Chief Economist Planning commission Dr Ahmad Zubair resigned from the position owing to exerting pressure from the high ups of planning and finance ministries on GDP numbers.

Sources on the condition of anonymity said that the Minister for planning and the minister of State for finance Ayesha Ghous Pasha have asked the relevant people in the planning commission to sit with the principal economic advisor Finance ministry on growth numbers with contending that GDP growth would be around 4% in the current fiscal year.

When the official of the planning commission stated that they had made a presentation to the previous minister for planning that as per the statistics of production data of various sectors indicates that GDP growth would be around 5.5 to 6 percent upon this minister of state for finance said that there was a shortfall in the projected projection of wheat crop. The official replied that even with this shortfall of 0.1 million metric tons, the production of sugarcane, rice and cotton as well as tomatoes was considerably higher.

Officials further stated that it would not be possible to show less growth on the basis of data available to all the stakeholders therefore such an effort would affect the compromise of PBS data.

Later on, a letter issued by Ahmad Zubair stated that there is news trending on social and electronic media that I resigned from the position of Chief Economist, planning Commission on account of manipulation attempts concerning FY22 GDP growth estimates. I would like to state that PBS has the mandate to estimate National accounts and that the M/PD&SI has no role in matters related to estimating GDP growth.

Our total consumption of wheat and atta is about 125kg per capita per year. Our per person per day calorie intake has risen from about 2,078 in 1949-50 to 2,400 in 2001-02 and 2,580 in 2020-21

By Riaz Riazuddin former deputy governor of the State Bank of Pakistan.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1659441/consumption-habits-inflation

As households move to upper-income brackets, the share of spending on food consumption falls. This is known as Engel’s law. Empirical proof of this relationship is visible in the falling share of food from about 48pc in 2001-02 for the average household. This is an obvious indication that the real incomes of households have risen steadily since then, and inflation has not eaten up the entire rise in nominal incomes. Inflation seldom outpaces the rise in nominal incomes.

Coming back to eating habits, our main food spending is on milk. Of the total spending on food, about 25pc was spent on milk (fresh, packed and dry) in 2018-19, up from nearly 17pc in 2001-01. This is a good sign as milk is the most nourishing of all food items. This behaviour (largest spending on milk) holds worldwide. The direct consumption of milk by our households was about seven kilograms per month, or 84kg per year. Total milk consumption per capita is much higher because we also eat ice cream, halwa, jalebi, gulab jamun and whatnot bought from the market. The milk used in them is consumed indirectly. Our total per person per year consumption of milk was 168kg in 2018-19. This has risen from about 150kg in 2000-01. It was 107kg in 1949-50 showing considerable improvement since then.

Since milk is the single largest contributor in expenditure, its contribution to inflation should be very high. Thanks to milk price behaviour, it is seldom in the news as opposed to sugar and wheat, whose price trend, besides hurting the poor is also exploited for gaining political mileage. According to PBS, milk prices have risen from Rs82.50 per litre in October 2018 to Rs104.32 in October 2021. This is a three-year rise of 26.4pc, or per annum rise of 8.1pc. Another blessing related to milk is that the year-to-year variation in its prices is much lower than that of other food items. The three-year rise in CPI is about 30pc, or an average of 9.7pc per year till last month. Clearly, milk prices have contributed to containing inflation to a single digit during this period.

Next to milk is wheat and atta which constitute about 11.2pc of the monthly food expenditure — less than half of milk. Wheat and atta are our staple food and their direct consumption by the average household is 7kg per capita (84kg per capita per year). As we also eat naan from the tandoors, bread from bakeries etc, our indirect consumption of wheat and atta is 41kg per capita. Our total consumption of wheat and atta is about 125kg per capita per year. Our per person per day calorie intake has risen from about 2,078 in 1949-50 to 2,400 in 2001-02 and 2,580 in 2020-21. The per capita per day protein intake in grams increased from 63 to 67 to about 75 during these years. Does this indicate better health? To answer this, let us look at how we devour ghee and sugar. Also remember that each person requires a minimum of 2,100 calories and 60g of protein per day.

Undoubtedly, ghee, cooking oil and sugar have a special place in our culture. We are familiar with Urdu idioms mentioning ghee and shakkar. Two relate to our eating habits. We greet good news by saying ‘Aap kay munh may ghee shakkar’, which literally means that may your mouth be filled with ghee and sugar. We envy the fortune of others by saying ‘Panchon oonglian ghee mei’ (all five fingers immersed in ghee, or having the best of both worlds). These sayings reflect not only our eating trends, but also the inflation burden of the rising prices of these three items — ghee, cooking oil and sugar. Recall any wedding dinner. Ghee is floating in our plates.

Kaushik Basu
@kaushikcbasu
One picture that sums up India’s biggest problem: youth unemployment. Sadly this is getting little policy attention. It can do lasting damage to the economy. We must shift focus from politics to correcting this.

https://twitter.com/kaushikcbasu/status/1530375519186915329?s=20&am...

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Youth (ages15-24) #unemployment in #India is 24.9%, the highest in #SouthAsia region. #Bangladesh 14.8%, #Pakistan 9.2%. Source: International Labor Organization & World Bank https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.1524.ZS?locations=PK-IN-BD

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1530565654616477696?s=20&...

Fiscal deficit recorded at 3.8pc in 3 quarters

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/05/30/fiscal-deficit-recor...


The country’s fiscal deficit was recorded at 3.8 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the first three quarters of the current fiscal year compared to the 3 percent deficit recorded during the corresponding period of last year.

The deficit during July-March (2021-22) stood at Rs2,565.6 billion compared to the deficit of Rs1,652.0 billion during July-March (2020-21), says Monthly Economic Update and Outlook, May 2022 released by finance ministry.

The increase in deficit has been observed on account of the higher expenditures due to the rise in subsidies and grants. It is expected that the expenditure side would come under further pressure in the remaining months of the current fiscal year.

Similarly, the primary balance posted a deficit of Rs447.2 billion against the surplus of
Rs451.8 billion during the period under review.

Meanwhile, on the revenue side, tax collection has been currently showing a remarkable performance by posting a growth of 29 percent during the first ten months of the current fiscal year.

The first ten months’ data shows that the revenue collection has surpassed the target by Rs237 billion. This is despite tax relief measures which have impacted revenue collection by approximately Rs73 billion just in the month of April 2022. Total revenues grew by 17.7 percent in July-March (FY-2022) against the growth of 6.5 percent recorded in the same period of last year.

Higher growth in revenues has been achieved on the back of the significant rise in tax collection, the outlooks says adding, total tax collection (federal & provincial) increased by 28.1 percent whereas non-tax collection declined by 14.3 percent during the period under review.

FBR has taken various policy and administrative measures which paid off in terms of improved tax collection during the current fiscal year. It is expected that with the current growth momentum, FBR would be able to achieve its target during FY 2022. Total expenditure witnessed a sharp rise of 27.0 percent during Jul-Marc FY2022 against a 4.2 percent rise in the same period of last year.

Higher growth in total expenditure during the period has been observed on account of 21.2 percent growth in current spending and 54.6 percent increase in development expenditures.

