Will Gwadar Grow to Become a Major Metropolis Like Shenzhen?

"We believe Gwadar is following in the footsteps of Shenzhen which represented a historic population rise, from a population of 30,000 in 1980 to 11 million people in 2017. Gwadar is poised to see massive population growth due to incoming industries, and we expect this to be one of the most strategic cities in South Asia." Hao-Yeh Chang,  China Pak Investments Corporation

Gwadar: The Next Shenzhen?

Gwadar is booming. It's being called the next Shenzhen by some and the next Hong Kong by others as an emerging new port city in the region to rival Dubai. Land prices in Gwadar are skyrocketing, according to media reports. Gwadar Airport air traffic growth of 73% was the fastest of all airports in Pakistan where overall air traffic grew by 23% last year, according to Anna Aero publication.  A new international airport is now being built in Gwadar to handle soaring passenger and cargo traffic.

Recent Aerial View of Gwadar Hammerhead Growth

Gwadar Property Boom:

The volume of Gwadar property searches surged 14-fold on Pakistan’s largest real estate database, Zameen.com, between 2014 and 2016, up from a prior rate of a few hundred a month. “It’s like a gold rush,” said Chief Executive Zeeshan Ali Khan to an Express Tribune newspaper reporter. “Anyone who is interested in real estate, be it an investor or a developer, is eyeing Gwadar.”

Chinese private investment company China Pak Investment Corporation has recently announced it is acquiring 3.6 million square foot International Port City project in Gwadar. It plans to develop a $150 million gated community to handle the influx of 500,000 Chinese professionals expected in Gwadar by 2022.

Proposed Gwadar International Airport

China Pak Investment Announcement:

On October 20, 2017, Pakistan's Geo TV news reported that China Pak Investment Company plans to increase its commitment to  invest $500 million in Gwadar in the first phase of a project aimed at building homes for around 500,000 incoming Chinese professionals expected in Gwadar by 2023. An earlier September 29, 2017 press release by China Pak Investment Corporation said as follows:

"The final master plan for China Pak Hills is currently being refined in Hong Kong, and will feature a range of state-of-the-art amenities including an open-air shopping boulevard; indoor shopping mall; restaurants and eateries; an international school and nursery; six community parks; indoor and outdoor sports facilities including tennis courts and a resident's gymnasium; a water desalination plant and recycling centre. China Pak Hills will also be home to the Gwadar Financial District, catering to the growing financial sector and adding much needed A Grade office space to Gwadar's growing market."

Gwadar Port Development:

Gwadar port's planned capacity when it is completed will be 300 to 400 million tons of cargo annually.  It is comparable to the capacity of all of India's ports combined annual capacity of 500 million tons of cargo today.   It is far larger than the 10-12 million tons cargo handling capacity planned for Chabahar.

To put Gwadar's scale in perspective, let's compare it with the largest US port of Long Beach which handles 80 million tons of cargo, about a quarter of what Gwadar will handle upon completion of the project. Gawadar port will be capable of handling the world's largest container ships and massive oil tankers.

Gawadar port is being built in Pakistan by the Chinese as part of the ambitious $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that will eventually serve as Hong Kong West for  growing Chinese trade with the Middle East and Europe.  CPEC will also enable Pakistan to bypass Afghanistan to trade with Central Asia through China across China's borders with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.

India's Strong Opposition: 

Pakistan suspects that India's real objective in Afghanistan and Iran is to locate its intelligence agents under the cover of Chabahar port construction workers to sabotage China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and support Baloch insurgency to destabilize Pakistan. These suspicions were strengthened when Indian spy Kulbhushan Yadav, operating under the fake name Husain Mubarak Patel, was arrested in Balochistan in March, 2016. Yadav confessed he was operating as an undercover RAW agent from his base in Chabahar, Iran. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made no secret of his strong opposition to CPEC and his support for Baloch insurgents.

