Prime Minister Imran Khan has effectively led Pakistan through multiple crises in the last 4 years. Khan inherited dangerously low forex reserves in 2018 which are now at $23 billion, near the highest level in the nation's history. The COVID pandemic that hampered Pakistan's recovery has been handled well with the fully vaccinated rate for the eligible population at more than 75%. Not only has Khan deftly navigated his nation through these crises but his government has also revived the country's economy and grown exports by 26%. Domestic savings rate recovered to nearly 17% after plunging to a low of 12% in 2018. The year 2021 was a banner year for Pakistan's technology startups that raised over $350 million in funding, more than the amount raised in the previous 5 years. Manufacturing and construction industries are enjoying a boom last seen during the Musharraf years in 2000-2007.
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Historic Inflation Rates in India & Pakistan. Source: World Bank |
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Pakistan Exports in First 8 Months (July 21-Feb 22) in FY 22. Source: Razzak Dawood |
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Pakistan Employment By Sectors. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics |
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Labor Participation Rates in India and Pakistan. Source: World Bank/ILO |
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Unemployment Rate in India and Pakistan. Source: ILO/World Bank |
Pakistan Savings Rate. Source: Global Economy |
QIM Index 2019-22. Source: APP |
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Pakistan Large Scale Manufacturing Index. Source: Mettis Global |
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Cement shipments in Pakistan. Source: All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association |
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Pakistan Startup Investments. Source: Aljazeera |
Riaz Haq
#China Agrees to rollover a whopping $4.2 billion in #Pakistan #debt. The request for rollover was reportedly made by Prime Minister #ImranKhanPTI during his meeting with #Chinese President #XiJinping last month at #WinterOlympics. #CPEC #economy #PTI https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-agree...
China on Wednesday acceded to Pakistan's request to rollover a whopping $4.2 billion debt repayment to provide a major relief for its all-weather ally, which is reeling under major economic crisis.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in his meeting with Pakistan counterpart Shah Mehmood Qureshi on the sidelines of the 3rd meeting of the 'Foreign Ministers of Neighbouring Countries of Afghanistan' in China's eastern Anhui province has conveyed Beijing's decision to rollover the debt.
In a video message, Qureshi said Wang has conveyed China's decision to rollover Pakistan $4.2 billion to enable Islamabad to tide over the current economic crisis.
"I am immensely happy to share that the Chinese FM has given a nod of approval on the rollover of commercial loan as well," Qureshi was quoted as saying by Pakistan daily Dawn.
The USD 4.2 billion debt, which was maturing this week, has been rolled over providing major financial relief to Pakistan, the daily reported.
"The procedural formalities are being completed by relevant authorities. An announcement will be made as soon as they're sorted," Qureshi said.
The request for rollover was reportedly made by Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping here last month to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
Pakistan continues to undergo a huge economic crisis despite heavy investment by China in the $60 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In addition to Pakistan, Sri Lanka, a major recipient of Chinese loans and investments, too has asked China to reschedule its debt as it is going into a crippling financial crisis.
China is considering a fresh request from Sri Lanka for a loan of USD one billion and a credit line of USD 1.5 billion, Chinese Ambassador to Sri Lanka Qi Zhenhong told the media in Colombo last week. He, however, was silent about Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa's request for rescheduling of debt repayments.
Mar 30, 2022
Riaz Haq
Pakistan’s economy created 5.5 million jobs during the past three years –on an average 1.84 million jobs a year, which is far higher than yearly average of creation of new jobs during the 2008-18 decade, reveals findings of Labour Force Survey (LFS) published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2350416/employment-boom-in-last-3-years
In terms of sector, the share of agriculture sector in total employment went down from 38.5% from three years ago to 37.4%. But the share of the industrial sector increased from 23.7% to 25.4%. The services sector share in employment also decreased from nearly 38% to 37.2%.
In absolute terms, during the past three years about 2.5 million jobs were created in the industrial sector compared with 2.1 million created during the five-year PML-N tenure. Another 1.4 million jobs were created in the agriculture sector and 1.7 million in the services sector. During the PML-N tenure around 4.3 million jobs had been created in the services sector.