The government is taking all possible measure to counter the downside risks associated with the economy, which currently has been facing challenges to sustain growth it had achieved during the fiscal year 2021-22, says Monthly Economic Update and Outlook,
May 2022 released here.

“Although the economy of Pakistan has achieved GDP growth of 5.97 percent in FY2022, but the fiscal situation and external sector performance are making it difficult to sustain and impacting the growth outlook in coming year,” noted the report.

It says, the International commodity prices were on rising trend and expected to increase further, adding the pass-through of the increase in global commodity prices was somewhat contained due to government measures. Even then it is expected that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will remain in double digit in May 2022.

Pakistan’s generational shift
By Dr Ayesha RazzaqueMay 22, 2022

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/959718-pakistan-s-generational-shift

Last year saw the publication of ‘Womansplaining – Navigating Activism, Politics and Modernity in Pakistan,’ a book edited by Federal Minister Sherry Rehman to which I was able to contribute a chapter. It connected education with women’s rights and argued that indigenous movements like the Aurat March should focus on education as a core part of their agenda.

Detractors of Pakistan’s women’s rights movement have been taking potshots at it by claiming that the issues it raises are not the issues of ‘real’ (read: rural) women. Put aside for a minute the fact that Pakistan’s rural population now accounts for 62 per cent, down from 72 per cent in 1980, and is on a steady decline. While the numbers may differ, and women’s power to negotiate may differ, rural and urban women share basic challenges and better education can yield similar opportunities and improvements in life circumstances.

Indigenous progressive and women’s rights movements have adopted the cause of education as an agenda item but should make it front and center, specifically K-12 education for girls in rural areas. New data further substantiates that connection with numbers. Education up to the higher secondary level, just the education that rural schools offer today, is the enabler that brings increased women’s labour force participation, delayed first marriage, lower rates of consanguinity, increased income, increased spousal income, and is a contributing factor to greater freedom of movement and communication – all positives.

Studies exploring the relationships between levels of education and life circumstances around the world are plentiful and capture the situation at a point and place in time. The Learning and Educational Achievements in Pakistan Schools (LEAPS) programme is qualitatively different because it already spans a period of almost two decades. The LEAPS programme has been tracking lower- and middle-income households in 120 randomly selected villages across three districts in rural Punjab since 2003. It has been revisiting them since then, most recently for the sixth time in 2018, roughly once every three years. That makes it one of the largest and longest panels of households in lower- and middle-income countries. This study is also unique as it looks at return on investment in education beyond an individual’s income and looks into the possible spillover into life circumstances and quality-of-life which is especially interesting for those interested in women empowerment and feminist movements.

In this latest round it surveyed 2006 women now aged 20-30. All these women were from the same 120 birth villages and have been tracked to their marital homes within or outside the village if they have married, migrated or moved for any other reason. Preliminary descriptive results of the long-running LEAPS study tell interesting stories. The headline finding of LEAPS investigators is that Pakistan is in the midst of a ‘generational shift’ where, for the first time in its education history, we have a ‘critical mass of moderately educated women’.

In this generation only 18.7 per cent of rural women are without an education, down from 75.5 per cent from their mothers’ generation. Nearly 50 per cent have an education ranging from a primary to secondary education, up from just 20 per cent in the previous generation. A stunning 22.9 per cent have a higher secondary or above education, up from an almost nothing 0.3 per cent in their previous generation.



-----------

Existing plans, at least in the domain of education, remain unguided by some of the very excellent evidence that is available. Meanwhile, the Planning Commission is organizing a ‘Turnaround Pakistan’ conference perhaps as early as May 28 to conduct national consultations. Whether a hurriedly thrown together conference can change the way business is done remains to be seen.

Pakistan says IMF is only resort, shut out of bond markets

Pakistan needs about $36 billion to $37 billion in financing for the fiscal year starting June, said Ismail. An IMF deal would help secure funds from other sources such as the World Bank and friendly nations including China.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/30/pakistan-says-imf-only-...

Finance minister said that several countries are ready to offer help, but first want Islamabad to secure funds from IMF.

Pakistan’s government is unable to secure funding from the global bond market and commercial banks, making it even more important to secure an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said.

Pakistan’s dollar bonds, which reached a record low this month, gained on Friday after the government raised fuel prices, a key benchmark for the IMF to resume its loan program. Pakistan is seeking to secure a staff-level agreement with the fund in June.


“All roads lead to the IMF,” Ismail said Saturday to a virtual conference. “Saudi Arabia and other countries are all ready to give money, but all of them say we need to go to the IMF first.”

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan reduced and froze fuel prices, stalling the $6 billion bailout program. His successor Shehbaz Sharif, who took office in April, banned luxury imports and the central bank raised borrowing costs more than expected this month to deal with all-time high imports.

Pakistan needs about $36 billion to $37 billion in financing for the fiscal year starting June, said Ismail. An IMF deal would help secure funds from other sources such as the World Bank and friendly nations including China.

Ismail ruled out raising funds from the global bond market and foreign commercial banks that have given short-term loans in the past. The decision was made after the nation is said to have picked banks JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Standard Chartered Plc and Credit Suisse Group AG to manage any bond sale.


The financing will help Pakistan increase its foreign exchange reserves to about $15 billion next fiscal year from about $10 billion. Pakistan faces $3.2 billion in dollar debt due this year, the highest amount in the next decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Pakistan’s financing needs will be comfortable if the nation secures the IMF program, acting central bank governor Murtaza Syed told investors and analysts last week.

New growth
Sarah Nizamani


https://www.dawn.com/news/1692241/new-growth

Evidence confirms that economic growth occurs when countries are a part of global supply and value chains. But, what defines value changes. For example, Adam Smith in The Wealth of Nations lists some of the most unproductive professions — including that of churchmen, lawyers, musicians, dancers and sportsmen. He would be surprised to know how much money there is in these professions now. For Pakistan to achieve sustained growth, it needs to create value for the goods and services in global demand. There are no easy answers for how this can be achieved, but there are ideas to debate.

For 200 years, economic growth has been linked with manufacturing, but this may no longer be valid. Several reports show that many low-income countries might have missed the boat to developing industry. As pointed out by Ejaz Ghani and Stephen O’Connell, industrialisation needs two main factors to flourish: 1) enhanced availability of electric power; 2) higher capital investment. With power shortages and an inability to attract investment, Pakistan has struggled with both. However, evidence suggests there is still a chance for developing countries to shape their development pathways which lie in the service revolution. In Pakistan, the service sector has contributed more to growth than industry since 1950 and surpassed agriculture in 1965. In 2020, it employed 36pc of labour and contributed 54pc to GDP. The level of productivity measured at purchasing power parity is also higher than in industry.

Thanks to technology, the sector is no longer exclusively driven by domestic demand and services are globally tradable. This results in increased exports of trade in services. For example, Pakistani freelancers earned $150 million in FY2019-20 (in the absence of PayPal) and Pakistan was ranked fourth in the freelancers’ market (above India and Bangladesh). This proves that manufacturing is not the only driver of growth, and that the service sector is not only sustainable but also inclusive. If Pakistan can expand and improve its service sector, it may result in faster job creation and higher household spending. This would not mean giving up on industrialisation, but divorcing protectionism in the hope of better returns.