Chinese Commitment to Pakistan: 

Unlike US-Pakistan ties that have been essentially of a transactional nature, Pakistan-China relationship appears to truly strategic.  A recent book "The China Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics" by American policy analyst Andrew Small quotes a top Chinese official as saying to his American counterparts that "Pakistan is China's Israel". Earlier, in 2011, some news reports quoted Chinese officials as warning that "any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China".  Growing Chinese investment commitments in Pakistan now exceed $100 billion, a further indication of the importance China attaches to Pakistan as one of its closest allies.

Summary:

China-Pakistan ties appear to be truly strategic.  The strength of Chinese commitment to Pakistan is increasing with growing investments in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor related projects. It is now highly visible in terms of the influx of the Chinese money and citizens into Pakistan. China's actions on the ground reinforce the credibility of Chinese officials' reported quotes describing Pakistan as "China's Israel" and warnings to the United States that "any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China".

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  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan courts US with pitch for new Arabian Sea port ( at Pasni for critical minerals export)

    https://www.ft.com/content/9f7c7bf2-76ed-4eb6-bb9a-f628d05b0068

    Late last month, Pakistan shipped a modest first consignment of fewer than two tonnes of critical and rare earth minerals to USSM that included copper, antimony and neodymium. The price of antimony has soared since Beijing imposed a ban on selling it to the US late last year.

    Advisers to Pakistan’s military strongman Asim Munir have approached US officials with an offer to build and run a port on the Arabian Sea that could give Washington a foothold in one of the world’s most sensitive regions. The audacious plan, seen by the Financial Times, envisages American investors developing the seaside fishing town of Pasni as a terminal for access to Pakistan’s critical minerals. Pasni is just 100 miles from Iran and 70 miles from the Pakistani city of Gwadar, which has a China-backed port. The initiative, which is not official policy, reflects how Pakistani officials are exploring ways to capitalise on the sweeping geopolitical upheaval in South Asia of recent months.

    The offer has been floated with some US officials, and was shared with Munir ahead of a meeting with Donald Trump in the White House late last month, according to two civilian advisers to the army chief who both asked not to be named. But a senior Trump administration official said the US president and his advisers had not discussed such a proposal.

    The scheme is one of several ideas floated publicly and privately by Pakistani officials to maintain momentum with the Trump administration. They include engagement with a Trump-backed crypto venture, deepening co-operation against Afghanistan-based militant group Isis-K, endorsement of his Gaza peace plan and access to critical minerals.

    Munir and Trump have forged what US and Pakistani diplomats are referring to as “a bromance” since the American president claimed credit in May for a ceasefire that ended the worst fighting between Pakistan and India in decades.

    After two decades of warming ties with India, the US has over the summer publicly sparred with New Delhi. While India has rejected Trump’s claims of involvement in the ceasefire, Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have publicly thanked him and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

    In return, Trump has lavished praise on Pakistan’s army chief. After their latest meeting last month, the White House released pictures of Munir and Sharif presenting the US leader with a display case of mineral samples.

    “The whole narrative [of the US-Pakistan] relationship changed after the war,” said one of the advisers, who has been involved in back-channel contacts with the Trump circle for more than a year.

    “It was very bad before then. We had not tended the relationship as we should have,” the adviser said. “In the last two decades the Indians occupied the space in the vacuum.”

    The proposed port at Pasni would be linked to a new railway to transport minerals from Pakistan’s interior, the advisers said, in particular copper and antimony, a vital ingredient in batteries, fire-retardant and missiles.

    A blueprint anticipated the port would cost up to $1.2bn with a proposed financing model that would be a mix of Pakistani federal and US-backed development finance. Advocates of the plan see it as a way of hedging the country’s position on the global stage as it seeks to balance a constellation of diplomatic ties with China, the US, Iran and Saudi Arabia, with which Islamabad signed a security pact last month.

    “Pasni’s proximity to Iran and Central Asia enhances US options for trade and security . . . Engagement at Pasni would counterbalance Gwadar . . . and expand US influence in the Arabian Sea and Central Asia,” according to the blueprint.

    “China’s Gwadar investments under the Belt and Road Initiative raise dual-use concerns,” it added, in an apparent allusion to US concerns Gwadar could serve as a Chinese naval base, a suggestion denied by Islamabad and Beijing.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan government approves new Gwadar shipyard project - Maritime Gateway

    https://www.maritimegateway.com/pakistan-government-approves-new-gw...