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the Sindh province remained an exception where unemployment rate significantly went down to just 3.9% in three years as the unemployment rate increased in all other three provinces –the highest one recorded at 8.8% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) during the last fiscal year, according to Labour Force Survey 2020-21.
The national unemployment rate stood at 6.3% at the end of the last fiscal year, which is better than the preceding year but higher than 5.8% recorded at the end of the PML-N tenure, according to the survey conducted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The Planning Ministry and the PBS have not yet officially released the survey.
The survey findings were endorsed on Wednesday by a technical committee, comprising official and independent experts, according to the officials of the Ministry of Planning and Development. The PBS covered 6,808 enumeration blocks and 99,904 households for the survey purposes.
The findings showed that the number of employed people increased to 67.3 million by June 2021 –up from 61.7 million at the end of the PML-N tenure.
However, the official unemployment rate that in June 2018 was 5.8% went up to 6.3% at the end of the third year of the PTI rule. The unemployment rate was the lowest in Sindh at 3.9% that is ruled by the Pakistan Peoples Party but it was highest in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at 8.8%, followed by 6.8% in Punjab –the two provinces governed by the ruling party.
A key reason for an overall low unemployment rate of 6.3% was inclusion of contributing family workers in the definition of the employed people whose share in total employment was above one-fifth. The share of employers remained unchanged at 1.4% in three years. The employees also went down from 42.4% to 42% in three years but own-account workers' share went up to 35.5%, according to the survey.
During 2018-23, on an average 1.84 million jobs a year were created –far better than the yearly average recorded during the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz and the PPP governments, according to the survey’s findings.
During the five year of the PPP (2008-13), about 6.9 million jobs had been created with a yearly average of 1.4 million. Compared to this, during the PML-N 2013-18’s tenure, about 5.7 million jobs had been created with an average of 1.14 million a year.
The average economic growth rate during the PML-N five years rule was significantly higher than the average growth rate during the PTI tenure. For the first time in the past 70 years, the country had also witnessed 1% contraction in the Gross Domestic Product during the fiscal year 2019-20 when the world was struck by the global pandemic.
The survey findings revealed that the sectoral contributions in job creation were uneven and the majority of the new jobs had been created in the industrial sector.
Prime Minister Imran Khan had promised to create 10 million jobs during his government tenure and the creation of 5.5 million jobs suggested that the economy might generate a total 9 million jobs by 2023 at the current rate.
Mar 31, 2022
Riaz Haq
University of #Chicago International Relations Professor John Mearsheimer: “No country has a richer history of political interference in other countries than the #US” | Why #America foreign policies badly failed. #ImranKhan #Pakistan https://youtu.be/LW9S9XVjjLM via @YouTube
Apr 1, 2022
Riaz Haq
From Arif Habib Securities:
Pakistan Economy
Rebased and revised GDPg at 5.57% for FY21 20-Jan-2022
The National Accounts Committee (NAC), in its 104th meeting, reviewed the change of base of National Accounts from 2005-06 to 2015-16. With this revision, the final estimates of GDP growth of FY21 came out to be 5.57% (provisional: 5.37%). This number—especially the quantum of rate of growth during trying times—is striking, part of an impressive growth performance that gov’t projects to continue in the medium term. A few key areas mentioned in the NAC’s press release are as follows:
The committee reviewed and approved the rebased series from 2015-16 to 2020-21 on the prices of 2015-16.
Revised GDP growth rates at Constant Prices on new base of 2015-16 stand at 5.57% (old base: 5.37%)
Revised sectoral growth rates are:
Agriculture: 3.48% (provisional est.: 2.77%) Industrial: 7.79% (provisional est.: 3.57%) Services: 5.70% (provisional est.: 4.43%)
The GDP at market prices increased to PKR 55.5trn in FY21 while Gross National Income increased to PKR 59.3trn with the rebasing of numbers.
During FY21, the Per Capita Income increased to PKR 266,614 and in USD 1,666.
In dollar terms, the size of the economy reached to USD 346.76bn.
Apr 2, 2022