Still, there’s a need to recognise that services are an urban phenomenon and skill-centric, and may not bring prosperity to all in equal measure. To bring rural prosperity, there’s a need for inclusive capitalism to reach farmers, which means access to formal finance, informed policymaking, investment in agro-tech and autonomy in farming decisions. Skipping manufacturing to leapfrog to services is possible, but this cannot be done without raising farm incomes.

What is suggested here is to end the factory fetish and protectionism, keep away from subsidising land, credit and power, empower small farmers, remove growth constraints in agriculture, invest in people, and change the state’s role from regulator/inhibitor to enabler/value creator — and to remember that the only failure is the failure to envision a better future.

Economic Survey 2021-22: Pakistan’s economy grew by 6%, says Finance Minister Miftah Ismail
"The situation in Pakistan has remained the same — whenever country records growth it, unfortunately, gets into crisis of current deficit,” says Miftah

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/964686-live-govt-launches-economi...

Finance Minister Miftah Ismail on Thursday unveiled the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22, a pre-budget document, showing growth hitting 6% against the target of 4.8% in the outgoing fiscal year.

The finance minister unveiled the Economic Survey 2021-22, alongside Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal, Power Minister Khurram Dastagir, and State Minister for Finance Ayesha Ghous Pasha in a press conference in Islamabad.

Miftah highlighted the performance and targets achieved or missed during the outgoing fiscal year — when the Imran Khan-led government was in power for the first nine months — that started on July 1, 2021, and will end on June 30, 2022.

The government achieved the most important economic target — GDP growth — and hence, it was less surprising that other goals were achieved as well.

"The situation in Pakistan has remained the same — whenever the country records growth it, unfortunately, gets into the crisis of current deficit,” said Miftah.

“The same has happened this time as well, the recent 5.97% growth recorded during the outgoing fiscal year 2021-22, according to new estimates, has pushed Pakistan towards the balance of payments and current account deficit crisis,” the finance minister lamented.

He further highlighted imports have increased by 48% as compared to the last fiscal year, while the exports also moved up. But noted that the trade deficit stood at $45 billion.

Miftah said that years before, the exports were around half of the imports. However, the export-to-import ratio stands at 40:60 now, he said, adding that Pakistan could only finance 40% of its imports through exports and for the rest, it had to rely on remittances or loans — which makes the country stuck in a balance of payment crisis.


"We also need inclusive growth. We have always facilitated the elite so they can boost the industry and benefit the economy. This is one strategy, but when we give privileges to the elite, then our import basket increases," he said.

A rich person spends a lot on imported items as compared to a low-income person, he said, adding that the government should financially empower the low-income groups to boost local production.

"If we do this, then maybe our domestic and agriculture production would increase, but it will not move up our import bill. This growth will be inclusive as well as sustainable," he said.

The finance minister added that since the energy prices are too high in Pakistan, therefore, the local industry is "uncompetitive and also shuts down at times".

Miftah said the gas supply for all industries has resumed after being shut for some time, noting that the supply to industries would not have been stopped had the PTI government entered long-term agreements.

The previous government did not make long-term plans, forcing Pakistan to buy energy and oil at expensive rates, which is worsening the economy of the country.

"And this is not PML-N, JUI-F, PPP, or the coalition government's economy whose economic situation is worsening; it is the state of Pakistan that is seeing an economic turmoil," he said.

The finance minister, while talking about the foreign direct investment (FDI), said it was around $2 billion in 2017-2018, but it stood at around $1.25 billion in the first nine months of the outgoing fiscal year.

Miftah said the trade and current account deficits have increased as compared to 2017-18 — the fiscal year when PML-N's government ended — as an "incompetent" ruler was imposed on Pakistan.

Economic Survey 2021-22: Pakistan’s economy grew by 6%, says Finance Minister Miftah Ismail
"The situation in Pakistan has remained the same — whenever country records growth it, unfortunately, gets into crisis of current deficit,” says Miftah

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/964686-live-govt-launches-economi...

https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_22/Highlights.pdf

Finance Minister Miftah Ismail on Thursday unveiled the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22, a pre-budget document, showing growth hitting 6% against the target of 4.8% in the outgoing fiscal year.

The finance minister unveiled the Economic Survey 2021-22, alongside Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal, Power Minister Khurram Dastagir, and State Minister for Finance Ayesha Ghous Pasha in a press conference in Islamabad.

Miftah highlighted the performance and targets achieved or missed during the outgoing fiscal year — when the Imran Khan-led government was in power for the first nine months — that started on July 1, 2021, and will end on June 30, 2022.

The government achieved the most important economic target — GDP growth — and hence, it was less surprising that other goals were achieved as well.

"The situation in Pakistan has remained the same — whenever the country records growth it, unfortunately, gets into the crisis of current deficit,” said Miftah.

“The same has happened this time as well, the recent 5.97% growth recorded during the outgoing fiscal year 2021-22, according to new estimates, has pushed Pakistan towards the balance of payments and current account deficit crisis,” the finance minister lamented.

He further highlighted imports have increased by 48% as compared to the last fiscal year, while the exports also moved up. But noted that the trade deficit stood at $45 billion.

Miftah said that years before, the exports were around half of the imports. However, the export-to-import ratio stands at 40:60 now, he said, adding that Pakistan could only finance 40% of its imports through exports and for the rest, it had to rely on remittances or loans — which makes the country stuck in a balance of payment crisis.


"We also need inclusive growth. We have always facilitated the elite so they can boost the industry and benefit the economy. This is one strategy, but when we give privileges to the elite, then our import basket increases," he said.

A rich person spends a lot on imported items as compared to a low-income person, he said, adding that the government should financially empower the low-income groups to boost local production.

"If we do this, then maybe our domestic and agriculture production would increase, but it will not move up our import bill. This growth will be inclusive as well as sustainable," he said.

The finance minister added that since the energy prices are too high in Pakistan, therefore, the local industry is "uncompetitive and also shuts down at times".

Miftah said the gas supply for all industries has resumed after being shut for some time, noting that the supply to industries would not have been stopped had the PTI government entered long-term agreements.

The previous government did not make long-term plans, forcing Pakistan to buy energy and oil at expensive rates, which is worsening the economy of the country.

"And this is not PML-N, JUI-F, PPP, or the coalition government's economy whose economic situation is worsening; it is the state of Pakistan that is seeing an economic turmoil," he said.

The finance minister, while talking about the foreign direct investment (FDI), said it was around $2 billion in 2017-2018, but it stood at around $1.25 billion in the first nine months of the outgoing fiscal year.

Miftah said the trade and current account deficits have increased as compared to 2017-18 — the fiscal year when PML-N's government ended — as an "incompetent" ruler was imposed on Pakistan.

conomic Survey 2021-22: Pakistan’s economy grew by 6%, says Finance Minister Miftah Ismail

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/964686-live-govt-launches-economi...

https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_22/Highlights.pdf


Miftah said the trade and current account deficits have increased as compared to 2017-18 — the fiscal year when PML-N's government ended — as an "incompetent" ruler was imposed on Pakistan.

Miftah said although coronavirus was once in a lifetime pandemic, the government missed historic opportunities. "After COVID, oil and gas were at record-low rates, which the PTI government missed."