    Under the directives of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the government has approved the “New Gwadar Shipyard Mega Project” and activated the Project Management Cell (PMC). It aims at utilising all available resources for laying down fresh foundation of all-inclusive development of Gwadar Port under CPEC phase II. Having allocated Rs 200 million for the formation of PMC, relevant appointments will be sought to run entire affairs as per prescribed SOPs. The ‘New Modern Shipyard’ in Gwadar will incentivize commercial shipbuilding and repair industry, create new jobs and spur economic growth, according to Gwadar Port Authority.

    Since land disagreement issue is all set to be resolved relevant TORs, tenders will be floated seeking international companies to participate. GPA had demarcated 750 acres of land for the new shipyard project. Apart from offering essential dry-docking facilities to the cargo ships visiting Gwadar Port, the Gwadar Shipyard would also offer services for building new ships.

    The project expected to be started this year, and employment opportunities will be provided to experts and workers from Balochistan on the project on priority. Gwadar Shipyard Mega Project would be equipped with the latest technology, and this international standard project could give Pakistan a prominent place among the world-class shipyards.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan $100 billion maritime plan


    https://www.arabnews.com/node/2621610/pakistan

    KARACHI: Pakistan is implementing a $100 billion maritime development plan aimed at expanding its national shipping fleet, building new ship repair and recycling facilities, overhauling fisheries and upgrading maritime education, Maritime Affairs Minister Muhammad Junaid Anwar Chaudhry said on Thursday.

    Pakistan has a 1,046-km coastline along a major global trade route, but its maritime economy has remained underdeveloped for decades, with limited commercial fleet capacity, outdated port infrastructure and declining seafood exports. Successive governments have identified the blue economy as a potential driver of growth, energy security and climate resilience, but investment and execution have lagged.

    “Under the Prime Minister’s guidance, the Ministry of Maritime Affairs is implementing the ‘Maritime @100’ vision, a $100 billion blue economy plan by 2047,” Chaudhry said at the closing ceremony of the flagship Pakistan International Maritime Exhibition and Conference (PIMEC) in Karachi.

    “The sea is our next frontier for trade, prosperity, energy, food and climate resilience,” he said. “Pakistan’s future lies in the sea.”

    As part of the plan, Pakistan’s first Green Ship Repair and Recycling Yard will be established at Port Qasim, one of the country’s main commercial ports near Karachi that already hosts major steel and industrial facilities. The project will be developed as part of an integrated “Sea to Steel Maritime Industrial Complex” designed to support the revival of Pakistan Steel Mills, the state-owned steelmaker that has remained largely non-operational for years.

    Chaudhry said the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) fleet has increased from 10 to 12 ships, with three more expected within two months. Tenders for 12 additional vessels are underway, with the fleet targeted to reach 30 ships by 2026 and 60 within three years.

    He said Pakistan had also granted its first private ferry operator license, opening sea routes for passenger movement and coastal trade.

    On Gaddani, one of the world’s largest ship-breaking yards long criticized for unsafe conditions and environmental pollution, the minister said a Rs12 billion ($43 million) modernization program is underway to meet Hong Kong Convention safety and environmental standards, shifting toward cleaner and more regulated recycling capacity.

    Chaudhry said the National Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy 2025–2035 has been finalized, targeting a doubling of seafood exports within one year through upgraded cold-chain logistics, traceability certification and deep-sea fishing capacity.

    A Maritime Education Endowment Fund has also been created, and the Pakistan Marine Academy will be upgraded into a Maritime University to train seafarers, marine engineers, technologists and ocean science specialists.

    The minister said the government’s century-long maritime strategy, termed “Maritime Century (2047–2147),” envisions developing new deep-sea ports, AI-enabled shipbuilding and recycling complexes, “Made-in-Pakistan” vessels and 100 percent green and digital ports with multimodal connectivity.

    By 2047, Pakistan aimed to emerge as a global blue economy hub driving sustainable growth across the North Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, the minister concluded.