He noted that although several lives were lost due to the pandemic, the country did not face much of a loss on the economic front as the G20 deferred the loan repayment of more than $4 billion and International Monetary (IMF) gave an additional $1.4 billion to Pakistan.

"The previous government did not consolidate it and could capitalise on it," the finance minister said, slamming the PTI for reducing the agricultural yield as Pakistan now has to import wheat from countries, that it would export in the pre-PTI era.

Miftah stressed that since Pakistan is a nuclear country, its export-to-GDP rate should be 15%. "The problem in Pakistan is not that our import is a lot, but the issue lies in our exports being less," he said.

'Historic loans'
The finance minister said the PTI government took "historic" loans during its tenure. Miftah added the government would be needing $3,100 billion for debt servicing this year and the $3,900 plus billion next year.

'Rebasing of economy'
For his part, Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal said the PTI government had rebased the economy, therefore, the latest numbers did not represent the “true picture”.

The planning minister said his sector, development, has taken the biggest hit in this economic survey as public investment had gone down, which ultimately shrunk private investment.

Iqbal said PTI decreased the development budget gradually and when the coalition government came into power, it was taken down to Rs550 billion.

"This was a huge contrast between the budget that we last presented. We had aligned 'two Ds' — the defence and development budgets were Rs1,000 billion," Iqbal said.

The federal minister said the defence budget was not slashed for development, but record taxes were collected to meet the demands of both sectors.

Pakistan’s future depends on ‘strong defence’
Iqbal added that Pakistan's future depends on a strong defence as well as development. He added that it was important to invest in education and creates avenues of employment for youth.

"If we do not do this, then a similar incident will happen like the one which took place at Karachi University, where a woman, who was studying doing her MPhil, blew herself up. The people facing poverty tend to move towards extremism," he said.

The planning minister recalled that during the PML-N's last tenure, the country was moving towards "vision 2025" when all of a sudden, we took a U-turn to "Naya Pakistan".

Iqbal said the coalition government was trying to bring the country back on track in terms of economic prosperity, but "at a price" — the revocation of subsidies.

He added that when the government was formed, it took one month to end the subsidies as it was trying to look for ways to refrain from shifting the burden on the masses.

Iqbal says PM Shehbaz wants charter of economy
Moving on, Iqbal said the development had stood at "0%" during PTI's tenure, and the current government wanted to revive the economy in its quest to invest in this sector.

Pakistan is behind Bangladesh in every sector despite Dhaka gaining independence 25 years after Islamabad, Iqbal said, noting that it was time the nation thinks about development seriously.

It seems the economy fared better during the fiscal year 2021-2022, i.e. the PTI government’s final year. PML-N took over in April after the controversial vote of no confidence. While PML-N claims that Imran Khan’s government ruined the economy, broad-based growth was witnessed in all the sectors of the economy.

https://www.globalvillagespace.com/pakistans-economy-showed-robust-...

The incumbent government will today launch the pre-budget document, Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22, showing a robust GDP growth rate of 5.97 percent. The survey would cover the development of all the important sectors of the economy, including growth.

According to details reported by the media, most of the targets set for the outgoing fiscal year 2021-22 seemed to be achieved or even surpassed the previous years’ targets, as the macro economic indicators have shown good performance during the year.As per the Planning Commission’s estimations made in the 105th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC), the provisional GDP growth rate for the years 2021-22 is estimated at 5.97%.

The growth of agricultural, industrial, and services sectors is 4.40%, 7.19%, and 6.19% respectively. The growth of important crops during this year is 7.24%. The growth in production of important crops namely Cotton, Rice, Sugarcane, and Maize are estimated at 17.9%, 10.7%, 9.4%, and 19.0% respectively.

The services sector shows a growth of 6.19%. The wholesale and Retail Trade industry grew by 10.04%. It is dependent on the output of agriculture, manufacturing, and imports.

https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_22/Highlights.pdf

Pakistan Economic Survey: Education 2021-22


https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_22/PES10-EDUCATION.pdf

Pakistan is committed to transform its education system into a high-quality global
market demand driven system in accordance with the Goal 4 of Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) which pertains to quality of education. The progress
achieved by Pakistan so far on Goal 4 of SDGs is as under:
 Primary, Lower and Upper Secondary Education Completion Rate stood at 67
percent, 47 percent and 23 percent, respectively, depicting higher Primary
attendance than Lower and Upper Secondary levels.
 Parity Indices at Literacy, Youth Literacy, Primary and Secondary are 0.71, 0.82, 0.88
and 0.89, respectively.
 Participation rate in organized learning (one year before the official primary entry
age), by sex is 19 percent showing a low level of consideration of Pre-Primary
Education.
 Percentage of population in a given age group achieving at least affixed level of
proficiency in functional; (a) literacy and (b) numeracy skills is 60 percent.

--------
Literacy, Gross Enrolment Rate (GER) and Net Enrolment Rate (NER)
Literacy
During 2021-22, PSLM Survey was not conducted due to upcoming Population and
Housing Census 2022. Therefore, the figures for the latest available survey regarding
GER and NER may be considered for the analysis. However, according to Labour Force
Survey 2020-21, literacy rate trends shows 62.8 percent in 2020-21 (as compared to
62.4 percent in 2018-19), more in males (from 73.0 percent to 73.4 percent) than
females (from 51.5 percent to 51.9 percent). Area-wise analysis suggest literacy increase
in both rural (53.7 percent to 54.0 percent) and urban (76.1 percent to 77.3 percent).
Male-female disparity seems to be narrowing down with time span. Literacy rate gone
up in all provinces, Punjab (66.1 percent to 66.3 percent), Sindh (61.6 percent to 61.8
percent), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (52.4 percent to 55.1 percent) and Balochistan (53.9
percent to 54.5 percent). [Table10.2].
Table 10.2: Literacy Rate (10 Years and Above) (Percent)
Province/Area 2018-19 2020-21
Male Female Total Male Female Total
Pakistan 73.0 51.5 62.4 73.4 51.9 62.8
Rural 67.1 40.4 53.7 67.2 40.8 54.0
Urban 82.2 69.7 76.1 83.5 70.8 77.3

--------

During 2021-22, PSLM Survey was not conducted due to upcoming Population and
Housing Census 2022. Therefore, the figures for the latest available survey are reported
here.
Table 10.3: National and Provincial GER (Age 6 -10 years) at Primary Level (Classes1-5)(Percent)
Province/Area 2014-15 2019-20
Male Female Total Male Female Total
Pakistan 98 82 91 89 78 84
Punjab 103 92 98 93 90 92
Sindh 88 69 79 78 62 71
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(Including Merged Areas)
- - - 96 73 85
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(Excluding Merged Areas)
103 80 92 98 79 89
Balochistan 89 54 73 84 56 72
Source: Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) District Level Survey, 2019-20,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

-------------

Annual Status of Education Report (ASER)
Annual Status of Education Report (ASER-Rural) 2021, is the largest citizen-led
household-based learning survey across all provinces/areas: Sindh, Balochistan, Punjab,
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Gilgit Baltistan (GB), Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) and
Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK). According to the ASER 2021, 10,000 trained
volunteer/enumerators surveyed 87,415 households in 4,420 villages across 152 rural
districts of Pakistan. Detailed information of 247,978 children aged 3-16 has been
collected (57 percent male and 43 percent female), and of these, 212,105 children aged
5-16 years were assessed for language and arithmetic competencies. Moreover, 585
transgenders were also a part of the surveyed sample. Major findings of ASER 2021 and
its comparison with 2019 is given in Box-II

Pakistan Economic Survey: Health & Nutrition 2021-22

https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_22/PES11-HEALTH.pdf

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) in Pakistan has declined to 54.2 deaths per 1,000 live births
in 2020 from 55.7 in 2019, while Neonatal Mortality Rate declined to 40.4 deaths per
1,000 live births in 2020 from 41.2 in 2019. Percentage of birth attended by skilled
health personnel increased to 69.3 percent in 2020 from 68 percent in 2019 (DHS & UNICEF). Maternal Mortality Ratio fell to 186 maternal deaths per 100,000 births in
2020, from 189 in 2019 (Table 11.1).
With a population growing at 2 percent per annum, Pakistan’s contraceptive prevalence
rate in 2020 decreased to 33 percent from 34 percent in 2019 (Trading Economics).
Pakistan’s tuberculosis incidence is 259 per 100,000 population and HIV prevalence rate
is 0.12 per 1,000 population in 2020.


Table 11.1: Health Indicators of Pakistan
2019 2020
Maternal Mortality Ratio (Per 100,000 Births)* 189 186
Neonatal Mortality Rate (Per 1,000 Live Births) 41.2 40.4
Mortality Rate, Infant (Per 1,000 Live Births) 55.7 54.2
Under-5 Mortality Rate (Per 1,000) 67.3 65.2
Incidence of Tuberculosis (Per 100,000 People) 263 259
Incidence of HIV (Per 1,000 Uninfected Population) 0.12 0.12
Life Expectancy at Birth, (Years) 67.3 67.4
Births Attended By Skilled Health Staff (% of Total)** 68.0 (2015) 69.3 (2018)
Contraceptive Prevalence, Any Methods (% of Women Ages 15-49) 34.0 33
Source: WDI, UNICEF, Trading Economics & Our World in data
-----------

Food and nutrition

Calories/day 2019-20 2457 2020-21 2786 2021-22 2735

-------

Table 11.9: Availability of Major Food Items per annum (Kg per capita)
Food Items 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 (P)**
Cereals 139.9 170.8 164.7
Pulses 7.8 7.6 7.3
Sugar 23.3 28.5 28.3
Milk (Liter) 168.7 171.8 168.8
Meat (Beef, Mutton, Chicken) 22.0 22.9 22.5
Fish 2.9 2.9 2.9
Eggs (Dozen) 7.9 8.2 8.1
Edible Oil/ Ghee 14.8 15.1 14.5
Fruits & Vegetables 53.6 52.4 68.3
Calories/day 2457 2786 2735
Source: M/o PD&SI (Nutrition Section)

Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22 (Manufacturing & Mining Chapter)


https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_22/PES03-MANUFACTURING.pdf



During July-March FY2022, LSM staged
the growth of 10.4 percent against 4.24
percent growth in the corresponding
period last year. Production of 11 items
under the Oil Companies Advisory
Committee increased by 2.0 percent, 36
items under the Ministry of Industries and
Production surged by 10.3 percent, while 76 items reported by the Provincial Bureaus
of Statistics increased by 12.1 percent. The expansion of LSM is also appeared to be
broad based, with 17 out of 22 sectors of LSM witnessed a positive growth. Furniture,
Wood Products, Automobile, Footballs, Tobacco, Iron & Steel Products, Machinery and
Equipment, and Chemical Products remained the top performing sectors of LSM.

----------
Automobile sector marked a vigorous growth of 54.1 percent during July-March FY2022
against 21.6 percent growth last year. New Auto Policy, to promote new technologies
including Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Hybrid, and accommodative monetary policy to
promote auto financing paved the way to grew automobiles production. Besides, tax
incentives to promote locally manufactured cars also pent-up the demand as well as the
production of the given sector such as locally manufactured hybrid sales tax reduced
from 12.5 percent to 8 percent and FED reduced by 2.5 percent upto 1300cc for locally
manufactured cars. Moreover, during July-March FY2022 car production and sale
increased by 56.7 and 53.8 percent, respectively. Trucks & Buses production and sale
increased by 66.0 and 54.0 percent and tractor production and sale increased by 13.5
and 12.1 percent, respectively. Though the relief measures in form of waiving of taxes
pushed up the sector, in the meanwhile reduced the revenues of national exchequer and
built the pressure on imports besides creating uncertainty in market sentiments.

-------------

In case of passenger cars, the production and sales are up by 57 percent and 54 percent
with 166,768 and 172,612 units, respectively. In this regard, higher growth has been
observed in up to 800cc and up to 1000cc segments registering 77 percent and 65
percent growth, respectively. Growth in exceeding 1000cc segment was 35 percent. For
similar reasons, the production and the sales of light commercial vehicles (LCV) and
SUVs registered increase by 44 percent and 46 percent, respectively. In the SUV and SUV
crossover segment two new products appear from Beijing Automotive Industry, BAIC
BJ40L and BAIC X25 with modest numbers which are expected to grow in time.
Farm tractor sector has shown growth with production and the sales up by 13.5 percent
and 12 percent respectively. This pleasant upward surge was due to overall growth in
agriculture sector ensuing better crop prices and consequent more buying power of the
farmers. However, these numbers are not even close to the highest numbers this
industry had achieved in the past.
The two/three wheelers sector showed modest fall in production and the sales by 3.5
percent and 4.1 percent respectively. This fall is due intra-industry production losses by
some units, while other units have shown their natural growth. Two/three wheelers
offers most economical public transport alternate for the lower income group, however,
at same time, it is extremely price sensitive. Massive exchange rate losses kicked off
inflationary conditions resulting inevitable price increase. Still, this sector offers most
preferred means of transport and best alternative in the absence of Public Transport in
the cities and thus holds a dependable and continued potential for growth in the coming
years.

Barrick Gold Corporation - Reko Diq Alliance Between Pakistan and Barrick Set to Create Long-Term Value


https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2022/reko-diq-all...

Subject to the updated feasibility study, Reko Diq is envisaged as a conventional open pit and milling operation, producing a high-quality copper-gold concentrate. It will be constructed in two phases, starting with a plant that will be able to process approximately 40 million tonnes of ore per annum which could be doubled in five years. With its unique combination of large scale, low strip and good grade, Reko Diq will be a multi-generational mine with a life of at least 40 years. During peak construction the project is expected to employ 7,500 people and once in production it will create 4,000 long-term jobs. Barrick’s policy of prioritizing local employment and suppliers will have a positive impact on the downstream economy.

-----------------

ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN – Finance Minister Miftah Ismail and Barrick president and chief executive Mark Bristow said after their meeting here today that they shared a clear vision of the national strategic importance of the Reko Diq copper-gold project and were committed to developing it as a world-class mine that would create value for the country and its people through multiple generations.

Reko Diq is one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits. An agreement in principle reached between the government of Pakistan, the provincial government of Balochistan and Barrick earlier this year provides for the reconstitution and restart of the project, which has been on hold since 2011. It will be operated by Barrick and owned 50% by Barrick, 25% by the Balochistan Provincial Government and 25% by Pakistani state-owned enterprises.

The definitive agreements underlying the framework agreement are currently being finalized by teams from Barrick and Pakistan. Once this has been completed and the necessary legalization steps have been taken, Barrick will update the original feasibility study, a process expected to take two years. Construction of the first phase will follow that with first production of copper and gold expected in 2027/2028.

“During the negotiations the federal government and Barrick confirmed that Balochistan and its people should receive their fair share of the benefits as part of the Pakistan ownership group,” Bristow said.

“At Barrick we know that our long-term success depends on sharing the benefits we create equitably with our host governments and communities. At Reko Diq, Balochistan’s shareholding will be fully funded by the project and the Federal Government, allowing the province to reap the dividends, royalties and other benefits of its 25% ownership without having to contribute financially to the project’s construction or operation. It’s equally important that Balochistan and its people should see these benefits from day one. Even before construction starts, when the legalization process has been completed we will implement a range of social development programs, supported by an upfront commitment to the improvement of healthcare, education, food security and the provision of potable water in a region where the groundwater has a high saline content.”

Finance Minister Ismail said the development of Reko Diq represented the largest direct foreign investment in Balochistan and one of the largest in Pakistan.

“Like Barrick, we believe that the future of mining lies in mutually beneficial partnerships between host countries and world-class mining companies. The Reko Diq agreement exemplifies this philosophy and also signals to the international community that Pakistan is open for business,” he said.

Barrick Gold strikes final deal with Pakistan for Reko Diq project
Published by Joe Toft, Editorial Assistant
Global Mining Review

https://www.globalminingreview.com/mining/30122022/barrick-gold-str...

Barrick Gold Corporationhas announced that it has completed the reconstitution of the Reko Diq project, having received a favourable opinion from the Supreme Court of Pakistan and the required legislation having been passed into law.
One of the largest undeveloped copper-gold projects in the world, Reko Diq is owned 50% by Barrick, 25% by three federal state-owned enterprises, 15% by the Province of Balochistan on a fully funded basis and 10% by the Province of Balochistan on a free carried basis.

Barrick president and chief executive Mark Bristow said the completion of the legal processes was a key step in progressing the development of Reko Diq into a world-class, long-life mine which would substantially expand the company’s strategically significant copper portfolio and benefit its Pakistani stakeholders for generations to come.

“We are currently updating the project’s 2010 feasibility and 2011 feasibility expansion studies. This should be completed by 2024, with 2028 targeted for first production,” Bristow said.

“With its unique combination of large scale, low strip and good grade, Reko Diq is expected to have a life of at least 40 years. We envisage a truck-and-shovel open cast operation with processing facilities producing a high-quality copper-gold concentrate. We expect it to be constructed in two phases with a combined process capacity of 80 million tpy.

Reko Diq will be a major contributor to Pakistan’s economy which is expected to have a transformative impact on the underdeveloped Balochistan province where, in addition to the economic benefits it will generate, the mine will also create jobs, promote the growth of a regional economy and invest in development programs. The province’s interest in the mine will be fully funded, which means that Balochistan will reap the dividends, royalties and other benefits of its 25% shareholding without having to contribute financially to its construction and operation.

“Reko Diq’s ownership structure is a further manifestation of Barrick’s commitment to partnership with its host countries and communities and to sharing the value our operations create fairly with all our stakeholders,” Bristow said.

“We’re making sure that Balochistan and its people will see these benefits quickly. Starting early next year, Barrick will implement a range of social development programs prioritising the improvement of healthcare, education, vocational training, food security and the provision of potable water. Our investment in these is expected to amount to around US$70 million over the feasibility and construction period. In addition, Reko Diq will advance royalties to the government of Balochistan of up to US$50 million until commercial production starts.”

During peak construction the project is expected to employ 7500 people and once in production it will create around 4000 long-term jobs. As elsewhere in the group, Barrick prioritises the employment of local people and host country nationals.

Bristow said Barrick already had the industry's best gold assets and the addition of Reko Diq would promote its copper portfolio into the world-class league, accelerating the company towards its goal of creating the world's most valued gold and copper mining business.

Pakistan is sitting on a gold mine


https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/pakistan-is-sittin...


The Reko Diq mine, renowned for its massive gold and copper deposits, is thought to contain the fifth-largest gold deposit in the world.


Reko Diq is a small desert village in the Balochistan district of Chagai, 70 kilometers northwest of Naukundi and close to Pakistan's border with Iran and Afghanistan. This region is situated within the Tethyan belt, which extends from Turkey and Iran to Pakistan. Reko Diq, which in Balochi means "sandy mountain," is also the name of an extinct volcano.

The Reko Diq mine, renowned for its massive gold and copper deposits, is thought to contain the fifth-largest gold deposit in the world. The mine is in a small desert area in the northeast of Balochistan, near the border with Iran and Afghanistan.

600,000 tons of concentrate produce an estimated 200,000 tons of copper and 250,000 ounces of gold on a yearly basis. The annual profit from the mines is estimated by the TCC to be approximately $1.14 billion for copper and $2.50 billion for gold, totaling $3.64 billion annually. Independent estimates suggest the number is as high as $500 billion, which is significantly higher than the TCC's estimation of $200 billion.

Barrick Gold Corporation - Reko Diq Mining Company Constitutes Community Development Committee for Locally Driven Development



https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2023/reko-diq-con...


NOKKUNDI, BALOCHISTAN – Reko Diq Mining Company (RDMC), a subsidiary of Barrick Gold Corporation, has constituted a 25-member Community Development Committee (CDC) at Nokkundi in the Chagai district. The CDC comprises local stakeholders and community leaders who will guide the company’s social investment plan in the area.

Speaking at the event, Ali Ehsan Rind, the country manager of RDMC said: “In all its operations worldwide, Barrick strives to be a good corporate citizen and a genuine partner of the host communities in locally led development. With the formation of this CDC, representing all the key local stakeholders, I am confident that our work will become a catalyst for the social development of the local communities.”

The meeting was also attended by the district commissioner of Chaghi, the deputy director of mines (Balochistan), tribal elders, local notables and a cross-section of representatives from the district.

The Nokkundi CDC was formulated after an extensive consultative process and engagement with 62 stakeholders. Its mandate includes consultation for consensus on the selection of social investment initiatives to be undertaken by the company.

Community Development Committees
CDCs are our community development partnership model, comprised of community members, elected locally and include a representative from the company to ensure projects chosen align with the five sustainable development focus areas and adhere to our policies including procurement and accountable governance.
The formation of this CDC is a concrete step taken by RDMC to ensure that the business delivers social investment projects of significant and lasting benefit to the local communities among whom it will operate. The management of RDMC values sustainable development and mutual advantage and seeks to build a harmonious partnership amongst the communities in and around the RD project area.

Reko Diq will be a multi-generational mine with a life of at least 40 years. During peak construction the project is expected to employ 7,500 people and once in production it will create 4,000 long-term jobs. Barrick’s policy of prioritizing local employment and suppliers will have a positive impact on the local economy. The company plans to finish the Reko Diq feasibility study update by the end of 2024, with 2028 targeted for first production from the giant copper-gold mine in the country’s Balochistan province. The new Reko Diq agreement ensures that benefits from the project start accruing to the people of Balochistan well before the mine goes

Reko Diq #Copper Mine in #Pakistan's #Balochistan has potential to be one of world’s biggest suppliers of metal needed for transition to clean #energy. #Canada's Barrick is investing in it. #SaudiArabia's #investment fund has also expressed interest. https://www.ft.com/content/7a1db3cf-a61b-4ef5-b90d-ea98fe530295


“Reko Diq is one of the bigger copper-gold undeveloped projects in the world,” said Mark Bristow, chief executive of Barrick, which aims to start mining in 2028 subject to an ongoing feasibility study. “It’s a very big deal. Any copper mine right now is a big deal.”

The project highlights how the copper shortfall is pushing miners into ever trickier markets in search of supply. Pakistan’s repeated political and economic crises have scared away all but the most determined foreign investors, and local authorities had blocked an earlier attempt involving Barrick to mine Reko Diq.


---
Bristow argues that the project, in which Barrick has a 50 per cent stake alongside the Pakistan and Balochistan governments, will bring much-needed development to the region.

“Mining, when it goes into emerging markets, is obsessed with getting its money back,” he said. “We’ve learned that you start paying benefits and dividends early on.”

As countries transition to clean energy sources, copper — whose conductive properties make it crucial to transporting electricity — is only expected to become more important to the global economy.

But with supply from incumbent mines in countries such as Chile and Peru stalling, an estimated $118bn of investment by 2030 is needed to plug a supply gap that will by next decade be equivalent to 35 Reko Diq-sized projects, according to analysts at CRU Group.


Th a record of operating in riskier markets such as Mali and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

While Reko Diq adds “a lot of uncertainty” for Barrick investors, “Barrick is no stranger to frontier jurisdictions”, said Canaccord Genuity analyst Carey MacRury.

Another factor that could help steer the Reko Diq project is the presence of a new investor. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and state mining company Ma’aden have expressed interest in a stake. Analysts said the involvement of one of Pakistan’s most important allies would help shield the project from future political U-turns.

If successful, the mine could turn the company into one of the world’s largest copper producers. Diversifying its portfolio into copper is particularly important for gold miners such as Barrick to stay relevant with investors focused on environmental, social and governance issues, since the company’s core product plays no role in the energy transition.

Reko Diq sits along the largely untapped south Asian leg of a rock formation from Europe to south-east Asia that is believed to hold rich copper deposits. Analysts believe there is the potential for more mines.

Ahsan Iqbal, who recently stepped down as Pakistan’s planning minister and worked on the project, argued that Reko Diq would “put Balochistan on the mining map of the world”.

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Reko Diq “is 50 miles from Afghanistan and 40 miles from Iran”, one person involved with the project said. “So it will be a target.”

For support, Barrick has turned to Pakistan’s powerful army, which helps control the country’s politics and helped negotiate last year’s deal to revive the project, according to a person involved.

Pakistan’s army chief also this month attended a local mining conference alongside Bristow. “The military are a steadying hand,” Bristow said. “They are absolutely essential on the security side.”

Yet rights groups have repeatedly accused the army of abuses in Balochistan, including extrajudicial executions, allegations it denies.

Bristow has welcomed the potential Saudi interest in Reko Diq and dismissed hand-wringing over whether he can see through the project.

“When you look at the world, it is more complex than when I started,” he said. “Gone are the days that you can control a mining company from a multistorey, cushy building in the developed world.”

Saudis In Talks With Pakistan on Reko Diq, Barrick CEO Says


https://www.arabnews.com/node/2402616/press-review


Bloomberg reported Saudi Arabia is in ongoing talks with Pakistan to buy part of the government’s stake in a $7 billion copper project jointly owned with Barrick Gold Corp., according to the head of the mining company.

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GOLDSaudi Arabia wants to buy major untapped copper-gold deposit in Pakistan, says Barrick Gold CEO
Barrick says the project will rank among the world’s top 10 copper producers when it reaches full production

https://mugglehead.com/saudi-arabia-wants-to-buy-major-untapped-cop...

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is in talks with Pakistan to buy one of the largest underdeveloped copper-gold projects in Pakistan which is partially owned by the gold giant Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD) (TSX: ABX).

“Saudi wants to buy some stake (in Reko Diq). We don’t know how much. So, those conversations are ongoing, and we are supportive of them, but we’re not there to get into the middle of it,” said Barrick’s CEO Mark Bristow in a Reuters interview following the release of Barrick’s Q3 2023 results.

As part of the proposed agreement, Saudi Arabia would purchase a stake in Reko Diq in collaboration with the Pakistani government. Barrick owns 50 per cent of the project, while the government and the province of Balochistan own the remainder.

“That’s something that is in the hands of the Pakistan government to come to a decision on,” Bristow told Reuters. “We would support any decision that’s made by the Pakistan government with the Saudis.”

The Reko Diq $7 billion project is located in the province of Balochistan, Pakistan and is set to be constructed in 2025 and targets production by 2028. Barrick says the project will rank among the world’s top 10 copper producers when it reaches full production.

Naguib Sawaris, an Egyptian gold billionaire, said in September he wanted to buy a piece of Reko Diq but Bristow dismissed his intention.

Barrick - Second Cohort of Graduates from Balochistan Selected for Reko Diq ‘International Graduate Development Program’


https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2024/Second-Cohor...

KARACHI – Reko Diq Mining Company (RDMC) is proud to announce the selection of eighteen talented young graduates from Balochistan for the second cohort of the prestigious RDMC International Graduate Development Program (IGP). As part of its to commitment to develop local and national employees, Barrick, the operator of RDMC, launched the International Graduate Development Program for the Reko Diq project in July 2023.

Welcoming IGP 2024 cohort at a ceremony in Karachi, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow said, “We are excited to have you join the Reko Diq International Graduate Development Program. Since its inception this program has aimed to engage young graduates like you from Balochistan to equip them with the skills necessary for successful careers at Reko Diq and in the mining industry. I would urge you to embrace this opportunity to learn, collaborate and shape the future of the Reko Diq project, your province and the country.”

For the 2024 program, a rigorous merit-based selection process led to the identification of eighteen exceptional graduates from a competitive pool of over 3,000 applicants. Among those selected are four women, underscoring Barrick's commitment to gender diversity within the mining sector. The graduates hold degrees in various fields, including Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Geological Engineering, Civil Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Mining Engineering, and Geology.

Like the selected graduates of 2023, this second batch of talented youth from Balochistan will embark on an intensive two-year on-the-job training program at Barrick’s mine sites at of Veladero in Argentina and Lumwana in Zambia. This hands-on experience is designed to equip them with practical skills and insights into world-class mining operations. Upon completion of the program, graduates typically return to Barrick operations in their home country, contributing to driving positive change in their communities.

The selected cohort represents a diverse range of districts in Balochistan, including Panjgur, Gwadar, Quetta, Loralai, Khuzdar, Noshki, Musa Khel, Killa Saifullah, Zhob, and the Chagai district where Reko Diq is located. Their participation in the program not only helps to address the regional skills gap but also promotes local empowerment and economic development.

Can Critical Minerals Redefine Pakistan-US Relations? – The Diplomat

Pakistan’s mineral wealth is vast but underdeveloped. The Reko Diq mine in Balochistan, one of the world’s largest untapped copper-gold reserves, holds an estimated 5.9 billion tons of ore. Similarly, northern regions like Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are believed to harbor lithium reserves, critical for renewable energy technologies. The Thar coalfield in Sindh, with 175 billion tons of lignite, further underscores Pakistan’s resource potential.

https://thediplomat.com/2025/02/can-critical-minerals-redefine-paki...

Pakistan and the United States, long bound by a security-centric relationship, may be on the cusp of a transformation as Islamabad explores proposals to attract the newly inaugurated Trump administration with stakes in its critical mineral reserves and other business ventures.

The prospect gained traction when U.S. businessman Gentry Beach, believed to be close to U.S. President Donald Trump, visited Pakistan earlier this month, promising billions in investments for mining and mineral projects.

“America cares about Pakistan. And I believe that together we can be very strong,” Beach said. “And we need Pakistan. You are our front face in this entire region, very important,” he continued, expressing optimism for bright future bilateral ties and economic cooperation between the two countries.

“Pakistan has something that America needs, and America has something that Pakistan needs,” Beach said, referencing the country’s mineral reserves. “That’s a wonderful situation for both of us to be in.”

It is too early to determine if Beach’s view aligns with a policy change in the Trump-led White House. His visit comes amid widespread concern in Pakistan about Washington’s disinterest in the country, following its withdrawal from Afghanistan and the geopolitical complexities surrounding the region.

The Pakistan-U.S. relationship has historically been dominated by security cooperation, with limited economic engagement. Bilateral trade between the two nations stands at a modest $6 billion annually, heavily tilted in favor of Pakistan exports.

For Pakistan, increased U.S. investment in its mineral sector could provide a much-needed economic boost, create jobs, and enhance infrastructure development. However, the success of this implausible pivot hinges on Pakistan overcoming significant geopolitical and domestic challenges to inflame Washington’s interest in a convincing manner.

Reko Diq Mining Company hosts open public forum in Nokkundi

https://www.app.com.pk/domestic/reko-diq-mining-company-hosts-open-...


QUETTA, Feb 21 (APP):Reko Diq Mining Company (RDMC) held an open public forum in Nokkundi held at RDMC Technical Institute, organized by The Hunar Foundation.
The event saw active participation from a diverse group of local stake holders including youth from Nokkundi. Notable attendees included Haji Amanullah Kubdani, Maula Bakhsh Alezai of the National Party, Wahid Bakhsh Sherzai, Nizam Lashari, Babu Razzaq Sasoli, and Muhammad Anwar from the BNP.
During the forum, RDMC’s team provided attendees with important updates and insights on various community development initiatives, with a particular focus on the skills development program run in collaboration with The Hunar Foundation and the Mother & Child Health Center managed by the Indus Hospital Network.

RDMC’s Community Engagement Manager Ali Dost Yallanzai, Community Investment Lead Essa Tahir Sanjrani, HR Lead Inayat Kubdani, and Community Engagement Lead Noor Khan Mengal addressed a range of queries from community members.
A question regarding the publication of employee lists was addressed by explaining that, in line with international HR best practices, RDMC is committed to protecting employees’ privacy and safety and, as such, cannot disclose personal information about specific employees publicly.
Regarding local hiring, it was highlighted that as of January 2025, 78 percent of RDMC’s workforce is from Balochistan, with over 50 percent from Chagai, the majority of whom are from Nokkundi.

The forum also featured presentations from Qazi Taimoor Sanjrani, Program Manager at The Hunar Foundation, and Sher Jan Baloch, Operations Manager at Indus Hospital. These presentations highlighted the significant contributions made by both organizations, particularly regarding their local workforce.
The community was informed that, as RDMC partners, both The Hunar Foundation and Indus Hospital prioritize local hiring. Over 95 percent of their employees are from Balochistan, with the majority coming from Chagai district.
The community expressed their gratitude and appreciation for RDMC’s commitment to transparency and engagement through the organization of this open forum.

TOKYO -- Japanese heavy machinery maker Komatsu will establish a maintenance hub for mining equipment in Pakistan, Nikkei has learned.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Komatsu-to-set-up-mining...

With Canada's Barrick Mining developing the Reko Diq gold mine in southwestern Pakistan, Komatsu has signed a contract to supply $440 million in equipment to the project in the coming years, starting in fiscal 2026.

The contract is one of Komatsu's biggest deals in the operating area that includes Pakistan and the Middle East, according to the company. It will provide equipment including large dump trucks, electric rope shovels and giant excavators.


Komatsu Pakistan Mining will be established in Karachi by year-end. Komatsu already has a software development center in the country but not a maintenance hub.

Mining equipment is run 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, so it needs immediate maintenance. Komatsu will spend $100 million on facilities for inspecting and repairing mining machinery. It will also eventually build up the staff to roughly 500 engineers and operators.

Komatsu will expand warehouse facilities in Dubai to bolster parts supplies. The Middle East hub, which already handles components for 100-ton-class machinery, will supply parts for mining equipment.

Komatsu and Barrick have collaborated on a copper mine in Zambia and a gold mine in the U.S. Mining equipment accounts for roughly 40% of Komatsu's group sales, with the bulk from North America and Central and South America.

Demand is rising for mining in the Middle East as the region looks to move away from a dependence on oil. Komatsu established a Kazakhstan hub in 2023 and plans to make investments in the Middle East to capture the anticipated growth in demand.

Supplying mining equipment is highly profitable, thanks to revenue from such after-sales services as parts replacement. Komatsu acquired U.S. mining equipment manufacturer Joy Global in 2017 and has been expanding its lineup by selling underground mining equipment.

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https://im-mining.com/2025/06/25/barrick-and-komatsu-agree-on-440-m...

Barrick Mining Corporation, the operator of the Reko Diq Mining Joint Venture, and Komatsu have finalised an agreement for the delivery of primary mining equipment to Barrick’s Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan starting in 2026. Valued at $440 million over the first five years, the deal marks Komatsu’s first major mining equipment placement in its Middle East territory and underscores the strengthening partnership between the two companies.

As part of its commitment to supporting Reko Diq’s operations, Komatsu intends to establish Komatsu Pakistan Mining (SMC-Private) Limited, a new entity dedicated to providing service and technical expertise at Reko Diq. Additional investments will also be made to Komatsu Middle East FZE, the regional headquarters in Dubai, UAE, to support an expanded equipment footprint in the region. These investments ensure Barrick will have the resources needed to efficiently operate at one of the world’s most significant greenfield mining developments.

“The Reko Diq project represents a long-term investment in our future and that of mining in Pakistan, and our partnership with Komatsu is an important part of that vision,” said Mark Bristow, Barrick President and CEO. “Komatsu equipment has proven its performance and reliability at our operations worldwide, and we are confident in their ability to support our goals at Reko Diq. We look forward to building on this strong relationship as we develop one of the world’s newest greenfield assets.”

The equipment package for Reko Diq includes:

• Komatsu 980E-5 ultra-class haul trucks – Manufactured and exported from Peoria, Illinois, these trucks are designed for high efficiency and longevity in demanding conditions.